A decision desk is a team of experts that one or many US news organizations assemble to analyze incoming data about election results and project winners on election day. [1] [2] [3] [4] Decision desks use exit polling data as well as officially reported results as they come in, to project and then "call" the winners of elections on election night. [5]
Exit polling data was gathered by Voter News Service which existed from 1990 to 2003, and which was disbanded due to disastrous mistakes in the 2000 presidential election and in the 2002 elections. [6] [7] Afterward they formed the National Election Pool which produced skewed results in the 2004 US presidential election [8] and in the 2016 presidential elections. [5]
Megyn Kelly was made famous when she walked backstage to Fox News' decision desk team during the broadcast of the 2012 US presidential election results, when Karl Rove contradicted the team's prediction that Obama would win. [9] [10]
The Voter News Service was an exit polling consortium formed in 1990 by six major U.S. news media organizations. Its mission was to provide results for United States presidential elections, so that individual organizations and networks would not have to do exit polling and vote tallying in parallel.
The 2008 United States presidential election was the 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama, the junior U.S. Senator from Illinois, and Joe Biden, the senior U.S. Senator from Delaware, defeated the Republican ticket of John McCain, the senior Senator from Arizona, and Sarah Palin, the Governor of Alaska. Obama became the first African American ever to be elected to the presidency, as well as being only the third sitting United States Senator elected president, joining Warren G. Harding and John F. Kennedy.
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even months to count.
The Venezuelan recall referendum of 15 August 2004 was a referendum to determine whether Hugo Chávez, then President of Venezuela, should be recalled from office. The recall referendum was announced on 8 June 2004 by the National Electoral Council (CNE) after the Venezuelan opposition succeeded in collecting the number of signatures required by the 1999 Constitution to effect a recall.
John Prescott Ellis is a former American journalist and media consultant, and is now a partner in the venture-capital firm Sand Hills Partners. He is a nephew of former President of the United States George H. W. Bush and a first cousin of former President George W. Bush and former Governor of Florida John Ellis "Jeb" Bush.
The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of American news organizations formed in 2003 to provide exit polling information for US elections, replacing the Voter News Service which had failed disastrously in 2002.
During the 2004 United States elections, concerns were raised about various aspects of the voting process, including whether voting had been made accessible to all those entitled to vote, whether ineligible voters were registered, whether voters were registered multiple times, and whether the votes cast had been correctly counted. More controversial was the charge that these issues might have affected the reported outcome of the presidential election, in which the incumbent, Republican President George W. Bush, defeated the Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry. Despite the existing controversies, Kerry conceded the election the following day on November 3.
Warren J. Mitofsky was an American political pollster.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings.
The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
An election verification exit poll (EVEP) is a relatively new concept in polling, intended to improve the accuracy of exit polls to such an extent that they can be used to verify election results. Traditional (media) exit polling relies on small samples, wheres EVEPs propose to use larger samples.
The 2012 United States presidential election was the 57th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama, and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, were re-elected to a second term. They defeated the Republican ticket of businessman and former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 2012 reelection campaign of Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States, was formally announced on April 4, 2011. Along with his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, Barack Obama was opposed in the general election by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, along with various minor candidates from other parties. The election took place on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
PSB is a global custom research and analytics consultancy.
This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
This page lists nationwide public opinion polling among demographics that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election between prospective Democratic and Republican candidates. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.
The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Absentee voters could request a ballot for the general election anytime after 1 January 2020. Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Arnon Absalom Mishkin is an American management consultant, media personality and analyst who works for Fox News. Mishkin worked as a pollster under political consultant David Garth for the Democratic Party during electoral campaigns for Ed Koch, Tom Bradley and Mike Bloomberg among others. Mishkin worked for a number of consultancy agencies such as the Boston Consulting Group and the Mitchell Madison Group, and he operates his own consultancy firm known as Mishkin Associates. He joined the Fox Corporation in 1998 and became director of the Fox News Decision Desk for the 2012, 2016 and 2020 United States presidential elections.