List of election bellwether counties in the United States

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Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.

Contents

The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States [1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.

Significant bellwethers

Deviation in one election

The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980. [2] [3]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviationCountyStateCounty winnerVotesNational winnerLast deviation
1988 Blaine Flag of Montana.svg  Montana Michael Dukakis 1,4601,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
2000 Pinellas Flag of Florida.svg  Florida Al Gore 200,657184,849 George W. Bush 1976
2004 Nicollet Flag of Minnesota.svg  Minnesota John Kerry 8,7978,689
Sullivan Flag of New Hampshire.svg  New Hampshire 11,43410,142
2012 Albany Flag of Wyoming.svg  Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,8667,458 Barack Obama
2016 Merced Flag of California.svg  California Hillary Clinton 37,31728,725 Donald Trump 1968
San Bernardino 340,833271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,12488,936
Stanislaus 81,64778,494 1968
2020 Bremer Flag of Iowa.svg  Iowa Donald Trump 8,2945,958 Joe Biden 1976
Cortland Flag of New York.svg  New York 10,78910,369
Essex Flag of Vermont.svg  Vermont 1,7731,405
Hidalgo Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 1,120823 1968
Juneau Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 8,7494,746 1960
Marquette 5,7193,239 1976
Otsego Flag of New York.svg  New York 14,38212,975
Ottawa Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 14,6289,008 1960
Richland Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 4,8713,995 1976
Sawyer 5,9094,498 1960
Shiawassee Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 23,14915,347 1976
Valencia Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 17,36414,623 1948
Van Buren Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 21,59116,803 1976
Vigo Flag of Indiana.svg  Indiana 23,54518,213 1952
Warren Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 4,6763,090 1976
Washington Flag of Maine.svg  Maine 10,1946,761
Westmoreland Flag of Virginia.svg  Virginia 5,3184,501 1960
Wood Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 35,75730,617 1976
2024 Clallam Flag of Washington.svg  Washington Kamala Harris TBATBA Donald Trump 1976

Deviations in two elections

The following 96 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: [2]

Comparison with Random Distribution

The table above lists counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in at least 85% of elections from 1980 through 2020. This yields 125 counties with 11 or more wins during this period. The probability of this occurring by chance in a completely random distribution is quite low and is statistically significant.

However, the relevance of using a random prediction model to evaluate bellwether counties has been questioned by political analysts. Voting behavior in the United States is not random but is shaped by entrenched demographic, cultural, and political factors. [4] [5] Most counties vote predictably along partisan lines, with many states and regions consistently favoring one party. This predictability undermines the argument that bellwether counties’ alignment with national outcomes is purely a matter of statistical chance.

Bellwether counties are notable because they deviate from this predictability, reflecting a mix of voter demographics and preferences that align with broader national trends. Studies have shown that bellwether counties often mirror key swing states or represent diverse, politically balanced communities. [6] This alignment suggests that their predictive accuracy arises from real-world dynamics rather than randomness.

Critics of the random model argue that it oversimplifies the complexities of electoral behavior and ignores the systemic factors that make bellwether counties significant. For example, they often serve as microcosms of the national electorate, capturing shifts in voting patterns driven by economic, social, and cultural changes. [7] Reducing their accuracy to mere statistical coincidence disregards these deeper insights.

References

  1. ↑ "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. August 3, 2018. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
  2. 1 2 Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org . Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post . Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  4. ↑ Abramowitz, Alan I. (2018). The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump. Yale University Press.
  5. ↑ Fiorina, Morris P. (2017). Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemates. Hoover Institution Press.
  6. ↑ Cohn, Nate. (2020). "How the Suburbs Moved America Left." The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com.
  7. ↑ Abramowitz, Alan I. (2018). The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump. Yale University Press.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ This county voted with the popular vote each time. The last time it deviated from the popular vote was in 1976, giving it the longest current streak in the nation.[ citation needed ][ as of? ]

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