2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Last updated January 17, 2024

The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three of the four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place halfway through the second term of Republican President George W. Bush. The winners served in the 110th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the 2006 elections.

Election ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.

District	CPVI	Incumbent	Previous result	Cook November 6, 2006^[1]	Rothenberg November 6, 2006^[2]	Sabato November 6, 2006^[3]	RCP November 6, 2006^[4]	CQ Politics November 7, 2006^[5]	Winner
Arizona 1	R+2	Rick Renzi (R)	58.6% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Rick Renzi (R)
Arizona 5	R+4	J. D. Hayworth (R)	59.5% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Harry Mitchell (D)
Arizona 8	R+1	Jim Kolbe (R) (retiring)	60.4% R	Lean D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Gabby Giffords (D)
California 4	R+11	John Doolittle (R)	65.4% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	John Doolittle (R)
California 11	R+3	Richard Pombo (R)	61.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Lean R	Jerry McNerney (D)
California 50	R+5	Brian Bilbray (R)	49.3% R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Brian Bilbray (R)
Colorado 3	R+6	John Salazar (D)	50.5% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	John Salazar (D)
Colorado 4	R+9	Marilyn Musgrave (R)	51.0% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Lean R	Marilyn Musgrave (R)
Colorado 5	R+16	Joel Hefley (R) (retiring)	70.6% R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Doug Lamborn (R)
Colorado 6	R+10	Tom Tancredo (R)	59.7% R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Tom Tancredo (R)
Colorado 7	D+2	Bob Beauprez (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	54.7% R	Lean D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 2	D+8	Rob Simmons (R)	54.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Lean R	Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 4	D+5	Chris Shays (R)	52.4% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Chris Shays (R)
Connecticut 5	D+4	Nancy Johnson (R)	59.8% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Chris Murphy (D)
Florida 8	R+3	Ric Keller (R)	60.5% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Ric Keller (R)
Florida 9	R+4	Michael Bilirakis (R)	100% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Gus Bilirakis (R)
Florida 13	R+4	Katherine Harris (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	55.3% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 16	R+2	Vacant^{[lower-alpha 3]}	68.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tim Mahoney (D)
Florida 22	D+4	Clay Shaw (R)	62.9% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Tossup	Ron Klein (D)
Georgia 8	R+8	Jim Marshall (D)	62.9% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Jim Marshall (D)
Georgia 12	D+2	John Barrow (D)	51.8% D	Likely D	Tilt D	Tilt D	Tossup	Lean D	John Barrow (D)
Idaho 1	R+19	Butch Otter (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	69.5% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Lean R	Bill Sali (R)
Illinois 6	R+3	Henry Hyde (R) (retiring)	55.8% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Peter Roskam (R)
Illinois 8	R+5	Melissa Bean (D)	51.7% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Melissa Bean (D)
Illinois 10	D+4	Mark Kirk (R)	64.1% R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Mark Kirk (R)
Illinois 17	D+5	Lane Evans (D) (retiring)	60.7% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Phil Hare (D)
Indiana 2	R+4	Chris Chocola (R)	54.2% R	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Joe Donnelly (D)
Indiana 3	R+16	Mark Souder (R)	69.2% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Mark Souder (R)
Indiana 7	D+9	Julia Carson (D)	54.3% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Julia Carson (D)
Indiana 8	R+9	John Hostettler (R)	53.4% R	Tossup	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Brad Ellsworth (D)
Indiana 9	R+7	Mike Sodrel (R)	49.4% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Baron Hill (D)
Iowa 1	D+5	Jim Nussle (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	55.2% R	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2	D+7	Jim Leach (R)	58.9% R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Dave Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3	D+1	Leonard Boswell (D)	55.2% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Leonard Boswell (D)
Kansas 2	R+7	Jim Ryun (R)	56.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Safe R	Likely R	Nancy Boyda (D)
Kansas 3	R+4	Dennis Moore (D)	54.8% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Dennis Moore (D)
Kentucky 2	R+13	Ron Lewis (R)	67.9% R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Ron Lewis (R)
Kentucky 3	D+2	Anne Northup (R)	60.3% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tossup	Lean R	John Yarmuth (D)
Kentucky 4	R+12	Geoff Davis (R)	54.4% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Lean R	Geoff Davis (R)
Louisiana 2	D+28	William Jefferson (D)	79.0% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	William Jefferson (D)
Louisiana 3	R+5	Charlie Melançon (D)	50.2% D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Charlie Melançon (D)
Louisiana 7	R+7	Charles Boustany (R)	55.0% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Charles Boustany (R)
Maryland 3	D+7	Ben Cardin (D) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	63.4% D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	John Sarbanes (D)
Maryland 6	R+13	Roscoe Bartlett (R)	67.5% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Michigan 7	R+2	Joe Schwarz (R) (lost renomination)	58.4% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8	R+2	Mike Rogers (R)	61.1% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Mike Rogers (R)
