2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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Nominee Tom Cotton Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. Party Republican Libertarian Popular vote 793,871 399,390 Percentage 66.53% 33.47%

County results Congressional district results Township results Precinct results Cotton:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Harrington:     50–60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%     >90% Tie:     50%

U.S. senator before election Tom Cotton Republican Elected U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican senator Tom Cotton won reelection to a second term, defeating Libertarian challenger Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. Though Cotton outperformed President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by 4.1%, the election saw an undervote of 26,000 compared to the presidential election. Harrington's 33.5% finish was the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election by vote percentage, surpassing Joe Miller's vote share in the 2016 Alaska race, ^{[1] [2]} and also by total number of votes, surpassing Michael Cloud's total in the 2002 Massachusetts race. It was also the highest vote percentage ever won by a Libertarian candidate in any U.S. statewide race, surpassing John Monds's vote share in the 2008 Georgia Public Service Commission race. Per exit polls, this largely appears to be due to many Democrats deciding to pick Harrington as there was no Democratic candidate on the ballot (82% of Democratic voters backed Harrington). ^[3] Harrington won three counties, all of which were also won by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. This election marks the first time since 2004 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Arkansas for the Class 2 United States Senate seat was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent presidential election.

Republican nominee

In 2018, Tom Cotton, the incumbent U.S. senator, announced that he would run for re-election in 2020. ^[4] Without any opposing candidates, there was not a contested primary, so Cotton automatically won the Republican nomination. ^[5]

Libertarian nominee

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., Christian missionary and prison chaplain, announced that he would seek the Libertarian nomination. ^[6] He subsequently became the Libertarian nominee. ^[7]

Withdrawn candidates

Democratic Party

Josh Mahony was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary; however, he withdrew his candidacy due to a "family health concern" on November 12, 2019. ^[8] Because Mahony dropped out after the filing deadline, the Democratic Party of Arkansas could only nominate a replacement if the candidate died, became seriously ill, left the state, or filed for another office. As a result, the Democratic Party of Arkansas was not able to fill the vacancy. ^{[9] [10]} A memo from the Cotton campaign to supporters detailed a strategy of sitting on opposition research regarding Mahony's employment history until after the filing deadline had passed. ^[11]

Withdrawn

• Josh Mahony, nonprofit executive, former chair of the Fayetteville Airport Commission, and nominee for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018 ^[8]

Declined

• Wesley Clark, retired General, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate ^[12]

Independents

Withdrawn

• Dan Whitfield, progressive activist. On June 25, 2020, Whitfield's petition to run was denied for failing to gain enough signatures, an effort that was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Whitfield filed an appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit in an attempt to overturn this ruling. He officially suspended his campaign on October 1. ^[13]

General election

Harrington speaking at an event focused on criminal justice reform in Springdale, October 25, 2020

In public comments, Harrington spoke about excessive partisanship in the election process itself and in Senate operations, such as the contentious nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. ^[14] Cotton declined to attend a debate hosted by Arkansas PBS, leaving Harrington as the sole participant. Harrington spent the debate responding to questions put to him by a panel of journalists. ^{[15] [16]}

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [17]	Solid R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections [18]	Safe R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [20]	Safe R	October 30, 2020
Politico [21]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
RCP [22]	Safe R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ [23]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538 [24]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
Economist [25]	Safe R	November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)

U.S. Federal Officials

• Justin Amash, U.S. representative from Michigan's 3rd congressional district ^[26]

Other individuals

• Spike Cohen, Libertarian Party's 2020 vice presidential nominee ^[27]
• Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian Party's 2020 presidential nominee ^[28]

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Tom Cotton (R)	Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)	Other	Undecided
University of Arkansas	October 9–21, 2020	591 (LV)	± 3.9%	75%	20%	5%	–
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics	October 11–13, 2020	647 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	28%	–	10%
American Research Group (L) [upper-alpha 1]	October 7–9, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	49%	38%	–	13%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2020 ^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tom Cotton (incumbent)	793,871	66.53%	+10.03%
	Libertarian	Ricky Dale Harrington Jr.	399,390	33.47%	+31.44%
Total votes			1,193,261	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

