2006 United States Senate election in Ohio

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2006 United States Senate election in Ohio
Flag of Ohio.svg
←  2000 November 7, 2006 2012  →
Turnout53.25% (registered voters)
  Sherrod Brown, official Senate photo portrait, 2007.jpg Mike DeWine official photo.jpg
Nominee Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,257,3691,761,037
Percentage56.16%43.82%
2006 United States Senate election in Ohio results map by county.svg
2006 United States Senate election in Ohio by Congressional District.svg
Brown:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
DeWine:      50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Mike DeWine
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

The 2006 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Mike DeWine ran for re-election, but was defeated by Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown. [1] As of 2024, this is the most recent time a Democratic Senate candidate in Ohio won a race by double digits.

Contents

To date, this is Mike DeWine's only general election loss of his political career. Following his defeat, DeWine would later serve as Ohio's State Attorney General from 2011 to 2019 and has been the state's Governor since 2019.

Background

The incumbent Republican Senator R. Michael DeWine had approval ratings at 38%, [2] making him the second most unpopular U.S. Senator behind Pennsylvania Republican Rick Santorum, who was also up for reelection in 2006. Pre-election stories in the U.S. media suggested that the national Republican Party may have given up on saving Senator DeWine's Senate seat before election day.[ citation needed ] Sherrod Brown, former Ohio Secretary of State and U.S. Representative from Ohio's 13th district, easily won the Democratic nomination over Merrill Keiser Jr.

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

Both candidates campaigned as conservative alternatives to DeWine, citing DeWine's support for gun control measures and his role as one of the Republican members of the Gang of 14 which was a group of Republicans who compromised with Democrats in a dispute about judicial appointments.

Results

Republican primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike DeWine (incumbent) 555,962 71.82%
Republican David Smith112,42714.52%
Republican William Pierce105,73413.66%
Total votes774,123 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sherrod Brown 583,776 78.11%
Democratic Merrill Keiser Jr. 163,62821.89%
Total votes747,404 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The Republican Party, which was facing multiple challenges to their Senate majority, was initially determined to assist DeWine in his competitive race while the National Democratic party supported Brown in hopes of taking control of the Senate. John McClelland, a spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party said, "It's vitally important to the Republican Party as a whole, so I think that's why you see the president coming to Ohio to support Mike DeWine." Phil Singer, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said, "Mike DeWine Senior is in for the fight of his life, make no mistake about it." [4]

On July 14, 2006, DeWine's campaign began airing TV commercials depicting a smoking World Trade Center. "The senator was notified... by a reporter at U.S. News & World Report that the image of the burning Twin Towers could not have depicted the actual event because the smoke was blowing the wrong way." [5] [6] DeWine's campaign admitted that the video was actually a still photo of the World Trade Center with smoke digitally added. [5] He also was criticized for using an emotionally charged image to attack his challenger. [6]

Another of DeWine's ads suggested that opponent Sherrod Brown didn't pay his taxes for thirteen years. This claim led to the Associated Press reporting on October 19 that, "Several Ohio television stations have stopped airing a Republican ad because state documents contradict the ad's accusation that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown didn't pay an unemployment tax bill for 13 years." Brown produced a commercial citing these facts. [7] DeWine's ads were changed to state only that he had failed to pay his unemployment taxes until legal action was taken against him.

On October 16, 2006, The New York Times reported that top national Republicans were moving resources away from the Ohio Senate race, as they had determined that DeWine was likely to lose and were seeking to spend money on races where Republican candidates were seen as having a better chance of winning. [8]

Debates

Fundraising

During the election cycle, DeWine raised $14.9 million and spent $15.5 million. [9] Brown raised $8.9 million and spent $10.8 million. [10]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [11] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] Likely D (flip)November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report [13] Likely D (flip)November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics [14] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2006

