2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
Flag of Ohio.svg
←  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  →
Turnout51.5% Decrease2.svg 16.9pp
  Senator Vance official portrait. 118th Congress (cropped 2).jpg Tim Ryan portrait (3x4 cropped).jpg
Nominee J. D. Vance Tim Ryan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote2,192,1141,939,489
Percentage53.04%46.92%
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio results map by county.svg
2022 Ohio United States Senate election by Congressional District.svg
OH SEN 2022.svg
Vance:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ryan:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%
U.S. senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

J. D. Vance
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist J. D. Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman. [1]

Contents

Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans. [2] [3] Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020. However, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district. Overall however, this election marked the worst Republican performance in the Class III seat since 1968 in which the Republicans won the seat, and the best Democratic performance since 1998. It is also the closest election since 1992.

Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win. [4]

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads. [5] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows. [6] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator J. D. Vance, who had criticized him in the past. [7] [8]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time. [9] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. [10] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign. [11]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
U.S. Governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
J. D. Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed J. D. Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Jane
Timken		J. D.
Vance		Other
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics April 28 – May 1, 2022May 2, 202221.5%15.0%22.5%7.0%26.0%8.0%Vance +3.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Jane
Timken		Mike
Turner		J. D.
Vance		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 29 – May 1, 20221,081 (LV)± 3.0%22%13%21%–6%–26%4% [lower-alpha 3] 9%
Emerson College April 28–29, 2022885 (LV)± 3.2%18%14%22%–7%–24%4% [lower-alpha 4] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 25–26, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%12%12%19%–8%–31%0%17%
Blueprint Polling (D) April 21–24, 2022634 (LV)± 3.9%18%13%12%–7%–17%–33%
Fox News April 20–24, 2022906 (LV)± 3.0%11%13%18%–6%–23%2% [lower-alpha 5] 25%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 18–19, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%13%18%–11%–25%<1%23%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 13–14, 20221,078 (LV)± 3.0%12%14%28%–8%–23%3% [lower-alpha 6] 13%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] April 11–12, 2022884 (LV)± 3.3%15%17%23%–12%–10%3%20%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] April 3–4, 20222,500 (LV)± 2.0%13%20%16%–15%–10%–26%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] March 30–31, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%18%18%–9%–18%–29%
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)–5%21%22%–6%–10%4%34%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022918 (LV)± 3.0%7%22%20%–9%–11%3% [lower-alpha 7] 24%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%6%22%15%–6%–8%4% [lower-alpha 8] 39%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] February 23–24, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%8%18%14%–12%–14%–34%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] February 8–10, 2022609 (LV)± 4.0%6%23%11%–8%–9%–44%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 8–10, 20221,085 (LV)± 3.0%10%16%21%–10%–14%3%25%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022613 (LV)± 4.0%7%20%18%–6%–5%10% [lower-alpha 9] 34%
February 3, 2022Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 2] January 30 – February 1, 2022514 (LV)± 4.4%5%17%28%6%9%–13%–22%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 28–30, 2022929 (LV)± 3.2%3%16%13%6%8%–10%–45%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] January 18–20, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%3%14%15%11%13%–9%1%34%
KAConsulting LLC (R) [upper-alpha 5] January 11–13, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%3%10%20%10%18%–10%–24%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] January 5–6, 2022513 (LV)± 4.4%4%14%26%7%15%–10%8%16%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] January 3, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%14%18%9%16%–8%–31%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 12–15, 20211,053 (LV)± 3.0%5%12%21%2%10%–15%–34%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] November 29, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%13%21%3%17%–10%–32%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] November 21–23, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%18%2%10%6%10%–45%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 17–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%3%6%19%1%4%7%16%–43%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] September 2021– (LV)–6%12%22%3%11%–9%–37%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 20–23, 2021510 (LV)± 4.3%3%8%37%1%6%–13%6%26%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 6–7, 2021980 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%34%2%11%–16%–30%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 17–19, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%4%19%1%5%5%13%–51%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] July 27–29, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%3%3%40%1%8%–12%13%20%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] July 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%1%2%21%2%7%7%12%–48%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 15–17, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%2%22%1%8%6%4%–55%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%35%2%16%–6%–34%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] May 26, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%24%1%19%8%4%–35%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] April 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–1%23%1%14%7%4%–37%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%–2%25%2%8%7%6%–51%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] March 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–2%28%–11%7%2%–37%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] February 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–2%20%–5%8%––50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Steve
Stivers		Jane
Timken		Undecided
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%–45%––22%33%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 7] February 1–3, 2021509 (LV)± 4.4%3%38%2%11%6%39%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Vance 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% Mandel 20-30% 30-40% Dolan 30-40% 40-50% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Ohio results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Republican primary results [23] [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican J. D. Vance 344,736 32.22%
Republican Josh Mandel 255,85423.92%
Republican Matt Dolan 249,23923.30%
Republican Mike Gibbons124,65311.65%
Republican Jane Timken 62,7795.87%
Republican Mark Pukita22,6922.12%
Republican Neil Patel9,8730.92%
Total votes1,069,826 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus MGH2022Headshot.png
Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified

