Decision Desk HQ

Last updated

Decision Desk HQ
Ddhq-logo.png
Type of site
Election results
Available in English
Created byBrandon Finnigan
Services Providing election results and race calls
URL decisiondeskhq.com
CommercialYes
RegistrationNo
Launched2012
Current statusOnline

Decision Desk HQ is an American website that focuses on reporting election results in the United States. The company's president is Drew McCoy. Decision Desk HQ uses an application programming interface (API) to get election results at the same time as they are published on websites provided by election officials. As of April 2025, it currently has United States election coverage partnerships with Nexstar Media Group owned outlets The Hill and NewsNation, as well as Ballotpedia for U.S. local election coverage, along with others. It was the first provider to call the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.

Contents

History

Decision Desk HQ, originally named Ace of Spades Decision Desk, was founded in 2012 by Brandon Finnigan as an alternative to what he deemed "slow" election calls by the Associated Press. [1]

It has called major races since the 2012 United States elections, and it first became known for calling the upset defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor during his reelection bid to Virginia's 7th congressional district in 2014. [2]

In 2020, Decision Desk HQ was considered one of nine "official sources" for election results by Twitter [3] and provided election results to The Economist , BuzzFeed , Vox , and Business Insider . [4]

Decision Desk HQ was the first major election reporting organization to call the 2020 United States presidential election for Joe Biden. [4] The call was made shortly before 9 a.m. ET on Friday, November 6. [5] It made this call after projecting that Biden's lead in outstanding mail-in ballots from Pennsylvania left incumbent Donald Trump with no realistic path to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. McCoy told Vox that the great majority of mail-in ballots from Pennsylvania were from heavily Democratic areas around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. According to McCoy, Biden was winning the mail-in vote in those areas by a margin large enough to make his lead in the state insurmountable. By Decision Desk HQ's accounting, adding Pennsylvania to Biden's total gave Biden 273 electoral votes, three over the threshold to make him president-elect. [6] Vox, who partnered with Decision Desk HQ, called the election for Biden shortly after. [7] Statistician Nate Silver praised Decision Desk HQ's call and hoped other sources would follow suit. [8]

In November 2021, Decision Desk HQ acquired election news site Elections-Daily.com. [9] It also partnered with Europe Elects during the German and French elections of 2021 and 2022.[ citation needed ] During the 2022 United States elections, Decision Desk HQ provided election data to Nexstar Media Group owned media outlet NewsNation, ultimately calling control of Congress on November 15, 2022, 6:13 pm EST, a day before other media outlets. [10]

In November 2023, Decision Desk HQ announced a partnership with Nexstar Media Group owned The Hill and NewsNation for 2024 United States elections coverage. [11] Decision Desk HQ reprised providing election data to NewsNation, and was the first to call the 2024 United States presidential election for Donald Trump. [12]

In May 2024, Decision Desk HQ announced a partnership with Ballotpedia to provide real-time election results coverage for local elections in the United States. [13]

On March 31, 2025, Nexstar announced a continuation of its partnership with Decision Desk HQ for the 2025 and 2026 United States election coverage for NewsNation and The Hill. [14]

Notable errors

In 2018, Decision Desk HQ miscalled a close general election in California's 21st Congressional District for David Valadao who was beaten by Democrat T.J. Cox. [15] In 2020, they called the Missouri Congressional District 1 Democratic primary wrong, when Cori Bush beat incumbent Lacy Clay by almost three points. [16]

On November 6, 2025, Decision Desk HQ projected Bruce Harrell as the winner of the 2025 Seattle mayoral election, but then retracted it the next day. A spokesperson for Decision Desk HQ stated it was due to receiving incorrect data on the number of remaining ballots, but this was disputed by King County elections. [17] Harrell's opponent Katie Wilson would ultimately win the election. [18]

On February 5, 2026, DDHQ projected Tom Malinowski the winner of the Democratic primary for the 2026 NJ-11 Special election. The seat became vacant following the resignation of Mikie Sherrill, who resigned from her seat after being elected the Governor of New Jersey in 2025. Later in the night, Analilia Mejia, one of Malinowski's opponents, took a small lead over him, causing DDHQ to remove the projection. [19] On February 10, Malinowski conceded the race to Mejia. [20] [21]