Polling

SourceDateSherrod
Brown (D)		Mike
DeWine (R)
Zogby [15] October 31, 200540%37%
Rasmussen [16] December 2, 200541%43%
Rasmussen [17] January 7, 200640%45%
Rasmussen [18] February 18, 200637%46%
Rasmussen [19] March 31, 200642%45%
Zogby/WSJ [20] March 31, 200646%37%
Rasmussen [21] April 24, 200641%43%
Mason-Dixon [22] April 26, 200636%47%
Rasmussen [23] May 15, 200644%41%
University of Cincinnati [24] May 25, 200642%52%
Survey USA [25] June 13, 200648%39%
Zogby/WSJ [20] June 21, 200647%34%
Rasmussen [26] June 27, 200639%46%
Columbus Dispatch [27] July 23, 200645%37%
Zogby/WSJ [20] July 24, 200645%37%
Rasmussen [28] August 1, 200644%42%
SurveyUSA [29] August 5, 200649%41%
Rasmussen [30] August 26, 200645%42%
Zogby/WSJ [31] August 28, 200647%39%
Gallup [32] September 5, 200646%40%
Zogby/WSJ [31] September 11, 200645%41%
Rasmussen [33] September 13, 200647%41%
Quinnipiac [34] September 20, 200645%44%
University of Cincinnati [35] September 20, 200651%47%
SurveyUSA [36] September 21, 200652%42%
Columbus Dispatch [37] September 24, 200647%42%
Zogby/WSJ [31] September 28, 200645%41%
University of Akron [38] September 29, 200642%42%
Mason-Dixon [39] October 1, 200645%43%
Reuters/Zogby [40] October 5, 200641%41%
Rasmussen [41] October 5, 200649%41%
SurveyUSA [42] October 12, 200654%40%
Rasmussen [43] October 13, 200648%42%
Quinnipiac [44] October 17, 200653%41%
University of Cincinnati [45] October 17, 200652%45%
CBS News/New York Times [46] October 17, 200649%35%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC [47] October 24, 200648%40%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg [48] October 24, 200647%39%
Rasmussen [49] October 26, 200653%41%
SurveyUSA [50] October 26, 200657%37%
Opinion Consultants [51] October 22–30, 200651%44%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation [52] October 31, 200654%43%
Reuters/Zogby International [53] November 2, 200656%42%
Rasmussen [54] November 4, 200654%43%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy [55] November 5, 200650%44%
Columbus Dispatch [56] November 5, 200662%38%
University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll [57] November 6, 200656%44%
SurveyUSA [58] November 6, 200654%42%

Results

Brown was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Ohio at 7:30. DeWine had the second worst performance of a Republican incumbent in 2006; only Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum had a worse performance. While DeWine was able to win rural counties in western Ohio, Brown managed to win most eastern Ohio counties, especially in heavily populated areas. DeWine's narrow 2,000 vote victory in Hamilton County which is home to Cincinnati, came nowhere close to making a dent in Brown's lead. Brown would go on to be reelected to a second term in 2012, and a third term in 2018. Also in 2018, both Brown and DeWine were on the ballot but this time for different races; DeWine would be elected Governor of Ohio.

2006 United States Senate election in Ohio
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Sherrod Brown 2,257,369 56.16% +20.0
Republican Mike DeWine (incumbent)1,761,03743.82%−15.8
Independent Richard Duncan8300.02%N/A
Total votes4,019,236 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

