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Turnout | 63.1% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Tuberville: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% Jones: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Alabama |
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Government |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016. [2] Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent Roy Moore. [3]
As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones, [4] [5] [6] [7] whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydings in 1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed. [8] [9]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Stanley Adair | Mo Brooks | Bradley Byrne | Del Marsh | John Merrill | Arnold Mooney | Roy Moore | Ruth Page Nelson | Gary Palmer | Jeff Sessions | Tommy Tuberville | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence [63] [A] | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | 29% | 32% | <1% | 15% |
WPA Intelligence [64] [A] | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | 34% | 29% | – | 15% |
Harper Polling [65] [B] | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | 26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
Mason-Dixon [66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 29% | 2% | 16% |
OnMessage [67] [C] | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 21% | – | – |
OnMessage [68] [C] | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | 44% | 21% | – | 12% |
Cherry Communications [69] [D] | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | 35% | 31% | – | – |
Merrill withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Filing deadline, by which Palmer had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Nelson and Sessions announce their candidacies | ||||||||||||||||
WPA Intelligence [70] [A] | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | 36% | 23% | – | – |
Cygnal [71] | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% | – | 28% |
Tommy for Senate [72] [E] | Released on October 5, 2019 | – (LV) [b] | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 36% | – | 26% |
Moore Information [73] [F] | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 33% | 3% | 17% |
Merrill announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Cygnal [74] | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 22% |
– | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 29% | 21% | – | – | ||||
Moore announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Moore Information [75] [F] | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | 18% | – | – | – | 23% | 6% | 28% |
Brooks announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
Marsh announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon [76] | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | 18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2% [c] | 25% |
Victory Phones [77] [G] | Released in February 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | 27% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 239,616 | 33.39% | |
Republican | Jeff Sessions | 227,088 | 31.64% | |
Republican | Bradley Byrne | 178,627 | 24.89% | |
Republican | Roy Moore | 51,377 | 7.16% | |
Republican | Ruth Page Nelson | 7,200 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Arnold Mooney | 7,149 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Stanley Adair | 6,608 | 0.92% | |
Total votes | 717,665 | 100.00% |
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020, [79] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. [80]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jeff Sessions | Tommy Tuberville | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn University at Montgomery [81] | July 2–9, 2020 | 558 (RV) | ± 6% | 31% | 47% | 22% [d] |
OnMessage (R) [82] [C] | May 26–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 49% | 8% [e] |
FM3 Research (D) [83] [H] | May 14–18, 2020 | – (LV) [b] | – | 32% | 54% | 14% [f] |
Cygnal [84] | May 7–10, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.98% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
FM3 Research (D) [83] [H] | March, 2020 | – (LV) [b] | – | 36% | 54% | 10% [g] |
OnMessage (R) [85] [C] | March 8–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Cygnal [86] | March 6–8, 2020 | 645 (LV) | + 3.86% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Moore Information Group [87] [F] | March 5–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
WT&S Consulting [88] | March 5, 2020 | 1,234 (LV) | + 3.29% | 42% | 49% | 8% [e] |
Mason-Dixon [66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer
with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions
with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne
with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore
|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 334,675 | 60.73% | |
Republican | Jeff Sessions | 216,452 | 39.27% | |
Total votes | 551,127 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [97] | Lean R (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [98] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [99] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [100] | Likely R (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [101] | Lean R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [102] | Likely R (flip) | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [103] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
538 [104] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [105] | Safe R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
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Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Tommy Tuberville (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable [117] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 294 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 42% | 58% | – | – |
Data for Progress [118] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 56% | 0% [h] | – |
Morning Consult [119] | October 22–31, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 3% | 39% | 51% | – | – |
Auburn University At Montgomery [120] | October 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 54% | 3% | – |
Swayable [121] | October 23–26, 2020 | 232 (LV) | ± 8.7% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Cygnal [122] | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 55% | – | 4% |
Moore Information (R) [123] [F] | October 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 55% | – | – |
FM3 Research (D) [124] [H] | October 11–14, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% [i] |
Auburn University at Montgomery [125] | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 54% | 4% | – |
Morning Consult [126] | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | 52% | – | – |
Morning Consult [127] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 52% | 4% [j] | 9% |
Auburn University at Montgomery [128] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 44% | 7% [k] | 14% |
WPA Intelligence (R) [129] [K] | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV) [l] | ± 3.8% | 40% | 50% | – | – |
ALG Research (D) [130] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
Cygnal (R) [131] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 50% | 2% [m] | 13% |
FM3 Research (D) [83] [H] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
Mason-Dixon [66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
With Jeff Sessions
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Jeff Sessions (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn University at Montgomery [133] | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 49% | 7% [n] | 1% |
ALG Research (D) [130] | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) [131] | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 35% | 45% | 3% [o] | 18% |
Mason-Dixon [66] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
With Bradley Byrne
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Bradley Byrne (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon [90] | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
With Arnold Mooney
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Arnold Mooney (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 34% | 25% |
With Roy Moore
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Roy Moore (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
With Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon [76] | Apr 9–11, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
With Generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Doug Jones (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics [132] | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 48% [L] | 18% |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal [122] | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 55% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 1,392,076 | 60.10% | +11.76% | |
Democratic | Doug Jones (incumbent) | 920,478 | 39.74% | −10.23% | |
Write-in | 3,891 | 0.17% | −1.06% | ||
Total votes | 2,316,445 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Tuberville won 6 of 7 congressional districts. [136]
District | Jones | Tuberville | Elected representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 39% | 61% | Jerry Carl |
2nd | 38% | 62% | Barry Moore |
3rd | 36% | 64% | Mike Rogers |
4th | 21% | 79% | Robert Aderholt |
5th | 39% | 60% | Mo Brooks |
6th | 35% | 65% | Gary Palmer |
7th | 73% | 27% | Terri Sewell |
The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.
