2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
←  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  →
Turnout64.58% [1] Increase2.svg
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,729,8571,242,498
Percentage57.03%40.96%
Indiana Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
IN-20-pres-districts.svg
IN President 2020.svg
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state. [4] On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likely red state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.

This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884 to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County. [5]

Biden flipped Tippecanoe County, [6] home to Lafayette and Purdue University, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since 1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden also became the first Democrat since FDR in 1944 to win without carrying traditionally Democratic Perry County in Southern Indiana. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976. Trump also became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to carry exurban Madison County with more than 60% of the vote.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. [7]

Democratic primary

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary § Results.[ edit ]

2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary [8]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [9]
Joe Biden 380,83676.4880
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)67,68813.592
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)17,9573.61
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)14,3442.88
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)4,7830.96
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)4,4260.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)3,8600.78
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)2,6570.53
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)1,3760.28
Total497,927100%82

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary

The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020. [10]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [11] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Inside Elections [12] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Politico [14] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
RCP [15] Lean ROctober 6, 2020
Niskanen [16] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CNN [17] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
The Economist [18] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CBS News [19] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
270towin [20] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
ABC News [21] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
NPR [22] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
NBC News [23] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
538 [24] Safe ROctober 6, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win [25] October 14 - November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%51.0%7.0%Trump +9.0
FiveThirtyEight [26] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%52.9%5.1%