  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District [103] [23]
  • Rick Taylor [104] [23]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services [23] [14]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Morgan
Harper		Traci
Johnson		Tim
Ryan		OtherUndecided
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)–18%–43%4%37%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022313 (LV)± 5.5%4%9%31%5% [lower-alpha 10] 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Amy
Acton		Tim
Ryan		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 15–16, 2021787 (LV)± 3.5%37%32%31%

Results

Results by county: Ryan 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% Ohio U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2022.svg
Results by county:
  Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [23] [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tim Ryan 359,941 69.55%
Democratic Morgan Harper 92,34717.84%
Democratic Traci Johnson65,20912.60%
Total votes517,497 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (write-in) [144]
  • John Cheng (write-in) [145]
  • Matthew R. Esh (write-in) [145]
  • Shane Hoffman (write-in) [145]
  • Lashondra Tinsley (write-in) [145]

Disqualified

General election

Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be “lean Republican”. In the end, J. D. Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [149] Lean ROctober 4, 2022
Inside Elections [150] Lean ROctober 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [151] Lean RAugust 31, 2022
Politico [152] Lean RSeptember 5, 2022
RCP [153] Lean RSeptember 20, 2022
Fox News [154] Lean RSeptember 20, 2022
DDHQ [155] Likely RNovember 5, 2022
538 [156] Likely ROctober 7, 2022
The Economist [157] Likely RNovember 5, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Ohio debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
J. D. Vance Tim Ryan
1Oct. 10, 2022 Fox 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey		 Youtube PP
2Oct. 17, 2022 21 WFMJ Lindsay McCoy
Bertram de Souza
Derek Steyer		 Youtube PP

