2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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Turnout	68.67% (of eligible voters) (6.31 pp)
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 501,614 401,894 Percentage 54.29% 43.50%
County Results Precinct Results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[2]

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points. ^[3] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state. ^{[4] [5]}

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%). ^[6] He also won over Native Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote. ^{[7] [8]} 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created. ^{[9] [10]} This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate. ^[11] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. ^[12]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)	144,067	91.25	22
Uncommitted	13,809	8.75	0
Total	157,876	100%	22

Democratic primary

This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary § NMresults.[ edit ]

2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary ^[13]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [14]
Joe Biden	181,700	73.30	30
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	37,435	15.10	4
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	14,552	5.87
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	4,026	1.62
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	2,735	1.10
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	971	0.39
Uncommitted Delegate	6,461	2.61
Total	247,880	100%	34

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary

June 2, 2020 2024  →

←  NE

Candidate Jo Jorgensen (nominee) [a] Uncommitted Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) Home state South Carolina N/A Wyoming Popular vote 520 330 158 Percentage 33.12% 21.02% 10.06%   Candidate Jacob Hornberger (lost) [a] Adam Kokesh (lost) [a] Sam Robb (lost) [a] Home state Virginia Indiana Pennsylvania Popular vote 154 124 90 Percentage 9.81% 7.90% 5.73%

Election results by county   Jo Jorgensen   Uncommitted   Tie   No votes

New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020 ^[17]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee) [a]	520	33.12%
Uncommitted	330	21.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)	158	10.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost) [a]	154	9.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost) [a]	124	7.90%
Sam Robb (lost) [a]	90	5.73%
John Monds (lost) [a]	63	4.01%
Dan Behrman (lost) [a]	58	3.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost) [a]	39	2.48%
James Ogle (lost) [a]	34	2.17%
Total	1,557	100%

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report [18]	Solid D
Inside Elections [19]	Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20]	Likely D
Politico [21]	Likely D
RCP [22]	Lean D
Niskanen [23]	Safe D
CNN [24]	Solid D
The Economist [25]	Safe D
CBS News [26]	Likely D
270towin [27]	Likely D
ABC News [28]	Solid D
NPR [29]	Likely D
NBC News [30]	Likely D
538 [31]	Solid D

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [b]	Margin
270 to Win [32]	October 6 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	53.5%	40.5%	6.0%	Biden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight [33]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	53.8%	42.3%	3.9%	Biden +11.5
Average			53.7%	41.4%	4.9%	Biden +12.3

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,481 (LV)	± 3.5%	42% [d]	56%	–	–	–	–
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal [35]	Oct 23–29, 2020	1,180 (LV)	± 2.9%	42%	54%	–	–	3% [e]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,719 (LV)	–	46%	52%	–	–	–	–
GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D) [36] [A]	Oct 14–17, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	54%	–	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report [37]	Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020	886 (LV)	± 3.3%	39%	53%	2%	–	2% [f]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Sep 1–30, 2020	1,015 (LV)	–	44%	54%	–	–	–	1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal [38]	Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020	1,123 (LV)	± 2.9%	39%	54%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,087 (LV)	–	43%	56%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Jul 1–31, 2020	904 (LV)	–	48%	49%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [34]	Jun 8–30, 2020	506 (LV)	–	50%	49%	–	–	–	1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report [39]	Jun 12–13, 2020	740 (V)	± 3.6%	39%	53%	–	–	–	8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute [40] [B]	Apr 20–21, 2020	1,091 (RV)	± 3.1%	40%	52%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College [41]	Jan 3–6, 2020	967 (RV)	± 3.1%	46%	54%	–	–	–	–

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Emerson College [41] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 55% Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Emerson College [41] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 59% Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Emerson College [41] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico ^[42]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	501,614	54.29	+6.03
	Republican	Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent)	401,894	43.50	+3.46
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	12,585	1.36	−7.98
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	4,426	0.48	−0.76
	Constitution	Sheila "Samm" Tittle [g] David Sandige	1,806	0.20	+0.01
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	1,640	0.18	+0.04
Total votes			923,965	100%
	Democratic win

