2022 United States Senate election in Georgia

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2022 United States Senate election in Georgia
Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
←  2020–21 (special) November 8, 2022 (first round)
December 6, 2022 (runoff)		 2028  →
  Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpg Herschel Walker in May 2018 (1).jpg
Candidate Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker
Party Democratic Republican
First round1,946,117
49.44%		1,908,442
48.49%
Runoff 1,820,633
51.40%		1,721,244
48.60%
2022 United States Senate election in Georgia results map by county.svg
2022 GA Senate election(General).svg
2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia results map by county.svg
2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia by Congressional District.svg
2022 GA Senate (Runoff).svg
Warnock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Walker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
U.S. senator before election

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8. [1] Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.

Contents

Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election, was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 in which both major party nominees were Black. [2] [3] [a]

In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff. [4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms. [5] [6] This was the first time since 1998 that Georgia voted for different parties for U.S. senator and governor in the same election cycle. It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.

Democratic primary

Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery. [7] [8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Tamara
Johnson-Shealey		Raphael
Warnock		Undecided
Emerson College [27] April 1–3, 2022453 (LV)± 4.6%6%85%10%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Warnock 80-90% 90-100% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Warnock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 702,610 96.04%
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey28,9843.96%
Total votes731,594 100.0%

Republican primary

Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary. Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black (cropped).jpg
Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Debates

2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates
No.DateOrganizerLocationKey:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn		Source
Gary BlackJosh ClarkKelvin KingJonathan McColumnLatham SaddlerHerschel Walker
1April 9, 2022 Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party Gainesville PPPPPA [52]
2May 3, 2022Atlanta Press Club,
Georgia Public Broadcasting 		Atlanta PPPPPA [53]

Endorsements

Gary Black

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Herschel Walker

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

  • American Conservative Union [65]
  • Black America's Political Action Committee [66]
  • National Right to Life [67]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Gary
Black		Josh
Clark		Kelvin
King		Jonathan
McColumn		Latham
Saddler		Herschel
Walker		Other
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [68] May 12–23, 2022May 24, 20229.0%2.7%4.0%1.7%9.0%64.7%12.9%Walker +55.7
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Gary
Black		Josh
Clark		Kelvin
King		Jonathan
McColumn		Latham
Saddler		Herschel
Walker		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [69] May 21–23, 20221,074 (LV)± 2.9%10%3%4%2%10%67%–4%
Landmark Communications (R) [70] May 22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%9%3%5%2%12%60%–9%
Fox News [71] May 12–16, 20221,004 (LV)± 3.0%8%2%3%1%5%66%1%11%
ARW Strategies (R) [72] April 30 – May 1, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%10%1%3%1%4%59%–23%
SurveyUSA [73] April 22–27, 2022559 (LV)± 4.8%6%3%2%2%3%62%–21%
University of Georgia [74] April 10–22, 2022886 (LV)± 3.3%7%1%1%1%2%66%–23%
Landmark Communications (R) [75] April 9–10, 2022660 (LV)± 3.8%9%3%4%0%5%64%–14%
Spry Strategies (R) [76] April 6–10, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%7%2%4%–2%64%–21%
University of Georgia [77] March 20 – April 8, 2022~329 (LV)± 5.4%8%0%2%0%2%64%–24%
Emerson College [27] April 1–3, 2022509 (LV)± 4.3%13%4%5%3%2%57%2% [d] 16%
Fox News [78] March 2–6, 2022914 (LV)± 3.0%8%1%3%–2%66%1%16%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [79] February 28 – March 1, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%6%3%4%–3%63%2%20%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [80] February 11–13, 20221,072 (LV)± 3.0%6%–2%–3%70%–19%
Quinnipiac University [81] January 19–24, 2022666 (LV)± 3.8%6%0%2%–1%81%0% [e] 9%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [82] [A] October 11–14, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%6%–1%–1%74%2% [f] 16%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [83] September 2–4, 20211,078 (LV)± 3.0%6%–2%–3%76%–13%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [84] [B] August 11–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%5%–2%–1%54%3% [g] 35%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Doug
Collins		Marjorie
Taylor Greene		Kelly
Loeffler		Herschel
Walker		Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) [85] March 14–15, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%35%7%22%27%11%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage [86] March 7–9, 2021– (LV) [h] –33%–24%33%11%

Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Doug
Collins		Kelly
Loeffler		Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) [85] March 14–15, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%36%10%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage [86] March 7–9, 2021– (LV) [h] –52%32%16%

Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Herschel
Walker		Doug
Collins		Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage [86] March 7–9, 2021– (LV) [h] –50%36%14%

Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Herschel
Walker		Kelly
Loeffler		Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage [86] March 7–9, 2021– (LV) [h] –62%26%11%