CountySherrod Brown
Democratic		Mike DeWine
Republican		Richard Duncan
Independent		MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Adams 3,90345.54%4,66754.46%00.00%-764-8.92%8,570
Allen 16,59745.95%19,52154.04%50.01%-2,924-8.09%36,123
Ashland 8,89046.31%10,29953.65%90.04%-1,409-7.34%19,198
Ashtabula 21,15161.79%13,07838.21%10.00%8,07323.58%34,230
Athens 13,98870.55%5,83929.45%00.00%8,14941.10%19,827
Auglaize 6,84540.28%10,14259.68%80.04%-3,297-19.40%16,995
Belmont 15,49065.76%8,05634.20%100.04%7,43431.56%23,556
Brown 6,85048.57%7,24751.38%70.05%-397-2.81%14,104
Butler 49,44342.88%65,85457.11%50.01%-16,411-14.23%115,302
Carroll 6,14355.58%4,90844.40%20.02%1,23511.18%11,053
Champaign 6,80947.26%7,59852.73%20.01%-789-5.47%14,409
Clark 26,40052.73%23,65647.25%60.02%2,7445.48%50,062
Clermont 25,33339.00%39,58860.95%340.05%-14,255-21.95%64,955
Clinton 5,00539.43%7,68760.56%10.01%-2,682-21.13%12,693
Columbiana 21,80259.20%15,02540.80%20.00%6,77718.40%36,829
Coshocton 7,02452.55%6,34047.43%20.02%6845.12%13,366
Crawford 8,22749.31%8,45550.68%10.01%-228-1.37%16,683
Cuyahoga 319,56870.57%133,23529.42%290.01%186,33341.15%452,832
Darke 8,26740.95%11,91159.00%90.05%-3,644-18.05%20,187
Defiance 6,62448.68%6,97751.28%60.04%-353-2.60%13,607
Delaware 27,10941.87%37,62458.11%170.02%-10,515-16.24%64,750
Erie 19,37263.74%11,01836.25%10.01%8,35427.49%30,391
Fairfield 25,28346.99%28,50652.98%120.03%-3,223-5.99%53,801
Fayette 3,79344.91%4,65155.07%20.02%-858-10.16%8,446
Franklin 217,96158.57%154,09841.41%510.02%63,86317.16%372,110
Fulton 7,93649.53%8,07950.43%60.04%-143-0.90%16,021
Gallia 4,80347.75%5,25552.25%00.00%-452-4.50%10,058
Geauga 19,90350.29%19,65349.66%170.05%2500.63%39,573
Greene 24,41541.18%34,79758.69%760.13%-10,382-17.51%59,288
Guernsey 7,33455.40%5,90544.60%00.00%1,42910.80%13,239
Hamilton 142,13449.63%144,16750.34%960.03%-2,033-0.71%286,397
Hancock 10,49840.97%15,12159.02%30.01%-4,623-18.05%25,622
Hardin 4,77949.86%4,80350.11%20.03%-24-0.25%9,584
Harrison 3,53059.02%2,45040.96%10.02%1,08018.06%5,981
Henry 5,35447.12%6,00752.86%20.02%-653-5.74%11,363
Highland 5,67443.71%7,29756.21%100.08%-1,623-12.50%12,981
Hocking 5,66458.22%4,06241.75%30.03%1,60216.47%9,729
Holmes 2,81034.89%5,24165.07%40.04%-2,431-30.18%8,055
Huron 10,23454.06%8,69445.93%20.01%1,5408.13%18,930
Jackson 5,45353.00%4,83346.98%20.02%6206.02%10,288
Jefferson 15,67361.08%9,98838.92%00.00%5,68522.16%25,661
Knox 9,64146.62%11,03653.37%10.01%-1,395-6.75%20,678
Lake 50,64957.13%37,98842.85%150.02%12,66114.28%88,652
Lawrence 10,56154.22%8,91645.78%00.00%1,6458.44%19,477
Licking 28,59948.54%30,31251.44%120.02%-1,713-2.90%58,923
Logan 6,90942.62%9,29757.35%40.03%-2,388-14.73%16,210
Lorain 67,42966.39%34,12933.60%50.01%33,30032.79%101,563
Lucas 94,63066.50%47,65933.49%150.01%46,97133.01%142,304
Madison 6,41447.41%7,11052.55%50.04%-696-5.14%13,529
Mahoning 69,66473.47%25,15126.53%00.00%44,51346.94%94,815
Marion 11,07851.28%10,52648.72%00.00%5522.56%21,604
Medina 36,38655.48%29,18644.50%110.02%7,20010.98%65,583
Meigs 3,99051.42%3,76948.58%00.00%2212.84%7,759
Mercer 5,41334.85%10,11865.14%10.01%-4,705-30.29%15,532
Miami 15,73442.48%21,29957.50%60.02%-5,565-15.02%37,039
Monroe 4,13168.09%1,93531.89%10.02%2,19636.20%6,067
Montgomery 100,49153.22%88,32246.77%230.01%12,1696.45%188,836
Morgan 2,95553.88%2,52346.01%60.11%4327.87%5,484
Morrow 5,97647.88%6,49952.07%60.05%-523-4.19%12,481
Muskingum 15,66455.55%12,53444.45%20.00%3,13011.10%28,200
Noble 2,61150.50%2,55949.50%00.00%521.00%5,170
Ottawa 10,54860.20%6,97239.79%10.01%3,57620.41%17,521
Paulding 3,55647.21%3,97652.78%10.01%-420-5.57%7,533
Perry 6,62759.23%4,55540.71%70.06%2,07218.52%11,189
Pickaway 8,85849.44%9,05950.56%00.00%-201-1.12%17,917
Pike 5,84560.60%3,79839.38%20.02%2,04721.22%9,645
Portage 34,57663.23%20,07536.71%340.06%14,50126.52%54,685
Preble 7,22145.98%8,43653.72%460.30%-1,215-7.74%15,703
Putnam 5,60039.60%8,53960.38%20.02%-2,939-20.78%14,141
Richland 24,43153.24%21,45146.75%70.01%2,9806.49%45,889
Ross 13,06155.42%10,50144.56%40.02%2,56010.86%23,566
Sandusky 12,89956.37%9,98343.63%00.00%2,91612.74%22,882
Scioto 15,86660.62%10,30839.38%00.00%5,55821.24%26,174
Seneca 10,74253.48%9,34346.51%10.01%1,3996.97%20,086
Shelby 7,12241.34%10,10158.64%30.02%-2,979-17.30%17,226
Stark 79,90057.37%59,35342.62%110.01%20,54714.75%139,264
Summit 126,77663.57%72,55936.39%810.04%54,21727.18%199,416
Trumbull 58,58673.12%21,52026.86%180.02%37,06646.26%80,124
Tuscarawas 17,36055.31%14,02444.68%10.01%3,33610.63%31,385
Union 6,88140.85%9,95059.07%120.08%-3,069-18.22%16,843
Van Wert 4,17740.09%6,23959.88%40.03%-2,062-19.79%10,420
Vinton 2,48455.38%2,00144.62%00.00%48310.76%4,485
Warren 25,10236.54%43,58863.45%80.01%-18,486-26.91%68,698
Washington 11,63151.08%11,14048.92%00.00%4912.16%22,771
Wayne 18,29947.79%19,98552.19%90.02%-1,686-4.40%38,293
Williams 6,43849.57%6,54350.38%70.05%-105-0.81%12,988
Wood 25,87556.85%19,63743.14%30.01%6,23813.71%45,515
Wyandot 3,91248.17%4,20151.72%90.11%-289-3.55%8,122
Totals2,257,36956.16%1,761,03743.82%8300.02%496,33212.34%4,019,236

