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Turnout | 63.66% | ||||||||||||||||
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Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Housley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.
The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018. [1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.
Local and state politicians
Individuals
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 433,705 | 76.06% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Richard Painter | 78,193 | 13.71% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Ali Chehem Ali | 18,897 | 3.31% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Gregg Iverson | 17,825 | 3.13% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Nick Leonard | 16,529 | 2.90% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Christopher L. Seymore Sr. | 5,041 | 0.88% | |
Total votes | 570,190 | 100% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Karin Housley | 186,384 | 61.95% | |
Republican | Bob Anderson | 107,102 | 35.60% | |
Republican | Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey | 7,355 | 2.45% | |
Total votes | 300,861 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [28] | Lean D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [29] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [30] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [31] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
CNN [32] | Likely D | July 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [33] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
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Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State and local politicians
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Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Tina Smith (D) | $8,237,522 | $7,308,790 | $928,730 |
Karin Housley (R) | $4,049,032 | $3,689,562 | $359,470 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [97] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tina Smith (DFL) | Karin Housley (R) | Sarah Wellington (LMN) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research [98] | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 51% | 42% | 3% | 2% [99] | – |
Research Co. [100] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | – | 2% | 10% |
SurveyUSA [101] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 48% | 40% | – | 5% | 7% |
St. Cloud State University [102] | October 15–30, 2018 | 420 | – | 44% | 29% | – | – | – |
Mason-Dixon [103] | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 1% | 1% [104] | 10% |
Change Research [105] | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 46% | 43% | 5% | 2% [99] | 2% |
Marist College [106] | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 54% | 38% | – | <1% | 7% |
860 RV | ± 4.2% | 52% | 39% | – | <1% | 9% | ||
Mason-Dixon [107] | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 37% | 2% | 2% [99] | 15% |
SurveyUSA [108] | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 39% | – | 2% | 11% |
Suffolk University [109] | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 2% | 0% [110] | 18% |
Emerson College [111] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 32% | 28% | – | – | 41% |
Marist College [112] | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 35% | – | 1% | 15% |
BK Strategies (R) [113] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Al Franken (DFL) | Karin Housley (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [114] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 40% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BK Strategies (R) [113] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 1,370,540 | 52.97% | −0.18% | |
Republican | Karin Housley | 1,095,777 | 42.35% | −0.56% | |
Legal Marijuana Now | Sarah Wellington | 95,614 | 3.70% | N/A | |
Independent | Jerry Trooien | 24,324 | 0.94% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,101 | 0.04% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,587,356 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
Smith won four of Minnesota's eight congressional districts. Housley won the other four, including one that elected a Democrat. [116]
District | Smith | Housley | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 46.35% | 48.61% | Tim Walz (115th Congress) |
Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress) | |||
2nd | 50.52% | 44.93% | Jason Lewis (115th Congress) |
Angie Craig (116th Congress) | |||
3rd | 54.07% | 42.21% | Erik Paulsen (115th Congress) |
Dean Phillips (116th Congress) | |||
4th | 64.38% | 30.73% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 76.99% | 18.35% | Keith Ellison (115th Congress) |
Ilhan Omar (116th Congress) | |||
6th | 39.83% | 55.21% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 40.23% | 55.21% | Collin Peterson |
8th | 46.84% | 48.28% | Rick Nolan (115th Congress) |
Pete Stauber (116th Congress) |
Demographic subgroup | Smith | Housley | No answer | % of voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 49 | 49 | 2 | 46 |
Women | 61 | 37 | 2 | 54 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 70 | 28 | 2 | 6 |
25–29 years old | 55 | 42 | 3 | 5 |
30–39 years old | 60 | 38 | 2 | 12 |
40–49 years old | 51 | 45 | 4 | 13 |
50–64 years old | 53 | 45 | 2 | 29 |
65 and older | 55 | 44 | 1 | 35 |
Race | ||||
White | 53 | 45 | 2 | 89 |
Black | 85 | 12 | 3 | 5 |
Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 46 | 52 | 2 | 41 |
White women | 59 | 40 | 1 | 48 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 56 | 43 | 1 | 17 |
Some college education | 48 | 48 | 4 | 24 |
Associate degree | 47 | 51 | 2 | 17 |
Bachelor's degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 26 |
Advanced degree | 69 | 29 | 2 | 16 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 62 | 37 | 1 | 38 |
White no college degree | 46 | 52 | 2 | 51 |
Non-white college graduates | 72 | 28 | N/A | 4 |
Non-white no college degree | 77 | 18 | 5 | 7 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 68 | 30 | 2 | 21 |
White women without college degrees | 51 | 46 | 3 | 28 |
White men with college degrees | 55 | 44 | 1 | 17 |
White men without college degrees | 40 | 58 | 2 | 23 |
Non-whites | 75 | 21 | 4 | 11 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 63 | 33 | 4 | 14 |
$30,000–49,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 20 |
$50,000–99,999 | 49 | 48 | 3 | 36 |
$100,000–199,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 23 |
Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 96 | 4 | N/A | 39 |
Republicans | 9 | 90 | 1 | 32 |
Independents | 53 | 43 | 4 | 29 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 96 | 4 | N/A | 14 |
Democratic women | 95 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
Republican men | 7 | 91 | 2 | 15 |
Republican women | 10 | 89 | 1 | 17 |
Independent men | 47 | 49 | 4 | 16 |
Independent women | 60 | 36 | 4 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 93 | 4 | 3 | 27 |
Moderates | 67 | 31 | 2 | 39 |
Conservatives | 11 | 87 | 2 | 33 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 50 | 48 | 2 | 67 |
Unmarried | 65 | 33 | 2 | 33 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 47 | 52 | 1 | 31 |
Married women | 52 | 45 | 3 | 36 |
Unmarried men | 55 | 40 | 5 | 15 |
Unmarried women | 74 | 26 | N/A | 17 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 53 | 46 | 1 | 12 |
No | 58 | 40 | 2 | 88 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 75 | 23 | 2 | 49 |
Immigration | 23 | 75 | 2 | 22 |
Economy | 32 | 65 | 3 | 19 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 66 | 31 | 3 | 40 |
Suburban | 52 | 45 | 3 | 32 |
Rural | 42 | 56 | 2 | 28 |
Source: CNN [117] |
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Official campaign websites