In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Auburn-Opelika, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt. [137] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconduct allegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements. [138] [139] [140] With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020, [141] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.
Partisan clients and other notes
Voter samples
Thomas Hawley Tuberville is an American politician and retired college football coach who is the senior United States senator from Alabama, a seat he has held since 2021. Before entering politics, Tuberville was the head football coach at Auburn University from 1999 to 2008. He was also the head football coach at the University of Mississippi from 1995 to 1998, Texas Tech University from 2010 to 2012, and the University of Cincinnati from 2013 to 2016.
Bradley Roberts Byrne is an American attorney and politician who served as the U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district from 2014 to 2021. Elected as a member of the state Board of Education as a Democrat in 1994, he became a member of the Republican Party in 1997, and served in the Alabama Senate from 2003 to 2007, representing the state's 32nd district.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Alabama took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Alabama.
A special election for Alabama's 1st congressional district was held following the resignation of Jo Bonner on August 2, 2013, to become vice chancellor for the University of Alabama. Primary elections were held on September 24. A runoff in the Republican primary took place on November 5 and the general election was pushed back to December 17. Republican Bradley Byrne won the election by a wide margin in the strongly conservative district.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 Alabama gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Alabama. Incumbent Governor Kay Ivey (R), who took office on April 10, 2017, upon the resignation of Robert Bentley (R) ran for election to a full term and won over Tuscaloosa mayor Walt Maddox. Ivey was sworn in for her first full term on January 14, 2019. This was the first time since 1966 that a woman was elected Governor of Alabama.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama. Incumbent senator Richard Shelby was first elected in 1986 and re-elected in 1992 as a Democrat before becoming a Republican in 1994. In February 2021, Shelby announced that he would not seek re-election to a seventh term, which resulted in the first open Senate seat since 1996 and the first in this seat since 1968.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Alabama, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, as well as elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on June 5, with all choosing a nominee except the Republican primary in the 2nd district, which went to a July 17 runoff. The 2018 general election saw no change in Alabama's representation, remaining at a 6–1 GOP advantage, even though Democrats won over 40% of the statewide vote.
The 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama took place on December 12, 2017, in order for the winner to serve the remainder of the U.S. Senate term ending on January 3, 2021. A vacancy arose from Senator Jeff Sessions's February 8, 2017, resignation from the Senate. Sessions resigned his post to serve as the 84th U.S. attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama, to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. The special election was scheduled for December 12, 2017.
Gordon Douglas Jones is an American attorney and politician who served as a United States senator from Alabama from 2018 to 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, Jones was previously the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama from 1997 to 2001. He is the most recent Democrat to win and/or hold statewide office in Alabama.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8. Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.
The 2020 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Alabama voters chose nine electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot was the Libertarian nominee, psychology lecturer Jo Jorgensen and her running mate, entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen. Write-in candidates were permitted without registration, and their results were not individually counted.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Alabama, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.
The 2022 Alabama gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alabama. Incumbent Governor Kay Ivey took office on April 10, 2017, upon the resignation of Robert J. Bentley (R) and won a full term in 2018. In 2022, she won her bid for a second full term in a landslide.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Alabama, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
Katie Elizabeth Britt is an American politician and attorney serving since 2023 as the junior United States senator from Alabama. A member of the Republican Party, Britt is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Alabama and the youngest Republican woman to be elected to the Senate. She was president and CEO of the Business Council of Alabama from 2019 to 2021, and was chief of staff for her Senate predecessor, Richard Shelby, from 2016 to 2018.
The 2022 Alabama Senate elections took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the 2022 United States elections. Alabama voters elected state senators in all 35 of the state's Senate districts. State senators serve four-year terms in the Alabama Senate in Montgomery.
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Alabama. Incumbent Governor Kay Ivey is term-limited and ineligible to seek a third full consecutive term.
The 2024 Alabama Republican presidential primary was held on March 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 50 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-most basis. The contest was held on Super Tuesday alongside primaries in 14 other states.
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) shut the door on a potential Senate bid Friday morning in a local radio interview. "I will not be running for the U.S. Senate in 2020," Brooks said on WZRR-FM in Birmingham.
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: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)Official campaign websites