By county

County [30] Tom Cotton Republican Ricky Harrington Jr. Libertarian Margin Total votes # % # % # % Arkansas 4,567 75.26 1,501 24.74 3,066 50.53 6,068 Ashley 5,801 74.85 1,949 25.15 3,852 49.70 7,750 Baxter 16,094 78.95 4,292 21.05 11,802 57.89 20,386 Benton 76,068 64.75 41,417 35.25 34,651 29.49 117,485 Boone 13,753 81.83 3,054 18.17 10,699 63.66 16,807 Bradley 2,485 69.74 1,078 30.26 1,407 39.49 3,563 Calhoun 1,714 80.02 428 19.98 1,286 60.04 2,142 Carroll 7,676 66.22 3,916 33.78 3,760 32.44 11,592 Chicot 1,945 53.23 1,709 46.77 236 6.46 3,654 Clark 5,089 63.08 2,978 36.92 2,111 26.17 8,067 Clay 4,196 82.29 903 17.71 3,293 64.58 5,099 Cleburne 10,602 84.36 1,966 15.64 8,636 68.71 12,568 Cleveland 2,987 83.98 570 16.02 2,417 67.95 3,557 Columbia 5,776 71.39 2,315 28.61 3,461 42.78 8,091 Conway 5,936 69.49 2,606 30.51 3,330 38.98 8,542 Craighead 26,342 69.45 11,588 30.55 14,754 38.90 37,930 Crawford 18,825 78.30 5,216 21.70 13,609 56.61 24,041 Crittenden 7,969 52.74 7,141 47.26 828 5.48 15,110 Cross 5,085 75.21 1,676 24.79 3,409 50.42 6,761 Dallas 1,730 68.11 810 31.89 920 36.22 2,540 Desha 2,299 57.43 1,704 42.57 595 14.86 4,003 Drew 4,567 68.05 2,144 31.95 2,423 36.10 6,711 Faulkner 35,278 65.98 18,192 34.02 17,086 31.95 53,470 Franklin 5,645 79.97 1,414 20.03 4,231 59.94 7,059 Fulton 4,030 80.89 952 19.11 3,078 61.78 4,982 Garland 30,420 69.52 13,336 30.48 17,084 39.04 43,756 Grant 6,883 84.34 1,278 15.66 5,605 68.68 8,161 Greene 12,820 81.03 3,002 18.97 9,818 62.05 15,822 Hempstead 4,742 71.63 1,878 28.37 2,864 43.26 6,620 Hot Spring 9,388 75.83 2,993 24.17 6,395 51.65 12,381 Howard 3,549 75.57 1,147 24.43 2,402 51.15 4,696 Independence 11,530 80.92 2,719 19.08 8,811 61.84 14,249 Izard 4,724 82.91 974 17.09 3,750 65.81 5,698 Jackson 3,732 75.95 1,182 24.05 2,550 51.89 4,914 Jefferson 11,295 46.84 12,821 53.16 -1,526 -6.33 24,116 Johnson 7,044 75.01 2,347 24.99 4,697 50.02 9,391 Lafayette 1,836 72.17 708 27.83 1,128 44.35 2,544 Lawrence 4,768 82.62 1,003 17.38 3,765 65.24 5,771 Lee 1,410 55.40 1,135 44.60 275 10.80 2,545 Lincoln 2,907 76.50 893 23.50 2,014 53.00 3,800 Little River 3,885 77.36 1,137 22.64 2,748 54.72 5,022 Logan 6,524 79.78 1,654 20.22 4,870 59.55 8,178 Lonoke 23,504 77.34 6,887 22.66 16,617 54.68 30,391 Madison 5,627 78.06 1,582 21.94 4,045 56.11 7,209 Marion 5,928 80.43 1,442 19.57 4,486 60.87 7,370 Miller 12,251 76.43 3,778 23.57 8,473 52.86 16,029 Mississippi 7,792 66.66 3,898 33.34 3,894 33.31 11,690 Monroe 1,717 63.06 1,006 36.94 711 26.11 2,723 Montgomery 3,116 81.59 703 18.41 2,413 63.18 3,819 Nevada 2,292 71.07 933 28.93 1,359 42.14 3,225 Newton 3,155 81.25 728 18.75 2,427 62.50 3,883 Ouachita 5,787 62.12 3,529 37.88 2,258 24.24 9,316 Perry 3,553 77.80 1,014 22.20 2,539 55.59 4,567 Phillips 2,785 49.16 2,880 50.84 -95 -1.68 5,665 Pike 3,594 85.47 611 14.53 2,983 70.94 4,205 Poinsett 6,092 82.15 1,324 17.85 4,768 64.29 7,416 Polk 7,083 84.25 1,324 15.75 5,759 68.50 8,407 Pope 18,411 76.24 5,739 23.76 12,672 52.47 24,150 Prairie 2,849 84.09 539 15.91 2,310 68.18 3,388 Pulaski 71,966 43.42 93,784 56.58 -21,818 -13.16 165,750 Randolph 5,487 82.07 1,199 17.93 4,288 64.13 6,686 Saline 41,443 73.33 15,073 26.67 26,370 46.66 56,516 Scott 3,017 85.59 508 14.41 2,509 71.18 3,525 Searcy 3,337 84.80 598 15.20 2,739 69.61 3,935 Sebastian 31,997 68.37 14,804 31.63 17,193 36.74 46,801 Sevier 4,105 80.35 1,004 19.65 3,101 60.70 5,109 Sharp 6,092 82.19 1,320 17.81 4,772 64.38 7,412 St. Francis 3,606 55.66 2,873 44.34 733 11.31 6,479 Stone 4,637 79.32 1,209 20.68 3,428 58.64 5,846 Union 11,292 70.46 4,733 29.54 6,559 40.93 16,025 Van Buren 6,135 80.15 1,519 19.85 4,616 60.31 7,654 Washington 49,361 53.33 43,205 46.67 6,156 6.65 92,566 White 24,887 80.91 5,872 19.09 19,015 61.82 30,759 Woodruff 1,694 70.03 725 29.97 969 40.06 2,419 Yell 5,363 80.24 1,321 19.76 4,042 60.47 6,684 Totals 793,871 66.53 399,390 33.47 394,481 33.06 1,193,261 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Chicot (largest municipality: Dermott) Clark (largest municipality: Arkadelphia) Crittenden (largest municipality: West Memphis) Desha (largest municipality: Dumas) Lee (largest municipality: Marianna) Mississippi (largest municipality: Blytheville) Monroe (largest municipality: Brinkley) Ouachita (largest municipality: Camden) St. Francis (largest municipality: Forrest City) Woodruff (largest municipality: Augusta) Counties that flipped from Democratic to Libertarian Jefferson (largest municipality: Pine Bluff) Phillips (largest municipality: Helena–West Helena) Pulaski (largest municipality: Little Rock)

