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Turnout | 81.33% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bullock: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary. [2]
Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold. [3] However, Gov. Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats. [4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points. [5] Democrats outspent Republicans, $82 million to $63 million, on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle. [6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10-point margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations. [7]
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. [8] This election was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator from Montana was re-elected to this seat.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 192,942 | 88.02% | |
Republican | John Driscoll | 13,944 | 6.36% | |
Republican | Daniel Larson | 12,319 | 5.62% | |
Total votes | 219,205 | 100.00% |
Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race. [2]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 144,949 | 95.45% | |
Democratic | John Mues | 3,740 | 2.46% | |
Democratic | Mike Knoles (withdrawn) | 3,165 | 2.09% | |
Total votes | 151,854 | 100.00% |
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election. [27] [28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes. [29]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Wendie Fredrickson | 504 | 66.40% | |
Green | Dennis Daneke | 255 | 33.60% | |
Total votes | 758 | 100.00% |
Host | Date & Time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steve Daines (R) | Steve Bullock (D) | |||
Montana Broadcasters Association | August 8, 2020 9:30pm MDT | [36] | Present | Present |
Montana Television Network | October 10, 2020 5:47pm MDT | [37] | Present | Present |
Source | Rating | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [38] | Toss Up | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [39] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [40] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [41] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [42] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [43] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [44] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
538 [45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [46] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Bullock | Steve Daines | Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | October 5–24, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 46.4% | 48.8% | 4.8% | Daines + 2.4 |
270 to Win | October 19, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 47.2% | 48.0% | 4.8% | Daines + 0.8 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Steve Bullock (D) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | October 29 – November 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | 6% [lower-alpha 4] |
The Progress Campaign (D) | October 25, 2020 | – (V) [lower-alpha 5] | – | 48% | 48% | – |
Montana State University Billings | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 48% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 6% [lower-alpha 7] |
Strategies 360 | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] |
RMG Research Archived October 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% [lower-alpha 8] | 47% | 5% [lower-alpha 9] |
47% [lower-alpha 10] | 48% | 5% [lower-alpha 9] | ||||
50% [lower-alpha 11] | 45% | 5% [lower-alpha 9] | ||||
Public Policy Polling | October 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4% [lower-alpha 12] |
Emerson College | October 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 43% | 6% [lower-alpha 13] |
Data For Progress (D) | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | 4% [lower-alpha 14] |
Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% [lower-alpha 15] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 44% | 11% [lower-alpha 16] |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates [upper-alpha 2] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3% [lower-alpha 17] |
Emerson College | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% [lower-alpha 13] |
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 3] | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | 9% [lower-alpha 18] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 3% [lower-alpha 19] |
Public Policy Polling | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% [lower-alpha 20] |
University of Montana | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 10% [lower-alpha 21] |
Montana State University Bozeman | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 46% | 15% [lower-alpha 22] |
The Progress Campaign (D) | April 14–21, 2020 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Democratic candidates | Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% [lower-alpha 23] | 47% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Democratic candidates | Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 36% [lower-alpha 24] | 64% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 333,174 | 55.01% | -2.78% | |
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 272,463 | 44.99% | +4.92% | |
Total votes | 605,637 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold | |||||
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Steven David Daines is an American politician and former corporate executive serving as the junior United States senator from Montana since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he represented Montana's at-large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2015.
Stephen Clark Bullock is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 24th governor of Montana from 2013 to 2021. He is a member of the Democratic Party.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Matthew Martin Rosendale Sr. is an American politician. A Republican, Rosendale represents Montana's 2nd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Rosendale served in the Montana House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013, and in the Montana Senate from 2013 to 2017. From 2015 to 2017, he served as Senate majority leader. Rosendale was elected Montana state auditor in 2016 and held that position from 2017 to 2020. Rosendale ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014 and for the U.S. Senate in 2018. He was elected to represent Montana's at-large congressional district in 2020. After Montana regained its second House seat in the 2020 census, Rosendale was elected to represent the new 2nd congressional district in 2022.
John Edward Walsh is an American real estate agent, former politician and former military officer who served as a United States Senator from Montana from 2014 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as a colonel in the Army National Guard, the adjutant general of the Montana National Guard with a state commission as a brigadier general from 2008 to 2012 and the 34th Lieutenant Governor of Montana from 2013 to 2014 under Governor Steve Bullock.
The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.
The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate elections were held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 class 2 seats of the Senate contested in regular elections. Of these, 21 were held by Republicans, and 12 by Democrats. The winners were elected to 6-year terms from January 3, 2021, to January 3, 2027. Two special elections for seats held by Republicans were also held in conjunction with the general elections: one in Arizona, to fill the vacancy created by John McCain's death in 2018; and one in Georgia, following Johnny Isakson's resignation in 2019. These elections ran concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election in which incumbent president Donald Trump lost to Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was Maine's first election for its Class 2 seat to use its ranked choice voting system. Because the first round of the general election saw a majority (51%), the instant runoff tabulation of more than 800,000 ballots was not carried out.
The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office, and he ran unsuccessfully for Montana's Class II Senate seat.
In Montana, an at-large congressional district special election was held on May 25, 2017, to determine the member of the United States House of Representatives for Montana's at-large congressional district. The election was necessitated by incumbent Republican Representative Ryan Zinke's appointment as United States Secretary of the Interior. Zinke resigned on March 1, 2017, upon his confirmation.
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.
The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The election was conducted with ranked choice voting, as per the result of a referendum passed in 2016.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024. The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 8, 2022, to elect two U.S. Representatives from Montana, one from each of its congressional districts. Prior to this election cycle, Montana had one at-large district, represented by Republican Matt Rosendale. However, during the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained the 2nd district that it lost in 1993. As a result, Montana became the first state relegated from multi-district to at-large status that reclaimed a 2nd representative in the House of Representatives, in which Rosendale ran for re-election.
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