Endorsements

J. D. Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		J. D.
Vance (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		Undecided
[lower-alpha 11] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 30 – November 5, 2022November 7, 202251.8%43.8%4.4%Vance +8.0
FiveThirtyEight October 17 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202250.9%44.7%4.4%Vance +6.2
270towin November 4 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202252.0%44.2%3.8%Vance +7.8
Average51.6%44.2%4.2%Vance +7.4
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		J. D.
Vance (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
Civiqs November 4–7, 2022716 (LV)± 4.1%51%46%2% [lower-alpha 12] 2%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%52%44%–4%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022505 (LV)± 4.3%52%45%3% [lower-alpha 13] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 20221,123 (LV)± 2.9%54%44%–3%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–5, 20221,413 (LV)± 3.0%55%45%––
Cygnal (R) November 1–3, 20221,498 (LV)± 2.5%49%43%–8%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 20221,125 (LV)± 2.8%48%43%–9%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%43%2% [lower-alpha 14] 4%
53%44%3% [lower-alpha 15] –
Cygnal (R) October 29 – November 1, 20221,520 (LV)± 2.5%49%44%–7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–30, 20221,510 (LV)± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Cygnal (R) October 24–28, 20221,776 (LV)± 2.3%48%43%–9%
Cygnal (R) October 22–26, 20221,817 (LV)± 2.3%49%44%–8%
Cygnal (R) October 20–24, 20221,886 (LV)± 2.3%48%44%–8%
Baldwin Wallace University October 20–23, 20221,068 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%–4%
Cygnal (R) October 18–22, 20221,547 (LV)± 2.5%47%43%–10%
Marist College October 17–20, 20221,141 (RV)± 3.9%46%45%1% [lower-alpha 16] 8%
942 (LV)± 4.3%47%47%1% [lower-alpha 17] 5%
Cygnal (R) October 16–20, 20221,540 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%–9%
Siena College October 14–19, 2022644 (LV)± 5.1%46%46%3% [lower-alpha 18] 6%
Cygnal (R) October 14–18, 20221,438 (LV)± 2.6%47%43%–10%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid October 11–15, 2022668 (LV)± 3.8%41%43%1% [lower-alpha 19] 15%
Suffolk University October 11–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%1% [lower-alpha 20] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 10–12, 20221,081 (LV)± 2.9%47%44%–9%
Data for Progress (D) October 7–12, 20221,016 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%–5%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 9] October 6–8, 2022640 (LV)–46%44%–9%
Emerson College October 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%45%1% [lower-alpha 21] 9%
Kurt Jetta (D) [upper-alpha 10] October 2–3, 2022950 (RV)± 3.5%35%43%–22%
528 (LV)38%49%–14%
Siena College September 18–22, 2022642 (LV)± 4.4%43%46%2% [lower-alpha 22] 9%
Baldwin Wallace University September 12–15, 2022855 (LV)± 4.1%45%48%–7%
Marist College September 12–15, 20221,200 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%–9%
1,009 (LV)± 3.9%48%47%–5%
Emerson College September 10–13, 20221000 (LV)± 3.0%44%40%3%13%
Civiqs September 10–13, 2022780 (LV)± 4%48%45%3%4%
Fallon Research September 6–11, 2022600 (RV)± 4.3%43%46%1%10%
Suffolk University September 5–7, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%46%47%1%6%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022831 (LV)± 4.3%39%45%–15%
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 11] August 17–23, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 16–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%–6%
Emerson College August 15–16, 2022925 (LV)± 3.2%45%42%4%10%
Kurt Jetta (D) [upper-alpha 10] August 1–3, 20221,180 (A)± 2.9%32%42%–26%
974 (RV)± 3.1%33%44%–23%
516 (LV)± 4.3%38%49%–12%
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 11] July 21–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%45%48%–7%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 12] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%38%44%3%15%
Grow Progress (D) [upper-alpha 13] July 5–10, 20222,032 (RV)± 3.0%41%46%–13%
Kurt Jetta (D) [upper-alpha 10] July 1–3, 20221,199 (A)± 2.8%36%41%–23%
989 (RV)± 3.1%37%44%–20%
528 (LV)± 4.3%43%46%–11%
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 11] June 27–30, 2022816 (LV)± 3.4%46%48%–6%
Grow Progress (D) [upper-alpha 13] May 30 – June 3, 20222,018 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%–15%
Suffolk University May 22–24, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%2%17%
Momentive (D) [upper-alpha 10] May 13, 20221,174 (A)± 2.9%37%37%–25%
989 (RV)± 3.1%40%39%–21%
528 (LV)± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Grow Progress (D) [upper-alpha 13] April 25–29, 20222,014 (RV)± 2.5%41%43%–15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%3%24%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%37%3%23%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%39%37%–24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%42%17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%36%4%18%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%41%37%4%17%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%42%38%–20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%40%40%20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%4%23%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%38%4%22%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%38%–21%
J. D. Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		J.D.
Vance (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%38%40%22%

Results

2022 Ohio Senate SS.svg
State Senate Districts Results
2022 Ohio United States Senate election by State House District fixed.svg
State House Districts Results
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican J. D. Vance 2,192,114 53.04% -4.99%
Democratic Tim Ryan 1,939,48946.92%+9.76%
Write-in 1,7390.04%N/A
Total votes4,133,342 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By county

