2020 United States Senate election in Montana

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
Turnout81.33% Increase2.svg [1]
  Steve Daines, Official Portrait, 116th Congress.jpg Steve Bullock by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote333,174272,463
Percentage55.01%44.99%

2020 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
MT Senate 2020.svg
Daines:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bullock:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Steve Daines
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary. [2]

Contents

Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold. [3] However, Gov. Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats. [4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points. [5] Democrats outspent Republicans, $82 million to $63 million, on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle. [6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10-point margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations. [7]

This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. [8] This election was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator from Montana was re-elected to this seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Steve Daines
Businessmen

Results

Results by county
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Daines
80-90%
90-100% Montana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county
  Daines
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 192,942 88.02%
Republican John Driscoll 13,9446.36%
Republican Daniel Larson12,3195.62%
Total votes219,205 100.00%

Democratic primary

Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race. [2]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran [15]

Withdrawn

  • Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock) [16]
  • Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock) [17]
  • Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock) [18] (remained on ballot)
  • Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance [19] (endorsed Bullock) [20]
  • Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock) [21]

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Bullock
Federal officials

Results

Results by county
Bullock
80-90%
90-100% Montana U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county
  Bullock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Bullock 144,949 95.45%
Democratic John Mues3,7402.46%
Democratic Mike Knoles (withdrawn)3,1652.09%
Total votes151,854 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election. [27] [28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes. [29]

Withdrawn

Green Party

Disqualified

  • Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services [10] [33] [34]

Eliminated in primary

  • Dennis Daneke, retired college professor [35] [33]

Results

Results by county
Fredrickson
Daneke
Tie
No vote Montana U.S. Senate Green primary, 2020.svg
Results by county
  Fredrickson
  Daneke
  Tie
  No vote
Green primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Wendie Fredrickson 504 66.40%
Green Dennis Daneke25533.60%
Total votes758 100.00%

General election

Debate

HostDate & TimeLink(s)Participants
Steve Daines (R)Steve Bullock (D)
Montana Broadcasters AssociationAugust 8, 2020
9:30pm MDT
[36] PresentPresent
Montana Television NetworkOctober 10, 2020
5:47pm MDT
[37] PresentPresent

