2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout57.32%
  Deb Fischer, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Deb Fischer Jane Raybould
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote403,151269,917
Percentage57.69%38.62%

2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska results by congressional district.svg
NE Senate 2018.svg
Fischer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Raybould:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Deb Fischer
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Deb Fischer
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska. Incumbent Republican Deb Fischer was re-elected to a second term against Lincoln city councilwoman Jane Raybould and Libertarian candidate Jim Schultz.

Contents

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on May 15, 2018. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Deb Fischer
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide politicians
Mayors
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
Fischer
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
50-60% Nebraska U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Fischer
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Deb Fischer (inc.) 128,157 75.79%
Republican Todd F. Watson19,66111.63%
Republican Jack Heidel9,4135.57%
Republican Jeffrey Lynn Stein6,3803.77%
Republican Dennis Frank Macek5,4833.24%
Total votes169,094 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jane Raybould
U.S. senators
Local and statewide politicians
Labor unions
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
Raybould
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Svoboda
50-60%
40-50%
30-40% 2018 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Nebraska results map by county.svg
Results by county:
Raybould
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Svoboda
  •   50–60%
  •   40-50%
  •   30-40%
Democratic primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jane Raybould 59,067 63.75%
Democratic Chris Janicek18,75220.24%
Democratic Frank B. Svoboda10,54811.38%
Democratic Larry Marvin4,3934.74%
Total votes92,660 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Jim Schultz [7]

Results

Results by county:
Schultz
100%
No votes
No votes 2018 NE US Senate Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county:
Schultz
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jim Schultz 1,202 100.00%
Total votes1,202 100.00%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [35] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [37] Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN [38] Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [39] Safe RNovember 5, 2018

Debates

Host
network/sponsors
DateLink(s)Participants
Jane
Raybould (D)
Deb
Fischer (R)
KMTV-TV August 27, 2018 [40] InvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deb
Fischer (R)
Jane
Raybould (D)
Undecided
DFM Research [41] October 23–27, 2018683± 3.8%54%39%7%
Grassroots Targeting (R) [42] Late June 20181,000± 3.1%63%28%
Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer) [43] January 24–28, 201850051%34%
Public Policy Polling (D-Raybould) [44] November 10–12, 20171,190± 2.8%42%31%27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer) [43] January 24–28, 201850047%32%

Results

Swing by county

Legend
Democratic--+5-10%
Democratic--+<5%
Republican--+<5%
Republican--+5-10%
Republican--+10-15%
Republican--+15-20%
Republican--+20-25%
Republican--+25-30%
Republican--+>30% 2018 NE Senate swing by county margins.svg
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
  •   Republican—+25-30%
  •   Republican—+>30%
2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska [45]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Deb Fischer (inc.) 403,151 57.69% −0.08%
Democratic Jane Raybould 269,91738.62%−3.61%
Libertarian Jim Schultz25,3493.63
Write-in 4660.07%
Majority 133,23419.06%+3.52%
Total votes698,883 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

From Secretary of State of Nebraska [46]

