2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

Last updated

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2016 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2020  

All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election21
Seats won30
Seat changeIncrease2.svg1Decrease2.svg1
Popular vote400,702262,714
Percentage58.25%38.20%
SwingIncrease2.svg2.24%Decrease2.svg5.79%

2018 U.S. House elections in New Mexico.svg
2018 United States House of Representatives Elections in New Mexico by county.svg

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Contents

The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2008 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.

Overview

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico by district: [1]

District Democratic Republican OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 147,33659.13%90,50736.33%11,3194.54%249,162100%Democratic hold
District 2 101,48950.93%97,76749.07%n/a199,256100%Democratic gain
District 3 148,50160.64%76,42731.21%13,2655.42%244,893100%Democratic hold
Total404,02658.27%264,70138.18%24,5843.55%693,311100%

District 1

2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2016
2020  
  Deb Haaland official portrait, 116th congress 2 (1).jpg Janice Arnold Jones Alamogordo 2010.jpg
Nominee Deb Haaland Janice Arnold-Jones
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote147,33690,507
Percentage59.1%36.3%

2018 NM-1 Counties.svg
NM1 House 2018.svg
Haaland:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Jones:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Deb Haaland
Democratic

The 1st district is centered around the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, who had represented the district since 2013, was reelected to a third term with 65% of the vote in 2016. Lujan Grisham did not run for reelection and instead successfully ran for governor of New Mexico. [2]

New Mexico's 1st district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Pat
Davis
Deb
Haaland
Damian
Lara
Damon
Martinez
Paul
Moya
Antoinette
Sedillo-Lopez
OtherUndecided
Albuquerque Journal [17] May 20–24, 2018395± 4.9%5%19%4%22%3%17%29%
Lake Research Partners (D) [18] [A] May 13–14, 2018390± 5.0%20%23%25%5%27%
Public Policy Polling (D) [19] [B] April 13–15, 2018508± 4.411%15%7%15%43%

Endorsements

Deb Haaland
Organizations
Individuals

Debate

2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district Democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Annie ChavezPat DavisDennis Dinge Deb Haaland Damian Lara Antoinette Sedillo Lopez Damon Martinez Paul Moya
1May. 20, 2018 KOAT-TV
Albuquerque Journal
Doug Fernandez [31] NPNPPPPP

Pre-primary convention results

Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.

CandidatePercentage of delegates wonAutomatically on ballot
Pat Davis13.55%Red x.svg
Deb Haaland34.80%Green check.svg
Damian Lara12.09%Red x.svg
Damon Martinez10.81%Red x.svg
Paul Moya3.66%Red x.svg
Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez25.09%Green check.svg

Results

Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Deb Haaland 25,444 40.6
Democratic Damon Martinez 16,18225.8
Democratic Antoinette Sedillo Lopez 12,91920.6
Democratic Paul Moya3,6915.9
Democratic Pat Davis (withdrawn)2,3853.8
Democratic Damian Lara2,0633.3
Total votes62,687 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 19,316 100.0
Total votes19,316 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Lloyd Princeton, business consultant [34]

Results

Libertarian primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton 244 100.0
Total votes244 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [35] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections [36] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
RCP [38] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [39] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
538 [40] Safe DNovember 7, 2018

Forum

2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district candidate forum
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Deb Haaland Janice Arnold-Jones Lloyd Princeton
1Sep. 20, 2018 KENW (TV)
KNME-TV
KRWG-TV
Gene Grant
Lorene Mills
[41] PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deb
Haaland (D)
Janice
Arnold-Jones (R)
Lloyd
Princeton (L)
Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc. [42] October 26 — November 1, 2018419± 4.8%50%38%5%7%
Carroll Strategies [43] October 29, 201845251%43%3%2%
Emerson College [44] October 24–26, 2018327± 5.7%51%41%6%
Research & Polling, Inc. [45] September 7–13, 2018410± 4.8%49%41%3%8%
Carroll Strategies [46] June 15–16, 201841947%43%4%6%

Results

New Mexico's 1st congressional district, 2018 [47]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Deb Haaland 147,336 59.1
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 90,50736.3
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton11,3194.5
Total votes249,162 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

