2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi
Flag of Mississippi (2001-2020).svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  →
Turnout49.7% Decrease2.svg
  Roger F. Wicker crop.jpg David Baria (cropped).jpg
Nominee Roger Wicker David Baria
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote547,619369,567
Percentage58.49%39.47%
2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate Election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 Mississippi Senate regular.svg
Wicker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Baria:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90%
U.S. senator before election

Roger Wicker
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Wicker
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.

Contents

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary fails to produce a majority winner. [1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Roger Wicker

U.S. Presidents

Governors

Statewide Officials

U.S. Senators

Mississippi State Officials

  • Dane Maxwell, Mayor of Pascagoula [16]
Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)

Political operatives

  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC [17]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party [18]
  • Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party [19]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Roger
Wicker		Chris
McDaniel		Tate
Reeves		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns [20] April 10–11, 2018446–66%16%–18%
JMC Analytics [21] February 15–17, 2018500± 4.4%38%–15%47%
38%20%–42%
Mason-Dixon [22] December 13–15, 2017400± 5.0%49%33%–18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker) [23] April 22–25, 2017500± 4.2%55%30%–14%

Results

Results by county Map legend .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Wicker-->=90% Wicker--80-90% Wicker--70-80% Wicker--60-70% 2018MSUSSENGOP.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Wicker—≥90%
  •   Wicker—80–90%
  •   Wicker—70–80%
  •   Wicker—60–70%
Republican primary results [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 130,118 82.79%
Republican Richard Boyanton27,05217.21%
Total votes157,170 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Jensen Bohren

Organizations

  • Jackpine Radicals [34]
  • Vote STEM [35]
  • Sustainable Politician Project [36]
  • Mississippi DSA [37]
David Baria

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		David
Baria		Jensen
Bohren		Omeria
Scott		Howard
Sherman		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns [20] April 10–11, 20184467%4%9%2%79%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		David
Baria		Chuck
Espy		Jim
Hood		Bennie
Thompson		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns [42] January 29, 20182,145± 1.8%––33%47%20%
10%34%––56%

Results

Initial primary results by county Map legend Sherman--50-60% Sherman--40-50% Sherman--30-40% Baria--30-40% Baria--40-50% Baria--50-60% Baria--60-70% Baria--80-90% Scott--30-40% Scott--40-50% Scott--50-60% Scott--70-80% Scott--80-90% Garland--50-60% Mississippi US Senate Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Initial primary results by county
Map legend
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—40–50%
  •   Sherman—30–40%
  •   Baria—30–40%
  •   Baria—40–50%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Scott—30–40%
  •   Scott—40–50%
  •   Scott—50–60%
  •   Scott—70–80%
  •   Scott—80–90%
  •   Garland—50–60%
Democratic primary results [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Howard Sherman 27,957 31.79%
Democratic David Baria 27,244 30.98%
Democratic Omeria Scott 21,27824.20%
Democratic Victor G. Maurice Jr.4,3614.96%
Democratic Jerone Garland4,2664.85%
Democratic Jensen Bohren2,8253.21%
Total votes87,931 100%

Runoff results

Primary runoff results by county Map legend Baria-->=90% Baria--80-90% Baria--70-80% Baria--60-70% Baria--50-60% Sherman--50-60% Sherman--60-70% Sherman--70-80% Sherman--80-90% 2018 MS US Senate Democratic runoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county
Map legend
  •   Baria—≥90%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Baria—70–80%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—60–70%
  •   Sherman—70–80%
  •   Sherman—80–90%
Democratic primary runoff results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic David Baria 44,156 58.64%
Democratic Howard Sherman31,14941.36%
Total votes75,305 100%

Independents and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared

Reform Party

Declared

  • Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate [27]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [45] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [46] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [48] Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN [49] Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [50] Safe RJune 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Roger Wicker (R)$5,349,028$3,831,418$3,138,044
David Baria (D)$532,629$528,325$72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission [51]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Roger
Wicker (R)		David
Baria (D)		Danny
Bedwell (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research [52] November 2–4, 20181,003–48%40%5%3% [53] –
Marist College [54] October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%57%31%2%2% [55] 9%
60%32%–2%7%
856 RV± 4.7%54%30%3%2% [55] 10%
57%32%–2%9%
SurveyMonkey [56] September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3%43%29%––27%
Triumph Campaigns [57] July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%53%32%1%2% [58] 12%
Triumph Campaigns [20] April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%48%31%––21%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 [59]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 547,619 58.49% +1.33%
Democratic David Baria 369,56739.47%−1.08%
Libertarian Danny Bedwell12,9811.39%N/A
Reform Shawn O'Hara6,0480.65%−0.41%
Total votes936,215 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Wicker won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [60]

DistrictWickerBariaRepresentative
1st 66%32% Trent Kelly
2nd 38%61% Bennie Thompson
3rd 62%36% Michael Guest
4th 68%30% Steven Palazzo