By county
CountyJ.D. Vance
Republican		Tim Ryan
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 6,74977.34%1,97622.64%10.01%4,77354.70%8,726
Allen 23,22971.02%9,42828.83%490.15%13,80142.19%32,706
Ashland 13,36672.61%5,03427.35%90.05%8,33245.26%18,409
Ashtabula 18,27759.14%12,56140.64%690.22%5,71618.50%30,907
Athens 7,48239.18%11,57860.62%380.20%-4,096-21.44%19,098
Auglaize 15,02280.37%3,64119.48%280.15%11,38160.89%18,691
Belmont 15,16967.25%7,35632.61%310.14%7,81334.64%22,556
Brown 10,83276.62%3,30023.34%50.04%7,53253.28%14,137
Butler 79,24061.88%48,77738.09%350.03%30,46323.79%128,052
Carroll 7,37272.70%2,74327.05%250.25%4,62945.65%10,140
Champaign 10,25371.03%4,09528.37%870.60%6,15842.66%14,435
Clark 27,13161.10%17,14138.60%1300.30%9,99022.50%44,402
Clermont 52,88865.97%27,08433.78%1940.24%25,80432.19%80,166
Clinton 10,51574.59%3,56225.27%210.15%6,95349.32%14,098
Columbiana 24,82969.77%10,70530.08%510.14%14,12439.69%35,585
Coshocton 8,02170.97%3,25528.80%260.23%4,76642.17%11,302
Crawford 10,85573.18%3,94826.61%310.21%6,90746.57%14,834
Cuyahoga 131,42732.12%277,03967.70%7500.18%-145,612-35.58%409,216
Darke 15,97780.76%3,77319.07%330.17%12,20461.69%19,783
Defiance 8,82166.03%4,51333.78%250.19%4,30832.25%13,359
Delaware 52,54053.13%46,31946.84%270.03%6,2216.29%98,886
Erie 15,28752.93%13,54146.89%510.18%1,7466.04%28,879
Fairfield 35,92660.63%23,30539.33%270.05%12,62121.30%59,258
Fayette 6,28774.76%2,10224.99%210.25%4,18549.77%8,410
Franklin 143,26333.64%281,50566.10%1,1340.27%-138,242-32.46%425,902
Fulton 10,90667.18%5,29932.64%280.17%5,60734.54%16,233
Gallia 6,99376.68%2,11623.20%110.12%4,87753.48%9,120
Geauga 25,33259.24%17,34840.57%810.19%7,98418.67%42,761
Greene 39,38559.51%26,75140.42%430.06%12,63419.09%66,179
Guernsey 8,67871.18%3,50528.75%90.07%5,17342.43%12,192
Hamilton 127,79242.25%174,51157.69%1830.06%-46,719-15.44%302,486
Hancock 18,35767.77%8,71732.18%140.05%9,64035.59%27,088
Hardin 6,52172.48%2,47127.46%50.06%4,05045.02%8,997
Harrison 3,72171.78%1,45127.99%120.23%2,27043.79%5,184
Henry 7,10268.94%3,19030.96%100.10%3,91237.98%10,302
Highland 10,18577.68%2,92522.31%20.02%7,26055.37%13,112
Hocking 6,35366.80%3,13933.00%190.20%3,21433.80%9,511
Holmes 7,05681.82%1,56418.14%40.05%5,49263.68%8,624
Huron 12,39867.24%5,99832.53%420.23%6,40034.71%18,438
Jackson 6,59974.17%2,28525.68%130.15%4,31448.49%8,897
Jefferson 14,97065.32%7,91434.53%340.15%7,05630.79%22,918
Knox 16,10469.70%6,96930.16%310.13%9,13539.54%23,104
Lake 50,89054.02%43,16645.82%1580.17%7,7248.20%94,214
Lawrence 12,69772.51%4,79327.37%210.12%7,90445.14%17,511