CountyDeb Fischer
Republican
Jane Raybould
Democratic
Jim Schultz
Libertarian
Write-inTotal
votes
 %# %# %# %#
Adams 63.44%6,48732.61%3,3343.93%4020.02%210,225
Antelope 81.56%2,06115.67%3962.65%670.12%32,527
Arthur 87.07%20210.34%242.59%60.00%0232
Banner 83.76%26312.42%393.82%120.00%0314
Blaine 84.79%22312.93%342.28%60.00%0263
Boone 76.56%1,75719.91%4573.22%740.31%72,295
Box Butte 72.51%2,63223.00%8354.41%1600.08%33,630
Boyd 83.11%79713.35%1283.55%340.00%0959
Brown 83.25%1,15313.72%1903.03%420.00%01,385
Buffalo 66.86%10,93929.12%4,7653.97%6500.04%716,361
Burt 67.93%1,99528.46%8363.54%1040.07%22,937
Butler 71.00%2,47025.04%8713.94%1370.03%13,479
Cass 63.97%6,78731.98%3,3933.99%4230.06%610,609
Cedar 81.56%2,86615.28%5373.16%1110.00%03,514
Chase 85.73%1,34011.77%1842.43%380.06%11,563
Cherry 80.18%1,91313.16%3146.08%1450.59%142,386
Cheyenne 78.76%2,56617.77%5793.41%1110.06%23,258
Clay 73.87%1,97922.10%5924.03%1080.00%02,679
Colfax 69.27%1,73127.73%6933.00%750.00%02,499
Cuming 79.45%2,67217.96%6042.56%860.03%13,363
Custer 81.78%3,79714.80%6873.40%1580.02%14,643
Dakota 59.02%2,67737.28%1,6913.62%1640.09%44,536
Dawes 68.79%2,33426.94%9144.19%1420.09%33,393
Dawson 69.77%4,36326.50%1,6573.63%2270.10%66,253
Deuel 80.61%57815.20%1094.18%300.00%0717
Dixon 74.38%1,65521.93%4883.64%810.04%12,225
Dodge 64.90%7,82731.71%3,8243.36%4050.03%412,060
Douglas 46.30%94,77750.35%103,0703.29%6,7270.06%133204,707
Dundy 84.07%64912.82%992.98%230.13%1772
Fillmore 67.99%1,71827.31%6904.67%1180.04%12,527
Franklin 77.39%1,04418.90%2553.71%500.00%01,349
Frontier 79.90%83116.63%1733.46%360.00%01,040
Furnas 80.36%1,71915.61%3344.02%860.00%02,139
Gage 58.74%4,89636.28%3,0244.91%4090.07%68,335
Garden 81.52%81613.89%1394.40%440.20%21,001
Garfield 83.48%66714.14%1132.25%180.13%1799
Gosper 79.69%66717.56%1472.75%230.00%0837
Grant 93.69%2824.65%141.66%50.00%0301
Greeley 73.57%73223.92%2382.51%250.00%0995
Hall 62.45%10,48333.50%5,6243.96%6650.09%1516,787
Hamilton 74.88%3,07621.81%8963.24%1330.07%34,108
Harlan 77.11%1,14919.26%2873.49%520.13%21,490
Hayes 89.06%3508.14%322.54%100.25%1393
Hitchcock 82.48%89014.27%1543.24%350.00%01,079
Holt 77.75%3,22617.47%7254.60%1910.17%74,149
Hooker 82.96%25815.76%490.96%30.32%1311