Minnesota 1	R+1	Gil Gutknecht (R)	59.6% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 2	R+3	John Kline (R)	56.4% R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	John Kline (R)
Minnesota 6	R+5	Mark Kennedy (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	54.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Michele Bachmann (R)
Nebraska 1	R+11	Jeff Fortenberry (R)	54.2% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Jeff Fortenberry (R)
Nebraska 3	R+24	Tom Osborne (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	87.5% R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Safe R	Lean R	Adrian Smith (R)
Nevada 2	R+8	Jim Gibbons (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	66.5% R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Dean Heller (R)
Nevada 3	D+1	Jon Porter (R)	54.5% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Jon Porter (R)
New Hampshire 1	Even	Jeb Bradley (R)	63.4% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Carol Shea-Porter (D)
New Hampshire 2	D+3	Charles Bass (R)	58.3% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Paul Hodes (D)
New Jersey 5	R+4	Scott Garrett (R)	57.6% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Scott Garrett (R)
New Jersey 7	R+1	Mike Ferguson (R)	56.9% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Mike Ferguson (R)
New Mexico 1	D+2	Heather Wilson (R)	54.4% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Heather Wilson (R)
New York 3	D+2	Peter King (R)	63.0% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Peter King (R)
New York 13	D+1	Vito Fossella (R)	59.0% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Vito Fossella (R)
New York 19	R+1	Sue Kelly (R)	66.7% R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	John Hall (D)
New York 20	R+3	John E. Sweeney (R)	65.8% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
New York 24	R+1	Sherwood Boehlert (R) (retiring)	56.9% R	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Mike Arcuri (D)
New York 25	D+3	James T. Walsh (R)	90.4% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	James T. Walsh (R)
New York 26	R+3	Thomas M. Reynolds (R)	55.6% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean D (flip)	Thomas M. Reynolds (R)
New York 29	R+5	Randy Kuhl (R)	50.7% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Randy Kuhl (R)
North Carolina 8	R+3	Robin Hayes (R)	55.5% R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Robin Hayes (R)
North Carolina 11	R+7	Charles Taylor (R)	54.9% R	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Heath Shuler (D)
North Carolina 13	D+2	Brad Miller (D)	58.8% D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Brad Miller (D)
Ohio 1	R+1	Steve Chabot (R)	59.8% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Steve Chabot (R)
Ohio 2	R+13	Jean Schmidt (R)	51.6% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Jean Schmidt (R)
Ohio 6	Even	Ted Strickland (D) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	100.0% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Charlie Wilson (D)
Ohio 12	R+1	Pat Tiberi (R)	62.0% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Pat Tiberi (R)
Ohio 13	D+6	Sherrod Brown (D) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	67.4% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Betty Sutton (D)
Ohio 15	R+1	Deborah Pryce (R)	60.0% R	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Deborah Pryce (R)
Ohio 18	R+6	Vacant^{[lower-alpha 4]}	66.2% R	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Zack Space (D)
Oregon 5	D+1	Darlene Hooley (D)	52.9% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Darlene Hooley (D)
Pennsylvania 4	R+3	Melissa Hart (R)	63.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Jason Altmire (D)
Pennsylvania 6	D+2	Jim Gerlach (R)	51.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7	D+4	Curt Weldon (R)	58.8% R	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Joe Sestak (D)
Pennsylvania 8	D+3	Mike Fitzpatrick (R)	55.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Patrick Murphy (D)
Pennsylvania 10	R+8	Don Sherwood (R)	92.8% R	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Chris Carney (D)
South Carolina 5	R+6	John Spratt (D)	63.1% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	John Spratt (D)
Texas 17	R+18	Chet Edwards (D)	51.2% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Chet Edwards (D)
Texas 22	R+15	Vacant^{[lower-alpha 5]}	55.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Nick Lampson (D)
Texas 23	R+4	Henry Bonilla (R)	69.3% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Ciro Rodriguez (D)
Utah 2	R+17	Jim Matheson (D)	54.8% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Jim Matheson (D)
Vermont at-large	D+8	Bernie Sanders (I) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 2]}	67.4% I	Lean D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Peter Welch (D)
Virginia 2	R+6	Thelma Drake (R)	55.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Thelma Drake (R)
Virginia 11	R+5	Frank Wolf (R)	63.7% R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Frank Wolf (R)
Washington 2	D+3	Rick Larsen (D)	54.8% D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Rick Larsen (D)
Washington 5	R+7	Cathy McMorris (R)	59.7% R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Cathy McMorris (R)
Washington 8	D+2	Dave Reichert (R)	51.5% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Dave Reichert (R)
West Virginia 1	R+6	Alan Mollohan (D)	67.8% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Alan Mollohan (D)
West Virginia 2	R+5	Shelley Moore Capito (R)	57.5% R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wisconsin 8	Even	Mark Green (R) (retiring)^{[lower-alpha 1]}	70.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Steve Kagen (D)
Wyoming at-large	R+19	Barbara Cubin (R)	55.3% R	Tossup	Likely R	Tilt R	Safe R	Tossup	Barbara Cubin (R)
Overall				D - 207 R - 189 39 tossups	D - 220 R - 196 19 tossups	D - 233 R - 202	D - 214 R - 205 16 tossups	D - 213 R - 199 23 tossups	D - 233 R - 202

