2006 United States Senate election in Montana

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2006 United States Senate election in Montana
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←  2000 November 7, 2006 2012  →
  Jon Tester, official 110th Congress photo.jpg Conrad Burns official portrait.jpg
Nominee Jon Tester Conrad Burns
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote199,845196,283
Percentage49.16%48.29%
2006 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Tester:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Burns:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Conrad Burns
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Contents

Background

Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for president, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable. [1] A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him. [2] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester. [4] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005. [5] but Morrison's advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls. [6] Later, the race was called a "deadlock," [7] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results

Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jon Tester 65,757 60.77
Democratic John Morrison38,39435.48
Democratic Paul Richards1,6361.51
Democratic Robert Candee1,4711.36
Democratic Kenneth Marcure9400.87
Total votes108,198 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 70,434 72.26
Republican Bob Keenan21,75422.32
Republican Bob Kelleher4,0824.19
Republican Daniel Loyd Neste Huffman1,2031.23
Total votes97,473 100.00

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and a political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum. [9]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. [10] [11] This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party [12] and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, [13] made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized. [14]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor." [15]

Debates

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)
Individuals

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] TossupNovember 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report [19] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics [20] TossupNovember 6, 2006

Polling

SourceDateJon
Tester (D)		Conrad
Burns (R)		Stan
Jones (L)
Mason Dixon [21] May 200526%50%
Rasmussen [22] September 8, 200538%51%
Mason Dixon [21] [ permanent dead link ]December 24, 200535%49%
Rasmussen [23] January 11, 200645%45%
Rasmussen [24] February 13, 200646%46%
Rasmussen [25] March 20, 200646%43%
Rasmussen [26] April 15, 200644%47%
Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) [27] May 2, 200648%42%
Rasmussen [28] May 16, 200648%44%
Mason Dixon [29] May 28, 200645%42%
Lake Research (D) [30] June 20–26, 200643%42%
Rasmussen [31] July 11, 200650%43%
Rasmussen [32] August 10, 200647%47%
Lake Research (D) [33] August 10, 200644%37%
Gallup [34] September 5, 200648%45%
Rasmussen [35] September 13, 200652%43%
Rasmussen [36] September 20, 200650%43%
Mason-Dixon [37] October 1, 200647%40%3%
Reuters/Zogby [38] October 5, 200646%42%
Rasmussen [39] October 11, 200649%42%
Rasmussen [40] October 18, 200648%46%
Montana State University-Billings [41] October 19, 200646%35%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC [42] October 24, 200646%43%
Harstad Strategic (D) [43] October 25, 200648%42%
Rasmussen [44] October 29, 200651%47%
Reuters/Zogby [45] October 31, 200647%46%2%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy [46] November 3, 200647%47%1%
Rasmussen [47] November 3, 200650%46%
USA Today/Gallup [48] November 4, 200650%41%
Rasmussen [49] November 4, 200650%48%
OnPoint Polling and Research [50] November 6, 200649%44%

Results

Tester narrowly defeated Burns on election day by just over 3,000 votes. Libertarian candidate Jones received over 10,000 votes, greater than Tester's margin of victory. Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat. [51]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today . [52] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race. [53]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves. [54] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9 and congratulated Tester on his victory. [55]

2006 United States Senate election in Montana [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jon Tester 199,845 49.16% +1.92%
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent)196,28348.29%−2.27%
Libertarian Stan Jones 10,3772.55%N/A
Total votes406,505 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

County results

Source [57]

