2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Flag of West Virginia.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout47.04% Increase2.svg
  Senator Manchin (cropped 2).jpg Patrick Morrisey by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote290,510271,113
Percentage49.56%46.27%

2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate Election in West Virginia by Congressional District.svg
2018 US Senate by West Virginia House.svg
2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia results map by precinct.svg
Manchin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Morrisey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin won reelection to a second full term against Republican West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's deepening partisan lean and his declining popularity. Manchin ultimately won a second full term, though by a much narrower margin of 3.33% compared to his 2012 landslide. Manchin outperformed the margins of defeat from both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 40 percentage points.

As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democrat won a congressional and/or statewide election in West Virginia.

Background

West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but is now deeply red at the federal and state levels. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 13.1%. From 1959 to 2015, West Virginia was exclusively represented in the U.S. Senate by Democrats.

In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama by 26.7% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties. Manchin's 2012 re-election against Raese was a rematch between the two, as Manchin previously defeated Raese in the 2010 special election where he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.

Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.

Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections. [1] Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.

Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Paula Jean Swearengin
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Joe
Manchin
Paula Jean
Swearengin
Undecided
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) [12] September 201746%8%38%

Results

Results by county:
Manchin
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50-60%
60-70%
70-80% West Virginia U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Manchin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 112,658 69.86%
Democratic Paula Jean Swearengin 48,59430.14%
Total votes161,252 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Evan Jenkins
State officials
Organizations
  • Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce [28]
  • West Virginia Chamber of Commerce [29]
Newspapers

Debates

Host
network
DateLink(s)Participants
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
Don
Blankenship
Bo
Copley
Jack
Newbrough
Tom
Willis
Fox News May 1, 2018 [31] InvitedInvitedInvited
WVPB April 23, 2018 [32] InvitedInvitedInvitedInvitedInvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Don
Blankenship
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
OtherUndecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) [33] April 22–23, 2018500± 4.4%15%26%28%18%
Fox News [34] April 18–22, 2018985± 3.0%16%25%21%8% [35] 24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) [36] April 17–19, 2018411± 4.9%12%20%24%5% [37] 39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey) [38] March 13, 2018500± 4.4%23%17%24%4% [39]
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) [40] March 5–6, 201840027%29%19%10% [41] 15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) [42] February 5–6, 2018500± 4.4%18%33%25%12%12%
42%36%22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) [43] October 19–22, 2017400± 4.9%34%40%26%

Results

Results by county:
Morrisey
Morrisey--70-80%
Morrisey--60-70%
Morrisey--50-60%
Morrisey--40-50%
Morrisey--30-40%
Morrisey--<30%
Jenkins
Jenkins--30-40%
Jenkins--40-50%
Jenkins--50-60%
Jenkins--60-70%
Blankenship
Blankenship--<30%
Blankenship--30-40%
Blankenship--40-50% 2018 WV US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Morrisey
  •   Morrisey—70–80%
  •   Morrisey—60–70%
  •   Morrisey—50–60%
  •   Morrisey—40–50%
  •   Morrisey—30–40%
  •   Morrisey—<30%
Jenkins
  •   Jenkins—30–40%
  •   Jenkins—40–50%
  •   Jenkins—50–60%
  •   Jenkins—60–70%
Blankenship
  •   Blankenship—<30%
  •   Blankenship—30–40%
  •   Blankenship—40–50%
Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 48,007 34.90%
Republican Evan Jenkins 40,18529.21%
Republican Don Blankenship 27,47819.97%
Republican Tom Willis13,5409.84%
Republican Bo Copley4,2483.09%
Republican Jack Newbrough4,1152.99%
Total votes137,573 100%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominated

Constitution Party

Candidates

Denied ballot access

  • Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election. [45] Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate. [46] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018. [47]

Endorsements

Don Blankenship
Organizations

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [50] Lean DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [51] Tilt DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [52] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
CNN [53] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [54] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [55] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [56] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [57] Likely DNovember 6, 2018