By county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Bernalillo	193,757	61.01%	116,135	36.57%	7,698	2.42%	77,622	24.44%	317,590
Catron	595	25.58%	1,698	73.00%	33	1.42%	-1,103	-47.42%	2,326
Chaves	6,381	28.43%	15,656	69.76%	406	1.81%	-9,275	-41.33%	22,443
Cibola	4,745	53.30%	3,975	44.65%	183	2.05%	770	8.65%	8,903
Colfax	2,611	43.40%	3,271	54.37%	134	2.23%	-660	-10.97%	6,016
Curry	4,307	28.52%	10,444	69.16%	350	2.32%	-6,137	-40.64%	15,101
De Baca	231	25.64%	656	72.81%	14	1.55%	-425	-47.17%	901
Dona Ana	47,957	58.03%	32,802	39.69%	1,882	2.28%	15,155	18.34%	82,641
Eddy	5,424	23.36%	17,454	75.16%	344	1.48%	-12,030	-51.80%	23,222
Grant	7,590	52.58%	6,553	45.40%	292	2.02%	1,037	7.18%	14,435
Guadalupe	1,234	56.37%	917	41.89%	38	1.74%	317	14.48%	2,189
Harding	179	35.45%	319	63.17%	7	1.38%	-140	-27.72%	505
Hidalgo	823	41.69%	1,120	56.74%	31	1.57%	-297	-15.05%	1,974
Lea	4,061	19.41%	16,531	79.03%	326	1.56%	-12,470	-59.62%	20,918
Lincoln	3,194	30.99%	6,942	67.36%	170	1.65%	-3,748	-36.37%	10,306
Los Alamos	7,554	61.45%	4,278	34.80%	461	3.75%	3,276	26.65%	12,293
Luna	3,563	43.97%	4,408	54.40%	132	1.63%	-845	-10.43%	8,103
McKinley	18,029	68.07%	7,801	29.45%	656	2.48%	10,228	38.62%	26,486
Mora	1,745	64.97%	903	33.62%	38	1.41%	842	31.35%	2,686
Otero	8,485	36.00%	14,521	61.61%	565	2.39%	-6,036	-25.61%	23,571
Quay	1,170	30.21%	2,634	68.01%	69	1.78%	-1,464	-37.80%	3,873
Rio Arriba	10,990	66.09%	5,408	32.52%	230	1.39%	5,582	33.57%	16,628
Roosevelt	1,802	27.27%	4,634	70.13%	172	2.60%	-2,832	-42.86%	6,608
San Juan	18,083	34.58%	32,874	62.86%	1,337	2.56%	-14,791	-28.28%	52,294
San Miguel	7,888	68.41%	3,421	29.67%	222	1.92%	4,467	38.74%	11,531
Sandoval	40,588	53.01%	34,174	44.64%	1,800	2.35%	6,414	8.37%	76,562
Santa Fe	62,530	76.05%	18,329	22.29%	1,368	1.66%	44,201	53.76%	82,227
Sierra	2,265	38.10%	3,542	59.58%	138	2.32%	-1,277	-21.48%	5,945
Socorro	3,722	51.98%	3,255	45.46%	183	1.86%	467	6.52%	7,160
Taos	13,121	76.37%	3,715	21.62%	345	2.01%	9,406	54.75%	17,181
Torrance	2,344	32.19%	4,772	65.54%	165	2.27%	-2,428	-33.35%	7,281
Union	383	21.41%	1,388	77.59%	18	1.00%	-1,005	-56.18%	1,789
Valencia	14,263	44.19%	17,364	53.80%	650	2.01%	-3,101	-9.61%	32,277
Total	501,614	54.29%	401,894	43.50%	20,457	2.21%	99,720	10.79%	923,965

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%

By congressional district

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	37.4%	60.2%	Deb Haaland
2nd	54.9%	43.1%	Xochitl Torres Small
			Yvette Herrell
3rd	40.1%	57.7%	Ben Ray Luján
			Teresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis

The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories. ^[43]

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit. ^{[44] [45]} Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith ^[46] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future. ^[47]

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Mexico
• 2020 New Mexico elections
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23, ^[15] ten days before the New Mexico primary, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. ^[16]
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Other candidate" with 3%
6. "other" with 2%
7. The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship  for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Luján's campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
2. This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute, a communications firm which supports the Democratic Party

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 21, 2020.
4. "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
5. Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumhil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (November 21, 2020). "New Mexico President: General Election Polls". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved November 21, 2020.
6. "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
7. Caldera, Camille. "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
8. "Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend". Navajo Times. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
9. "The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
10. "The Political Graveyard: Hidalgo County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
11. Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau (November 23, 2020). "Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
12. "New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
13. "2020 Primary Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
14. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
15. Doherty, Brian (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nomination". Reason. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
16. Saul, Stephanie; Corasaniti, Nick (May 27, 2020). "16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic. Here's a List". The New York Times. Retrieved July 18, 2020.
17. "2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State . Link under "2020 Primary Election Results". July 28, 2020. p. 12. Retrieved June 7, 2021.
18. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
19. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
20. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
21. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
22. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
23. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
24. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
25. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
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28. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
29. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
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33. Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "New Mexico : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
34. "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
35. Boyd, Dan (October 31, 2020). "Journal Poll: Biden comfortably ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
36. "GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)" (PDF).
37. "Biden leads Trump by 14 points in NM - NM Political Report". October 6, 2020.
38. Boyd, Dan (September 5, 2020). "Journal Poll: Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
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43. Silver, Nate (March 8, 2016). "Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
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46. "Complaint". UnAmericanBar. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
47. "Trump asks to drop voting allegations in New Mexico, for now". Associated Press . April 20, 2021.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, New Mexico

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New Mexico", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "New Mexico: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of New Mexico". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• New Mexico at Ballotpedia