2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

Last updated

2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2020  
Turnout63.66%
  Tina Smith official photo (cropped).jpg Minnesota State Senator Karin Housley.jpg
Nominee Tina Smith Karin Housley
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote1,370,5401,095,777
Percentage52.97%42.35%

2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota results map by county.svg
2018 MN US Senate special CD results.svg
2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota results map by precinct.svg
Smith:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Housley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith [lower-alpha 1]
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.

Contents

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018. [1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.

DFL primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Richard Painter

Local and state politicians

Individuals

Results

2018 MN US Senate special Democratic primary.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Smith—80–90%
  •   Smith—70–80%
  •   Smith—60–70%
  •   Smith—50–60%
2018MNUSSENspecialD.svg
Results by congressional district
Map legend
  •   Smith—70–80%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 433,705 76.06%
Democratic (DFL) Richard Painter78,19313.71%
Democratic (DFL) Ali Chehem Ali18,8973.31%
Democratic (DFL) Gregg Iverson17,8253.13%
Democratic (DFL) Nick Leonard16,5292.90%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher L. Seymore Sr.5,0410.88%
Total votes570,190 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Bob Anderson, businessman [15]
  • Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey [3]

Declined

Endorsements

Results

2018 MN US Senate special R primary.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Housley—70–80%
  •   Housley—60–70%
  •   Housley—50–60%
  •   Housley—40–50%
  •   Housley/Anderson tie—40–50%
  •   Anderson—40–50%
  •   Anderson—50–60%
2018MNUSSENGOPspecialprimary.svg
Results by congressional district
Map legend
  •   Housley—70–80%
  •   Housley—60–70%
  •   Housley—50–60%
Republican Party primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Karin Housley 186,384 61.95%
Republican Bob Anderson107,10235.60%
Republican Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey7,3552.45%
Total votes300,861 100%

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [28] Lean DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [29] Likely DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [30] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [31] Likely DJuly 9, 2018
CNN [32] Likely DJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [33] Lean DNovember 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Karin Housley (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Tina Smith (D)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and news websites

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Tina Smith (D)$8,237,522$7,308,790$928,730
Karin Housley (R)$4,049,032$3,689,562$359,470
Source: Federal Election Commission [97]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tina
Smith (DFL)
Karin
Housley (R)
Sarah
Wellington (LMN)
OtherUndecided
Change Research [98] November 2–4, 201895351%42%3%2% [99]
Research Co. [100] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%49%39%2%10%
SurveyUSA [101] October 29–31, 2018600± 5.3%48%40%5%7%
St. Cloud State University [102] October 15–30, 201842044%29%
Mason-Dixon [103] October 15–17, 2018800± 3.5%47%41%1%1% [104] 10%
Change Research [105] October 12–13, 20181,41346%43%5%2% [99] 2%
Marist College [106] September 30 – October 4, 2018637 LV± 4.9%54%38%<1%7%
860 RV± 4.2%52%39%<1%9%
Mason-Dixon [107] September 10–12, 2018800± 3.5%44%37%2%2% [99] 15%
SurveyUSA [108] September 6–8, 2018574± 4.9%48%39%2%11%
Suffolk University [109] August 17–20, 2018500± 4.4%44%37%2%0% [110] 18%
Emerson College [111] August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%32%28%41%
Marist College [112] July 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%49%35%1%15%
BK Strategies (R) [113] June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%48%39%13%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Karin
Housley (R)
Undecided
Emerson College [114] August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%41%40%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
BK Strategies (R) [113] June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%49%42%9%

Results

Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.