Howard 70.20%1,69625.25%6104.51%1090.04%12,416
Jefferson 64.22%1,91331.02%9244.63%1380.13%42,979
Johnson 62.06%1,10132.75%5815.07%900.11%21,774
Kearney 74.22%1,95222.51%5923.23%850.04%12,630
Keith 79.19%2,54217.66%5673.12%1000.03%13,210
Keya Paha 87.05%33610.88%422.07%80.00%0386
Kimball 81.30%1,12214.64%2023.99%550.07%11,380
Knox 78.37%2,81218.65%6692.98%1070.00%03,588
Lancaster 42.22%49,44953.94%63,1753.77%4,4120.08%95117,131
Lincoln 71.99%8,99923.09%2,8864.85%6060.07%912,500
Logan 90.80%3066.82%232.37%80.00%0337
Loup 80.46%24716.61%512.93%90.00%0307
Madison 75.61%7,94921.27%2,2363.07%3230.05%510,513
McPherson 87.02%2288.40%224.58%120.00%0262
Merrick 76.21%2,56319.24%6474.52%1520.03%13,363
Morrill 80.33%1,69914.56%3085.06%1070.05%12,115
Nance 71.54%88525.46%3152.99%370.00%01,237
Nemaha 68.48%1,78827.84%7273.68%960.00%02,611
Nuckolls 75.40%1,32120.83%3653.77%660.00%01,752
Otoe 64.62%4,09831.17%1,9774.10%2600.11%76,342
Pawnee 67.13%77428.79%3324.08%470.00%01,153
Perkins 82.60%1,01114.71%1802.70%330.00%01,224
Phelps 79.50%3,06817.39%6713.01%1160.10%43,859
Pierce 84.59%2,33912.33%3413.04%840.04%12,765
Platte 75.85%8,37221.23%2,3432.87%3170.05%511,037
Polk 75.20%1,57421.40%4483.39%710.00%02,093
Red Willow 78.49%3,05117.91%6963.60%1400.00%03,887
Richardson 69.29%2,13727.82%8582.82%870.06%23,084
Rock 85.56%56911.88%792.56%170.00%0665
Saline 53.46%2,25541.06%1,7325.43%2290.05%24,218
Sarpy 58.08%39,30637.99%25,7063.86%2,6100.08%5167,673
Saunders 68.06%6,47927.99%2,6643.90%3710.05%59,519
Scotts Bluff 68.84%7,39826.87%2,8874.19%4500.10%1110,746
Seward 65.21%4,60730.77%2,1743.99%2820.03%27,065
Sheridan 81.98%1,67013.50%2754.47%910.05%12,037
Sherman 67.67%87328.68%3703.57%460.08%11,290
Sioux 83.24%44712.85%693.91%210.00%0537
Stanton 80.36%1,81716.05%3633.58%810.00%02,261
Thayer 71.89%1,60624.13%5393.98%890.00%02,234
Thomas 86.09%29110.65%363.25%110.00%0338
Thurston 53.03%97044.67%8172.13%390.16%31,829
Valley 77.20%1,38819.97%3592.78%500.06%11,798
Washington 70.28%6,46226.52%2,4383.17%2910.03%39,194
Wayne 74.21%2,38822.50%7243.26%1050.03%13,218
Webster 73.09%99723.31%3183.59%490.00%01,364
Wheeler 82.85%34314.49%602.66%110.00%0414
York 71.41%3,65925.00%1,2813.51%1800.08%45,124

