List of election bellwether counties in the United States

Last updated

Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.

Contents

The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States [1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.

Significant bellwethers

Deviation in one election

The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980. [2] [3]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviationCountyStateCounty winnerVotesNational winnerLast deviation
1988 Blaine Flag of Montana.svg  Montana Michael Dukakis 1,4601,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
1992 Essex Flag of New York.svg  New York George H. W. Bush 8,2786,717 Bill Clinton 1976
2000 Pinellas Flag of Florida.svg  Florida Al Gore 200,657184,849 George W. Bush 1976
2004 Nicollet Flag of Minnesota.svg  Minnesota John Kerry 8,7978,689
Sullivan Flag of New Hampshire.svg  New Hampshire 11,43410,142
2012 Albany Flag of Wyoming.svg  Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,8667,458 Barack Obama
2016 Merced Flag of California.svg  California Hillary Clinton 37,31728,725 Donald Trump 1968
San Bernardino 340,833271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,12488,936
Stanislaus 81,64778,494 1968
Winnebago Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 55,71355,624 1976
2020 Bremer Flag of Iowa.svg  Iowa Donald Trump 8,2945,958 Joe Biden
Cortland Flag of New York.svg  New York 10,78910,369
Essex Flag of Vermont.svg  Vermont 1,7731,405
Hidalgo Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 1,120823 1968
Juneau Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 8,7494,746 1960
Marquette 5,7193,239 1976
Otsego Flag of New York.svg  New York 14,38212,975
Ottawa Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 14,6289,008 1960
Richland Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 4,8713,995 1976
Sawyer 5,9094,498 1960
Shiawassee Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 23,14915,347 1976
Valencia Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 17,36414,623 1948
Van Buren Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 21,59116,803 1976
Vigo Flag of Indiana.svg  Indiana 23,54518,213 1952
Warren Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 4,6763,090 1976
Washington Flag of Maine.svg  Maine 10,1946,761
Westmoreland Flag of Virginia.svg  Virginia 5,3184,501 1960
Wood Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 35,75730,617 1976
2024 Clallam Flag of Washington.svg  Washington Kamala Harris TBATBA Donald Trump 1976

Deviations in two elections

The following 95 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: [2]

Notes

  1. ↑ This county voted with the popular vote each time.[ citation needed ][ as of? ]

    Related Research Articles

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1992 United States presidential election</span> American election

    The 1992 United States presidential election was the 52nd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 1992. Democratic governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican president George H. W. Bush and independent businessman Ross Perot of Texas. The election marked the beginning of a period of Democratic dominance and the end of a period of Republican dominance in American presidential politics that began in 1968, and also marked the end of 12 years of Republican rule of the White House, as well as the end of the Greatest Generation's 32-year American rule and the beginning of the baby boomers' 28-year dominance until 2020.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1988 United States presidential election</span> American election

    The 1988 United States presidential election was the 51st quadrennial presidential election held on Tuesday, November 8, 1988. In what was the third consecutive landslide election for the Republican Party, their ticket of incumbent Vice President George H. W. Bush and Indiana senator Dan Quayle defeated the Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis and Texas senator Lloyd Bentsen.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1912 United States presidential election</span>

    The 1912 United States presidential election was the 32nd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 1912. Democratic governor Woodrow Wilson of New Jersey unseated incumbent Republican president William Howard Taft while defeating former president Theodore Roosevelt and Socialist Party nominee Eugene V. Debs.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1916 United States presidential election</span>

    The 1916 United States presidential election was the 33rd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 1916. Incumbent Democratic President Woodrow Wilson narrowly defeated former associate justice of the Supreme Court Charles Evans Hughes, the Republican candidate.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1944 United States presidential election</span>

    The 1944 United States presidential election was the 40th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 7, 1944. The election took place during World War II, which ended the following year. Incumbent Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Republican Thomas E. Dewey to win an unprecedented fourth term. It was also the fifth presidential election in which both major party candidates were registered in the same home state; the others have been in 1860, 1904, 1920, 1940, and 2016.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1976 United States presidential election</span>

    The 1976 United States presidential election was the 48th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 2, 1976. The Democratic nominee, former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter, narrowly defeated incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford. This was the first presidential election since 1932 in which the incumbent was defeated, as well as the only Democratic victory of the six presidential elections between 1968 and 1988.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Swing state</span> US state where no party for election has overwhelming support

    In United States politics, a swing state is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states", as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Upper Midwest</span> Region in the northern portion of the Midwestern United States

    The Upper Midwest is a northern subregion of the U.S. Census Bureau's Midwestern United States. Although the exact boundaries are not uniformly agreed upon, the region is usually defined to include the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin; some definitions include North Dakota, South Dakota, and parts of Nebraska and Illinois.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">West North Central states</span> Group of states in the Central North-western part of the US

    The West North Central states form one of the nine geographic subdivisions within the United States that are officially recognized by the U.S. Census Bureau.

    A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.

    The Rotating Regional Primary System is a proposed system for reform of the United States presidential primary process, in which the country would be divided into four regions for primary elections. The plan has been promoted since 1999 by the National Association of Secretaries of State.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">National Association of Secretaries of State</span> U.S. non-partisan professional organization

    The National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS), founded in 1904, is the oldest non-partisan professional organization of public officials in the United States, composed of the secretaries of state of U.S. states and territories. Currently, all secretaries of state, including Washington D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam are members of NASS.

    The electoral history of Bernie Sanders includes the 2016 and 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and caucuses, and elections as United States Senator from Vermont, United States Representative from Vermont's at-large district (1991–2007), and Mayor of Burlington (1981–1989). Sanders contested 23 elections, of which he won 17. He has won every election he has contested since his first election to the House of Representatives in 1990, except his presidential runs.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1988 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania</span>

    The 1988 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 25 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1988 United States presidential election in Wisconsin</span>

    The 1988 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 8, 1988. All 50 states and the District of Columbia, were part of the 1988 United States presidential election. State voters chose 11 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Blue wall (U.S. politics)</span> States that consistently vote Democratic in U.S. elections

    The "blue wall" is a term used by political pundits to refer to the 18 U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party won in each presidential election from 1992 to 2012. George W. Bush, the only Republican president elected during this time, was able to narrowly win the electoral college in 2000 (271) and 2004 (286) only by winning enough states outside of the blue wall to defeat his Democratic opponents, Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively. The term "red wall", or "red sea", is less commonly used to refer to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous election cycles; however, most of these states represent significantly fewer electoral college votes than the blue wall. These terms refer to the colors that have become associated with the Democratic and Republican parties in the 21st century.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">1940 United States presidential election in Wisconsin</span>

    The 1940 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 1940 as part of the 1940 United States presidential election. State voters chose 12 electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">United States presidential elections in Illinois</span> US election season

    Following is a table of United States presidential elections in Illinois, ordered by year. Since its admission to statehood in 1818, Illinois has participated in every U.S. presidential election.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">119th United States Congress</span> 2025–2027 meeting of U.S. legislature

    The 119th United States Congress will be the next meeting of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, composed of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives. It is scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C., from January 3, 2025, to January 3, 2027, beginning its term during the final 17 days of Joe Biden's presidency and the first two years of Donald Trump's second presidency. The elections of November 2024 will decide control of both houses.

    References

    1. ↑ "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
    2. 1 2 Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org . Retrieved November 8, 2024.
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post . Retrieved November 18, 2020.
    This page is based on this Wikipedia article
    Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
    Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.