2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

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2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout61.37% [1] Increase2.svg
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,729,5191,242,416
Percentage57.02%40.96%

Indiana Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
IN-20-pres-districts.svg
IN President 2020.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state. [4] On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likely red state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.

This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884, to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County. [5]

Biden also became the first Democrat since FDR in 1944 to win without carrying traditionally Democratic Perry County in Southern Indiana. Biden did flip Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since 1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976. Trump also became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to carry exurban Madison County with more than 60% of the vote.

Notably, Biden reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county. [6] Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for 1912, when the split in the Republicans allowed Woodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality. [5] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for John McCain in 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana. Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even Lyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. [5] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. [7]

Democratic primary

2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary [8]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [9]
Joe Biden 380,83676.4880
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)67,68813.592
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)17,9573.61
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)14,3442.88
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)4,7830.96
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)4,4260.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)3,8600.78
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)2,6570.53
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)1,3760.28
Total497,927100%82

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary

The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020. [10]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [11] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Inside Elections [12] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
Politico [14] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
RCP [15] Lean ROctober 6, 2020
Niskanen [16] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CNN [17] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
The Economist [18] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
CBS News [19] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
270towin [20] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
ABC News [21] Safe ROctober 6, 2020
NPR [22] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
NBC News [23] Likely ROctober 6, 2020
538 [24] Safe ROctober 6, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win October 14 - November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%51.0%7.0%Trump +9.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%52.9%5.1%

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,729 (LV)± 2.5%54% [lower-alpha 3] 44%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020264 (LV)± 7.8%55%43%2%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 20201,147 (LV)± 3%53%42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 20204,734 (LV)55%43%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020301 (LV)± 7.4%53%42%5%
Ragnar Research (R) Oct 18–21, 2020529 (LV)± 4%48%40%5%7%
SurveyUSA/Election Twitter Oct 10–13, 2020527 (LV)± 5.2%49%42%3%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 20202,367 (LV)53%45%
Change Research/IndyPolitics Sep 3–7, 20201,033 (LV)± 3.1%53%39%5%3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 20201,672 (LV)55%43%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] 900 (LV)± 3.5%55%38%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 20202,175 (LV)56%43%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020929 (LV)57%40%
Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General [upper-alpha 1] May 21–23, 2020894 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%
Indy Politics/Change Research Apr 10–13, 20201,021 (LV)± 3.1%52%39%5%3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017603 (LV)± 4.0%45%39%17%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent)
1,729,519 57.02% +0.55%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,242,41640.96%+3.5%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
59,2321.95%−2.9%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
9880.03%−0.3%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)
8930.03%N/A
Write-in 700.00%+0.0%
Total votes3,033,118 100.0%