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,729 (LV)± 2.5%54% [c] 44%–––
Swayable [28] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020264 (LV)± 7.8%55%43%2%––
Morning Consult [29] Oct 22–31, 20201,147 (LV)± 3%53%42%–––
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Oct 1–28, 20204,734 (LV)–55%43%–––
Swayable [30] Oct 23–26, 2020301 (LV)± 7.4%53%42%5%––
Ragnar Research (R) [31] Oct 18–21, 2020529 (LV)± 4%48%40%5%–7%
SurveyUSA/Election Twitter [32] Oct 10–13, 2020527 (LV)± 5.2%49%42%–3%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Sep 1–30, 20202,367 (LV)–53%45%–––
Change Research/IndyPolitics [33] Sep 3–7, 20201,033 (LV)± 3.1%53%39%5%–3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Aug 1–31, 20201,672 (LV)–55%43%–––
Morning Consult [34] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 [d] 900 (LV)± 3.5%55%38%–––
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Jul 1–31, 20202,175 (LV)–56%43%–––
SurveyMonkey/Axios [27] Jun 8–30, 2020929 (LV)–57%40%–––
Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General [35] [A] May 21–23, 2020894 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%–––
Indy Politics/Change Research [36] Apr 10–13, 20201,021 (LV)± 3.1%52%39%–5%3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Undecided
Zogby Analytics [37] Aug 17–23, 2017603 (LV)± 4.0%45%39%17%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		1,729,857 57.03% Increase2.svg 0.09%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,242,49840.96%Increase2.svg 3.19%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		58,9011.94%Decrease2.svg 2.96%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)		9890.03%Decrease2.svg 0.26%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)		8950.03%N/A
Write-in 700.00%Decrease2.svg 0.03%
Total votes3,033,210 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 10,68675.05%3,23622.73%3172.22%7,45052.32%14,239
Allen 92,08354.31%73,18943.16%4,2882.53%18,89411.15%169,560
Bartholomew 22,41061.74%12,93435.63%9562.63%9,47626.11%36,300
Benton 3,00773.07%1,00924.52%992.41%1,99848.55%4,115
Blackford 3,84171.69%1,37625.68%1412.63%2,46546.01%5,358
Boone 22,35157.80%15,24439.42%1,0732.78%7,10718.38%38,668
Brown 5,77764.32%3,03633.80%1681.88%2,74130.52%8,981
Carroll 7,08674.48%2,22423.38%2042.14%4,86251.10%9,514
Cass 10,55269.43%4,30428.32%3422.25%6,24841.11%15,198
Clark 33,66857.99%23,09339.78%1,2962.23%10,57518.21%58,057
Clay 9,49977.35%2,55220.78%2201.87%6,94756.57%12,281
Clinton 9,33472.02%3,36125.93%2662.05%5,97346.09%12,961
Crawford 3,48370.39%1,35527.38%1102.23%2,12843.01%4,948
Daviess 9,57679.99%2,16918.12%2261.89%7,40761.87%11,971
Dearborn 19,52876.78%5,44621.41%4601.81%14,08255.37%25,434
Decatur 9,57577.82%2,43919.82%2902.36%7,13658.00%12,304
DeKalb 14,23772.43%4,96625.26%4532.31%9,27147.17%19,656
Delaware 26,82755.49%20,47442.35%1,0412.16%6,35313.14%48,342
Dubois 15,03368.94%6,29228.85%4812.21%8,74140.09%21,806
Elkhart 46,97262.95%26,10834.99%1,5382.06%20,86427.96%74,618
Fayette 7,75576.43%2,23722.05%1541.52%5,51854.38%10,146
Floyd 23,40055.85%17,51141.79%9882.36%5,88914.06%41,899
Fountain 6,15476.99%1,62920.38%2102.63%4,52556.61%7,993
Franklin 9,69180.64%2,13717.78%1901.58%7,55462.86%12,018
Fulton 6,69473.18%2,28024.93%1731.89%4,41448.25%9,147
Gibson 11,81773.12%4,02324.89%3211.99%7,79448.23%16,161
Grant 18,54368.10%8,01529.43%6722.47%10,52838.67%27,230
Greene 11,10374.98%3,38922.89%3152.13%7,71452.09%14,807
Hamilton 101,58752.21%88,39045.43%4,6002.36%13,1976.78%194,577
Hancock 28,99667.40%12,89529.97%1,1292.63%16,10137.43%43,020
Harrison 14,56571.98%5,34326.40%3281.62%9,22245.58%20,236
Hendricks 53,80260.65%32,60436.76%2,2992.59%21,19823.89%88,705
Henry 15,04371.43%5,54426.32%4742.25%9,49945.11%21,061
Howard 26,44965.10%13,30332.74%8782.16%13,14632.36%40,630
Huntington 13,14773.57%4,25523.81%4682.62%8,89249.76%17,870
Jackson 14,55575.66%4,30222.36%3811.98%10,25353.30%19,238
Jasper 11,38373.56%3,79824.54%2941.90%7,58549.02%15,475
Jay 6,36175.14%1,92622.75%1792.11%4,43552.39%8,466
Jefferson 9,66365.60%4,73132.12%3362.28%4,93233.48%14,730
Jennings 9,49077.29%2,52320.55%2652.16%6,96756.74%12,278
Johnson 51,21965.83%24,73631.79%1,8472.38%26,48334.04%77,802
Knox 11,65572.72%4,06725.37%3061.91%7,58847.35%16,028
Kosciusko 26,49973.85%8,36423.31%1,0212.84%18,13550.54%35,884
LaGrange 8,11076.14%2,35522.11%1871.75%5,75554.03%10,652
Lake 91,76041.65%124,87056.67%3,7001.68%-33,110-15.02%220,330
LaPorte 25,99752.54%22,42745.32%1,0592.14%3,5707.22%49,483
Lawrence 15,60174.04%4,96123.54%5092.42%10,64050.50%21,071
Madison 31,21560.16%19,52437.63%1,1512.21%11,69122.53%51,890
Marion 134,17534.30%247,77263.35%9,1872.35%-113,597-29.05%391,134
Marshall 13,84469.38%5,71228.63%3971.99%8,13240.75%19,953
Martin 4,02978.16%1,01119.61%1152.23%3,01858.55%5,155
Miami 10,92575.38%3,23522.32%3332.30%7,69053.06%14,493
Monroe 22,07134.95%39,86163.12%1,2191.93%-17,790-28.17%63,151
Montgomery 12,65973.61%4,21324.50%3261.89%8,44649.11%17,198
Morgan 27,51275.96%7,78121.48%9282.56%19,73154.48%36,221
Newton 4,94274.78%1,50922.83%1582.39%3,43351.95%6,609
Noble 14,19573.87%4,66024.25%3621.88%9,53549.62%19,217
Ohio 2,39275.60%75023.70%220.70%1,64251.90%3,164
Orange 6,43272.73%2,22425.15%1882.12%4,20847.58%8,844
Owen 7,28673.47%2,42024.40%2112.13%4,86649.07%9,917
Parke 5,40076.90%1,50321.40%1191.70%3,89755.50%7,022
Perry 5,34561.18%3,20336.66%1892.16%2,14224.52%8,737
Pike 4,69275.37%1,41522.73%1181.90%3,27752.64%6,225
Porter 45,00851.87%39,74645.81%2,0142.32%5,2626.06%86,768
Posey 9,20969.38%3,81728.76%2471.86%5,39240.62%13,273
Pulaski 4,24673.04%1,46325.17%1041.79%2,78347.87%5,813
Putnam 12,27873.86%3,94623.74%3992.40%8,33250.12%16,623
Randolph 8,31275.02%2,51322.68%2542.30%5,79952.34%11,079
Ripley 11,26178.79%2,77419.41%2571.80%8,48759.38%14,292
Rush 6,03576.00%1,75422.09%1521.91%4,28153.91%7,941
Scott 7,33172.00%2,70126.53%1501.47%4,63045.47%10,182
Shelby 14,56872.78%5,02325.09%4262.13%9,54547.69%20,017
Spencer 7,35768.19%3,21329.78%2192.03%4,14438.41%10,789
St. Joseph 53,16446.13%59,89651.98%2,1781.89%-6,732-5.85%115,238
Starke 7,46972.42%2,65125.71%1931.87%4,81846.71%10,313
Steuben 11,32769.99%4,51327.89%3442.12%6,81442.10%16,184
Sullivan 6,69174.28%2,15323.90%1641.82%4,53850.38%9,008
Switzerland 3,13375.33%96423.18%621.49%2,16952.15%4,159
Tippecanoe 34,58148.15%35,01748.75%2,2263.10%-436-0.60%71,824
Tipton 6,11075.21%1,83422.58%1802.21%4,27652.63%8,124
Union 2,68876.98%73621.08%681.94%1,95255.90%3,492
Vanderburgh 41,84453.88%34,41544.31%1,4031.81%7,4299.57%77,662
Vermillion 5,18469.21%2,14528.64%1612.15%3,03940.57%7,490
Vigo 24,54556.17%18,12341.47%1,0302.36%6,42214.70%43,698
Wabash 10,76273.72%3,49423.93%3422.35%7,26849.79%14,598
Warren 3,40176.03%97421.78%982.19%2,42754.25%4,473
Warrick 21,32662.93%11,92335.18%6411.89%9,40327.75%33,890
Washington 9,11475.08%2,78422.93%2411.99%6,33052.15%12,139
Wayne 17,56763.47%9,52434.41%5882.12%8,04329.06%27,679
Wells 10,85577.10%2,92820.80%2972.10%7,92756.30%14,080
White 7,95771.13%3,03227.10%1981.77%4,92544.03%11,187
Whitley 12,86273.13%4,23424.07%4922.80%8,62849.06%17,588
Totals1,729,86356.91%1,242,50540.87%67,4132.22%487,35816.04%3,039,781

