2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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  Arlen Specter, official Senate photo portrait.jpg Joe Hoeffel portrait.jpg
Nominee Arlen Specter Joe Hoeffel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote2,925,0802,334,126
Percentage52.62%41.99%
2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
County results
Specter:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Hoeffel:     40–50%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Arlen Specter
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Arlen Specter
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of 2024, this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009.

Contents

Democratic primary

Campaign

Democrats had difficulty recruiting top tier candidates against the popular Specter. Among the Democrats to decline to run for the nomination were Treasurer (and former Republican) Barbara Hafer, Public Utilities Commissioner John Hanger, real estate mogul Howard Hanna, State Representative (and also former Republican) John Lawless, and State Senator (and future Congresswoman) Allyson Schwartz. [1]

Congressman Hoeffel ended up running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Software businessman Charlie Crystle was considered a strong possible candidate, but he dropped out before the election. [1] [2]

Results

Democratic Party primary for Pennsylvania Senate Election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Hoeffel 595,816 100.00%

Republican primary

Pat Toomey Pat Toomey Congress.jpg
Pat Toomey

Campaign

Specter faced a primary challenge from Representative Pat Toomey. Despite the state Republican Party's strong history of embracing a moderate philosophy, the influence of conservatism among rank-and-file members had been steadily growing for decades; because of his liberal social views, Specter was often considered to be a "Republican in Name Only" by the right. [3] Although Specter had a huge fundraising advantage, Toomey was aided by $2 million of advertising from the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee that focuses on fiscal issues and targets moderate Republican incumbents. Toomey criticized Specter as a spendthrift on economic policy and as out of touch with his own party on social issues. Although Toomey had difficulty with name recognition early in the campaign, he built huge momentum over the final weeks preceding the primary, and Specter appeared to have transitioned from having a comfortable lead to being behind his challenger. [4]

Specter received a huge boost from the vocal support of President George W. Bush; most of the state's Republican establishment also closed ranks behind Specter. This included Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum, who was noted for his social conservative views. Many Republicans at the state and national level feared that if Toomey beat Specter, he wouldn't be able to defend the seat against his Democratic opponent. [5]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [6] 		Margin
of error		Arlen
Specter		Pat
Toomey		Undecided
SurveyUSA [7] April 23–25, 2004478 (LV)± 4.6%48%48%4%
Quinnipiac University [8] April 20–24, 2004617 (LV)± 4%48%42%10%
the polling company, inc. (R) [9] April 22–23, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%46%39%15%
Franklin & Marshall College [10] April 13–20, 2004401 (RV)± 4.8%50%26%24%
126 (LV)± 8.7%46%40%14%
SurveyUSA [11] April 17–19, 2004479 (LV)± 4.6%50%44%6%
Quinnipiac University [12] April 12–18, 2004431 (LV)± 4.7%49%44%7%
SurveyUSA [13] April 3–5, 2004490 (LV)± 4.5%46%40%14%
Quinnipiac University [14] Mar 30–Apr 5, 2004615 (LV)± 4%52%37%11%
Franklin & Marshall College [15] March 25–29, 2004258 (RV)± 6%50%28%22%
193 (LV)± 7%46%33%21%
SurveyUSA [16] March 13–15, 2004399 (LV)± 5%47%38%15%
the polling company, inc. (R) [17] March 9–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%47%37%16%
Franklin & Marshall College [18] February 19–22, 2004176 (RV)± 7.3%55%17%28%
the polling company, inc. (R) [17] January 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%51%28%21%
Muhlenberg College [19] [20] Nov 23–Dec 8, 2003193 (V)± 7%52%25%23%
Franklin & Marshall College [21] Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003257 (RV)± 6%49%18%33%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Specter 50-60% 60-70% Toomey 50-60% 60-70% 2004 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Specter
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Toomey
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican Party primary for Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2004
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Arlen Specter (incumbent) 530,839 50.82%
Republican Pat Toomey 513,69349.18%
Total votes1,044,532 100.00%
Source: PA Department of State - 2004 General Primary