United States Senate special election in Minnesota, 2018 [115]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,370,540 52.97% −0.18%
Republican Karin Housley 1,095,77742.35%−0.56%
Legal Marijuana Now Sarah Wellington95,6143.70%N/A
Independent Jerry Trooien24,3240.94%N/A
Write-in 1,1010.04%N/A
Total votes2,587,356 100.0% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Smith won four of Minnesota's eight congressional districts. Housley won the other four, including one that elected a Democrat. [116]

DistrictSmithHousleyRepresentative
1st 46.35%48.61% Tim Walz (115th Congress)
Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)
2nd 50.52%44.93% Jason Lewis (115th Congress)
Angie Craig (116th Congress)
3rd 54.07%42.21% Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)
Dean Phillips (116th Congress)
4th 64.38%30.73% Betty McCollum
5th 76.99%18.35% Keith Ellison (115th Congress)
Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)
6th 39.83%55.21% Tom Emmer
7th 40.23%55.21% Collin Peterson
8th 46.84%48.28% Rick Nolan (115th Congress)
Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupSmithHousleyNo
answer
 % of
voters
Gender
Men4949246
Women6137254
Age
18–24 years old702826
25–29 years old554235
30–39 years old6038212
40–49 years old5145413
50–64 years old5345229
65 and older5544135
Race
White 5345289
Black 851235
Latino N/AN/AN/A3
Asian N/AN/AN/A2
OtherN/AN/AN/A2
Race by gender
White men4652241
White women5940148
Black menN/AN/AN/A3
Black womenN/AN/AN/A2
Latino menN/AN/AN/A1
Latino womenN/AN/AN/A1
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less5643117
Some college education4848424
Associate degree 4751217
Bachelor's degree 5940126
Advanced degree6929216
Education and race
White college graduates6237138
White no college degree4652251
Non-white college graduates7228N/A4
Non-white no college degree771857
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees6830221
White women without college degrees5146328
White men with college degrees5544117
White men without college degrees4058223
Non-whites7521411
Income
Under $30,0006333414
$30,000–49,9995443320
$50,000–99,9994948336
$100,000–199,9995443323
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats 964N/A39
Republicans 990132
Independents 5343429
Party by gender
Democratic men964N/A14
Democratic women954125
Republican men791215
Republican women1089117
Independent men4749416
Independent women6036413
Ideology
Liberals 934327
Moderates 6731239
Conservatives 1187233
Marital status
Married5048267
Unmarried6533233
Gender by marital status
Married men4752131
Married women5245336
Unmarried men5540515
Unmarried women7426N/A17
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5346112
No5840288
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 7523249
Immigration 2375222
Economy 3265319
Gun policy N/AN/AN/A8
Area type
Urban6631340
Suburban5245332
Rural4256228
Source: CNN [117]

See also

Notes

  1. In December 2017, Smith was appointed by Governor Mark Dayton to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Al Franken.