Decision Desk HQ Votes

On November 4, 2025, Decision Desk HQ announced their new platform for viewing election results, called Decision Desk HQ Votes. [22] The new platform was announced on the same page where the 2025 United States election results were being shown. [23] DDHQ Votes was released to the public on March 2, 2026. The new platform lets the user see state and federal results from present-2000, see results maps, raw vote margin maps, and swing maps for "every important race", and has an integration of live Kalshi and Polymarket betting odds for the races. [22] The site is currently in beta.

Decision Desk HQ News

In 2021, Decision Desk HQ announced the creation of Decision Desk HQ News and the subsequent acquisition of its first site: Elections Daily. The new undertakings are designed to expand Decision Desk HQ's local news and international elections coverage. [24]

Staff

The majority owner of Decision Desk HQ and its director of data science is Scott Tranter. [25] [26] He is a co-founder of the political data firm Øptimus Analytics [27] and previously served as Director of Data Science for Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. [28]

Drew McCoy is the president of Decision Desk HQ. [14] Under his leadership, the organization has partnered with major media outlets for election data and was the first to project Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, calling the race on November 6, 2020, before other networks. [2]

Michael Pruser is the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ. [29] He oversees the organization's election data analysis and systems, and has been noted for closely tracking voter registration trends and other electoral insights cited by national political analysts. [29]

Geoffrey Skelley is the chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ. He previously served as a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight (ABC News), where he covered U.S. politics and elections. [30] [31] Before that, he was an associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, where he contributed to the publication's ratings and analysis of congressional and gubernatorial races. [32]

Zachary Donnini is the data scientist at Decision Desk HQ. [33] [34] He graduated from Yale University in 2025, where he majored in Statistics & Data Science and Economics. [35] He joined DDHQ in 2022 and works on vote-count collection and real-time election forecasting models. He co-authored an article published in the Harvard Data Science Review detailing the team's live-election predictive modeling framework for calling races as results come in. [36]

