Original author(s) |
|
---|---|
Developer(s) | Forecast Foundation OÜ |
Repository | github |
Written in | Solidity and TypeScript |
Platform | Ethereum |
Available in | English |
Type | Prediction Market Platform |
License | Free software (GPL) |
Website | www |
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. [1] Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. [2] Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin. [3]
Augur allows any user to create a prediction market on any topic. [4]
There are two kinds of markets:
"Invalid" is one of the outcomes in all markets, which is intended to help prevent scam markets and ensure that market questions and resolutions are unambiguous. [6]
To resolve markets, "reporting" fees are used to incentivize the reporting of market outcomes. [7] [8] Augur uses an ERC-20 token called REPv2 to incentivize reporters on its network to back their reports with tokens. [7] The REPv2 token holders are entitled to the trading fees generated on the platform. [7] [1] Augur's security model has been rigorously quantified and shown to be secure. [7] [9] Augur runs on Ethereum. [7] [10]
After a crowdfunding in August 2015, the project launched in July 2018. [11]
Soon after the platform launched, users had created death pools — or assassination markets — on famous people. [3] [12] [13]
Augur's user numbers dropped off sharply after launch in 2018: from 265 daily users in early July, to 37 on 8 August. [11]
In July 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted resemblance of the Augur contracts to binary options, which would fall under its jurisdiction. [3] Augur's decentralised design may allow it to sidestep regulatory difficulties, because Augur is just a protocol that allows users to set up their own prediction market, which developer Joseph Krug says "shift(s) legal responsibility to bettors". [11]
In July 2020, Augur v2 was released. It included dramatic changes including the usage of DAI (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) for trading, faster resolution of market outcomes (24 hours vs. v1's 7 days), a more user-friendly interface, making "Invalid" a tradeable outcome, allowing market creators to add affiliate fees to encourage others to share the market, and allowing the creation of orders without any fees. [6]
Forbes described Augur v2 as "a significant leap forward in the world of decentralized applications that function similar to the internet but without the need for trusted third parties. If successful, the profound upgrades could be used to more than just place horse-bets without a bookie; they could mark a turning point in the next generation of the internet." [6]
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A typical prediction market contract is set up to trade between 0 and 100%. The most common form of a prediction market is a binary option market, which will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the contracts are considered as the aggregated belief.
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