2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
  2018 (special) November 3, 2020 2026  
  Tina Smith, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg Jason Lewis, official portrait, 115th congress (cropped).jpg Blanco portrait.svg
Nominee Tina Smith Jason Lewis Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Legal Marijuana Now
Popular vote1,566,5221,398,145190,154
Percentage48.74%43.50%5.91%

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by county.svg
MN-2020-sen-districts.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by precinct.svg
Smith:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Lewis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.

Contents

Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11. [1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for president in 2016 [3] [4] [5]
  • Ahmad Hassan [5]
  • Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 [6] [5]
  • Christopher Seymore Sr. [5]

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Smith-->90%
Smith--80-90%
Smith--70-80% 2020 MN US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Smith—>90%
  •   Smith—80–90%
  •   Smith—70–80%
Democratic primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 497,498 87.14%
Democratic (DFL) Paula Overby30,4975.34%
Democratic (DFL) Ahmad Hassan20,0373.51%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson16,4292.88%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher Seymore6,4801.13%
Total votes570,941 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • John L. Berman [5]
  • Bob Carney Jr. [5] [33]
  • Cynthia Gail, art teacher [34]
  • James Reibestein [5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jason Lewis

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
Lewis--80-90%
Lewis--70-80%
Lewis--60-70%
Lewis--50-60% 2020 MN US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Lewis—80–90%
  •   Lewis—70–80%
  •   Lewis—60–70%
  •   Lewis—50–60%
Republican primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jason Lewis 191,290 78.11%
Republican Cynthia Gail17,6757.22%
Republican John Berman16,2136.62%
Republican Bob Carney Jr.10,5034.29%
Republican James Reibestein9,2103.76%
Total votes244,891 100.00%

Other candidates

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis

Nominee

  • Oliver Steinberg [5]

Results

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg 3,275 100.00%
Total votes3,275 100.00%

Nominee

  • Kevin O'Connor [5]

Primary results

County Results for Kevin O'Connor:
Map legend
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3% Minnesota Senatorial Election Results 2020 (LMN Party).svg
County Results for Kevin O'Connor:
Map legend
  •   8%
  •   7%
  •   6%
  •   5%
  •   4%
  •   3%
Legal Marijuana Now primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 6,996 100.00%
Total votes6,996 100.00%

Independent write-in candidate

Declared

  • George Dennis Jr. [47]
  • Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate [48] [49]

General election

Debate

Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis. [50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis. [51]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [53] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [55] Likely DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [56] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [57] TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [58] Likely DNovember 3, 2020
538 [59] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [60] Likely DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Jason Lewis (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Other individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tina
Smith (DFL)
Jason
Lewis (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co. [87] October 31 – November 1, 2020450 (LV)4.6%50%39%2% [a] 9%
Data for Progress [88] October 27 – November 1, 20201,259 (LV)± 2.8%54%44%2% [b]
Swayable [89] October 23 – November 1, 2020430 (LV)± 6.1%55%46%
Public Policy Polling [90] October 29–30, 2020770 (V)51%42%6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart [91] October 25–30, 20201,138 (LV)53%44%3% [c]
St. Cloud State University [92] October 10–29, 2020372 (A)± 6.7%53%36%
SurveyUSA [93] October 23–27, 2020649 (LV)± 4.3%45%42%3% [d] 10%
Gravis Marketing [94] October 24–26, 2020657 (LV)± 3.8%53%39%8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos [95] October 17–20, 2020840 (LV)± 3.6%54%43%2% [e] 1%
SurveyUSA [96] October 16–20, 2020625 (LV)± 5%43%42%3% [d] 12%
Change Research [97] October 12–15, 2020 [f] 1,021 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%4% [g] 5%
SurveyUSA [98] October 1–6, 2020929 (LV)± 3.9%44%37%4% [h] 16%
Suffolk University [99] September 20–24, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%45%35%6% [i] 14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [100] September 21–23, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [101] September 12–17, 2020718 (LV)± 3.7%51%36%2% [j] 11%
CBS News/YouGov [102] September 9–11, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.9%47%40%2% [a] 10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [103] September 8–10, 2020814 (LV)± 3.9%49%40%0% [k] 11% [l]
SurveyUSA [104] September 4–7, 2020553 (LV)± 5.2%47%36%3% [d] 14%
Public Policy Polling [105] September 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%49%41%3% [m] 7%
Harper Polling (R) [106] [A] August 30 – September 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.4%43%41%10%
Emerson College [107] August 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%48%45%7%
Public Policy Polling (D) [108] [B] July 22–23, 20201,218 (V)± 3.2%48%39%13%
Harper Polling (R) [106] [A] May 26–28, 2020510 (LV)46%35%20%
Hypothetical polling

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
PPP [109] Sep 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%51%44%4%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis [110] [A] Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.38%45%43%3% [m] 9%
Emerson College [107] Aug 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%48%46%7%
Harper Polling (R) [106] [A] May 26–28, 2020510 (LV)44%40%

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota swing map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota trend map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota [111]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,566,522 48.74% −4.23%
Republican Jason Lewis 1,398,14543.50%+1.15%
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor190,1545.91%+2.21%
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg57,1741.78%N/A
Write-in 2,2610.07%+0.03%
Total votes3,214,256 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