Jon Tester
Democratic		 Conrad Burns
Republican		 Stan Jones
Libertarian		MarginTotal
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes
Beaverhead 1,37634.14%2,55263.31%1032.56%1,17629.17%4,031
Big Horn 2,99964.72%1,55133.47%841.81%1,44831.25%4,634
Blaine 1,39051.90%1,22645.78%622.32%1646.12%2,678
Broadwater 82534.93%1,45161.43%863.64%62626.50%2,362
Carbon 2,24745.92%2,51051.30%1362.78%2635.38%4,893
Carter 9814.71%55483.18%142.10%45668.47%666
Cascade 14,94749.37%14,78948.85%5401.78%1580.52%30,276
Chouteau 1,49151.86%1,34546.78%391.36%1465.08%2,875
Custer 1,99142.36%2,58154.91%1282.72%59012.55%4,700
Daniels 42440.77%59457.12%222.12%17016.35%1,040
Dawson 1,59540.31%2,24756.79%1152.91%65216.48%3,957
Deer Lodge 3,21172.63%1,09624.79%1142.58%2,11547.84%4,421
Fallon 34726.31%95172.10%211.59%60445.79%1,319
Fergus 1,98535.25%3,47461.68%1733.07%1,48926.44%5,632
Flathead 13,27640.24%18,51156.10%1,2093.66%5,23515.87%32,996
Gallatin 16,51148.67%16,69349.21%7202.12%1820.54%33,924
Garfield 9816.58%48381.73%101.69%38565.14%591
Glacier 2,74862.37%1,56435.50%942.13%1,18426.87%4,406
Golden Valley 18137.24%29861.32%71.44%11724.07%486
Granite 59439.13%86256.79%624.08%26817.65%1,518
Hill 3,41158.33%2,32039.67%1172.00%1,09118.66%5,848
Jefferson 2,41545.76%2,71551.44%1482.80%3005.68%5,278
Judith Basin 37731.63%78565.86%302.52%40834.23%1,192
Lake 5,61848.81%5,48047.61%4133.59%1381.20%11,511
Lewis and Clark 14,92154.74%11,73443.05%6042.22%3,18711.69%27,259
Liberty 40139.66%59658.95%141.38%19519.29%1,011
Lincoln 2,86039.17%4,10556.23%3364.60%1,24517.05%7,301
Madison 1,22433.68%2,31163.59%992.72%1,08729.91%3,634
McCone 39437.88%62460.00%222.12%23022.12%1,040
Meagher 27232.19%55265.33%212.49%28033.14%845
Mineral 79648.98%77947.94%503.08%171.05%1,625
Missoula 29,32763.92%15,61034.02%9422.05%13,71729.90%45,879
Musselshell 67031.16%1,38264.28%984.56%71233.12%2,150
Park 3,73150.60%3,44146.67%2012.73%2903.93%7,373
Petroleum 7429.43%18067.92%114.15%10640.00%265
Phillips 55928.18%1,36668.85%592.97%80740.68%1,984
Pondera 1,08041.08%1,49456.83%552.09%41415.75%2,629
Powder River 24824.55%73472.67%282.77%48648.12%1,010
Powell 1,05240.48%1,45455.94%933.58%40215.47%2,599
Prairie 21331.09%45566.42%172.48%24235.33%685
Ravalli 7,90642.41%10,27355.11%4622.48%2,36712.70%18,641
Richland 1,35435.22%2,38161.94%1092.84%1,02726.72%3,844
Roosevelt 2,20357.47%1,57341.04%571.49%63016.44%3,833
Rosebud 1,89555.31%1,42532.15%1063.09%47013.72%3,426
Sanders 2,16543.53%2,57551.77%2344.70%4108.24%4,974
Sheridan 98851.43%88746.17%462.39%1015.26%1,921
Silver Bow 9,50066.69%4,39430.85%3512.46%5,10635.84%14,245
Stillwater 1,55639.28%2,26257.11%1433.61%70617.82%3,961
Sweet Grass 56332.39%1,11564.15%603.45%55231.76%1,738
Teton 1,25240.80%1,75557.18%622.02%50316.39%3,069
Toole 75937.52%1,19559.07%693.41%43621.55%2,023
Treasure 16136.93%26059.63%153.44%9922.71%436
Valley 1,55043.90%1,89353.61%882.49%3439,71%3,531
Wheatland 32738.47%49858.59%252.94%17120.12%850
Wibaux 16533.81%31764.96%61.23%15231.15%488
Yellowstone 27,98147.77%29,20349.85%1,3942.38%1,2222.09%58,578