Licking 41,56662.51%24,77437.26%1540.23%16,79225.25%66,494
Logan 12,55176.15%3,89823.65%320.19%8,65352.50%16,481
Lorain 54,48848.70%57,19151.11%2090.19%-2,703-2.41%111,888
Lucas 53,00940.09%78,72759.54%4800.36%-25,718-19.45%132,216
Madison 9,76369.01%4,35030.75%350.25%5,41338.26%14,148
Mahoning 44,39751.64%41,42148.18%1510.18%2,9763.46%85,969
Marion 12,76066.65%6,34233.12%440.23%6,41833.53%19,146
Medina 45,96058.86%31,97940.95%1450.19%13,98117.91%78,084
Meigs 5,58974.84%1,87525.11%40.05%3,71449.73%7,468
Mercer 14,39080.84%3,38919.04%210.12%11,00161.80%17,800
Miami 30,11471.35%11,99328.42%990.23%18,12142.93%42,206
Monroe 3,47971.48%1,37828.31%100.21%2,10143.17%4,867
Montgomery 91,38249.04%94,51250.72%4600.25%-3,130-1.68%186,354
Morgan 3,49472.52%1,31727.33%70.15%2,17745.19%4,818
Morrow 9,98575.04%3,30324.82%180.14%6,68250.22%13,306
Muskingum 18,66468.28%8,63831.60%340.12%10,02636.68%27,336
Noble 3,51976.30%1,08323.48%100.22%2,43652.82%4,612
Ottawa 10,65357.80%7,75042.05%270.15%2,90315.75%18,430
Paulding 4,87375.31%1,58724.52%110.17%3,28650.79%6,471
Perry 8,55771.70%3,34228.00%360.30%5,21543.70%11,935
Pickaway 13,85970.72%5,69629.07%410.21%8,16341.65%19,596
Pike 5,48870.21%2,32729.77%20.03%3,16140.44%7,817
Portage 32,27453.29%28,17546.52%1140.19%4,0996.77%60,563
Preble 12,15677.22%3,53322.44%540.34%8,62354.78%15,743
Putnam 12,33282.09%2,66717.75%240.16%9,66564.34%15,023
Richland 28,81269.04%12,90430.92%160.04%15,90838.12%41,732
Ross 14,72865.06%7,85834.71%520.23%6,87030.35%22,638
Sandusky 13,07661.27%8,17738.31%900.42%4,89922.96%21,343
Scioto 14,65669.56%6,41130.43%40.02%8,24539.13%21,071
Seneca 11,61864.58%6,32235.14%510.28%5,29629.44%17,991
Shelby 14,51280.32%3,50919.42%470.26%11,00360.90%18,068
Stark 77,28757.87%56,21542.09%440.03%21,07215.78%133,546
Summit 86,72443.31%113,11256.49%4150.21%-26,388-13.18%200,251
Trumbull 39,08253.46%33,89046.36%1320.18%5,1927.10%73,104
Tuscarawas 20,07266.01%10,26733.77%670.22%9,80532.24%30,406
Union 16,32064.16%9,07535.67%430.17%7,24528.49%25,438
Van Wert 7,95978.49%2,17621.46%50.05%5,78357.03%10,140
Vinton 2,98674.28%1,02825.57%60.15%1,95848.71%4,020
Warren 65,37064.38%35,97035.43%1960.19%29,40028.95%101,536
Washington 15,81269.50%6,93830.50%10.00%8,87439.00%22,751
Wayne 25,59966.58%12,83233.37%190.05%12,76733.21%38,450
Williams 8,93569.57%3,90330.39%50.04%5,03239.18%12,843
Wood 24,85451.62%23,26948.33%250.05%1,5853.29%48,148
Wyandot 5,81171.93%2,25527.91%130.16%3,55644.02%8,079
Totals2,192,31252.97%1,939,75146.86%7,0710.17%252,5616.11%4,139,134
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Vance won 10 of 15 congressional districts. [200]

