2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi

2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi

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Turnout	60.4%
Nominee Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 709,539 578,806 Percentage 54.11% 44.13%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Hyde-Smith:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     >90% Espy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Elected U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Mississippi, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith won reelection to a full term against Democratic nominee Mike Espy, in a rematch of the 2018 special election. Despite being outspent nearly four to one, ^[1] Hyde-Smith won by a ten-point margin; however, she underperformed Republican president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 6 points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Cindy Hyde-Smith, incumbent U.S. senator ^[2]

Declined

• Gerard Gibert, businessman and vice chairman of the Mississippi Lottery Board ^[3]
• Chris McDaniel, incumbent state senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2018 ^[4]
• Josh Randle, former president of the Miss America Organization ^[5]

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith

Organizations

• Maggie's List ^[6]

Results

Republican primary results ^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)	235,463	100.0%
Total votes			235,463	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mike Espy, former United States Secretary of Agriculture, former U.S. representative for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 ^{[4] [8] [9]}

Eliminated in primary

• Tobey Bartee, former military intelligence officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 ^[10]
• Jensen Bohren, teacher, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 ^[11]

Declined

• J. P. Hughes Jr., state representative and candidate for lieutenant governor of Mississippi in 2019 ^[12]
• Brandon Presley, member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission ^[12]

Endorsements

Mike Espy

Organizations

• DSCC ^[13]
• Flip the Senate ^[14]
• Human Rights Campaign ^[15]

Results

Results by county

  Espy

•   ≥90%
•   80–90%
•   70–80%

  Bartee

•   50–60%

Democratic primary results ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mike Espy	250,496	93.12%
	Democratic	Tobey Bartee	11,148	4.14%
	Democratic	Jensen Bohren	7,345	2.74%
Total votes			268,989	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Jimmy Edwards ^[17]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [18]	Likely R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections [19]	Safe R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [21]	Safe R	October 30, 2020
Politico [22]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
RCP [23]	Lean R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ [24]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
538 [25]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
Economist [26]	Likely R	November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Executive Branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017-2021) ^[27]

Organizations

• Campaign for Working Families ^[28]
• Huck PAC ^[29]
• NRA Political Victory Fund ^[30]
• Susan B. Anthony List ^[31]
• United States Chamber of Commerce ^[32]

Mike Espy (D)

Executive Branch officials

• Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009) ^[33]
• Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005–2008) ^[34]

U.S. senators

• Elizabeth Warren, senator from Massachusetts since 2013 ^[35]

U.S. representatives

• Bennie Thompson, representative from MS-2 since 1993 ^[36]

State officials

• Stacey Abrams, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives ^[37]

Notable individuals

• Andrew Yang, former 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidate ^[38]

Organizations

• Center for Biological Diversity ^[39]
• Congressional Black Caucus PAC ^[40]
• Feminist Majority PAC ^[41]

Unions

• Mississippi AFL-CIO ^[42]
• National Education Association ^[43]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Mike Espy (D)	Other	Undecided
Data For Progress [44]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	562 (LV)	± 4.1%	50%	47%	4% [a]	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos [45]	October 23–26, 2020	507 (LV)	± 5.3%	52%	44%	3% [b]	2%
The Progress Campaign (D) [46]	October 23, 2020	– (V) [c]	–	48%	43%	–	–
Tyson Group (R) [47] [A]	August 28–30, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	41%	40%	–	18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) [48] [B]	July 30 – August 9, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	47%	42%	3% [d]	8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [49] [C]	May 27–28, 2020	871 (V)	± 3.3%	49%	41%	–	10%
Impact Management Group (R) [50]	May 4–7, 2020	606 (LV)	± 4.4%	58%	31%	3% [e]	9% [f]
Tyson Group (R) [47] [A]	March 10–12, 2020	600 (LV)	–	54%	28%	–	18%
The Progress Campaign (D) [51]	March 3–7, 2020	826 (V)	–	52%	44%	–	4% [g]
Mason-Dixon [52]	February 26–28, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	43%	–	4%
Chism Strategies [53]	January 3–7, 2020	618 (LV)	± 3.9%	44%	36%	–	20%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2020 ^[54]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent)	709,511	54.11%	+0.48%
	Democratic	Mike Espy	578,691	44.13%	−2.24%
	Libertarian	Jimmy Edwards	23,152	1.77%	N/A
Total votes			1,311,354	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

