 | |
| Developer(s) | Shayne Coplan |
|---|---|
| Platform | Polygon |
| Available in | English |
| Type | Prediction market platform |
| License | Free software (GPL) |
| Website | polymarket |
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcome of world events. Participants can deposit USDC through the Polygon network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in the future.
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, [1] Polymarket is an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events. [2] In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. [3] [4] According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine. [1]
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board. [5] In May 2024, the company announced that it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds. [6] These rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel. [1]
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral; [7] the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date, [7] rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers. [8] Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force. [8]
In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform, [6] with over $1 billion (as of September 25, 2024) [9] wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. [1] Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight , became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024. [10] The site allows users to leave comments on markets. However, the content is largely unmoderated.
Polymarket uses the Universal Market Access (UMA) protocol to settle its markets. When users propose a new market, they must stake a bond, typically amounting to $750. Following a proposal, there is waiting period of approximately 2 hours during which the other users can dispute the proposed resolution. If no dispute is raised within this period, the user will get a reward, usually around $5 for their proposal.
In cases where there is a dispute, the proposal is escalated to UMA for a voting process. If the original proposal is affirmed as correct through the vote, the proposer is refunded their original bond, along with a portion of the disputer's bond, for example, $250 from a $750 bond. Conversely, if the proposal is voted to be incorrect, the disputer regains their bond and receives a share of the original proposer's bond.
Gambling is the wagering of something of value on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration, risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season.
Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds betting or parimutuel betting.
Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction is correct, they receive a payout based on the fixed odds. This means that the potential winnings are known at the time of placing the bet, regardless of any changes in the odds leading up to the event.
In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the probability of a particular outcome. Odds are commonly used in gambling and statistics. For example for an event that is 40% probable, one could say that the odds are "2 in 5","2 to 3 in favor", or "3 to 2 against".
Online casinos, also known as virtual casinos or Internet casinos, are online versions of traditional casinos. Online casinos enable gamblers to play and wager on casino games through the Internet. It is a prolific form of online gambling.
Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome.
Online gambling is any kind of gambling conducted on the internet. This includes virtual poker, casinos, and sports betting. The first online gambling venue opened to the general public was ticketing for the Liechtenstein International Lottery in October 1994. Today, the market is worth around $40 billion globally each year, according to various estimates.
Mobile gambling refers to playing games of chance or skill for money by using a remote device such as a tablet computer, smartphone or a mobile phone with a wireless internet connection. Over a hundred mobile casinos were operating as of December 2013, with most of the big casino operators in gambling now providing a mobile platform for their player base.
A prediction game is a game which allow users to guess at the outcome of future events. Prediction games are generally operated online and are free for users to play. Points are awarded to players who most accurately predict the outcome of an event, and those points are converted into cash prizes.248
Intrade.com was a web-based trading exchange whose members "traded" contracts between each other on the probabilities of various events occurring. After having been forced to exclude US traders in 2012, on 10 March 2013 Intrade suspended all trading, citing possible "financial irregularities". For a time after the suspension, the intrade.com website stated that they were working on a relaunch of the site, called "Intrade 2.0", but as of August 2014 it states that "It appears very unlikely now that Intrade will resume trading services in the way it had operated previously", and announced plans to close all accounts and refund monies by 31 December 2014.
PredictIt is a New Zealand–based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington with support from Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is located in Washington, D.C. Only United States citizens can bet on the site.
Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin.
Kraken is a United States–based cryptocurrency exchange, founded in 2011. It was one of the first bitcoin exchanges to be listed on Bloomberg Terminal and was valued at US$3 billion in January 2024. The company has been the subject of several regulatory investigations since 2018, and has agreed to cumulative fines of over $30 million.
Gemini Trust Company, LLC (Gemini) is an American cryptocurrency exchange and custodian bank. It was founded in 2014 by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.
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Binance Holdings Ltd., branded Binance, is a global company that operates the largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies. Binance was founded in 2017 by Changpeng Zhao, a developer who had previously created high-frequency trading software. Binance was initially based in China, then moved to Japan shortly before the Chinese government restricted cryptocurrency companies. Binance subsequently left Japan for Malta and currently has no official company headquarters.
BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform. It is owned and operated by HDR Global Trading Limited, which is registered in the Seychelles.
Crypto.com is a cryptocurrency exchange company based in Singapore that offers various financial services, including an app, exchange, and noncustodial DeFi wallet, NFT marketplace, and direct payment service in cryptocurrency. As of June 2023, the company reportedly had 80 million customers and 4,000 employees. The exchange issues its own exchange token named Cronos (CRO).
Stake is an Australian-Curaçaoan online casino. It is operated by Medium Rare NV, a company incorporated in Curaçao where it holds an online casino licence. It is a global company with offices in Serbia, Australia, Cyprus and staff globally.
Kalshi Inc. is an American financial exchange and prediction market offering event contracts. The platform was launched in July 2021. Kalshi has been described as a potential "new competitor for PredictIt", though Kalshi does not currently oversee election contracts.
Polymarket has raised $70 million across two rounds, with the most recent raise led by Founders Fund...