2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

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Turnout	60.4%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 756,764 539,398 Percentage 57.60% 41.06%
County Results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[2]

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate.

As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 81% of White Mississippi voters supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippi voters supported Biden. ^[3] 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate. ^[4] Biden managed to very narrowly flip Warren County, winning it with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Mississippi Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. ^[5]

2020 Mississippi Republican primary ^[6]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	240,125	98.6%	40
Bill Weld	2,292	0.9%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	1,078	0.4%	0
Total	243,495	100%	40

Democratic primary

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race. ^[7]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary § MSresults.[ edit ]

2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary ^[8]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [9]
Joe Biden	222,160	80.96	34
Bernie Sanders	40,657	14.82	2
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	6,933	2.53
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	1,550	0.56
Tulsi Gabbard	1,003	0.37
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	562	0.20
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	450	0.16
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	440	0.16
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	378	0.14
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	258	0.09
Total	274,391	100%	36

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [10]	Safe R	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [11]	Safe R	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12]	Safe R	July 14, 2020
Politico [13]	Safe R	September 8, 2020
RCP [14]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
Niskanen [15]	Safe R	July 26, 2020
CNN [16]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
The Economist [17]	Likely R	September 2, 2020
CBS News [18]	Likely R	August 16, 2020
270towin [19]	Safe R	August 2, 2020
ABC News [20]	Safe R	July 31, 2020
NPR [21]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
NBC News [22]	Safe R	August 6, 2020
538 [23]	Likely R	November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	October 17–27, 2020	November 3, 2020	40.0%	57.0%	3.0%	Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	39.6%	55.5%	4.9%	Trump +15.9
Average			39.8%	56.3%	3.9%	Trump +16.5

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,461 (LV)	± 4%	61% [lower-alpha 3]	37%	-	-	–	–
Data For Progress	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	562 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	41%	2%	1%	1% [lower-alpha 4]	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 23–26, 2020	507 (LV)	± 5.3%	55%	41%	-	-	3% [lower-alpha 5]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,116 (LV)	–	62%	37%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	782 (LV)	–	55%	44%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	607 (LV)	–	61%	36%	-	-	–	3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance [upper-alpha 1]	Aug 28–30, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	50%	40%	No voters	-	No voters [lower-alpha 6]	6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy [upper-alpha 2]	Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	53% [lower-alpha 7]	43%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	733 (LV)	–	59%	39%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	425 (LV)	–	63%	35%	-	-	–	2%
Chism Strategies (D)	Jun 2–4, 2020	568 (LV)	± 4.1%	50%	41%	-	-	6% [lower-alpha 8]	3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College	Apr 8–9, 2020	508 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	38%	-	-	7%	7%
Mason-Dixon	Feb 26–28, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	56%	41%	-	-	–	3%

Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Mason-Dixon Feb 26–28, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 59% 36% 5%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	756,764	57.60%	−0.26%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	539,398	41.06%	+1.00%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	8,026	0.61%	−0.58%
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	3,657	0.28%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	1,498	0.11%	−0.20%
	Prohibition	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker	1,317	0.10%
	American Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	1,279	0.10%	−0.23%
	American Solidarity	Brian T. Carroll Amar Patel	1,161	0.09%
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	659	0.05%
	Write-in
Total votes			1,313,759	100%