DistrictVanceRyanRepresentative
1st 46%54% Steve Chabot (117th Congress)
Greg Landsman (118th Congress)
2nd 70%30% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28%72% Joyce Beatty
4th 66%34% Jim Jordan
5th 62%38% Bob Latta
6th 58%42% Bill Johnson
7th 52%48% Bob Gibbs / Anthony Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Max Miller (118th Congress)
8th 62%38% Warren Davidson
9th 49.8%50.2% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51%49% Mike Turner
11th 21%79% Shontel Brown
12th 64%36% Troy Balderson
13th 47%53% Tim Ryan (117th Congress)
Emilia Sykes (118th Congress)
14th 55%45% David Joyce
15th 52%48% Mike Carey

Voter demographics

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election (53% to 47%), winning majority of white voters (59% to 40%), while Ryan received majorities of Black vote (86% to 13%) and, to smaller extent, Latino vote (59% to 41%). [201]

National Election Pool
Demographic subgroupRyanVanceNo
Answer		 % of
Voters
Gender
Men4158152
Women5347N/A48
Age
18–24 years old5941N/A4
25–29 years old594016
30–39 years old5445112
40–49 years old4753116
50–64 years old4258N/A31
65 and older4455131
Race
White 4059183
Black 8613112
Latino 5941N/A2
Race by gender
White men3564144
White women4653139
Black men831526
Black women8811N/A6
Education
High school or less3664N/A17
Some college education4653125
Associate degree 4455115
Bachelor's degree 4951N/A25
Advanced degree5743N/A17
Party ID
Democrats 973N/A30
Republicans 892N/A41
Independents 5049129
Ideology
Liberals 954120
Moderates 5643142
Conservatives 1189N/A38
Marital status
Married4753N/A64
Unmarried5445136
Gender by marital status
Married men3862N/A31
Married women5545N/A33
Unmarried men4553218
Unmarried women6337N/A17
Union household
Yes5643121
No4455179
First-time midterm election voter
Yes4852N/A9
No4753N/A91
Most important issue facing the country
Crime4159N/A8
Inflation2575N/A35
Gun policy 5443316
Immigration1288N/A9
Abortion8119N/A26
Area type
Urban5842N/A33
Suburban4158151
Rural4257116
Region
Cleveland Area6831112
North4455120
West3565N/A16
Columbus Area6040N/A19
Cincinnati/Dayton Area4158120
Ohio Valley3565N/A13
Source: CBS News [202]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. ↑ Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. ↑ Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. ↑ Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. ↑ Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. ↑ Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. ↑ Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. ↑ Tinsley with 5%
  11. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ↑ "All others" with 3%
  14. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  17. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  18. ↑ "Not going to vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. ↑ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
  10. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign
  12. ↑ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  13. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