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Retired to run for Governor
1 2 3 4 5 Retired to run for senate
↑ Incumbent Mark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
↑ Incumbent Bob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
↑ Incumbent Tom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term.

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References

↑ "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
↑ "2006 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
↑ "2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
↑ "Battle for the House of Representatives". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on November 9, 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
↑ "Balance of Power Scorecard: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 17, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.

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[Governor-6] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Retired to run for Governor

[Senate-7] 1 2 3 4 5 Retired to run for senate

[Foley-8] Incumbent Mark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.

[Ney-9] Incumbent Bob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.

[DeLay-10] Incumbent Tom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term.

[Cook-1] "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved November 20, 2023.

[Rothenberg-2] "2006 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.

[Sabato-3] "2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.

[4] "Battle for the House of Representatives". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on November 9, 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2023.

[CQ_Politics-5] "Balance of Power Scorecard: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 17, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.

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v t e (2005 ←) 2006 United States elections (→ 2007)
U.S. Senate	Arizona California Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia (shadow) Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska Arizona 8th Arkansas California 50th sp Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia delegate shadow Florida Georgia 4th Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota 5th 6th Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio 2nd Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 22nd and 22nd sp Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Governors	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Lt. Gov Colorado Connecticut District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Iowa Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Lt. Gov Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Vermont Wisconsin Wyoming
State Attorneys General	California Florida Maryland Michigan Minnesota New York
State officials	California Insurance Commissioner Secretary of State Controller Treasurer Superintendent of Public Instruction Florida Chief Financial Officer Commissioner of Agriculture Maryland Comptroller Michigan Secretary of State Minnesota Auditor New York Comptroller
State legislatures	Arizona California Assembly Senate Connecticut Senate Delaware House Senate Iowa House Senate Maryland House Senate Massachusetts House Senate Michigan House Senate Minnesota House Senate Montana House New Mexico House North Carolina House Senate Pennsylvania House Senate Texas House Senate
Mayors	Anaheim, CA Anchorage, AK Austin, TX Chandler, AZ Fort Lauderdale, FL Irvine, CA Long Beach, CA Newark, NJ New Orleans, LA Richmond, CA San Bernardino, CA San Jose, CA Norfolk, VA Oakland, CA Providence, RI Santa Ana, CA Tallahassee, FL Tulsa, OK Washington, DC
States	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Contents

Election ratings

Notes

Related Research Articles

References