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	5,696	41.40%	7,917	57.54%	146	1.06%	-2,221	-16.14%	13,759
Alcorn	12,818	81.16%	2,782	17.62%	193	1.22%	10,036	63.54%	15,793
Amite	4,503	62.58%	2,620	36.41%	73	1.01%	1,863	26.17%	7,196
Attala	5,178	58.69%	3,542	40.15%	103	1.16%	1,636	18.54%	8,823
Benton	2,570	59.92%	1,679	39.15%	40	0.93%	891	20.77%	4,289
Bolivar	4,671	33.99%	8,904	64.78%	169	1.23%	-4,233	-30.79%	13,744
Calhoun	4,625	70.18%	1,902	28.86%	63	0.96%	2,723	41.32%	6,590
Carroll	3,924	68.83%	1,729	30.33%	48	0.84%	2,195	38.50%	5,701
Chickasaw	4,175	51.28%	3,810	46.80%	156	1.92%	365	4.48%	8,141
Choctaw	3,001	71.06%	1,185	28.06%	37	0.88%	1,816	43.00%	4,223
Claiborne	603	13.55%	3,772	84.78%	74	1.67%	-3,169	-71.23%	4,449
Clarke	5,417	64.97%	2,838	34.04%	83	0.99%	2,579	30.93%	8,338
Clay	4,181	41.03%	5,844	57.36%	164	1.61%	-1,663	-16.33%	10,189
Coahoma	2,375	27.94%	6,020	70.82%	106	1.24%	-3,645	-42.88%	8,501
Copiah	6,250	48.51%	6,470	50.22%	163	1.27%	-220	-1.71%	12,883
Covington	5,854	62.54%	3,416	36.50%	90	0.96%	2,438	26.04%	9,360
DeSoto	46,462	61.03%	28,265	37.13%	1,397	1.84%	18,197	23.90%	76,124
Forrest	17,290	54.62%	13,755	43.45%	609	1.93%	3,535	11.17%	31,654
Franklin	2,923	65.52%	1,480	33.18%	58	1.30%	1,443	32.34%	4,461
George	9,713	87.91%	1,218	11.02%	118	1.07%	8,495	76.89%	11,049
Greene	4,794	82.48%	966	16.62%	52	0.90%	3,828	65.86%	5,812
Grenada	6,081	55.73%	4,734	43.39%	96	0.88%	1,347	12.34%	10,911
Hancock	16,132	76.98%	4,504	21.49%	321	1.53%	11,628	55.49%	20,957
Harrison	46,822	61.70%	27,728	36.54%	1,335	1.76%	19,094	25.16%	75,885
Hinds	25,141	25.09%	73,550	73.40%	1,517	1.51%	-48,409	-48.31%	100,208
Holmes	1,369	16.87%	6,588	81.18%	158	1.95%	-5,219	-64.31%	8,115
Humphreys	1,118	26.69%	3,016	72.00%	55	1.31%	-1,898	-45.31%	4,189
Issaquena	308	45.56%	355	52.51%	13	1.93%	-47	-6.95%	676
Itawamba	9,438	87.24%	1,249	11.54%	132	1.22%	8,189	75.70%	10,819
Jackson	36,295	66.54%	17,375	31.86%	873	1.60%	18,920	34.68%	54,543
Jasper	4,302	49.24%	4,341	49.69%	93	1.07%	-39	-0.45%	8,736
Jefferson	531	13.59%	3,327	85.13%	50	1.28%	-2,796	-71.54%	3,908
Jefferson Davis	2,534	40.79%	3,599	57.93%	80	1.28%	-1,065	-17.14%	6,213
Jones	21,226	70.54%	8,517	28.30%	348	1.16%	12,709	42.24%	30,091
Kemper	1,787	37.77%	2,887	61.02%	57	1.21%	-1,100	-23.25%	4,731
Lafayette	12,949	55.28%	10,070	42.99%	404	1.73%	2,879	12.29%	23,423
Lamar	20,704	72.57%	7,340	25.73%	486	1.70%	13,364	46.84%	28,530
Lauderdale	17,967	57.50%	12,960	41.48%	320	1.02%	5,007	16.02%	31,247
Lawrence	4,285	64.80%	2,260	34.18%	68	1.02%	2,025	30.62%	6,613
Leake	5,228	56.83%	3,897	42.36%	75	0.81%	1,331	14.47%	9,200
Lee	24,207	65.51%	12,189	32.98%	558	1.51%	12,018	32.53%	36,954
Leflore	3,129	28.72%	7,648	70.21%	116	1.07%	-4,519	-41.49%	10,893
Lincoln	11,596	69.02%	5,040	30.00%	165	0.98%	6,556	39.02%	16,801
Lowndes	13,800	50.66%	13,087	48.04%	354	1.30%	713	2.62%	27,241
Madison	31,091	55.16%	24,440	43.36%	830	1.48%	6,651	11.80%	56,361
Marion	8,273	67.94%	3,787	31.10%	117	0.96%	4,486	36.84%	12,177
Marshall	7,566	47.83%	8,057	50.94%	194	1.23%	-491	-3.11%	15,817
Monroe	11,177	64.76%	5,874	34.03%	208	1.21%	5,303	30.73%	17,259
Montgomery	2,917	57.48%	2,121	41.79%	37	0.73%	796	15.69%	5,075
Neshoba	8,320	71.09%	3,260	27.86%	123	1.05%	5,060	43.23%	11,703
Newton	6,997	68.71%	3,075	30.20%	111	1.09%	3,922	38.51%	10,183
Noxubee	1,240	23.23%	4,040	75.67%	59	1.10%	-2,800	-52.44%	5,339
Oktibbeha	9,004	45.57%	10,299	52.13%	454	2.30%	-1,295	-6.56%	19,757
Panola	8,060	51.58%	7,403	47.37%	164	1.05%	657	4.21%	15,627
Pearl River	19,595	81.53%	4,148	17.26%	290	1.21%	15,447	64.27%	24,033
Perry	4,500	76.06%	1,362	23.02%	54	0.92%	3,138	53.04%	5,916
Pike	8,479	48.84%	8,646	49.80%	236	1.36%	-167	-0.96%	17,361
Pontotoc	11,550	80.43%	2,614	18.20%	197	1.37%	8,936	62.23%	14,361
Prentiss	8,370	78.64%	2,153	20.23%	121	1.13%	6,217	58.41%	10,644
Quitman	1,026	31.80%	2,150	66.65%	50	1.55%	-1,124	-34.85%	3,226