2018 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2016
2020  
  Xochitl Torres Small, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg Yvette Herrell official photo, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Xochitl Torres Small Yvette Herrell
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote101,48997,767
Percentage50.9%49.1%

2018 NM-2 Counties.svg
2018 NM-02 election results by precinct.svg
Torres Small:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Herrell:     50-60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election

Steve Pearce
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Xochitl Torres Small
Democratic

The 2nd district is very expansive, covering rural Southern New Mexico, including Alamogordo, Las Cruces, and Roswell. Republican Steve Pearce, who had represented the district since 2011 and previously represented the district from 2003 to 2009, was reelected to a fourth consecutive and seventh total term with 63% of the vote in 2016. Pearce did not run for reelection and instead ran unsuccessfully for governor of New Mexico.

New Mexico's 2nd district was one of the 80 Republican-held seats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was targeting in 2018. [48] It was successfully picked up by the Democrats.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Disqualified
Declined

Forum

2018 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district Democratic candidate forum
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
David BaakeMadeline Hildebrandt
1Dec. 12, 2017 KRWG-TV Fred Martino [64] PP

Pre-primary convention results

Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.

CandidatePercentage of delegates wonAutomatically on ballot
Xochitl Torres Small65.75%Green check.svg
Madeline Hildebrandt34.25%Green check.svg

Results

Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small 25,395 72.6
Democratic Madeline Hildebrandt9,57727.4
Total votes34,972 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Endorsements

Yvette Herrell
Organizations
  • House Freedom Fund [70]
Monty Newman
Individuals
  • Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas and presidential candidate in 2016 [71]

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Yvette Herrell 16,023 49.0
Republican Monty Newman10,47432.0
Republican Gavin Clarkson4,06012.4
Republican Clayburn Griffin2,1436.6
Total votes32,700 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [35] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections [36] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
RCP [38] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [39] TossupNovember 5, 2018
538 [40] TossupNovember 7, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Xochitl
Torres Small (D)
Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc. [42] October 26 — November 1, 2018413± 4.8%46%45%9%
Carroll Strategies [43] October 29, 201833847%42%11%
Emerson College [44] October 24–26, 2018278± 6.1%47%47%6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [72] October 19–23, 2018522± 4.6%45%44%11%
The Tarrance Group (R) [73] [C] September 30 — October 2, 2018400± 4.9%49%45%6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [74] September 13–18, 2018503± 4.9%45%46%10%
Research & Polling, Inc. [75] September 7–13, 2018405± 4.9%48%41%11%
Carroll Strategies [46] June 15–16, 201833449%35%17%
DCCC Targeting & Analytics (D) [76] [D] June 6–11, 2018456± 4.6%45%43%

Results

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, 2018 [47]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small 101,489 50.9
Republican Yvette Herrell 97,76749.1
Total votes199,256 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 3

2018 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2016
2020  
  BenLujan2016 (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Jerald McFallChris Manning
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote155,20176,42713,265
Percentage63.4%31.2%5.4%

2018 NM-3 Counties.svg
County results
McFall:     50-60%     60–70%
Lujan:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

NM3 House 2018.svg
Precinct results
Lujan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McFall:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

The 3rd district covers Northern New Mexico, including the capital Santa Fe, as well as Farmington, Las Vegas, and Taos. The district also expands into parts of rural Eastern New Mexico, taking in Clovis and Portales. Democrat Ben Ray Luján, who had represented the district since 2009, was reelected to a fifth term with 62% of the vote in 2016.

New Mexico's 3rd district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) 63,909 100.0
Total votes63,909 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Jerald McFall, farmer and former ski instructor [77]

Results

Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jerald Steve McFall 20,480 100.0
Total votes20,480 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Christopher Manning, auditor [77]

Results

Libertarian primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Christopher Manning 201 100.0
Total votes201 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [35] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections [36] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
RCP [38] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [39] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
538 [40] Safe DNovember 7, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ben
Ray Luján (D)
Jerald
McFall (R)
Christopher
Manning (L)
Undecided
Carroll Strategies [43] October 29, 201841057%33%4%6%
Emerson College [44] October 24–26, 2018331± 5.7%54%37%5%
Carroll Strategies [46] June 15–16, 201844658%30%5%7%