By county

County [55] Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Mike Espy Democratic Jimmy Edwards Libertarian Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % Adams 5,416 39.37 8,190 59.53 152 1.10 -2,774 -20.16 13,758 Alcorn 11,616 74.29 3,641 23.29 378 2.42 7,975 51.01 15,635 Amite 4,347 60.62 2,750 38.35 74 1.03 1,597 22.27 7,171 Attala 4,888 55.42 3,824 43.36 108 1.22 1,064 12.06 8,820 Benton 2,320 54.21 1,868 43.64 92 2.15 452 10.56 4,280 Bolivar 4,317 31.40 9,330 67.86 102 0.74 -5,013 -36.46 13,749 Calhoun 4,341 65.86 2,138 32.44 112 1.70 2,203 33.42 6,591 Carroll 3,716 64.93 1,923 33.60 84 1.47 1,793 31.33 5,723 Chickasaw 3,913 47.96 4,134 50.67 112 1.37 -221 -2.71 8,159 Choctaw 2,811 66.78 1,320 31.36 78 1.85 1,491 35.42 4,209 Claiborne 555 12.37 3,907 87.05 26 0.58 -3,352 -74.69 4,488 Clarke 5,169 61.93 3,053 36.58 125 1.50 2,116 25.35 8,347 Clay 4,006 38.95 6,171 59.99 109 1.06 -2,165 -21.05 10,286 Coahoma 2,133 25.05 6,337 74.41 46 0.54 -4,204 -49.37 8,516 Copiah 6,062 46.96 6,730 52.13 118 0.91 -668 -5.17 12,910 Covington 5,604 59.80 3,637 38.81 131 1.40 1,967 20.99 9,372 DeSoto 43,171 56.76 31,115 40.91 1,768 2.33 12,056 15.85 76,054 Forrest 16,079 50.81 14,871 46.99 695 2.20 1,208 3.82 31,645 Franklin 2,833 63.56 1,570 35.23 54 1.21 1,263 28.34 4,457 George 8,811 80.72 1,844 16.89 260 2.38 6,967 63.83 10,915 Greene 4,395 76.84 1,196 20.91 129 2.25 3,199 55.93 5,720 Grenada 5,654 51.72 5,120 46.84 157 1.44 534 4.88 10,931 Hancock 14,537 70.02 5,651 27.22 573 2.76 8,886 42.80 20,761 Harrison 43,180 57.04 30,367 40.12 2,152 2.84 12,813 16.93 75,699 Hinds 23,661 23.65 75,467 75.44 910 0.91 -51,806 -51.77 100,038 Holmes 1,230 15.25 6,798 84.30 36 0.45 -5,568 -69.05 8,064 Humphreys 1,023 24.43 3,135 74.88 29 0.69 -2,112 -50.44 4,187 Issaquena 309 45.37 367 53.89 5 0.73 -58 -8.52 681 Itawamba 8,818 82.04 1,680 15.63 251 2.33 7,138 66.41 10,749 Jackson 33,608 61.93 19,334 35.63 1,325 2.44 14,274 26.30 54,267 Jasper 4,102 46.88 4,556 52.07 92 1.05 -454 -5.19 8,750 Jefferson Davis 2,400 38.70 3,758 60.59 44 0.71 -1,358 -21.90 6,202 Jefferson 476 12.15 3,428 87.54 12 0.31 -2,952 -75.38 3,916 Jones 19,917 66.43 9,422 31.43 641 2.14 10,495 35.01 29,980 Kemper 1,720 36.40 2,965 62.75 40 0.85 -1,245 -26.35 4,725 Lafayette 12,127 51.90 10,806 46.25 432 1.85 1,321 5.65 23,365 Lamar 19,588 68.88 8,157 28.68 693 2.44 11,431 40.20 28,438 Lauderdale 17,082 54.89 13,537 43.50 501 1.61 3,545 11.39 31,120 Lawrence 4,222 64.00 2,318 35.14 57 0.86 1,904 28.86 6,597 Leake 4,991 54.21 4,123 44.79 92 1.00 868 9.43 9,206 Lee 