 | |
| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | 2021 |
| Founder(s) | Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett |
| URL | manifold |
| Current status | Active |
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. [4]
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. [5]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. [6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, [7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. [8]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. [6]
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 100 mana = $1 (USD), but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise, [9] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling. [6] [10] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap". [11]
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to and distinct from economics, which is the study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. Based on the scope of financial activities in financial systems, the discipline can be divided into personal, corporate, and public finance.
Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds betting or parimutuel betting.
A mutual fund is an investment fund that pools money from many investors to purchase securities. The term is typically used in the United States, Canada, and India, while similar structures across the globe include the SICAV in Europe, and the open-ended investment company (OEIC) in the UK.
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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.
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The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book presents numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate its argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology.
A pairs trade or pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy enabling traders to profit from virtually any market conditions: uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. This strategy is categorized as a statistical arbitrage and convergence trading strategy. Pair trading was pioneered by Gerry Bamberger and later led by Nunzio Tartaglia's quantitative group at Morgan Stanley in the 1980s.
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Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
The first introduction of a mutual fund in India occurred in 1963, when the Government of India launched the Unit Trust of India (UTI). Mutual funds are broadly categorised into three segments: equity funds, hybrid funds, and debt funds.
Med Jones is an American economist. He is the president of International Institute of Management, a U.S. based research organization. His work at the institute focuses on economic, investment, and business strategies.
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Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin.
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Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.