Manifold (prediction market)

Last updated
Manifold
Manifold twitter logo.jpg
Available inEnglish
FoundedDecember 2021;3 years ago (December 2021)
Founder(s) Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
URL manifold.markets
Current statusActive

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars. [4]

Contents

Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28, 2025. [5]

History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Stephen Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. [6]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. [7] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, [8] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. [9]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny. [7] The conference was hosted again in 2024 and 2025. [10]

Market structure

The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap". [11] Formerly, Manifold supported Sweepcash which could be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee. [12] One unit of Sweepcash was equivalent to $1 USD.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox . 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
  2. ↑ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  3. ↑ Taylor, Michael. "Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  4. ↑ Henshall, Will (2024-02-14). "Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love". TIME . Retrieved 2024-02-14.
  5. ↑ "Mana forever!". manifoldmarkets.notion.site. Retrieved 2025-02-19.
  6. ↑ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  7. 1 2 Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2023-10-08.
  8. ↑ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  9. ↑ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  10. ↑ "Manifest". www.manifest.is. Retrieved 2025-06-26.
  11. ↑ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv: 2302.00196 [cs.GT].
  12. ↑ https://docs.manifold.markets/sweepstakes
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