Kalshi Inc. is an American web-based prediction betting platform launched in July 2021, mostly used for traditional sports betting, which constitutues more than 90% of the activity on the site[1][2], accounting for 89% of the site's revenue in 2025.[3] Activity on the site is described as "heavily tied to the sports calendar" by analysts.[2]
To a smaller extent, the platform is also used to place bets on future events, including economic indicators, cultural events and most controversially, political outcomes for which the platform received much media attention.
The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its political betting markets and the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues.[4] Concerns over election integrity and decreasing public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting were raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians.
Scholars have challenged that Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes.[5]
History
In 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara,[6] two financial analysts. Initially, the project was briefly known as "Kownig".[7]
In November 2020, the website attained a license from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission registering the casino as a designated contract market.[8][9][10] The site was publicly launched in July 2021.[11]
Beginning in 2022, Kalshi’s attempts to offer political and election-related betting faced sustained legal and regulatory challenges from the CFTC.[12][13][14] The CFTC delayed decisions on these contracts, questioning whether they constituted valid risk-hedging tools and if they served the public interest. Internal disagreement emerged, with Commissioner Caroline Pham dissenting and arguing the contracts were not prohibited and did not require a public-interest test.[15]
In 2023, another monthslong legal dispute began between Kalshi and the CFTC. Kalshi repeated that its contracts serve the public interest. In contrast, the CFTC contends that these contracts constitute illegal gambling and that it lacks the resources to oversee them effectively. Chairman Rostin Behnam has cautioned that allowing election contracts could "ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity" of the electoral process.[16] Despite revised proposals allowing very large bets by hedge funds and institutions, the CFTC ultimately rejected Kalshi’s congressional control contracts in September 2023. Kalshi responded by suing the agency, claiming it exceeded its authority.[17][18][19][20]
After a 2024 ruling by the DC District Court CFTC had overstepped by blocking the contracts, and an appellate court later rejecting the CFTC’s request for a stay, Kalshi was allowed to relaunch its congressional control betting operations.[21][22][16][23]
In 2025, Kalshi signed formal partnerships with media outlets CNN and CNBC, possibly bringing betting odds into NFL television broadcasts, as is already common for data from traditional sportsbooks.[26][27][28] A volume of $3-5 billion was bet on NFL games, with Barron's saying that "Kalshi [...] Need[s] the NFL.[27] Mansour said "The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion."[29]
Controversies
Efforts to make the site accessible for younger audiences
In 2025, Kalshi engaged in efforts to create a "student ambassadors" program where students could sign up to promote Kalshi on their campuses, in order to "[bring] the next 100M users to prediction markets." Following backlash, the related social media post and webpage have been taken down.[30][31]
Betting on Gaza
The site has been heavily criticized for including and thus capitalizing life-and-death issues, such as whether Gaza would be bombed by Israel and the Palestinian population would be suffering from a food shortage.[32][33][34][35][36]
Opposition to Kalshi's election betting
While Kalshi argues that betting on political event would improve oversight to political and economic developments while also providing accurate forecasting data (which has been challenged by scholars),[5] critics such as Consumer advocacy groups like Better Markets contend that election betting could undermine election integrity and public trust by turning elections into speculative trading vehicles.[22] In August 2023, in a letter to the CTFC, Democratic senators Jeff Merkley, Sheldon Whitehouse, Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen and Dianne Feinstein urged the CFTC to reject Kalshi's proposal, raising concerns over electoral integrity. The 2024 ruling that permitted Kalshi to relaunch its election outcome betting was described as "a sad and ominous day for election integrity.", by Stephen Hall of Better Markets.[16][37]
Holding back payouts of won NFL bets
In January 2026, users who held correct positions on certain NFL bets were only repaid their original stake, rather than the full winnings. Only following backlash by many users and gambling industry analyst Dustin Gouker, Kalshi reacted and paid out the users.[38]
Lawsuits
Massachusetts
In September 2025, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit which accused Kalshi of "promoting and accepting sports wagers" without following Massachusetts gambling laws, as the practice is banned there.[39]
In January 2026, a Massachusetts Superior Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, effectively banning the platform from offering sports based betting within the state. Under the court order, Kalshi was required to implement geofencing technology to block Massachusetts residents from accessing sports related markets on its platform.[40]
New York
In November 2025, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against Kalshi in New York state, alleging that Kalshi "engaged in illegal deceptive activity, and unjustly enriched itself at the expense of tens of thousands of consumers," by operating unlicensed sports betting as well as leading users to unknowingly bet against Kalshi or its partners rather than against other users. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara called the lawsuit "baseless."[41]
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