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Fischer won all three congressional districts. [47]

DistrictFischerRaybouldRepresentative
1st 55%42% Jeff Fortenberry
2nd 49%48% Don Bacon
3rd 72%24% Adrian Smith

References

  1. "United States Senate election in Nebraska, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Archived from the original on April 21, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  2. Rindels, Michelle (November 25, 2016). "Fresh off 2016 losses, Democrats target 2018 Senate races". McClatchy DC. Archived from the original on November 26, 2016. Retrieved November 25, 2016.
  3. Walton, Don (June 18, 2017). "Don Walton: Deb Fischer embarks on re-election bid". Lincoln Journal Star . Archived from the original on June 22, 2017. Retrieved June 18, 2017.
  4. Walton, Don (January 22, 2018). "Retired professor will challenge Fischer in GOP primary". JournalStar.com. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  5. "Sen. Fischer's Latest Rival Asking a Lot". Archived from the original on January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 24, 2018.
  6. 1 2 "Deb Fischer enters election year with $2.4 million; challenger Jane Raybould has $200,000 | State and Regional News | omaha.com". February 9, 2018. Archived from the original on February 9, 2018. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
  7. 1 2 3 writers, Roseann Moring and Erin Duffy World-Herald staff (March 2018). "Several Nebraska incumbents are running unopposed, but Deb Fischer faces 10 challengers". Omaha World-Herald. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  8. Walton, Don (November 21, 2017). "Fischer faces Republican challenge from the right". Lincoln Journal Star . Archived from the original on December 1, 2017. Retrieved November 29, 2017.
  9. Kraushaar, Josh (October 17, 2017). "Bannon's Bark Is Worse Than His Bite". National Journal . Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Retrieved October 18, 2017.
  10. 1 2 Jordan, Joe (October 20, 2017). "All Quiet on the Fischer Front as Money Rolls In". News Channel Nebraska . Archived from the original on October 26, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  11. 1 2 3 4 Moring, Roseann (November 28, 2017). "Don Stenberg, Shane Osborn endorse Deb Fischer in U.S. Senate race". Omaha World-Herald . Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2017.
  12. Trump, Donald [@realDonaldTrump] (May 15, 2018). "Nebraska - make sure you get out to the polls and VOTE for Deb Fischer today! https://t.co/bDHVaGv2FS" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2021 via Twitter.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fischer, Deb [@DebFischerNE] (October 11, 2017). "I'm honored to have the endorsement of more than 500 leaders across #Nebraska. Check out the full list here: https://t.co/0MCn0bo1g9" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2021 via Twitter.
  14. Fischer, Deb [@DebFischerNE] (May 4, 2018). "I'm honored to have earned the endorsement of @maggieslist1 and will continue to be a champion for limited government in the U.S. Senate. Retweet if you support having more conservative women in office! #NEsen https://t.co/4S958g2oUX" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2021 via Twitter.
  15. Aaron Sanderford (March 23, 2018). "Fischer announces endorsement from national small business group". Omaha World-Herald . Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  16. Fischer, Deb [@DebFischerNE] (May 11, 2018). "As the oldest pro-life organization in the country, @nrlc has been indispensable in our mission to protect and defend the unborn. I'm humbled to have the endorsement of National Right to Life and their supporters. #nesen https://t.co/4xGhawVcrw" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2021 via Twitter.
  17. "NEBRASKA CATTLEMEN ANNOUNCE SUPPORT FOR FISCHER FOR U.S. SENATE". April 30, 2018. Archived from the original on May 16, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  18. "Farm Bureau endorses Sen. Deb Fischer". Lincoln Journal Star . February 20, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  19. Sanderford, Aaron (August 24, 2018). "Omaha fire union endorses Deb Fischer, a red flag for Jane Raybould". Omaha World-Herald . Archived from the original on August 24, 2018. Retrieved August 25, 2018.
  20. "SBA List Endorses Deb Fischer for Senate". Susan B. Anthony List . November 8, 2017. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  21. Fischer, Deb [@DebFischerNE] (May 7, 2018). "I am grateful to earn the endorsement of the @USChamber and it's[sic] Nebraska members. Our local chambers help our families and communities prosper. I look forward continuing to partner with our local Chambers to grow Nebraska business and create jobs. #NESen https://t.co/vAuXsJkMol" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2021 via Twitter.
  22. 1 2 3 Gale, John A. (2018). Official Report of the Nebraska Board of State Canvassers, Primary Election, May 15, 2018 (PDF).
  23. Walton, Don (August 25, 2017). "Jane Raybould will challenge Sen. Deb Fischer". Lincoln Journal Star . Archived from the original on August 25, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2017.
  24. "MARVIN, LARRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Archived from the original on August 19, 2017. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  25. Samantha. "Please join us for an evening featuring Senator Ben Nelson and in support of Jane Raybould for US Senate". Douglas County Democrats. Archived from the original on June 21, 2018.
  26. Bischof, Bayley. "Jane Raybould kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate". KLKN-TV. Archived from the original on October 17, 2017. Retrieved October 17, 2017.
  27. "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org. Archived from the original on August 1, 2018. Retrieved May 3, 2018.
  28. Benson, Jenni (March 15, 2018). "NSEA endorses Raybould in challenge to Fischer". JournalStar.com. Don Walton. Archived from the original on May 4, 2018. Retrieved May 3, 2018.
  29. Muller, Tiffany (March 29, 2018). "End Citizens United Endorses Jane Raybould for U.S. Senate in Nebraska - End Citizens United". End Citizens United. Archived from the original on April 18, 2018. Retrieved May 3, 2018.
  30. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Jane Raybould for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. June 12, 2018. Archived from the original on June 20, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  31. "List of Endorsements: 2018 Election | PPVotes". Archived from the original on November 10, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  32. "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network". rachelsactionnetwork.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  33. "Sierra Club Voter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide. March 19, 2021. Archived from the original on December 8, 2019. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  34. "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on February 5, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  35. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on September 12, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  36. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 12, 2017. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  37. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  38. "Key Races: Senate". Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  39. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Archived from the original on July 9, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  40. "Nebraska Senate Debate | C-SPAN.org". www.c-span.org. Archived from the original on January 27, 2021. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  41. DFM Research Archived October 31, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  42. Grassroots Targeting (R)
  43. 1 2 Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer)
  44. Public Policy Polling (D-Raybould)
  45. Gale, John A. (2018). Official Report of the Board of State Canvassers, General Election, November 6, 2018 (PDF).
  46. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on March 10, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  47. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

Official campaign websites