Endorsements

Joe Manchin (D)
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
Newspapers
  • The Sunday News-Register [69]
Patrick Morrisey (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
U.S. governors
State senators
State delegates
Organizations
Individuals
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Joe Manchin (D)$8,872,162$6,459,930$4,200,530
Patrick Morrisey (R)$4,943,056$3,315,300$1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission [100]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Rusty
Hollen (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [101] October 28–31, 20181,013± 3.2%47%42%3%8%
Research America Inc. [102] October 19–30, 2018400± 4.9%45%40%11%5%
Strategic Research Associates [103] October 12–19, 2018650± 3.8%52%36%4%8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) [104] October 16–18, 2018600± 4.0%42%44%3%12%
45%47%8%
Vox Populi Polling [105] October 13–15, 2018789± 3.5%53%47%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) [106] October 11–13, 2018600± 4.0%49%45%2%3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) [107] October 7–9, 2018600± 4.0%41%40%8%
Strategic Research Associates [108] September 17–26, 2018650± 3.8%46%38%3%13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) [109] September 24–25, 2018500± 4.4%45%45%10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) [110] September 23–25, 2018612± 4.1%47%43%5%5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) [111] September 19–23, 2018601± 4.0%48%36%4%
Emerson College [112] September 13–15, 2018825± 3.5%45%33%6%16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) [113] August 23–26, 2018600± 4.0%47%41%12%
Research America Inc. [114] August 16–26, 2018404± 4.9%46%38%16%
Trafalgar Group (R) [115] July 13–16, 20181,158± 2.9%50%40%2%8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [116] June 11 – July 2, 2018892± 5.5%53%40%6%
Monmouth University [117] June 14–19, 2018653± 3.8%49%42%3%6%
Public Policy Polling [118] June 12–13, 201863349%42%9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) [119] May 15–16, 2018602± 4.0%52%40%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) [120] May 13–16, 2018600± 4.0%50%42%
47%40%4%
WPA Intelligence (R) [121] May 10, 2018400± 4.9%44%46%11%
Zogby Analytics [122] September 27–30, 2017320± 5.5%45%38%17%
Research America Inc. [123] August 11–20, 2017400± 4.9%51%37%12%
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%57%35%8%
Hypothetical polling

with Don Blankenship

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Don
Blankenship (C)
OtherUndecided
Research America Inc. [114] August 16–26, 2018404± 4.9%45%34%8%13%
Monmouth University [117] June 14–19, 2018653± 3.8%48%39%4%2%6%
Public Policy Polling [118] June 12–13, 201863346%35%11%7%
Gravis Marketing [125] May 22, 2018543± 4.2%51%39%5%

with generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) [36] April 17–19, 201837%41%20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [126] February 12 – March 5, 20181,591± 3.5%43%52%5%

with Evan Jenkins

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Evan
Jenkins (R)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics [122] September 27–30, 2017320± 5.5%49%36%15%
Research America Inc. [123] August 11–20, 2017400± 4.9%50%40%10%
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%51%39%10%

with Alex Mooney

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics [122] September 27–30, 2017320± 5.5%49%35%17%
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%58%28%14%

with David McKinley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
David
McKinley (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%54%34%12%
Public Policy Polling [127] April 29 – May 1, 20161,201± 2.8%46%36%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
David
McKinley (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%36%42%22%

with generic Democratic and Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) [36] April 17–19, 201837%49%4%11%
Zogby Analytics [122] September 27–30, 2017320± 5.5%35%40%6%19%

with Carte Goodwin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%41%31%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Evan
Jenkins (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%31%43%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling [124] November 16–17, 2016500± 4.4%39%43%18%

Results

Swing by county

Legend
Democratic--+10-15%
Republican--+<5%
Republican--+5-10%
Republican--+10-15%
Republican--+15-20%
Republican--+20-25%
Republican--+25-30%
Republican--+30-35%
Republican--+35-40%
Republican--+>40% 2018 West Virginia Senate swing by county margins.svg
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
  •   Republican—+25-30%
  •   Republican—+30-35%
  •   Republican—+35-40%
  •   Republican—+>40%
United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018 [128]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 290,510 49.57% −12.00%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 271,11346.26%+9.79%
Libertarian Rusty Hollen24,4114.17%N/A
Total votes586,034 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Manchin won all three congressional districts, all of which elected Republicans. [129]

DistrictManchinMorriseyRepresentative
1st 49%46% David McKinley
2nd 50%46% Alex Mooney
3rd 49%47% Evan Jenkins (115th Congress)
Carol Miller (116th Congress)

By county

All results are from the office of the Secretary of State of West Virginia. [130]