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References

  1. ↑ "United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 – Ballotpedia". Archived from the original on April 21, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  2. ↑ "Former President Bush to attend private event in Jackson". Starkville Daily News. June 1, 2017. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  3. ↑ "Candidacy form" (PDF). docquery.fec.gov. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 16, 2018. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  4. ↑ Pender, Geoff (November 16, 2015). "Some post-Trump political prognostics". The Clarion-Ledger . Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Precursor to 2018? Coordinated effort by McDaniel, Sojourner, Walters to malign Sen. @RogerWicker". Yall Politics. November 14, 2015. Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  6. ↑ Harrison, Bobby (July 9, 2017). "Will Tupelo's Wicker face McDaniel challenge in 2018 Senate race?". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal . Archived from the original on July 16, 2017. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  7. ↑ "GOP showdown: McDaniel expected to challenge Wicker for Senate". Politico . Archived from the original on February 27, 2018. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
  8. ↑ Swanson, Ian (February 28, 2018). "McDaniel makes GOP Senate challenge official in Miss". Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  9. ↑ "McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat – Chris McDaniel for US Senate". March 14, 2018. Archived from the original on March 15, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  10. ↑ "Senator Chris McDaniel". www.facebook.com. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  11. ↑ "Ex-President George W. Bush Raises Money for Sen. Wicker". U.S. News. June 1, 2017. Archived from the original on March 4, 2018. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
  12. ↑ "President Donald Trump is backing Sen. Roger Wicker against a Steve Bannon-led challenge by Chris McDaniel". The Sun Herald. October 20, 2017. Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  13. ↑ Phil Bryant. "I agree with @realDonaldTrump. Sen. Roger Wicker has been instrumental in cutting taxes, eliminating burdensome regulations, creating jobs and strengthening our border. Mississippi needs Sen. Wicker in Washington, and I hope you will join me in voting for him on June 5". Twitter. Archived from the original on June 6, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2018.
  14. ↑ Greg Snowden. "Every citizen is entitled to their own opinion, of course, but for myself, I stand with President Donald Trump in supporting the re-election of Senator Roger Wicker". Twitter. Archived from the original on March 7, 2021. Retrieved March 3, 2018.
  15. ↑ "Santorum Endorses Wicker". February 22, 2018. Archived from the original on February 22, 2018. Retrieved February 23, 2018.
  16. ↑ Ulmer, Sarah (December 15, 2017). "Pascagoula Mayor Dane Maxwell: We're going to fight to keep Senator Wicker". Y'all Politics. Archived from the original on December 15, 2017. Retrieved December 15, 2017.
  17. ↑ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
  18. ↑ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel's efforts to reestablish governance by the consent of the governed.
  19. ↑ "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It's time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi's conservative constituency.
  20. 1 2 3 Triumph Campaigns
  21. ↑ JMC Analytics
  22. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  23. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)
  24. ↑ "2018 Mississippi Republican primary election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  25. ↑ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (February 28, 2018). "Democrat David Baria enters Senate race in Mississippi". POLITICO. Archived from the original on March 7, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
  26. ↑ "BOHREN, JENSEN MR - Candidate overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved June 30, 2017.
  27. 1 2 3 4 "Qualifying list" (PDF). www.sos.ms.gov. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  28. ↑ "Omeria Scott running for US Senate". WTOK.com. March 1, 2018. Archived from the original on March 29, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
  29. ↑ Hall, Sam R.; Pender, Geoff (February 28, 2018). "2 Democrats — state lawmaker, Sela Ward's husband — enter #MSSEN race". The Clarion-Ledger . Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  30. ↑ "Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi". The Clarion Ledger. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
  31. ↑ "Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race". sunherald. Archived from the original on December 29, 2017. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
  32. ↑ Harrison, Bobby (October 19, 2017). "Presley could be hope for Democrats under right circumstances". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal . Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  33. ↑ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (January 18, 2018). "Top Democratic recruit passes on Mississippi Senate run". Politico . Archived from the original on January 18, 2018. Retrieved January 18, 2018.
  34. ↑ "2018 election progressive candidates". JackpineRadicals.com. Jackpine Radicals. November 23, 2017. Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  35. ↑ "2018 Mississippi Candidates Vetted". VoteSTEM.org. Vote STEM. February 5, 2018. Archived from the original on February 15, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
  36. ↑ "Sustainable Politician Project". sustainablepoliticianproject.com. Sustainable Politician Project. May 7, 2018. Archived from the original on May 16, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  37. ↑ "Vote For Jensen". Twitter.com. MSDSA. June 3, 2018. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
  38. ↑ Muller, Tiffany (September 6, 2018). "End Citizens United Endorses Five Reformers for Congress". End Citizens United. Archived from the original on September 17, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  39. ↑ "Baria endorsed by Mississippi AFL-CIO". bariaformississippi.com. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on May 14, 2018. Retrieved May 13, 2018.
  40. ↑ "Baria gets endorsement from MAE". WTOK. October 9, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  41. ↑ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". March 19, 2021. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  42. ↑ Triumph Campaigns
  43. ↑ "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  44. ↑ "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary runoff election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  45. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on February 5, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  46. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on September 12, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  47. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 12, 2017. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  48. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  49. ↑ "Key Races: Senate". Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  50. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Archived from the original on July 9, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  51. ↑ "Campaign finance data". Archived from the original on July 26, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  52. ↑ Change Research
  53. ↑ Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 3%
  54. ↑ Marist College
  55. 1 2 Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 1%, other with 1%
  56. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  57. ↑ Triumph Campaigns
  58. ↑ Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 2%
  59. ↑ "2018 General Election". Archived from the original on December 7, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
  60. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

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