2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout58.18%
  Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg Lou Barletta (cropped).jpg
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,792,4372,134,848
Percentage55.74%42.62%

2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
2018 PA Senate By Congressional District.svg
PA Senate 2018 Precinct Results No outline.svg
Casey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Barletta:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. [1] Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. [2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, [3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale, [4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. [5] Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes752,008 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Christiana

State senators

State representatives

Newspapers

Cynthia E. Ayers (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, former instructor at the U.S. Army War College [28]
  • Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative [28]
  • Dr. Brian Hay, business executive and national security expert [29]
  • Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF) [28]
  • Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction. [28]
Bobby Lawrence (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed: The Jeremy Hanson Show [30]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lou
Barletta
Jim
Christiana
OtherUndecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) [31] April 2018>40032%11%58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis) [32] September 20–24, 2017600± 4.0%22%<10%60%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Barletta-->90%
Barletta--80-90%
Barletta--70-80%
Barletta--60-70%
Barletta--50-60%
Christiana--50-60%
Christiana--60-70%
Christiana--70-80% Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Barletta—>90%
  Barletta—80–90%
  Barletta—70–80%
  Barletta—60–70%
  Barletta—50–60%
  Christiana—50–60%
  Christiana—60–70%
  Christiana—70–80%
Republican primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Lou Barletta 433,312 63.03%
Republican Jim Christiana254,11836.97%
Total votes687,430 100.00%

Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018. [34]

Candidates

Nominee

Green Party

Candidates

Nominee

  • Neal Gale, clean energy consultant [4]

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [37] Likely DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [38] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [40] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [41] [lower-alpha 1] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
CNN [42] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [43] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Lou Barletta (R)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Local and state officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Neal Gale (G)

Organizations

Dale Kerns (L)

Governors

State and local politicians

  • Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1 [86] (Republican)
  • Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor [87] (Libertarian)
  • Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3 [86] (Libertarian)
  • Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor [87]

Individuals

  • Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner [87]

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Lou
Barletta (R)
OtherUndecided
Change Research [88] November 2–4, 20181,83351%44%3% [89]
Research Co. [90] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%56%39%1%4%
Muhlenberg College [91] October 28 – November 1, 2018421± 5.5%54%40%
Franklin & Marshall College [92] October 22–28, 2018214 LV± 9.5%50%35%14%
537 RV± 6.0%50%31%4% [93] 14%
Morning Consult [94] October 1–2, 20181,188± 3.0%47%32%21%
Franklin & Marshall College [95] September 17–23, 2018204 LV50%33%15%
545 RV± 6.1%48%30%4% [96] 20%
Ipsos [97] September 12–20, 20181,080± 3.0%53%37%3%7%
Muhlenberg College [98] September 13–19, 2018404± 5.5%53%35%7% [99] 6%
Rasmussen Reports [100] September 12–13, 2018800± 3.5%52%38%2%8%
Franklin & Marshall College [101] August 20–26, 2018222 LV47%34%1%19%
511 RV± 6.1%48%29%3% [102] 20%
NBC News/Marist [103] August 12–16, 2018713± 4.2%53%38%1%8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) [104] August 13–15, 20182,012± 3.6%47%45%2%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [105] June 11 – July 2, 2018990± 4.5%55%41%5%
Suffolk University [106] June 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%47%32%1%21%
Franklin & Marshall College [107] June 4–10, 2018472± 6.5%44%27%1%28%
Muhlenberg College [108] April 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%48%32%8%18%
Franklin & Marshall College [109] March 19–26, 2018423± 6.8%43%25%2%30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [110] March 15–16, 20181,056± 3.0%54%36%10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [111] February 12 – March 5, 20182,165± 3.8%52%43%5%
Hypothetical polling

with Jim Christiana

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Jim
Christiana (R)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College [108] April 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%48%29%3%20%

with generic Democrat and Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [110] March 15–16, 20181,056± 3.0%53%41%7%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018 [112]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,792,437 55.74% +2.05%
Republican Lou Barletta 2,134,84842.62%−1.97%
Libertarian Dale Kerns50,9071.02%−0.70%
Green Neal Gale31,2080.62%N/A
Total votes5,009,400 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House. [113]

DistrictBarlettaCasey Jr.Representative
1st 41.65%56.72% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20.33%78.53%
Brendan Boyle
3rd 5.76%93.06% Dwight Evans
4th 34.11%64.36% Madeleine Dean
5th 30.84%67.88% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 39.17%59.05% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 42.21%56.07% Susan Wild
8th 47.02%51.84%
Matt Cartwright
9th 58.77%39.57% Dan Meuser
10th 48.19%49.78% Scott Perry
11th 55.77%42.04% Lloyd Smucker
12th 60.26%37.80% Tom Marino
13th 64.15%34.20% John Joyce
14th 52.34%46.04% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60.19%38.04% Glenn Thompson
16th 50.21%48.11% Mike Kelly
17th 40.66%57.55% Conor Lamb
18th 27.41%70.86% Mike Doyle

See also

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References

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  45. "Rep. Lou Barletta, a Great Republican from Pennsylvania who was one of my very earliest supporters, will make a FANTASTIC Senator. He is strong & smart, loves Pennsylvania & loves our Country! Voted for Tax Cuts, unlike Bob Casey, who listened to Tax Hikers Pelosi and Schumer!". Twitter . February 11, 2018. Retrieved February 11, 2018.
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  63. "PA-Sen: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Is Determined To Defeat Trump's "Political Godfather"". Daily Kos. November 13, 2017.
  64. "MN, PA & MT-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Fight Back Against Trump's Agenda". Daily Kos. May 31, 2018.
  65. "PA-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Chosen Fringe Candidate". Daily Kos. February 26, 2018.
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  76. "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  77. Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  78. Dawe, John (March 30, 2018). "Equality PA endorses Senator Bob Casey, Jr. for Re-Election". Equality Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on April 19, 2018. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
  79. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Pennsylvania Environmental Champions Senator Casey & Representative Cartwright". League of Conservation Voters. October 23, 2017.
  80. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
  81. Curtis, Kevin (February 16, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : Sen. Bob Casey endorsed by the NRDC Action Fund". www.nrdcactionfund.org.
  82. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  83. 1 2 "Neal Gale Announces Run for U.S. Senate in PA". Green Party US. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  84. "Thank you Gary Johnson for your endorsement!". Facebook.
  85. "I endorse". Facebook.
  86. 1 2 "Facebook". Facebook.
  87. 1 2 3 "Kerns Endorsements". Dale Kerns. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  88. Change Research
  89. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%
  90. Research Co.
  91. Muhlenberg College Archived 2018-11-02 at the Wayback Machine
  92. Franklin & Marshall College
  93. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1%
  94. Morning Consult Archived 2018-10-15 at the Wayback Machine
  95. Franklin & Marshall College
  96. Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  97. Ipsos
  98. Muhlenberg College
  99. Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3%
  100. Rasmussen Reports
  101. Franklin & Marshall College
  102. Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  103. NBC News/Marist
  104. Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)
  105. SurveyMonkey/Axios
  106. Suffolk University Archived 2018-06-27 at the Wayback Machine
  107. Franklin & Marshall College
  108. 1 2 Muhlenberg College
  109. Franklin & Marshall College
  110. 1 2 Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  111. SurveyMonkey/Axios
  112. "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results". electionreturns.pa.gov.
  113. "Twitter".

Official campaign websites