CountyCandidateTotal
votes
Joe ManchinPatrick MorriseyRusty Hollen
%Votes%Votes%Votes
Barbour 42.98%2,12151.91%2,5625.11%2524,935
Berkeley 42.63%14,50853.21%18,1114.16%1,41634,035
Boone 57.12%3,89439.75%2,7103.12%2136,817
Braxton 51.24%2,14845.01%1,8873.75%1574,192
Brooke 50.93%3,98744.88%3,5134.19%3287,828
Cabell 58.18%16,90938.77%11,2673.05%88529,061
Calhoun 45.34%96749.93%1,0654.74%1012,133
Clay 46.92%1,14149.22%1,1973.87%942,432
Doddridge 33.77%74661.20%1,3525.02%1112,209
Fayette 53.19%6,50242.22%5,1604.59%56112,223
Gilmer 47.22%94446.47%9296.30%1261,999
Grant 24.04%93572.49%2,8203.47%1353,890
Greenbrier 50.78%6,20145.55%5,5633.67%44812,212
Hampshire 33.80%2,32562.71%4,3133.49%2406,878
Hancock 46.53%4,70749.06%4,9634.42%44710,117
Hardy 41.41%1,88054.34%2,4674.25%1934,540
Harrison 51.05%11,49142.25%9,5126.70%1,50822,511
Jackson 47.89%4,89048.61%4,9643.50%35710,211
Jefferson 51.32%10,66645.04%9,3603.64%75620,782
Kanawha 61.58%39,33335.27%22,5273.16%2,01863,878
Lewis 41.64%2,32651.54%2,8796.82%3815,586
Lincoln 51.40%2,89945.27%2,5533.33%1885,640
Logan 47.74%4,57449.13%4,7083.13%3009,582
Marion 56.23%10,88937.59%7,2806.18%1,19719,366
Marshall 50.84%5,48545.12%4,8684.04%43610,789
Mason 51.06%4,27045.50%3,8053.44%2888,363
McDowell 48.67%2,22248.15%2,1983.18%1454,565
Mercer 41.19%7,43055.62%10,0333.20%57718,040
Mineral 34.79%3,10861.84%5,5253.37%3018,934
Mingo 42.13%2,92955.02%3,8252.85%1986,952
Monongalia 58.20%18,01035.28%10,9186.52%2,01930,947
Monroe 43.09%2,12553.61%2,6443.30%1634,932
Morgan 34.54%2,14360.98%3,7834.48%2786,204
Nicholas 45.75%3,58850.34%3,9483.91%3077,843
Ohio 55.18%8,73141.64%6,5883.19%50415,823
Pendleton 37.65%94858.70%1,4783.65%922,518
Pleasants 45.88%1,15750.20%1,2663.93%992,522
Pocahontas 44.59%1,26949.58%1,4115.83%1662,846
Preston 35.56%3,68657.34%5,9437.10%73610,365
Putnam 49.31%10,51347.33%10,0903.36%71621,319
Raleigh 43.86%10,58152.31%12,6203.84%92624,127
Randolph 50.27%4,47245.16%4,0174.58%4078,896
Ritchie 33.85%1,08261.36%1,9614.79%1533,196
Roane 51.30%2,16545.00%1,8993.70%1564,220
Summers 50.62%2,06945.71%1,8683.67%1504,087
Taylor 44.91%2,37649.94%2,6425.14%2725,290
Tucker 46.90%1,46947.96%1,5025.14%1613,132
Tyler 38.00%1,06557.19%1,6034.82%1352,803
Upshur 41.17%3,10253.23%4,0105.60%4227,534
Wayne 50.34%6,39546.87%5,9542.79%35512,704
Webster 45.03%1,03348.82%1,1206.15%1412,294
Wetzel 50.91%2,51843.17%2,1355.92%2934,946
Wirt 42.22%79053.71%1,0054.06%761,871
Wood 48.88%14,18947.19%13,6963.93%1,14129,026
Wyoming 44.27%2,60752.57%3,0963.16%1865,889

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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  23. Ferns, Ryan [@RyanFernsWV] (March 2, 2017). "@ReganWV wasn't trying to dodge. Let me be more clear. If a conservative who is more qualified runs, then I'm not going to" (Tweet). Retrieved April 3, 2017 via Twitter.
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  28. 1 2 "Campaign Trails: Chamber issues endorsements in primary". The Herald-Dispatch. April 17, 2018.
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