General election

Candidates

Major

Minor

Campaign

For Democrats, hope of winning the election centered on Toomey's defeat of Specter. However, after the challenge from the right failed, enthusiasm from the party establishment waned and Hoeffel had difficulty matching the name recognition and fundraising power of his opponent [22] Despite contempt from conservatives, Specter enjoyed high levels of support from independent voters and, as in previous elections, a surprisingly large crossover from Democratic voters. Even in the areas in which Toomey performed best in the Republican primary (mainly the state's conservative, rural center), Specter performed well. Except for his large margin of victory in almost uniformly Democratic Philadelphia, Hoeffel was crushed at the polls; his only other wins came by close margins in three metro Pittsburgh counties; although President Bush proved to be unpopular in the state, voters were not willing to abandon Specter over party affiliation. [23] Incidentally, Toomey was elected to the seat in 2010, after Specter switched to the Democratic Party in 2009 and subsequently lost renomination to U.S. Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak.[ citation needed ]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24] Safe RNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [6] 		Margin
of error		Arlen
Specter (R)		Joel
Hoeffel (D)		Jim
Clymer (C)		Betsy
Summers (L)		Undecided
SurveyUSA [25] Oct 31–Nov 1, 2004650 (LV)± 3.9%53%35%8%4%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] October 29–31, 2004801 (LV)± 3%55%33%4%8%
Quinnipiac University [27] October 27–31, 20041,022 (LV)± 3.1%53%33%7%7%
Zogby International [28] October 27–30, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%54%31%15%
Zogby International [29] October 26–29, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%57%28%15%
Zogby International [30] October 25–28, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%53%30%17%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] October 25–27, 2004801 (LV)± 3%55%35%4%6%
Zogby International [31] October 24–27, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%55%29%16%
Temple University [32] October 22–27, 20041,488 (RV)± 2.6%51%29%5%3%12%
Zogby International [33] October 23–26, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%54%33%13%
Quinnipiac University [34] October 22–26, 20041,340 (RV)± 2.7%52%29%6%13%
54%30%16%
909 (LV)± 3.3%55%33%7%5%
60%34%6%
SurveyUSA [35] October 23–25, 2004797 (LV)± 3.5%51%38%6%5%
Zogby International [36] October 22–25, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%53%35%12%
Zogby International [37] October 21–24, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%48%38%14%
Franklin & Marshall College [38] October 19–23, 2003622 (RV)± 3.9%52%29%4%2%13%
376 (LV)± 5.1%52%31%17%
Mason-Dixon [39] October 19–21, 2004800 (LV)± 3.5%50%32%7%11%
Quinnipiac University [40] October 16–20, 20041,185 (RV)± 2.9%49%33%5%13%
52%34%14%
841 (LV)± 3.4%51%36%6%7%
55%37%8%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] October 17–19, 2004801 (LV)± 3%54%35%4%7%
SurveyUSA [41] October 15–17, 2004608 (LV)± 4.1%48%41%6%5%
Quinnipiac University [42] October 9–11, 20041,980 (RV)± 2.2%51%33%16%
1,343 (LV)± 2.7%55%36%9%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] October 9–11, 2004801 (LV)± 3%52%33%3%12%
SurveyUSA [43] October 3–5, 2004767 (LV)± 3.6%54%35%11%
Franklin & Marshall College [44] Sep 30–Oct 4, 2003594 (RV)± 4%46%32%6%16%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] September 27–29, 2004801 (LV)± 3%53%33%3%11%
Mason-Dixon [45] September 27–28, 2004625 (RV)± 4%53%31%16%
Quinnipiac University [46] September 22–26, 20041,125 (RV)± 2.9%52%33%15%
726 (LV)± 3.6%56%37%7%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] September 13–15, 2004801 (LV)± 3%52%33%4%11%
Franklin & Marshall College [47] September 8–15, 2003491 (RV)± 4.4%51%25%5%19%
Quinnipiac University [48] September 11–14, 20041,205 (RV)± 2.8%51%33%16%
792 (LV)± 3.5%52%37%11%
SurveyUSA [49] September 7–9, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%51%33%16%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] August 26–28, 2004801 (LV)± 3%51%31%4%14%
Pew Research [50] August 13–21, 20041,006 (RV)± 3%54%36%10%
861 (LV)± 4%56%36%8%
Strategic Vision (R) [26] August 16–18, 2004801 (LV)± 3%49%32%3%16%
Quinnipiac University [51] August 11–16, 20041,430 (RV)± 2.6%48%33%19%
Franklin & Marshall College [52] August 2–15, 2003660 (RV)± 3.8%53%26%2%19%
SurveyUSA [53] Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004740 (LV)± 3.7%49%34%17%
Quinnipiac University [54] July 6–11, 20041,577 (RV)± 2.5%51%36%13%
Quinnipiac University [55] June 21–22, 2004839 (RV)± 3.4%50%35%15%
Neighborhood Research (C) [56] June 7–16, 2004631 (LV)± 3.9%52%23%2%23%
SurveyUSA [57] June 7–9, 2004679 (LV)± 3.8%58%33%9%
Quinnipiac University [58] May 24–25, 2004701 (RV)± 3.7%49%37%14%
Quinnipiac University [59] March 9–15, 20041,022 (RV)± 3.1%45%29%26%
Quinnipiac University [60] February 10–16, 20041,356 (RV)± 2.7%50%31%19%
Quinnipiac University [61] December 11–14, 20031,092 (RV)± 3%50%32%18%
Franklin & Marshall College [21] Oct 27–Nov 16, 2003593 (RV)± 4%47%25%28%
Quinnipiac University [62] October 9–13, 20031,116 (RV)± 2.9%50%33%17%
Quinnipiac University [63] Jul 30–Aug 4, 20031,037 (RV)± 3%53%29%18%
DSCC (D) [64] June 10–12, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%53%26%21%