Results

New Mexico's 3rd congressional district, 2018 [47]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) 155,201 63.4
Republican Jerald Steve McFall76,42731.2
Libertarian Christopher Manning13,2655.4
Total votes244,893 100.0
Democratic hold

References

  1. Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives . Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. Boyd, Dan (December 13, 2016). "U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham announces 2018 gubernatorial bid". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved December 13, 2016.
  3. 1 2 "NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle - NRCC". February 8, 2017. Retrieved June 6, 2018.
  4. Oxford, Andrew (May 2, 2017). "Haaland, former Dem Party state chairwoman, running for Congress". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved May 5, 2017.
  5. McKay, Dan (May 30, 2017). "Fifth democrat joins race to replace Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  6. Boyd, Dan (July 10, 2017). "Ex-U.S. attorney enters race for ABQ-based congressional seat". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  7. Shepard, Maggie (April 20, 2017). "Sedillo Lopez launches run for 1st Congressional District". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved April 21, 2017.
  8. Boyd, Dan (July 27, 2017). "8th Dem candidate enters race for congressional seat". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved July 28, 2017.
  9. McKay, Dan (October 2, 2017). "Chavez drops out of congressional race due to health concerns". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved October 3, 2017.
  10. "Albuquerque city councilman running for U.S. House". The Santa Fe New Mexican . April 4, 2017. Retrieved April 5, 2017.
  11. KOB Web Staff (May 29, 2018). "Democrat Pat Davis drops out of congressional race, endorses Haaland". KOB . Archived from the original on May 29, 2018. Retrieved May 29, 2018.
  12. Oxford, Andrew (May 8, 2017). "N.M. physicist announces run for Lujan Grisham's seat". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  13. "Security Check Required". www.facebook.com. Retrieved November 13, 2017.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Lyman, Andy (December 14, 2016). "Here's who's considering running to replace Lujan Grisham in Congress". New Mexico Political Report. Retrieved January 19, 2017.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 McKay, Dan (December 14, 2016). "Lujan Grisham's run shaking up politics". Albuquerque Journal . Retrieved January 19, 2017.
  16. Terrell, Steve (July 19, 2017). "State Sen. Padilla will run for lieutenant governor". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  17. Albuquerque Journal
  18. Lake Research Partners (D)
  19. Public Policy Polling (D)
  20. "Historic Endorsement for New Mexico's First Congressional District Campaign". Greater Diversity News. January 15, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  21. Clark, Carol (February 21, 2018). "National Organization For Women PAC Endorses Deb Haaland For Congress". Los Alamos Daily Post. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  22. "Deb Haaland on Twitter" . Retrieved June 6, 2018.
  23. 1 2 "Ex-Lt. Gov. Denish endorses Haaland for Congress". The Santa Fe New Mexican. October 24, 2017. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  24. Martin Heinrich. "For too long, our native communities have been underrepresented and undervalued in Washington. This November, we have the chance to make progress by electing the first Native American woman to Congress. @Deb4CongressNM #IndigenousPeoplesDay2018". Twitter.
  25. Michael Coleman - Journal Washington Bureau. "NM candidates for Congress win high-level endorsements from D.C." www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved June 6, 2018.
  26. 1 2 "Deb Haaland on Twitter" . Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  27. "Terry McAuliffe on Twitter" . Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  28. "Rep. Gwen Moore (WI-4) endorses Deb Haaland". YouTube. February 17, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  29. "President Obama endorses Deb Halaand for Congress". KRQE. August 1, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  30. "Tom Perez on Twitter" . Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  31. YouTube
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 6, 2018.
  33. Terrell, Steve (June 19, 2017). "Republican enters race for 1st Congressional District seat". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved June 20, 2017.
  34. "Congressional race in New Mexico gets Libertarian candidate". Albuquerque Journal. January 8, 2018.