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Sherrod Brown won 14 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st, 5th, 7th, 12th, 14th, 15th, and 16th districts, which elected Republicans to the House. [59]

DistrictBrownDeWineRepresentative
1st 51.8%48.2% Steve Chabot
2nd 43.2%56.8%
Jean Schmidt
3rd 49.5%50.5% Mike Turner
4th 46.8%53.2% Mike Oxley (109th Congress)
Jim Jordan (110th Congress)
5th 50.9%49.1% Paul Gillmor
6th 60.0%40.0% Ted Strickland (109th Congress)
Charlie Wilson (110th Congress)
7th 51.4%48.6% Dave Hobson
8th 42.0%56.0% John Boehner
9th 65.7%34.3% Marcy Kaptur
10th 65.5%34.5% Dennis Kucinich
11th 82.2%17.8% Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th 52.5%47.5% Pat Tiberi
13th 63.9%36.1% Sherrod Brown (109th Congress)
Betty Sutton (110th Congress)
14th 56.2%43.8% Steve LaTourette
15th 55.0%45.0% Deborah Pryce
16th 54.3%45.7% Ralph Regula
17th 72.4%27.6% Tim Ryan
18th 53.9%46.1% Bob Ney (109th Congress)
Zack Space (110th Congress)

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References

  1. ↑ "Democrats Score First Senate Win". CBS News. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on May 24, 2011. Retrieved November 8, 2006.
  2. ↑ "www.surveyusa.com". Archived from the original on December 1, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2006.
  3. ↑ "2006 Election Results". June 13, 2006. Archived from the original on June 13, 2006. Retrieved February 17, 2021.
  4. ↑ Collins, Michael (February 23, 2006). "Bush visit all politics this time". The Kentucky Post . Covington, Kentucky: E. W. Scripps Company. Archived from the original on August 28, 2006.
  5. 1 2 Nation & World: DeWine blunder adds fuel to controversial September 11 ad - U.S. News & World Report Archived October 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  6. 1 2 "Washington Post".[ dead link ]
  7. ↑ "Sherrod Brown". Archived from the original on March 6, 2008. Retrieved March 14, 2010.
  8. ↑ Adam Nagourney, "In Final Weeks, G.O.P. Focuses on Best Bets", The New York Times, October 16, 2006.
  9. ↑ "Sen. Mike DeWine: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary - Senator 2006 | OpenSecrets". www.opensecrets.org. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Rep. Sherrod Brown: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary - Representative 2006 | OpenSecrets". www.opensecrets.org. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  11. ↑ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  12. ↑ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  13. ↑ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  15. ↑ Zogby
  16. ↑ Rasmussen
  17. ↑ Rasmussen
  18. ↑ Rasmussen
  19. ↑ Rasmussen
  20. 1 2 3 Zogby/WSJ
  21. ↑ Rasmussen
  22. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  23. ↑ Rasmussen
  24. ↑ University of Cincinnati
  25. ↑ Survey USA
  26. ↑ Rasmussen
  27. ↑ Columbus Dispatch
  28. ↑ Rasmussen
  29. ↑ SurveyUSA
  30. ↑ Rasmussen
  31. 1 2 3 Zogby/WSJ
  32. ↑ Gallup
  33. ↑ Rasmussen
  34. ↑ Quinnipiac
  35. ↑ University of Cincinnati
  36. ↑ SurveyUSA
  37. ↑ Columbus Dispatch
  38. ↑ University of Akron
  39. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  40. ↑ Reuters/Zogby
  41. ↑ Rasmussen
  42. ↑ SurveyUSA
  43. ↑ Rasmussen
  44. ↑ Quinnipiac
  45. ↑ University of Cincinnati
  46. ↑ CBS News/New York Times
  47. ↑ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC
  48. ↑ Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
  49. ↑ Rasmussen
  50. ↑ SurveyUSA
  51. ↑ Opinion Consultants
  52. ↑ CNN/Opinion Research Corporation
  53. ↑ Reuters/Zogby International
  54. ↑ Rasmussen
  55. ↑ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  56. ↑ Columbus Dispatch
  57. ↑ University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll
  58. ↑ SurveyUSA
  59. ↑ "Twitter".
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