2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Indiana.svg
  2008 May 3, 2016 (2016-05-03) 2020  
  Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count4439
Popular vote335,074 [1] 303,705
Percentage52.46%47.54%

2016 Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Election results by county.

The 2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary took place on May 3 in the U.S. state of Indiana as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

The Republican Party held their own Indiana primary on the same day. Other primaries were not held that day.

Opinion polling

List of polls

Delegate count: 83 Pledged, 9 Unpledged Winner: Star.svg Bernie Sanders
Primary date: May 3, 2016

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Official Primary Results [2] May 3, 2016Bernie Sanders
52.5%
Hillary Clinton
47.5%
ARG [3]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

April 27–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [4]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 645

April 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
4%
IPFW/Mike Downs Center [5]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

April 13–27, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
IPFW/Downs Center [6]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

April 18–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
5%
CBS/YouGov [7]

Margin of error: ± 8.2%
Sample size: 439

April 20–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
7%
FOX News [8]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 603

April 18–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
12%
WTHR News [9]

Margin of error: ± 4.47%
Sample size: 500

April 18–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
45%
Others / Undecided
7%

Results

Indiana Democratic primary, May 3, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders 335,07452.46%44044
Hillary Clinton 303,70547.54%39746
Uncommitted022
Total638,779100%83992
Source: [10]

Analysis

Sanders managed a five-percentage point upset win in Indiana, despite not leading in a single poll ahead of the primary. He won men 57–43, tied women with Clinton 50-50, beat Clinton 68-32 among voters under the age of 45, and won a resounding 59–41 victory with white voters, who made up 71% of the Democratic electorate in Indiana. He also won self-identified Independents 72-28 and won across all income levels. Clinton performed best with African Americans who she won 74–26, and older voters who she won 60–40.

Sanders performed well statewide in Indiana, winning most of the rural counties. He performed well in Marion County, winning 51-49 according to exit polls. Marion contains the state capital and largest city of Indianapolis, and the Indianapolis Suburbs which he won 56–44. Sanders won Northeast Indiana, which is anchored in Allen County by Fort Wayne. Sanders carried East Central Indiana and Northern Indiana. He carried St. Joseph County which contains South Bend and University of Notre Dame by a wide margin, likely thanks to his support from younger voters. He also won Monroe County which contains the city of Bloomington which is home to Indiana University. Sanders also won Vanderburgh County which contains Evansville as well as Vigo County which contains Terre Haute.

Clinton won Lake County in Northwest Indiana (a region she won by a narrow 51–49) which contains the heavily African American city of Gary and is a part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area, and performed well in Southern Indiana along the Ohio River with neighboring Kentucky.

References

  1. The Green Papers - Official Primary Results
  2. Official Primary Results
  3. "American Research Group, Inc" . Retrieved April 29, 2016.
  4. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll May 2016 Indiana Questionnaire" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 8, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
  5. "1) Cruz Ahead in Indiana 2) Clinton Leads 3) Young Edging Stutzman but Many Yet to Decide" (PDF). Retrieved April 30, 2016.
  6. "IPFW poll: Hoosiers like Clinton" . Retrieved April 29, 2016.
  7. "Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". CBS News . April 24, 2016. Retrieved April 24, 2016.
  8. "Fox News Poll: Indiana Presidential Primaries". Fox News. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
  9. "Exclusive WTHR/HPI Poll: Trump, Clinton have small leads in Indiana, overall tight race". WTHR News. April 22, 2016. Archived from the original on April 23, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
  10. The Green Papers - Official Primary Results