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Harrington's campaign.

See also

• 2020 Arkansas elections

References

1. "Cotton win good news, say parties of two rivals". Arkansas Online. November 7, 2020. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
2. "Joe Miller Shatters Libertarian US Senate Record While 8 Others Set New State Party Marks". Smart Politics. November 20, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
3. Voter Analysis, Fox News. "Fox News Voter Analysis Survey, Arkansas Senate Race". Fox News. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
4. "Sen. Cotton says he's running for reelection in 2020". Associated Press News. August 8, 2018.
5. Giroux, Greg (March 3, 2020). "How to Watch Super Tuesday Congressional Primary Results". Bloomberg Government . Retrieved January 20, 2022.
6. "Harrington to challenge Cotton in 2020 election". Pine Bluff Commercial. October 7, 2019. Archived from the original on November 13, 2019. Retrieved November 13, 2019.
7. Brantley, Max (July 28, 2020). "There is an alternative to Tom Cotton". Arkansas Times . Retrieved January 20, 2022.
8. "Two hours after filing period ends, Democrat Josh Mahony drops out of U.S. Senate race". Arkansas Democrat Gazette. November 12, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
9. Brock, Roby (November 13, 2019). "Arkansas law suggests Mahony exit likely leaves Cotton without Democratic opponent" . Retrieved November 14, 2019.
10. "There won't be an Arkansas Democrat challenging Sen. Cotton in 2020 election". thv11.com. November 25, 2019.
11. Lockwood, Frank E. (November 17, 2019). "Memo shows strategy for attack on Cotton opponent". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette . Little Rock: Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. Retrieved December 15, 2019.
12. Lockwood, Frank E. (April 29, 2019). "Retired general Wesley Clark rules out '20 run". ArkansasOnline. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
13. Gilker, Kathryn (October 1, 2020). "Dan Whitfield suspends US senate race after not getting on the ballot". KFSM-TV 5NEWS. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
14. "Libertarian Senate candidate Ricky Harrington calls for end to hyper-partisanship". Talk Business & Politics. September 27, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
15. Boehm, Eric (October 12, 2020). "Tom Cotton won't debate his Libertarian challenger. The event will happen anyway". Reason Foundation. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
16. Roberts, Adam (October 14, 2020). "Harrington, challenging Cotton, appears solo in Arkansas PBS debate". 40/29 News. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
17. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
18. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
19. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
20. "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
21. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
22. "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
23. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
24. Silver, Nate (October 11, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved October 11, 2020.
25. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
26. Brantley, Max (October 17, 2020). "Congressman endorses Ricky Harrington for U.S. Senate".
27. @RealSpikeCohen (October 11, 2020). "Donate to Ricky Harrington for his race against Tom Cotton. This is an absolutely winnable race for Arkansas Senate!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
28. @Jorgensen4POTUS (October 14, 2020). "The Arkansas Senate debate is live now...Tom Cotton refused to participate, there is no Democrat running, and Libertarian candidate Ricky Dale Harrington @RickyForSenate has the stage to himself. #Election2020" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
29. "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
30. "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2021.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Arkansas", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Arkansas: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Arkansas". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Arkansas at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Tom Cotton (R) for Senate
• Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) for Senate (archived)