22,739 61.70 13,372 36.28 745 2.02 9,367 25.42 36,856 Leflore 2,914 26.72 7,936 72.76 57 0.52 -5,022 -46.04 10,907 Lincoln 11,378 67.72 5,256 31.28 168 1.00 6,122 36.44 16,802 Lowndes 13,010 47.79 13,843 50.85 369 1.36 -833 -3.06 27,222 Madison 30,038 53.42 25,374 45.12 823 1.46 4,664 8.29 56,235 Marion 7,821 64.19 4,177 34.28 187 1.53 3,644 29.91 12,185 Marshall 6,904 43.96 8,590 54.69 212 1.35 -1,686 -10.74 15,706 Monroe 10,516 60.89 6,441 37.29 314 1.82 4,075 23.59 17,271 Montgomery 2,738 53.81 2,264 44.50 86 1.69 474 9.32 5,088 Neshoba 7,797 67.03 3,602 30.96 234 2.01 4,195 36.06 11,633 Newton 6,659 65.77 3,290 32.49 176 1.74 3,369 33.27 10,125 Noxubee 1,178 22.07 4,138 77.53 21 0.39 -2,960 -55.46 5,337 Oktibbeha 8,592 43.45 10,870 54.97 313 1.58 -2,278 -11.52 19,775 Panola 7,425 47.60 7,953 50.99 220 1.41 -528 -3.39 15,598 Pearl River 17,814 75.33 5,053 21.37 780 3.30 12,761 53.96 23,647 Perry 4,204 71.24 1,555 26.35 142 2.41 2,649 44.89 5,901 Pike 8,044 46.37 9,048 52.15 257 1.48 -1,004 -5.79 17,349 Pontotoc 10,803 75.52 3,164 22.12 337 2.36 7,639 53.40 14,304 Prentiss 7,651 72.22 2,714 25.62 229 2.16 4,937 46.60 10,594 Quitman 883 27.27 2,307 71.25 48 1.48 -1,424 -43.98 3,238 Rankin 48,502 68.82 20,315 28.82 1,664 2.36 28,187 39.99 70,481 Scott 5,933 55.28 4,649 43.31 151 1.41 1,284 11.96 10,733 Sharkey 663 30.40 1,511 69.28 7 0.32 -848 -38.88 2,181 Simpson 7,381 62.43 4,303 36.40 138 1.17 3,078 26.04 11,822 Smith 6,202 74.64 1,977 23.79 130 1.57 4,225 50.85 8,309 Stone 5,609 71.38 2,051 26.10 198 2.52 3,558 45.28 7,858 Sunflower 2,623 27.08 7,020 72.48 42 0.43 -4,397 -45.40 9,685 Tallahatchie 2,309 40.59 3,316 58.29 64 1.25 -1,007 -17.70 5,689 Tate 8,071 61.98 4,694 36.05 256 1.97 3,377 25.93 13,021 Tippah 7,394 73.69 2,432 24.24 208 2.07 4,962 49.45 10,034 Tishomingo 7,216 79.59 1,594 17.58 256 2.82 5,622 62.01 9,066 Tunica 814 22.78 2,717 76.04 42 1.18 -1,903 -53.26 3,573 Union 9,572 75.63 2,660 21.02 424 3.35 6,912 54.61 12,656 Walthall 4,005 56.54 2,993 42.25 86 1.21 1,012 14.29 7,084 Warren 9,912 47.18 10,853 51.65 246 1.17 -941 -4.48 21,011 Washington 4,891 26.94 13,155 72.46 109 0.60 -8,264 -45.52 18,155 Wayne 5,984 59.35 3,954 39.22 144 1.43 2,030 20.13 10,082 Webster 4,067 75.62 1,198 22.28 113 2.10 2,869 53.35 5,378 Wilkinson 1,295 31.76 2,702 66.27 80 1.96 -1,407 -32.06 4,077 Winston 4,846 52.32 4,303 46.45 114 1.23 543 5.86 9,263 Yalobusha 3,415 52.47 3,005 46.17 88 1.35 410 6.30 6,508 Yazoo 4,551 43.62 5,804 55.63 79 0.76 -1,253 -12.01 10,434 Totals 709,511 54.11 578,691 44.13 23,152 1.77 130,820 9.98 1,311,354