By county

By county
County [112] Tina Smith
DFL
Jason Lewis
Republican
Kevin O'Connor
LMN
Oliver Steinberg
G–LC
Write-in MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Aitkin 3,47435.295,76158.524624.691431.4550.05-2,287-23.239,845
Anoka 89,41643.2498,04347.4115,3857.443,8421.861180.06-8,627-4.17206,804
Becker 6,37033.4911,27459.281,0695.622971.5690.05-4,904-25.7819,019
Beltrami 9,98741.8811,46848.091,8047.575642.37220.09-1,481-6.2123,845
Benton 6,83531.3912,91559.321,5397.074652.14170.08-6,080-27.9321,771
Big Stone 1,10637.521,63755.531635.53391.3230.10-531-18.012,948
Blue Earth 16,52746.7815,04042.572,8478.068712.47410.121,4874.2135,326
Brown 4,80833.238,73660.386904.772241.55100.07-3,928-27.1514,468
Carlton 9,57748.018,90644.651,0925.473611.81110.066713.3619,947
Carver 27,61642.1633,62351.333,2925.039281.42380.06-6,007-9.1765,497
Cass 5,91332.6610,87760.089665.333331.84160.09-4,964-27.4218,105
Chippewa 2,27034.773,80758.323585.48901.3830.05-1,537-23.546,528
Chisago 11,01432.6219,70058.342,3406.936922.05200.06-8,686-25.7233,766
Clay 15,13647.9913,30842.202,3487.457162.27290.091,8285.8031,537
Clearwater 1,22426.503,07866.652425.24691.4950.11-1,854-40.154,618
Cook 2,34463.081,16231.271333.58731.9640.111,18231.813,716
Cottonwood 1,79429.943,79663.353215.36801.3310.02-2,002-33.415,992
Crow Wing 12,96432.7623,79260.112,0325.137741.96160.04-10,828-27.3639,578
Dakota 131,39450.89107,11741.4915,3185.934,1621.611960.0824,2779.40258,187
Dodge 4,01333.456,92457.718066.722482.0760.05-2,911-24.2611,997
Douglas 7,61732.0314,77562.131,0554.443211.35140.06-7,158-30.1023,782
Faribault 2,53132.664,62459.664445.731481.9130.04-2,093-27.017,750
Fillmore 4,69639.226,44053.796255.222051.7160.05-1,744-14.5711,972
Freeborn 6,79741.098,36450.571,0576.393131.89100.06-1,567-9.4716,541
Goodhue 11,18639.4515,17153.501,4865.244891.72250.09-3,985-14.0528,357
Grant 1,34937.512,04456.841634.53391.0810.03-695-19.333,596
Hennepin 478,12964.46209,75428.2841,2825.5612,1301.634960.07268,37536.18741,791
Houston 4,47839.965,77851.567006.252432.1780.07-1,300-11.6011,207
Hubbard 4,28133.437,71360.235724.472321.8170.06-3,432-26.8012,805
Isanti 6,75128.3414,77462.011,6717.016082.55200.08-8,023-33.6823,824
Itasca 10,46339.8813,94953.171,3535.164581.74140.05-3,486-13.2926,237
Jackson 1,74430.553,52461.743235.661152.0120.04-1,780-31.185,708
Kanabec 2,61228.915,65762.625776.391852.0530.03-3,045-33.719,034
Kandiyohi 8,11735.3213,38858.251,1515.013121.36160.07-5,271-22.9322,984
Kittson 1,11642.971,35051.98983.77321.2310.04-234-9.012,597
Koochiching 2,63739.083,62953.783655.411141.6930.04-992-14.706,748
Lac qui Parle 1,47737.082,31458.101393.49521.3110.02-837-21.013,983
Lake 3,48548.953,15544.313324.661442.0240.063304.647,120
Lake of the Woods 65027.611,54565.631215.14371.5710.04-895-38.022,354
Le Sueur 5,40132.749,82559.569695.872971.8050.03-4,424-26.8216,497
Lincoln 91129.551,93662.801835.94491.5940.13-1,025-33.253,083
Lyon 4,46435.037,40158.086685.241951.53140.11-2,937-23.0512,742
Mahnomen 1,03945.851,00744.441697.46482.1230.13321.412,266
Marshall 1,49029.733,25564.961983.95621.2460.12-1,765-35.225,011
Martin 3,34830.796,70761.686135.642001.8460.05-3,359-30.8910,874
McLeod 6,11429.6412,87562.431,2235.933931.91190.09-6,761-32.7820,624
Meeker 3,88929.128,57564.206644.972211.6570.05-4,686-35.0813,356
Mille Lacs 4,12328.748,85161.691,0257.143342.33150.10-4,728-32.9514,348
Morrison 4,45223.2513,36869.821,0125.293071.6070.04-8,916-46.5719,146
Mower 8,47244.928,61545.681,3807.323852.0470.04-143-0.7618,859
Murray 1,44830.153,08164.152214.60521.0810.02-1,633-34.004,803
Nicollet 8,99247.648,39744.481,0625.634122.18130.075953.1518,876
Nobles 2,77632.874,95958.725436.431621.9250.06-2,183-25.858,445
Norman 1,49744.591,61748.171935.75481.4320.06-120-3.573,357
Olmsted 45,54351.2236,97241.584,7305.321,6041.80600.078,5719.6488,909
Otter Tail 11,72832.7521,73860.701,8175.075101.42190.05-10,010-27.9535,812
Pennington 2,57435.763,91954.455667.861331.8550.07-1,345-18.697,197
Pine 5,05532.169,34159.441,0056.393101.9750.03-4,286-27.2715,716
Pipestone 1,20024.683,32468.372645.43711.4630.06-2,124-43.694,862
Polk 5,57736.458,55955.949175.992361.54100.06-2,982-19.4915,299
Pope 2,39034.664,13559.962904.20771.1240.06-1,745-25.306,896
Ramsey 188,78465.5573,63825.5719,0876.636,1582.143240.11115,14639.98287,991
Red Lake 76935.921,22257.081145.32331.5431.40-453-21.162,141
Redwood 2,29728.065,41566.153554.341141.3950.06-3,118-38.098,186
Renville 2,50031.474,92762.013904.911221.5460.07-2,427-30.557,945
Rice 16,20146.2015,99945.632,1386.107012.00240.072020.5835,063
Rock 1,46128.423,28663.932945.72981.9110.02-1,825-35.515,140
Roseau 2,32127.935,49466.113964.76951.1440.05-3,173-38.188,310
Scott 35,75841.3444,21551.115,2186.031,2691.47460.05-8,457-9.7886,506
Sherburne 16,58430.4633,14560.883,7026.809741.79420.08-16,561-30.4254,447
Sibley 2,36828.525,39164.944265.131121.3550.06-3,023-36.418,302
St. Louis 63,03653.8145,01638.436,5455.592,4512.09870.0718,02015.38117,135
Stearns 29,93135.8947,08056.454,8435.811,4841.78640.08-17,149-20.5683,402
Steele 7,41236.0011,35855.161,3816.714352.1150.02-3,946-19.1620,591
Stevens 1,90638.022,84856.811923.83671.3400.00-942-18.795,013
Swift 1,83835.703,02058.662264.39631.2210.02-1,182-22.965,148
Todd 3,35425.688,84267.706504.982051.57100.08-5,488-42.0213,061
Traverse 65635.871,04557.13985.36271.4830.16-389-21.271,829
Wabasha 4,51335.027,53558.476434.991901.4750.04-3,022-23.4512,886
Wadena 1,97726.095,04166.524195.531371.8140.05-3,064-40.437,578
Waseca 3,36532.956,04359.176296.161721.6840.04-2,678-26.2210,213
Washington 80,47949.2171,90643.978,3825.122,6791.641060.068,5735.24163,552
Watonwan 1,96038.482,75254.022985.85811.5930.06-792-15.555,094
Wilkin 1,09532.611,98859.202036.05712.1110.03-893-26.593,358
Winona 12,00245.4811,96145.321,8136.875942.25200.08410.1626,390
Wright 25,89634.9648,17365.045,0096.761,5232.06600.08-22,277-30.0874,069
Yellow Medicine 1,67830.783,43663.022704.95651.1930.06-1,758-32.245,452
Totals1,566,52248.741,398,14543.50190,1545.9257,1741.782,2610.07168,3775.243,214,256