See also

References

  1. Smith, Ben (September 25, 2014). "A Right-Wing Truck Dispatcher Is America's Fairest New Election Night Vote Counter". BuzzFeed News . Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  2. 1 2 Lahut, Jake (November 6, 2020). "Why Decision Desk HQ and Insider called the election for Joe Biden". Business Insider. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  3. Gadde, Vijaya; Beykpour, Kayvon (October 9, 2020). "Additional steps we're taking ahead of the 2020 US Election". Twitter . Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  4. 1 2 Nover, Scott (November 6, 2020). "Meet Decision Desk, the First to Call the Election for Joe Biden". AdWeek . Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  5. Hanke, Michael; Stöckl, Sebastian; Weissensteiner, Alex (March 1, 2022). "Recovering election winner probabilities from stock prices". Finance Research Letters. 45 102122. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102122 . ISSN   1544-6123.
  6. Prokop, Andrew (November 6, 2020). "Why Decision Desk called Pennsylvania, and the presidential race, for Joe Biden". Vox . Archived from the original on November 6, 2020. Retrieved November 7, 2020.
  7. LaForme, Ren; Grau, Mel (November 6, 2020). "Vox.com, working with Decision Desk HQ, was one of the first news outlets to call the election". Poynter . Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  8. Levin, Josh (November 6, 2020). "Decision Desk HQ Was First to Call the Election for Biden. What Is Decision Desk HQ?". Slate Magazine . Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  9. "Decision Desk HQ Announces Formation of Decision Desk HQ News and Acquisition of Elections-Daily.com | DDHQ". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved June 21, 2024.
  10. "NewsNation first to call US House of Representatives". NewsNation . November 17, 2022. Retrieved November 21, 2022.
  11. "The Hill and Decision Desk HQ Announce New 2024 Election Partnership | DDHQ". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved June 21, 2024.
  12. Samuels, Brett (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump wins presidency, Kamala Harris loses in tight election". The Hill. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  13. "Ballotpedia and Decision Desk HQ Partner To Offer Real-time Local Election Results Coverage". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved June 21, 2024.
  14. 1 2 "NewsNation, The Hill, and Decision Desk HQ Announce Partnership for 2025 and 2026 Elections" (Press release). Nexstar Media Group. March 31, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  15. Matthews, David; Steiger, Kay (November 6, 2020). "How the press calls elections, explained". Vox . Retrieved February 19, 2024.
  16. "State of Missouri - State of Missouri - Primary Election, August 04, 2020" . Retrieved February 19, 2024.
  17. "Decision Desk HQ retracts call projecting Harrell's victory in Seattle mayor's race". KUOW. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  18. Kronan, David (November 12, 2025). ""Katie Wilson elected Seattle's next mayor"". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 15, 2025.
  19. Decision Desk HQ [@DecisionDeskHQ] (February 5, 2026). "Decision Desk HQ is retracting its projection in the NJ-11 Democratic primary. We have deleted the race projection tweet. At the time of our initial projection, all absentee and early vote had been recorded in all three counties, and we had 66/240 precincts in Essex County (expected to be Analilia Mejia strongest) that had reported election day vote & two election day vote drops in Morris County (expected to be Thomas Malinowski's strongest). Malinowski had a 4,900 raw vote lead, and the margin he was losing the election day vote in Essex combined with the margin he was winning the election day vote in Morris, provided him a sizable cushion. Even if Mejia's projected margins were doubled, Malinowski was still projected to win by more than 1,000 votes. As the night progressed, margins in Morris County quickly tilted toward Mejia; Mejia began winning drops by 20%-30%, representing a swing of 65 points compared to the absentee vote. This trend reversal prompted us to re-examine our race projection and ultimately retract it. Our apologies for the inaccurate projection on this race, and we hope our swift retraction and transparency are seen as a sign of our intent to be quick and accurate in all things elections now and going forward. XXXXXXXX" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  20. https://19thnews.org/2026/02/analilia-mejia-new-jersey-primary/
  21. https://newjersey.news12.com/analilia-mejia-wins-democratic-primary-for-11th-district-special-election
  22. 1 2 "Decision Desk HQ VOTES". votes.decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved November 5, 2025.
  23. "November 4, 2025 Live Election Results | DDHQ". election-night.decisiondeskhq.com. Archived from the original on November 5, 2025. Retrieved November 5, 2025.
  24. "Decision Desk HQ Announces Formation Of Decision Desk HQ News And Acquisition Of Elections-Daily.com". November 1, 2021. Retrieved November 1, 2021.
  25. "Decision Desk HQ on calling the 2024 Presidential Election". World of DaaS. November 27, 2024. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  26. "Leading U.S. decision-desk operation selects Georgetown's McCourt School as its 2024 election hub". Georgetown University. February 12, 2024. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  27. Levy, Rachael (November 7, 2016). "Wall Street's biggest investors have their own expensive election polls that the public rarely sees". Business Insider. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  28. "Scott Tranter – Founder, Øptimus". Concordia. September 21, 2018. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  29. 1 2 Kilgore, Ed (August 20, 2025). "Obituaries for the Democratic Party Are Premature". New York Magazine (Intelligencer). Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  30. "Why these voters are considering third-party options in the 2024 presidential race". ABC News. May 28, 2024. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  31. "Will RFK Jr. and third-party contenders even make the ballot in November?". ABC News. June 24, 2024. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  32. Sabato, Larry J.; Kyle Kondik (October 4, 2018). "House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  33. "Liz Cheney to back slate of Democrats in 2026 elections". The Hill. August 21, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  34. "Meet the Yale Youth Poll Team". Yale University. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  35. "Yale College ‒ Candidates for Degrees". Yale University. 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
  36. Donnini, Zachary; Louit, Sydney; Wilcox, Shelby; Ram, Mukul; McCaul, Patrick; Frank, Arianwyn; Rigby, Matt; Gowins, Max; and Tranter, Scott (October 18, 2024). "Election Night Forecasting With DDHQ: A Real-Time Predictive Framework". Harvard Data Science Review . 6 (4). doi: 10.1162/99608f92.ccb395f0 .