Results

General election results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Arlen Specter (incumbent) 2,925,080 52.62%
Democratic Joe Hoeffel 2,334,12641.99%
Constitution Jim Clymer220,0563.96%
Libertarian Betsy Summers79,2631.43%
Total votes5,769,590 100.00%
Republican hold
Source: Election Statistics - Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

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    References

    1. 1 2 "Democratic Short List '04". PoliticsPA . The Publius Group. 2003. Archived from the original on August 2, 2003.
    2. ↑ Neri, Al (August 2003). "District historically Republican". The Insider . Archived from the original on October 13, 2007. Retrieved October 25, 2009.
    3. ↑ Kennedy, John J. (2006). Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004. ISBN   9780761832799.
    4. ↑ Kennedy, John J. (2006). Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004. ISBN   9780761832799.
    5. ↑ Sen. Specter ekes out narrow win in Pa. primary - Politics - nbcnews.com
    6. 1 2 Key:
      A – all adults
      RV – registered voters
      LV – likely voters
      V – unclear
    7. ↑ SurveyUSA
    8. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    9. ↑ the polling company, inc. (R)
    10. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    11. ↑ SurveyUSA
    12. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    13. ↑ SurveyUSA
    14. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    15. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    16. ↑ SurveyUSA
    17. 1 2 the polling company, inc. (R)
    18. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    19. ↑ Muhlenberg College
    20. ↑ p. 2
    21. 1 2 Franklin & Marshall College
    22. ↑ "Pennsylvania Senate 2004, Crystal Ball, U.Va". Archived from the original on February 13, 2008. Retrieved April 30, 2009.
    23. ↑ "Hoeffel trails Specter by large margin in Senate race - News". Archived from the original on May 4, 2009. Retrieved April 30, 2009.
    24. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
    25. ↑ SurveyUSA
    26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Strategic Vision (R)
    27. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    28. ↑ Zogby International
    29. ↑ Zogby International
    30. ↑ Zogby International
    31. ↑ Zogby International
    32. ↑ Temple University
    33. ↑ Zogby International
    34. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    35. ↑ SurveyUSA
    36. ↑ Zogby International
    37. ↑ Zogby International
    38. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    39. ↑ Mason-Dixon
    40. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    41. ↑ SurveyUSA
    42. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    43. ↑ SurveyUSA
    44. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    45. ↑ Mason-Dixon
    46. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    47. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    48. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    49. ↑ SurveyUSA
    50. ↑ Pew Research
    51. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    52. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College
    53. ↑ SurveyUSA
    54. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    55. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    56. ↑ Neighborhood Research (C)
    57. ↑ SurveyUSA
    58. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    59. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    60. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    61. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    62. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    63. ↑ Quinnipiac University
    64. ↑ DSCC (D)

    Debates

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