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Welna, David (June 5, 2006). "Montana's Sen. Burns Faces Tough Test This Fall". NPR . Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  2. ↑ "SurveyUSA News Poll #8541". www.surveyusa.com. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  3. ↑ "2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages | RealClearPolitics". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  4. ↑ "BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice". Archived from the original on June 2, 2006. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
  5. ↑ "BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million" . Retrieved April 8, 2023.[ permanent dead link ]
  6. ↑ Horrigan, Marie (May 31, 2006). "MT Senate: Race to Take On Embattled Burns Nears Finish". Archived from the original on August 27, 2006. Retrieved June 7, 2006.
  7. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (May 28, 2006). "Tester, Morrison deadlocked". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  8. 1 2 "2006 Statewide Primary Canvass - June 6, 2006 compiled by Secretary Of State Brad Johnson" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 12, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  9. ↑ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on July 13, 2006. Retrieved July 11, 2006.
  10. ↑ "2000 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2000 Presidential General Election Results - Montana". U.S. Election Atlas . June 1, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  12. ↑ Saad, Lydia (June 28, 2006). "Voters Seem Ready for a Change of Scenery in Congress" (PDF). astrid-online.it. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  13. ↑ Ydstie, John (March 27, 2006). "Sen. Burns Scrutinized for Earmark Tied to Abramoff". NPR . Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters". New West Network. Missoula. Archived from the original on December 26, 2006. Retrieved August 3, 2006.
  15. ↑ McKee, Jennifer (September 1, 2006). "Burns urges Schweitzer to take steps already taken". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Jon Tester (Senate - MT) | WesPAC". November 4, 2006. Archived from the original on November 4, 2006. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  17. ↑ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  18. ↑ "Election Eve 2006: The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  19. ↑ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  21. 1 2 Mason Dixon [ permanent dead link ]
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Archived October 31, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
  23. ↑ Rasmussen
  24. ↑ Rasmussen
  25. ↑ Rasmussen
  26. ↑ Rasmussen
  27. ↑ Ayres McHenry & Associates (R)
  28. ↑ Rasmussen
  29. ↑ Mason Dixon
  30. ↑ Lake Research (D)
  31. ↑ Rasmussen
  32. ↑ Rasmussen
  33. ↑ Lake Research (D)
  34. ↑ Gallup
  35. ↑ Rasmussen
  36. ↑ Rasmussen
  37. ↑ Mason-Dixon [ permanent dead link ]
  38. ↑ Reuters/Zogby
  39. ↑ Rasmussen
  40. ↑ Rasmussen
  41. ↑ Montana State University-Billings Archived October 27, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  42. ↑ Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC
  43. ↑ Harstad Strategic (D)
  44. ↑ Rasmussen Archived November 1, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  45. ↑ Reuters/Zogby
  46. ↑ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  47. ↑ Rasmussen Archived November 14, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ↑ USA Today/Gallup
  49. ↑ Rasmussen
  50. ↑ OnPoint Polling and Research
  51. ↑ "Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race". NPR. November 9, 2006. Retrieved April 1, 2018.[ dead link ]
  52. ↑ "Democrat challenger takes Montana". USA Today. November 8, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  53. ↑ "Democrat wins Montana Senate seat, CNN projects". CNN. Archived from the original on November 8, 2006.
  54. ↑ "13-16-211. Recounts are allowed if bond is posted to cover all costs". Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  55. ↑ "Montana's Burns concedes Senate race". USA Today. November 9, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  56. ↑ 2006 Election Statistics
  57. ↑ "U.S. Senate / Montana / County Results". CNN . Retrieved November 8, 2022.

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