Results by county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 10,68675.05%3,23622.73%3172.22%7,45052.32%14,239
Allen 92,08354.31%73,18943.16%4,2882.53%18,89411.15%169,560
Bartholomew 22,41061.74%12,93435.63%9562.63%9,47626.11%36,300
Benton 3,00773.07%1,00924.52%992.41%1,99848.55%4,115
Blackford 3,84171.69%1,37625.68%1412.63%2,46546.01%5,358
Boone 22,35157.80%15,24439.42%1,0732.78%7,10718.38%38,668
Brown 5,77764.32%3,03633.80%1681.88%2,74130.52%8,981
Carroll 7,08674.48%2,22423.38%2042.14%4,86251.10%9,514
Cass 10,55269.43%4,30428.32%3422.25%6,24841.11%15,198
Clark 33,66857.99%23,09339.78%1,2962.23%10,57518.21%58,057
Clay 9,49977.35%2,55220.78%2201.87%6,94756.57%12,281
Clinton 9,33472.02%3,36125.93%2662.05%5,97346.09%12,961
Crawford 3,48370.39%1,35527.38%1102.23%2,12843.01%4,948
Daviess 9,57679.99%2,16918.12%2261.89%7,40761.87%11,971
Dearborn 19,52876.78%5,44621.41%4601.81%14,08255.37%25,434
Decatur 9,57577.82%2,43919.82%2902.36%7,13658.00%12,304
DeKalb 14,23772.43%4,96625.26%4532.31%9,27147.17%19,656
Delaware 26,82755.49%20,47442.35%1,0412.16%6,35313.14%48,342
Dubois 15,03368.94%6,29228.85%4812.21%8,74140.09%21,806
Elkhart 46,97262.95%26,10834.99%1,5382.06%20,86427.96%74,618
Fayette 7,75576.43%2,23722.05%1541.52%5,51854.38%10,146
Floyd 23,40055.85%17,51141.79%9882.36%5,88914.06%41,899
Fountain 6,15476.99%1,62920.38%2102.63%4,52556.61%7,993
Franklin 9,69180.64%2,13717.78%1901.58%7,55462.86%12,018
Fulton 6,69473.18%2,28024.93%1731.89%4,41448.25%9,147
Gibson 11,81773.12%4,02324.89%3211.99%7,79448.23%16,161
Grant 18,54368.10%8,01529.43%6722.47%10,52838.67%27,230
Greene 11,10374.98%3,38922.89%3152.13%7,61452.09%14,807
Hamilton 101,58752.21%88,39045.43%4,6002.36%13,1976.78%194,577
Hancock 28,99667.40%12,89529.97%1,1292.63%16,10137.43%43,020
Harrison 14,56571.98%5,34326.40%3281.62%9,22245.58%20,236
Hendricks 53,80260.65%32,60436.76%2,2992.59%21,19823.89%88,705
Henry 15,04371.43%5,54426.32%4742.25%9,49945.11%21,061
Howard 26,44965.10%13,30332.74%8782.16%13,14632.36%40,630
Huntington 13,14773.57%4,25523.81%4682.62%8,89249.76%17,870
Jackson 14,55575.66%4,30222.36%3811.98%10,25353.30%19,238
Jasper 11,38373.56%3,79824.54%2941.90%7,58549.02%15,475
Jay 6,36175.14%1,92622.75%1792.11%4,43552.39%8,466
Jefferson 9,66365.60%4,73132.12%3362.28%4,93233.48%14,730
Jennings 9,49077.29%2,52320.55%2652.16%6,96756.74%12,278
Johnson 51,21965.83%24,73631.79%1,8472.38%26,48334.04%77,802
Knox 11,65572.72%4,06725.37%3061.91%7,58847.35%16,028
Kosciusko 26,49973.85%8,36423.31%1,0212.84%18,13550.54%35,884
LaGrange 8,11076.14%2,35522.11%1871.75%5,75554.03%10,652
Lake 91,76041.65%124,87056.67%3,7001.68%-33,110-15.02%220,330
LaPorte 25,99752.54%22,42745.32%1,0592.14%3,5707.22%49,483
Lawrence 15,60174.04%4,96123.54%5092.42%10,64050.50%21,071
Madison 31,21560.16%19,52437.63%1,1512.21%11,69122.53%51,890
Marion 134,17534.30%247,77263.35%9,1872.35%-113,597-29.05%391,134
Marshall 13,84469.38%5,71228.63%3971.99%8,13240.75%19,953
Martin 4,02978.16%1,01119.61%1152.23%3,01858.55%5,155
Miami 10,92575.38%3,23522.32%3332.30%7,69053.06%14,493
Monroe 22,07134.95%39,86163.12%1,2191.93%-17,790-28.17%63,151
Montgomery 12,65973.61%4,21324.50%3261.89%8,44649.11%17,198
Morgan 27,51275.96%7,78121.48%9282.56%19,73154.48%36,221
Newton 4,94274.78%1,50922.83%1582.39%3,43351.95%6,609