By congressional district

Hyde-Smith won three of four congressional districts. ^[56]

District	Hyde-Smith	Espy	Representative
1st	60%	38%	Trent Kelly
2nd	33%	66%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	58%	41%	Michael Guest
4th	63%	34%	Steven Palazzo

Notes

1. Edwards (L) with 3%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
2. Edwards (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
3. Not yet released
4. "Third party" with 3%
5. Edwards (L) with 3%
6. Includes "refused"
7. Listed as "other/undecided"

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Consumer Energy Alliance, which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
2. Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign
3. Poll conducted for the Mississippi Democratic Party.

References

1. "Mississippi Senate 2020 Race". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on April 21, 2021.
2. "HYDE-SMITH, CINDY – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
3. Lange, Alan (May 22, 2019). "Say it ain't so. Time to talk about the 2020 senate race already?". Y'all Politics. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
4. Douglas, William; Glueck, Katie (November 28, 2018). "Get ready: The fierce Mississippi Senate race may not be ending anytime soon". McClatchy. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
5. Ganucheau, Adam (November 12, 2019). "Former Miss America pageant leader mulls Sen. Hyde-Smith challenge in 2020 GOP primary". Mississippi Today. Retrieved November 15, 2019.
6. "2020 Candidates". maggieslist.org.
7. "2020 State Republican Party Certified Primary Election Results". MS GOP. June 3, 2020. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
8. "ESPY, MICHAEL – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
9. "Democrat Mike Espy starts 2020 US Senate bid in Mississippi". The Philadelphia Tribune. November 15, 2019.
10. "Mississippi will have Democratic primary for US Senate". AP NEWS. January 10, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
11. Ulmer, Sarah (June 17, 2019). "Unique candidate Jensen Bohren announces candidacy for 2020 U.S. Senate run" . Retrieved June 17, 2019.
12. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
13. "DSCC Endorses Mike Espy in Mississippi Senate Race". November 13, 2019.
14. "Our Candidates". Flip the Senate. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
15. Acosta, Lucas (March 4, 2020). "HRC Endorses Mike Espy for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign.^{[ dead link ‍]}
16. "2020 State Democratic Party Certified Primary Election Results". MS DEMS. June 3, 2020. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
17. Pettus, Emily (March 11, 2020). "Espy wins Mississippi US Senate primary, setting up rematch with Hyde-Smith". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
18. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
19. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
20. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
21. "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
22. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
23. "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
24. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
25. Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved September 18, 2020.
26. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
27. Geoff Pender (October 21, 2020). "Trump endorses Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi Senate race". Mississippi Today.
28. "Endorsed Candidates | CWF". www.cwfpac.com. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
29. "Mississippi". www.huckpac.com. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
30. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Mississippi". NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
31. "2020 Election HQ". Archived from the original on November 1, 2020.
32. "U.S. Chamber of Commerce again endorses Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for US Senate". www.yallpolitics.com. June 30, 2020. Today, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has again endorsed Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in her race to retain her seat against Democrat challenger Mike Espy.
33. "U.S. Senate Candidate Mike Espy receives endorsement from Joe Biden". WMC5. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
34. "Obama endorses Espy in Mississippi Senate Race". The Hill. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
35. "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Mike Espy for U.S. Senator". June 21, 2020.
36. Adam Ganucheau (October 22, 2020). "Rep. Bennie Thompson, Democratic kingmaker, throws full support behind Mike Espy in Senate race". Mississippi Today.
37. "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate Contests". AP.
38. Frank Corder (October 15, 2020). "Yang's PAC endorses Espy, says it gives Democrats better chance to pass universal basic income". Y'all Politics.
39. "2020 Endorsements" . Retrieved August 21, 2024.
40. "CBC Candidate: Mike Espy". Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 24, 2020.
41. "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
42. "Mississippi AFL-CIO endorses Mike Espy for Senate". April 7, 2020.
43. "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
44. Data For Progress
45. Civiqs/Daily Kos
46. The Progress Campaign (D)
47. Tyson Group (R)
48. Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
49. Public Policy Polling (D)
50. Impact Management Group (R) ^{[ permanent dead link ‍]}
51. The Progress Campaign (D)
52. Mason-Dixon Archived November 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
53. Chism Strategies
54. "AMENDED CERTIFICATION OF VOTE FOR UNITED STATES SENATE" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. December 7, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
55. "Total Votes Reported by Counties for 2020 General Election" (PDF). Statewide Election Management System. Secretary of State of Mississippi. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
56. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 21, 2024.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Mississippi", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Mississippi: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Mississippi". sState affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Mississippi at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Mike Espy (D) for Senate
• Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) for Senate