  35. 1 2 3 "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  36. 1 2 3 "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  37. 1 2 3 "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  38. 1 2 3 "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  39. 1 2 3 "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos . Retrieved November 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  40. 1 2 3 Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight . Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  41. YouTube
  42. 1 2 Research & Polling, Inc.
  43. 1 2 3 Carroll Strategies
  44. 1 2 3 Emerson College
  45. Research & Polling, Inc.
  46. 1 2 3 Carroll Strategies
  47. 1 2 3 "Official Results 2018 General [Election] November 6, 2018". New Mexico Secretary of State. November 27, 2018. Archived from the original on June 24, 2022.
  48. DCCC Announces Battlefield Expansion
  49. Oxford, Andrew (June 11, 2017). "All eyes on Pearce's next step". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved June 19, 2017.
  50. "Las Cruces water attorney Xochitl Torres Small to seek seat being vacated by Pearce". Las Cruces Sun-News. January 17, 2018.
  51. "Democrat Baake to run for Pearce seat". Las Cruces Sun-News. June 29, 2017. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  52. 1 2 "Three Candidates Remain In Race For Democratic Nomination In New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District". KRWG-TV. January 20, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  53. 1 2 Haussamen, Heath (July 18, 2017). "Dunn will run for U.S. House instead of land commissioner". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  54. Oxford, Andrew (July 4, 2017). "Endorsements gaining steam". The Albuquerque Journal . Archived from the original on October 18, 2017. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  55. Oxford, Andrew (July 24, 2017). "Former Las Cruces fire chief jumps into race for 1st Congressional District". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved July 24, 2017.
  56. 1 2 Haussamen, Heath (October 2, 2017). "Dunn drops out of 2nd Congressional District race". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved October 3, 2017.
  57. "Angel Peña announces bid for New Mexico Congressional District 2". Las Cruces Sun-News. December 22, 2017. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  58. "Angel Peña disqualified from New Mexico congressional race". Las Cruces Sun-News. February 12, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  59. "Angel Peña to challenge disqualification from congressional race". Las Cruces Sun-News. February 14, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  60. McKay, Dan (February 27, 2018). "Judge upholds Angel Peña disqualification from congressional race". Las Cruces Sun-News . Retrieved July 2, 2023.
  61. Oxford, Andrew (June 11, 2017). "All eyes on Pearce's next step". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved June 14, 2017.
  62. Peters, Joey (July 7, 2017). "Las Cruces legislator cites budget, jobs crisis for why he's running for governor". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  63. "Morales will not run for Pearce seat". Las Cruces Sun-News . August 22, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2017.
  64. YouTube
  65. D'Ammassa, Algernon. "Gavin Clarkson says he is the candidate to keep NM congressional seat Republican". The Deming Headlight. Archived from the original on November 14, 2020. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  66. "Former Gary Johnson campaign worker Clayburn Griffin to run for Pearce's seat". Las Cruces Sun-News.
  67. Barbati, Duane (July 11, 2017). "Yvette Herrell running for Congressional seat vacated by Pearce". Alamogordo Daily News . Retrieved July 11, 2017.
  68. D'Ammassa, Algernon (August 14, 2017). "Former Hobbs Mayor runs for Congress". Deming Headlight . Archived from the original on August 15, 2017. Retrieved August 14, 2017.
  69. Oxford, Andrew (July 18, 2017). "NM Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn announces bid for Congress". The Santa Fe New Mexican . Retrieved July 18, 2017.
  70. The Associated Press. "Freedom Caucus fund endorses New Mexico candidate". The Seattle Times.
  71. Monty Newman. "I look forward to working with @TedCruz on legislation that will improve the lives of New Mexicans. #nmpol". Twitter.
  72. NYT Upshot/Siena College
  73. The Tarrance Group (R)
  74. NYT Upshot/Siena College
  75. Research & Polling, Inc.
  76. DCCC Targeting & Analytics (D)
  77. 1 2 Halasz Graham, Sarah (October 19, 2018). "District 3 challengers say unseating Luján will be an arduous task". Santa Fe New Mexican.

Notes

    Partisan clients

    1. Poll sponsored for Damon Martinez.
    2. Poll sponsored for Pat Davis.
    3. Poll sponsored for Yvette Herrell.
    4. Poll sponsored for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

    Official campaign websites of first district candidates

    Official campaign websites for second district candidates

    Official campaign websites for third district candidates