Noble 14,19573.87%4,66024.25%3621.88%9,53549.62%19,217
Ohio 2,39275.60%75023.70%220.70%1,64251.90%3,164
Orange 6,43272.73%2,22425.15%1882.12%4,20847.58%8,844
Owen 7,28673.47%2,42024.40%2112.13%4,86649.07%9,917
Parke 5,40076.90%1,50321.40%1191.70%3,89755.50%7,022
Perry 5,34561.18%3,20336.66%1892.16%2,14224.52%8,737
Pike 4,69275.37%1,41522.73%1181.90%3,27752.64%6,225
Porter 45,00851.87%39,74645.81%2,0142.32%5,2626.06%86,768
Posey 9,20969.38%3,81728.76%2471.86%5,39240.62%13,273
Pulaski 4,24673.04%1,46325.17%1041.79%2,78347.87%5,813
Putnam 12,27873.86%3,94623.74%3992.40%8,33250.12%16,623
Randolph 8,31275.02%2,51322.68%2542.30%5,79952.34%11,079
Ripley 11,26178.79%2,77419.41%2571.80%8,48759.38%14,292
Rush 6,03576.00%1,75422.09%1521.91%4,28153.91%7,941
Scott 7,33172.00%2,70126.53%1501.47%4,63045.47%10,182
Shelby 14,56872.78%5,02325.09%4262.13%9,54547.69%20,017
Spencer 7,35768.19%3,21329.78%2192.03%4,14438.41%10,789
St. Joseph 53,16446.13%59,89651.98%2,1781.89%-6,732-5.85%115,238
Starke 7,46972.42%2,65125.71%1931.87%4,81846.71%10,313
Steuben 11,32769.99%4,51327.89%3442.12%6,81442.10%16,184
Sullivan 6,69174.28%2,15323.90%1641.82%4,53850.38%9,008
Switzerland 3,13375.33%96423.18%621.49%2,16952.15%4,159
Tippecanoe 34,58148.15%35,01748.75%2,2263.10%-436-0.60%71,824
Tipton 6,11075.21%1,83422.58%1802.21%4,27652.63%8,124
Union 2,68876.98%73621.08%681.94%1,95255.90%3,492
Vanderburgh 41,84453.88%34,41544.31%1,4031.81%7,4299.57%77,662
Vermillion 5,18469.21%2,14528.64%1612.15%3,03940.57%7,490
Vigo 24,54556.17%18,12341.47%1,0302.36%6,42214.70%43,698
Wabash 10,76273.72%3,49423.93%3422.35%7,26849.79%14,598
Warren 3,40176.03%97421.78%982.19%2,42754.25%4,473
Warrick 21,32662.93%11,92335.18%6411.89%9,40327.75%33,890
Washington 9,11475.08%2,78422.93%2411.99%6,33052.15%12,139
Wayne 17,56763.47%9,52434.41%5882.12%8,04329.06%27,679
Wells 10,85577.10%2,92820.80%2972.10%7,92756.30%14,080
White 7,95771.13%3,03227.10%1981.77%4,92544.03%11,187
Whitley 12,86273.13%4,23424.07%4922.80%8,62849.06%17,588
Totals1,729,86356.91%1,242,50540.87%67,4132.22%487,35816.04%3,039,781

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Indiana County Swing 2020.svg
Indiana County Trend 2020.svg
Indiana County Flips 2020.svg

Results by congressional district

Trump and Republican candidates won 7 of 9 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 44.8%53.6% Frank J. Mrvan
2nd 59.4%38.9% Jackie Walorski
3rd 63.9%34% Jim Banks
4th 63.8%34% Jim Baird
5th 50.1%47.9% Victoria Spartz
6th 68.8%29.1% Greg Pence
7th 35.3%62.9% André Carson
8th 65.1%33.1% Larry Bucshon
9th 60.8%37.2% Trey Hollingsworth

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
Partisan clients
  1. This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in Missouri</span> Election in Missouri

The 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in Montana</span> Election in Montana

The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey</span> Election in New Jersey

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina</span> Election in North Carolina

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota</span> Election in South Dakota

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

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Further reading