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Indiana County Swing 2020.svg
Indiana County Trend 2020.svg
Indiana County Flips 2020.svg

By congressional district

Trump and Republican candidates won 7 of 9 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 44.8%53.6% Frank J. Mrvan
2nd 59.4%38.9% Jackie Walorski
3rd 63.9%34% Jim Banks
4th 63.8%34% Jim Baird
5th 50.1%47.9% Victoria Spartz
6th 68.8%29.1% Greg Pence
7th 35.3%62.9% André Carson
8th 65.1%33.1% Larry Bucshon
9th 60.8%37.2% Trey Hollingsworth

Analysis

Biden significantly reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county. [39] Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for 1912, when the split in the Republicans allowed Woodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality. [5] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for John McCain in 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana. Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even Lyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. [5] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)

References

  1. ↑ "Indiana Election Results" . Retrieved February 9, 2025.
  2. ↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ↑ "Indiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. 1 2 3 "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. 1 2 "Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election". The Republican . March 17, 2021. Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Indiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. ↑ "Past Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  9. ↑ "June 2 contests – Live primary and caucus results, Indiana". Reuters. July 16, 2020. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  10. ↑ "2020 Presidential Primary Voting". Indiana Green Party. Retrieved April 28, 2020.[ permanent dead link ]
  11. ↑ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ↑ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  15. ↑ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  16. ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  17. ↑ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. ↑ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  21. ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. ↑ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. ↑ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived from the original on August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. ↑ 270 to Win
  26. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 SurveyMonkey/Axios
  28. ↑ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  29. ↑ Morning Consult
  30. ↑ Swayable
  31. ↑ Ragnar Research (R)
  32. ↑ SurveyUSA/Election Twitter
  33. ↑ Change Research/IndyPolitics
  34. ↑ Morning Consult
  35. ↑ Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General
  36. ↑ Indy Politics/Change Research
  37. ↑ Zogby Analytics
  38. ↑ "Federal Elections 2020" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. October 2022.
  39. ↑ "Indiana Counties by Population".

Further reading

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