Rankin	50,895	71.89%	18,847	26.62%	1,057	1.49%	32,048	45.27%	70,799
Scott	6,285	58.56%	4,330	40.34%	118	1.10%	1,955	18.22%	10,733
Sharkey	688	31.52%	1,465	67.11%	30	1.37%	-777	-35.59%	2,183
Simpson	7,635	64.62%	4,037	34.17%	143	1.21%	3,598	30.45%	11,815
Smith	6,458	77.55%	1,791	21.51%	78	0.94%	4,667	56.04%	8,327
Stone	5,964	75.70%	1,802	22.87%	112	1.43%	4,162	52.83%	7,878
Sunflower	2,799	28.91%	6,781	70.04%	101	1.05%	-3,982	-41.13%	9,681
Tallahatchie	2,488	43.76%	3,105	54.62%	92	1.62%	-617	-10.86%	5,685
Tate	8,707	66.50%	4,183	31.95%	203	1.55%	4,524	34.55%	13,093
Tippah	8,054	79.73%	1,937	19.17%	111	1.10%	6,117	60.56%	10,102
Tishomingo	7,933	86.81%	1,059	11.59%	146	1.60%	6,874	75.22%	9,138
Tunica	926	25.97%	2,580	72.37%	59	1.66%	-1,654	-46.40%	3,565
Union	10,373	81.79%	2,160	17.03%	150	1.18%	8,213	64.76%	12,683
Walthall	4,220	59.28%	2,835	39.82%	64	0.90%	1,385	19.46%	7,119
Warren	10,365	49.23%	10,442	49.60%	246	1.17%	-77	-0.37%	21,053
Washington	5,300	29.39%	12,503	69.33%	231	1.28%	-7,203	-39.94%	18,034
Wayne	6,307	62.72%	3,624	36.04%	125	1.24%	2,683	26.68%	10,056
Webster	4,291	79.54%	1,043	19.33%	61	1.13%	3,248	60.21%	5,395
Wilkinson	1,324	32.08%	2,749	66.61%	56	1.31%	-1,425	-34.53%	4,127
Winston	5,112	55.35%	4,040	43.74%	84	0.91%	1,072	11.61%	9,236
Yalobusha	3,671	56.17%	2,785	42.62%	79	1.21%	886	13.55%	6,535
Yazoo	4,832	46.30%	5,496	52.66%	108	1.04%	-664	-6.36%	10,436
Totals	756,764	57.57%	539,398	41.04%	18,313	1.39%	217,366	16.53%	1,211,088

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	64.8%	33.8%	Trent Kelly
2nd	35.2%	63.7%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	60.1%	38.6%	Michael Guest
4th	68.3%	30.3%	Steven Palazzo

Analysis

Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump easily carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was rejected. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to get rid of the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden. ^[3]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Mississippi
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
4. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
5. "Someone else" with 3%
6. "Refused" with no voters
7. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
8. "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
2. Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
4. "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times . November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved January 27, 2021.
5. Harrison, Bobby (February 27, 2020). "Who's on the ballot for Mississippi's March 10 primary?". Mississippi Today. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
6. "2020 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
7. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
8. "2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
9. "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press . Retrieved November 23, 2022.
10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
17. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
18. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
19. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
20. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
21. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
22. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
23. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
24. "2020 General Election". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 14, 2020. Retrieved December 5, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Mississippi

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Mississippi", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Mississippi: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Mississippi". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Mississippi at Ballotpedia