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.

DistrictSmithLewisRepresentative
1st 41.9%49.8% Jim Hagedorn
2nd 47.9%44.5% Angie Craig
3rd 53.1%40.1% Dean Phillips
4th 61.7%30.1% Betty McCollum
5th 73.4%18.3% Ilhan Omar
6th 36%55.7% Tom Emmer
7th 34%58.9% Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
8th 40%52.3% Pete Stauber

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
  2. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  3. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  4. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  6. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  8. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  9. O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
  10. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
  11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period

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A special election was held in the U.S. state of Minnesota on February 5, 2019, to elect a new senator for District 11 in the Minnesota Senate, caused by the resignation of Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) Senator Tony Lourey effective on January 3, 2019, to be appointed as commissioner of human services in Governor Tim Walz's cabinet. A primary election was held on January 22, 2019, to nominate a DFL candidate. Jason Rarick, the Republican nominee, won the special election. Rarick's win caused a special election for the seat he held in the Minnesota House of Representatives.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota, one from each of its congressional districts. Primary elections were held in six districts on August 11. The elections coincided with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and other state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election</span>

The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, former state senator Scott Jensen, winning a second term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. These were the first congressional elections held in Iowa after the 2020 redistricting cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 8, 2022, to elect U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, concurrent with nationwide elections to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, alongside legislative elections to the state house and senate. Primaries were held on May 17, 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Illinois</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Minnesota Attorney General election</span>

The 2022 Minnesota Attorney General election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the attorney general of the U.S. state of Minnesota. Incumbent DFLer Keith Ellison narrowly won reelection to a second term against Republican challenger Jim Schultz.

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Official campaign websites