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References

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  2. ↑ "Vance-ism Is Not the Future". National Review. November 9, 2022. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
  3. ↑ Silver, Nate (November 9, 2022). "Candidate Quality Mattered". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
  4. ↑ Bender, Michael C. (December 7, 2022). "The key statistics about Trump's endorsement track record this year". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved December 7, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Bolstered by millions in self-funded ads, Mike Gibbons is settling into the top tier of Ohio's Republican U.S. Senate primary". cleveland. March 8, 2022.
  6. ↑ Allison, Natalie (May 4, 2022). "Farewell to the dumbest Senate primary ever". Politico. Retrieved May 5, 2022.
  7. ↑ Smyth, Julie Carr. "Ohio GOP Senate hopeful Mike Gibbons: Middle class doesn't pay fair share". The Columbus Dispatch.
  8. ↑ McDaniel, Eric (April 15, 2022). "Trump endorses J.D. Vance, wading into Ohio's contentious Republican Senate primary". NPR.
  9. ↑ Allison, Natalie (April 29, 2022). "Republican who refuses to bend the knee to Trump surges in Ohio Senate race". POLITICO.
  10. ↑ Day, John McCormick and Chad (May 3, 2022). "Trump-Backed J.D. Vance Wins Ohio's GOP Primary for U.S. Senate". The Wall Street Journal– via www.wsj.com.
  11. ↑ BeMiller, Haley. "'Unprecedented' Ohio Senate race spending hits record $66 million ahead of Tuesday primary". The Columbus Dispatch.
  12. ↑ Smyth, Julie Carr (September 20, 2021). "GOP state Sen. Matt Dolan jumps into US Senate race in Ohio". Associated Press . Archived from the original on September 20, 2021. Retrieved September 20, 2021.
  13. ↑ Axelrod, Tal (September 20, 2021). "Centrist state lawmaker enters Ohio GOP Senate primary". The Hill . Archived from the original on September 20, 2021. Retrieved September 20, 2021.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "CANDIDATE PETITION VERIFICATIONS FOR THE 2022 PRIMARY ELECTION RELEASED". Ohio Secretary of State. February 16, 2022. Retrieved February 27, 2022.
  15. ↑ Greenwood, Max (April 13, 2021). "Businessman Mike Gibbons jumps into GOP Senate race in Ohio". thehill.com. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
  16. ↑ "GOP's Josh Mandel joins race for open Senate seat in Ohio" . The Independent. February 10, 2021. Archived from the original on February 11, 2021. Retrieved February 10, 2021.
  17. 1 2 "Republican candidates for U.S. Senate seat heading to Paulding". West Bend News. July 7, 2021. Archived from the original on July 8, 2021. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
  18. ↑ Ghose, Carrie (October 31, 2019). "Dublin IT firm exec selling most of interest, launching campaign to unseat GOP Sen. Rob Portman in 2022 primary". Columbus Business First . Retrieved October 25, 2020.
  19. ↑ "Jane Timken Announces She's Running for U.S. Senate". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved February 18, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Statement of Candidacy Withdrawal". John4Midwest.com. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  21. 1 2 3 4 Steinhauser, Paul (April 6, 2021). "Ohio race: Another candidate jumps into the most competitive GOP Senate primary in the country". Fox News . Retrieved April 6, 2021.
  22. ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (February 3, 2022). "Bernie Moreno drops out of Ohio's Republican U.S. Senate race". The Plain Dealer . Retrieved February 4, 2022.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "FILINGS FOR THE 2022 PRIMARY ELECTION RELEASED". Ohio Secretary of State. February 3, 2022. Archived from the original on February 4, 2022. Retrieved February 4, 2022.
  24. ↑ "FEC FORM 2 – STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY" (PDF). Federal Election Commission . August 6, 2021. Retrieved December 19, 2021.
  25. ↑ "Michael Leipold Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate to Represent Ohio – Decorated Military Leader, Dedicated Civil Servant, Family Man and Proud First Responder Fighting the Opioid Crisis in the Buckeye State". Cision . February 24, 2021. Retrieved February 26, 2021.
  26. ↑ "Michael Leipold Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate to Represent Ohio – Decorated Air Force Veteran".
  27. ↑ Mallett, Kent (January 26, 2021). "Balderson calls Capitol riot 'heartbreaking;' won't seek Portman's Senate seat". The Advocate (Newark) . Retrieved January 26, 2021.
  28. ↑ Popielarz, Taylor (March 31, 2021). "The Giant Field for Ohio's 2022 U.S. Senate Race" . Retrieved April 1, 2021.
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  30. ↑ Husted, Jon [@JonHusted] (January 27, 2021). "After contemplating running for the Senate for 48 hours, I was reminded how much I enjoy the challenges of my present job... I intend to keep doing this job, run for reelection, and one day in the future, I intend to run for governor. #OHSen #OHGov https://t.co/ucBf6Kf5Oc" (Tweet). Archived from the original on May 4, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022– via Twitter.
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  116. ↑ Bush, Bill (February 22, 2021). "Seven candidates disqualified for Columbus City Council, so no primary election needed". The Columbus Dispatch . Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  117. ↑ Corson, McKenna (March 11, 2021). "Geraldo Rivera decides against Ohio Senate run". Cleveland Jewish News. Retrieved March 14, 2021.
  118. ↑ Greenwood, Max (April 5, 2021). "Ohio Democrat Danny O'Connor won't seek Portman's Senate seat". The Hill. Retrieved April 5, 2021.
  119. ↑ Wetterich, Chris (February 10, 2021). "Pureval files for mayor's race". Cincinnati Business Courier. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  120. ↑ Wilkinson, Howard (February 4, 2021). "Analysis: Is Now Ohio's Time For A Black Or Woman Candidate For Senate?". WVXU . Retrieved February 5, 2021.
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  122. ↑ BeMiller, Titus Wu and Haley (August 18, 2021). "House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes says she won't run in Ohio's crowded U.S. Senate race". Akron Beacon Journal. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
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  124. ↑ Martin, Jonathan (March 6, 2021). "Democrats Want a Stronger Edge in the Senate. Ohio Could Be Crucial". The New York Times. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
  125. ↑ "Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley announces run for Governor". WHIO TV 7 and WHIO Radio. April 19, 2021.
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  131. 1 2 "OH-Sen: Parkland Father Fred Guttenberg Builds Momentum For Tim Ryan's (D) Senate Campaign". Daily Kos . March 16, 2021. Retrieved March 16, 2021.
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  139. 1 2 "NARAL Pro-Choice America endorses Tim Ryan for U.S. Senate". The Chronicle. February 24, 2022.
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  164. ↑ Wenstrup, Brad (November 7, 2022). "Real-life experiences make a better lawmaker". Archived from the original on November 7, 2022. Retrieved November 7, 2022.
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  166. ↑ "Governor races could change the battle for the Senate". Archived from the original on December 13, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
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  171. ↑ Dusty Rhodes (November 4, 2022). "Opinion: I'm an elected Democrat, and I know Tim Ryan is a fraud". Cincinnati Enquirer.
  172. ↑ "Vance a clear choice for Senate". mariettatimes.com. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
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  175. ↑ "Ohio FOP endorses JD Vance for U.S. Senate" . Retrieved July 24, 2022.
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  182. ↑ "Ohio's Tim Ryan Welcomes Joe Manchin at Campaign Event After Shunning Biden". Bloomberg. October 20, 2022.
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  191. ↑ "Elect Ryan to the US Senate".
  192. ↑ "Ohio deserves a statesman in US Senate not a Trump kiss up. Who our board thinks should win".
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  197. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved November 1, 2022.
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