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References

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  58. Tina Smith. "I'm absolutely honored to have the endorsement of Vice President @JoeBiden. I've been fighting for the progressive values of Minnesotans for decades and I'll keep being the champion of our shared values VP Biden fought so hard for". Twitter.
  59. Hillary Clinton. ".@TinaSmithMN shares some qualities with her wonderful home state: hardworking, no-nonsense, huge heart. She's in a tight race to keep working for Minnesota families in a race that could decide control of the Senate. Pitch in if you can". Twitter.
  60. "MN-Sen: Walter Mondale Helps Both Minnesota's Senators Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. April 19, 2018.
  61. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  62. Tina Smith. "So fun to run into my friend @tammybaldwin on the campaign trail today! We're fighting as hard as we can to stay in the Senate and make sure the people of Minnesota and Wisconsin have strong voices representing them in Washington". Twitter.
  63. Catherine Cortez Mastro. ".@TinaSmithMN has one of the toughest Senate races. I was on the ground recently with @amyklobuchar & @CecileRichards fighting for Tina". Twitter.
  64. "MN, PA & MT-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Fight Back Against Trump's Agenda". Daily Kos. May 31, 2018.
  65. "MN-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Gives Tina Smith (D) A Boost To Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. June 25, 2018.
  66. "MN-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Tina Smith (D) Get Ready To Defeat Michelle Bachmann (R)". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  67. Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Smith.
  68. "MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar (D) Helps Tina "The Velvet Hammer" Smith (D) Get Ready For Victory". Daily Kos. March 6, 2018.
  69. "MI & MN-Sen: Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps His Stabenow (D) & Smith (D) Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. June 26, 2018.
  70. "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 28, 2018.
  71. "MN-Sen: Sen. Brian Schatz (D. HI) Helps Fellow Progressive Tina Smith (D) Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018.
  72. "OH, WI, PA & MN-Sen: Warren (D. MA) Helps These Dems Continue To Stand Up To Wall Street". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018.
  73. 1 2 Robillard, Kevin; Severns, Maggie (December 13, 2017). "Minnesota governor names Lt. Gov. Tina Smith as Franken replacement". Politico . Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  74. 1 2 3 4 Brodey, Sam (December 14, 2017). "Why Minnesota's Democratic House delegation unanimously supports Tina Smith for Senate in 2018". MinnPost . Retrieved December 14, 2017.
  75. Tina Smith. "Folks have been knocking on doors every day, all day, to get people out to vote on (& before!) November 6. We can't take anything for granted – but we're feeling fired up. Thanks to @JeffMerkley @melvincarter3 @VoteBetty & @TristaMatas for greeting DFL volunteers this afternoon!". Twitter.
  76. Peggy Flanagan. "I've always had fight & fury in me but I've got it like never before and I'm so thankful we have leaders like Tina in DC right now. I'm standing here running for Lt. Governor because of Tina Smith. Because of the path she cleared. I'm grateful for her friendship & her mentorship". Twitter.
  77. Eric Garcetti. ""People are so sick and tired of the political games being played in DC. That's why I'm focused on listening and getting things done for Minnesotans!" — @TinaSmithMN. I'm rooting her on today (and for the next 16 days & beyond). #EGinMN". Twitter.
  78. Tina Smith. "In 11 days, @CecileRichards and I need everyone – and I mean everyone – to get to their polling place to vote. Vote for reproductive freedom. Vote for access to affordable high-quality health care. We are responsible for the outcome of this election. With your help, we will win". Twitter.
  79. Munt, Jennifer (December 13, 2017). "AFSCME Backs Tina Smith for U.S. Senate". AFSCME Council 5. Archived from the original on April 12, 2018. Retrieved April 12, 2018.
  80. "Our Candidates – CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved April 27, 2018.
  81. "State and federal endorsements". Education Minnesota. Archived from the original on May 11, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  82. "Minnesota AFL-CIO makes first round of 2018 political endorsements | Minnesota AFL-CIO". www.mnaflcio.org. March 6, 2018.
  83. "SEIU Endorse Tina Smith, Angie Craig, Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum". seiumn.org. March 9, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  84. "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  85. "USW Lauds Appointment of Tina Smith to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. December 14, 2017. Smith has indicated that she will also run in the November 2018 election to fill the remaining two years of the term, and the USW has promised to provide strong support to her campaign.
  86. "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates – Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  87. "Emily's List endorses Tina Smith for U.S. Senate in Minnesota". Emily's List. January 4, 2018.
  88. "Tina Smith – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  89. Griffin, Chad (March 28, 2018). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Tina Smith for U.S. Senate in Minnesota". Human Rights Campaign.
  90. Auster, Craig (April 10, 2018). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Tina Smith for Senate". League of Conservation Voters .
  91. Davis, Don (June 1, 2018). "Minnesota Democrats endorse Smith, Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune.
  92. "NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Endorses Tina Smith for Senate in Minnesota – NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America. March 8, 2018.
  93. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support" . Retrieved December 18, 2018.
  94. Curtis, Kevin (June 1, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : NRDC Action Fund endorses Sen. Tina Smith". www.nrdcactionfund.org. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  95. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  96. "Our View / Endorsement: It's Smith in crowded Senate primary". News Tribune Editorial Board. Duluth News Tribune. July 25, 2018.
  97. "Campaign finance data" . Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  98. Change Research
  99. 1 2 3 Jerry Trooien (I) with 2%
  100. Research Co.
  101. SurveyUSA
  102. St. Cloud State University
  103. Mason-Dixon
  104. Jerry Trooien (I) with 1%
  105. Change Research
  106. Marist College
  107. Mason-Dixon
  108. SurveyUSA
  109. Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine
  110. Jerry Trooien (I) with 0%
  111. Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine
  112. Marist College
  113. 1 2 BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
  114. Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine
  115. "Minnesota Secretary Of State – 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2018.
  116. "Daily Kos".
  117. "Minnesota Senate special election exit poll". CNN . Retrieved November 20, 2018.

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