Predictions

SourceRatingAs of
The Cook Political Report [38] Toss UpOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [39] TossupOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [40] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [41] Lean ROctober 30, 2020
Politico [42] TossupNovember 2, 2020
RCP [43] TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [44] Lean RNovember 3, 2020
538 [45] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Economist [46] Lean RNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Steve Daines (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updated Steve Bullock Steve Daines Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] Margin
Real Clear Politics October 5–24, 2020October 30, 202046.4%48.8%4.8%
270 to Win October 19, 2020October 28, 202047.2%48.0%4.8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Steve
Daines (R)
Steve
Bullock (D)
Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%3% [lower-alpha 3]
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] October 26–27, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%6% [lower-alpha 4]
The Progress Campaign (D) October 25, 2020– (V) [lower-alpha 5] 48%48%
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%47%48%5% [lower-alpha 6]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%6% [lower-alpha 7]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%48%47%5% [lower-alpha 6]
RMG Research Archived October 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49% [lower-alpha 8] 47%5% [lower-alpha 9]
47% [lower-alpha 10] 48%5% [lower-alpha 9]
50% [lower-alpha 11] 45%5% [lower-alpha 9]
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2020798 (V)± 3.5%48%48%4% [lower-alpha 12]
Emerson College October 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 3.7%52%43%6% [lower-alpha 13]
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 2020737 (LV)± 3.6%47%48%4% [lower-alpha 14]
Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%47%49%4% [lower-alpha 15]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%45%44%11% [lower-alpha 16]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates [upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%3% [lower-alpha 17]
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020584 (LV)± 4.0%50%44%6% [lower-alpha 13]
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 3] July 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%47%44%9% [lower-alpha 18]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%49%47%3% [lower-alpha 19]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%44%46%10% [lower-alpha 20]
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%43%47%10% [lower-alpha 21]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–27, 2020459 (LV)± 4.6%39%46%15% [lower-alpha 22]
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020712 (LV)± 4.6%46%49%5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] March 12–13, 2020903 (V)± 3.3%47%47%6%
Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Democratic
candidates
Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%53% [lower-alpha 23] 47%
Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Democratic
candidates
Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%36% [lower-alpha 24] 64%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2020 [81]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 333,174 55.01% -2.78%
Democratic Steve Bullock 272,46344.99%+4.92%
Total votes605,637 100.00%
Republican hold
By county
County [81] Steve Daines
Republican
Steve Bullock
Democratic
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Beaverhead 3,77566.641,89033.361,88533.275,665
Big Horn 2,10643.942,68756.06-581-12.124,793
Blaine 1,34342.841,79257.16-449-14.323,135
Broadwater 3,10775.601,00324.402,10451.194,110
Carbon 4,40462.962,59137.041,81325.926,995
Carter 76786.089410.5567375.53891
Cascade 22,31255.7317,72744.274,58511.4540,039
Chouteau 1,81360.591,17939.4063421.192,992
Custer 3,99568.171,86531.832,13036.355,860
Daniels 78776.4124323.5954452.821,030
Dawson 3,63475.351,18924.652,44550.704,823
Deer Lodge 1,92139.352,96160.65-1,040-21.304,882
Fallon 1,34185.0923514.911,10670.181,576
Fergus 4,74672.631,78827.362,95845.276,534
Flathead 37,86163.0622,18036.9415,68126.1260,041
Gallatin 31,82944.6539,45055.35-7,621-10.6971,279
Garfield 73690.98739.0266381.95809
Glacier 1,68729.504,03270.50-2,345-41.005,719
Golden Valley 40580.369919.6430660.71504
Granite 1,36064.7374135.2761929.462,101
Hill 3,74651.863,47748.142693.727,223
Jefferson 5,20663.702,96736.302,23927.408,173
Judith Basin 1,02676.1132223.8970452.221,348
Lake 8,96453.917,66446.091,3007.8216,628
Lewis and Clark 20,55448.3521,95551.65-1,401-3.3042,509
Liberty 78972.5229927.4849045.041,088
Lincoln 8,49072.453,22827.555,26244.9011,718
Madison 4,10367.062,01532.932,08834.136,118
McCone 94684.2417715.7676968.481,123
Meagher 81272.6330627.3750645.261,118
Mineral 1,73568.0181631.9991936.022,551
Missoula 25,52935.5646,26864.44-20,739-28.8871,797
Musselshell 2,34181.3153818.691,80362.632,879
Park 5,84150.325,76649.68750.6511,607
Petroleum 30085.475114.5324970.94351
Phillips 1,89579.6948320.311,41259.382,378
Pondera 1,93364.331,07235.6786128.653,005
Powder River 95784.1718015.8377768.341,137
Powell 2,24070.5393629.471,30441.063,176
Prairie 58678.4516121.5542556.89747
Ravalli 18,70665.479,86834.538,83830.9328,574
Richland 4,66980.631,12219.373,54761.255,791
Roosevelt 1,89146.892,14253.11-251-6.224,033
Rosebud 2,43664.551,33835.451,09829.093,774
Sanders 5,39571.122,19128.883,20442.247,586
Sheridan 1,35667.0066833.0068833.992,024
Silver Bow 6,64135.2812,18364.72-5,542-29.4418,824
Stillwater 4,37076.081,37423.922,99652.165,744
Sweet Grass 1,83474.5862525.421,20949.172,459
Teton 2,54168.561,16531.441,37637.133,706
Toole 1,52871.9759528.0393343.952,123
Treasure 37681.038818.9728862.07464
Valley 2,95369.341,30630.661,64738.674,259
Wheatland 78974.5027025.5051949.011,059
Wibaux 49182.3810517.6238664.76596
Yellowstone 49,27658.5934,83341.4114,44317.1784,109
Totals333,17455.01272,46344.9960,71110.02605,637
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Did not vote, "Don't recall", and Undecided with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
  4. Undecided with 6%
  5. Not yet released
  6. 1 2 Undecided with 5%
  7. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
  8. Standard VI response
  9. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  10. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  11. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  12. Undecided with 4%
  13. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. Geise (G) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  15. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  16. Fredrickson (G) with 4%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  18. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  19. Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  20. Undecided with 10%
  21. Undecided with 9.7%
  22. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
  23. Steve Bullock with 38%; Wilmot Collins with 4%; Cora Neumann with 7%; Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
  24. Jack Ballard with 18%; Wilmot Collins and John Mues with 9%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates.

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References

  1. "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  2. 1 2 Drake, Phil. "Daines, Bullock take party primaries in Montana US Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  3. "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana". Politico. November 19, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  4. 1 2 Nilsen, Ella; Zhou, Li (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  5. "Western States Coronavirus Survey - Montana - Politics and Policy Questions" (PDF). Montana State University - HELPS Lab.
  6. "Trump noticeably absent from key US Senate race in Montana". ABC News. November 1, 2020. Retrieved February 16, 2021.
  7. "Montana U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  8. "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News . September 13, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  9. 1 2 "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race". KPAX. February 23, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  10. 1 2 Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  11. 1 2 Trump, Donald Jr. (November 25, 2019). "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". Missoulian. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  12. 1 2 3 "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State . Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  13. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". Politico.
  14. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
  15. Michels, Holly (July 11, 2019). "Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race". Missoulian.
  16. "Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race". Great Falls Tribune. September 13, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  17. Collins, Wilmot [@CollinsWilmot] (March 9, 2020). "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 via Twitter.
  18. Mike Knoles [@KnolesMichael] (March 9, 2020). "With @GovernorBullock joining the Montana Senate race, I'll be dropping This race is too important to let my ego dictate decisions. @SteveDaines must go, and I will do everything I can to make sure we #FlipTheSenate I'll find another vector. Right now we've got a seat to flip!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 9, 2020 via Twitter.
  19. Neumann, Cora [@CoraforMT] (March 9, 2020). "Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 via Twitter.
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Further reading

Official campaign websites