2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

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2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
Flag of Oklahoma (1988-2006).svg
  1998 November 2, 2004 2010  
  Tom Coburn official portrait 112th Congress.jpg BradCarson OfficialPortrait.jpg No image.svg
Nominee Tom Coburn Brad Carson Sheila Bilyeu
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Popular vote763,433596,75086,663
Percentage52.77%41.24%5.99%

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
County results
Coburn:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Carson:     40–50%     50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Don Nickles
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Coburn
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Fellow Republican Tom Coburn won the open seat.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [1]
Margin
of error
Brad
Carson
Carroll
Fisher
Jim
Rogers
Monte
Johnson
W. B. G.
Woodson
Undecided/
Other
SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%61%15%6%4%1%13%
Wilson Research Strategies May 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%45%7%3%45%

Results

Democratic primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brad Carson 280,026 79.37%
Democratic Carroll Fisher28,3858.05%
Democratic Jim Rogers20,1795.72%
Democratic Monte E. Johnson17,2744.90%
Democratic W. B. G. Woodson6,9321.96%
Total votes352,796 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

Humphreys, the former Mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy." [3] Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending. [4] Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.

Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [1]
Margin
of error
Tom
Coburn
Kirk
Humphreys
Bob
Anthony
Jay Richard
Hunt
Linda
Murphy
Undecided/
Other
SurveyUSA July 23–25, 2004517 (LV)± 4.4%54%25%13%8%
SurveyUSA July 16–18, 2004436 (LV)± 4.8%46%32%12%10%
Club for Growth (R) July 11–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%51%22%8%19%
Consumer Logic July 8–12, 2004291 (RV)± 5.9%37%34%7%1%21%
SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2004408 (LV)± 5%38%34%16%12%
CMA Strategies (R) June 6–8, 2004400 (LV)± 5%34%36%10%20%
Wilson Research Strategies May 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%21%21%11%5%42%
Consumer Logic Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004± 5.9%34%22%12%32%

Results

Republican primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Coburn 145,974 61.23%
Republican Kirk Humphreys59,87725.12%
Republican Bob Anthony29,59612.41%
Republican Jay Richard Hunt2,9441.23%
Total votes238,391 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the War on Terrorism. [6] Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him. [7] Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell roots [8] and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly. [9] Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent. [10] Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2022, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Lean RNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [1]
Margin
of error
Tom
Coburn (R)
Brad
Carson (D)
Sheila
Bilyeu (I)
Undecided/
Other
SurveyUSA October 28–30, 2004656 (LV)± 3.9%47%39%8%6%
Sooner Poll October 27–28, 2004498 (LV)± 4.4%44.4%35.1%4.2%16.3%
Wilson Research Strategies October 22–24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%41%38%6%15%
Sooner Poll October 20–21, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%38.0%36.8%5.8%19.4%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%48%43%9%
SurveyUSA October 18–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%47%41%8%4%
Global Strategy Group (D) August 18–20, 2004600 (LV)± 4%44%45%11%
Consumer Logic October 14–19, 2004750 (RV)± 3.6%40%47%13%
Wilson Research Strategies October 15–17, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%42.2%39.0%3.6%14.4%
Sooner Poll October 14, 2004300 (LV)± 5.7%40.6%43.3%2.0%14.1%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R) October 10–11, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%46%41%3%10%
Wilson Research Strategies (p. 2)October 8–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%37.8%40.0%7.2%15.0%
Sooner Poll October 7, 2004330 (LV)± 5.4%39.2%39.8%21.0%
SurveyUSA October 4–6, 2004609 (LV)± 4.1%46%44%5%5%
Wilson Research Strategies (p. 2)October 1–3, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%41.2%42.6%2.4%13.8%
Sooner Poll September 28–29, 2004553 (LV)± 4.1%37.2%44.1%18.7%
Basswood Research (R) September 27, 2004± 4.4%41.0%39.6%2.4%17.0%
Wilson Research Strategies (p. 2)September 24–26, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%39.2%44.2%3.2%13.4%
Global Strategy Group (D) September 24, 2004600 (LV)± 4%40%44%16%
Sooner Poll September 22, 2004394 (LV)± 4.9%37.0%39.8%23.2%
SurveyUSA September 20–22, 2004610 (LV)± 4%45%45%6%4%
Wilson Research Strategies September 17–19, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%40%41%2%17%
Sooner Poll September 15, 2004412 (LV)± 4.8%35%42%23%
Wilson Research Strategies September 10–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%37%39%6%18%
Wilson Research Strategies September 3–5, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%42%36%5%17%
Westhill Partners September 1–2, 2004400 (LV)± 5%42%44%1%13%
SurveyUSA August 16–18, 2004586 (LV)± 4.1%47%43%10%
Wilson Research Strategies August 15–18, 2004300 (LV)± 5.6%46%37%2%15%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R) August 10–12, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%47%39%14%
Global Strategy Group (D) August 8–11, 2004600 (LV)± 4%45%43%12%
Basswood Research (R) July 29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%43.5%31.8%24.7%
Consumer Logic July 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%39%42%21%
Wilson Research Strategies June 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%37%35%1%27%
Wilson Research Strategies May 20–21, 2004500 (RV)± 4.4%41%39%20%
Consumer Logic Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%35%37%28%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [1]
Margin
of error
Kirk
Humphreys (R)
Brad
Carson (D)
Sheila
Bilyeu (I)
Undecided/
Other
Consumer Logic July 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%38%47%15%
Wilson Research Strategies June 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%41%2%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [1]
Margin
of error
Bob
Anthony (R)
Brad
Carson (D)
Sheila
Bilyeu (I)
Undecided/
Other
Wilson Research Strategies June 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%39%2%25%

Results

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Tom Coburn 763,433 52.77% −13.62%
Democratic Brad Carson 596,75041.24%+9.97%
Independent Sheila Bilyeu86,6635.99%
Majority166,68311.52%−23.58%
Turnout 1,446,846
Republican hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

    Related Research Articles

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    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
      A – all adults
      RV – registered voters
      LV – likely voters
      V – unclear
    2. 1 2 "Oklahoma State Election Board - Primary Election 2004". Archived from the original on August 30, 2010. Retrieved December 27, 2012.
    3. Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (September 19, 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.
    4. "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on July 23, 2011. Retrieved March 30, 2010.
    5. Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.
    6. Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine : "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube .
    7. http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm%5B%5D
    8. Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine : "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube .
    9. "Carson's First Stand Should Feds Examine Nursing Homes? | News OK". newsok.com. Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
    10. "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post .
    11. "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
    12. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).