Results

Results by county: Walker 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Walker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Herschel Walker 803,560 68.18%
Republican Gary Black 157,37013.35%
Republican Latham Saddler104,4718.86%
Republican Josh Clark 46,6933.96%
Republican Kelvin King37,9303.22%
Republican Jonathan McColumn28,6012.43%
Total votes1,178,625 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver Chase Oliver by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [90] TossupMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [91] TossupApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [92] Lean R (flip)November 7, 2022
Politico [93] TossupApril 1, 2022
RCP [94] TossupFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News [95] TossupOctober 25, 2022
DDHQ [96] TossupOctober 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [97] Lean R (flip)November 7, 2022
The Economist [98] TossupNovember 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Georgia debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker Chase Oliver
1Oct. 14, 2022 Nexstar Media Group Buck Lanford
Tina Tyus-Shaw 		PPN
2Oct. 16, 2022 Georgia Public Broadcasting Scott Slade [99] PAP

Endorsements

Raphael Warnock (D)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Herschel Walker (R)

Executive Branch officials

State officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Herschel
Walker (R)		Other
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [162] October 29 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202247.4%48.8%3.8%Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEight [163] October 13 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202246.7%47.7%5.69%Walker +1.0
270ToWin [164] November 4–7, 2022November 7, 202247.3%48.5%5.1%Walker +1.2
Average47.1%48.3%4.6%Walker +1.2

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Herschel
Walker (R)		Chase
Oliver (L)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [165] November 5–7, 2022791 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%–5% [i] –
Landmark Communications [166] November 4–7, 20221,214 (LV)± 2.8%46%47%5%–2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [167] November 6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%47%49%1%–4%
Research Co. [168] November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%1%–5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [169] November 4–6, 20221,103 (LV)± 2.9%47%50%2%–2%
Data for Progress (D) [170] November 2–6, 20221,474 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%––
Targoz Market Research [171] November 2–6, 2022579 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%1%2% [j] –
East Carolina University [172] November 2–5, 20221,077 (LV)± 3.5%49%49%2%––
Amber Integrated (R) [173] November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%45%48%3%–4%
Remington Research Group (R) [174] November 1–2, 20221,150 (LV)± 2.8%45%49%2%–4%
Echleon Insights [175] October 31 – November 2, 2022500 (LV)± 5.4%45%49%3%–3%
45%52%––3%
Marist College [176] October 31 – November 2, 20221,168 (RV)± 3.9%49%45%–1% [k] 6%
1,009 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%–1% [k] 3%
Moore Information Group (R) [177] [C] October 29 – November 2, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%44%49%2%–5%
SurveyUSA [178] October 29 – November 2, 20221,171 (LV)± 3.7%49%43%3%–5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D) [179] [D] October 30 – November 1, 2022700 (RV)± 3.7%49%45%4%–2%
Emerson College [180] October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%1% [l] 2%
50%48%2%1% [l] –
Fox News [181] October 26–30, 20221,002 (RV)± 3.0%44%43%–6% [m] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [182] October 27, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%45%48%2%<1% [n] 5%
Siena College/NYT [183] October 24–27, 2022604 (LV)± 4.8%49%46%1%–4%
University of Georgia [184] October 16–27, 20221,022 (LV)± 3.1%45%46%5%–5%
co/efficient (R) [185] October 24–25, 2022946 (LV)± 3.2%44%47%3%–6%
Moore Information Group (R) [186] [C] October 22–25, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%42%46%3%––
Rasmussen Reports (R) [187] October 23–24, 20221,053 (LV)± 3.0%43%48%–4% [o] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [188] [E] October 21–23, 20221,076 (LV)± 2.9%47%49%5%––
East Carolina University [189] October 13–18, 2022905 (LV)± 3.8%49%47%–2% [p] 3%
Landmark Communications [190] October 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%3%–2%
Data for Progress (D) [191] October 13–17, 2022984 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%3%–3%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [192] October 16, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%43%4%1% [q] 6%
Wick Insights (R) [193] October 8–14, 20221,018 (LV)± 3.1%46%46%–3% [r] 5%
Civiqs [194] October 8–11, 2022717 (LV)± 4.6%49%46%–3% [r] 1%
Moore Information Group (R) [195] [C] October 8–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%44%46%4%––
The Trafalgar Group (R) [196] October 8–11, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%4%–5%
Quinnipiac University [197] October 7–10, 20221,157 (LV)± 2.9%52%45%–1% [s] 1%
Emerson College [198] October 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%1%1% [l] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [199] October 4, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%47%44%3%1% [q] 5%
SurveyUSA [200] September 30 – October 4, 20221,076 (LV)± 3.7%50%38%–5% [t] 7%
University of Georgia [201] September 25 – October 4, 20221,030 (LV)± 3.1%46%43%4%–6%
Fox News [202] September 22–26, 20221,011 (RV)± 3.0%46%41%–6% [u] 7%
Data for Progress (D) [203] September 16–20, 20221,006 (RV)± 3.0%46%46%4%–3%
YouGov/CBS News [204] September 14–19, 20221,178 (RV)± 4.0%51%49%––0%
University of Georgia [205] September 5–16, 2022861 (LV)± 3.3%44%46%–3%7%
Marist College [206] September 12–15, 20221,202 (RV)± 3.6%47%42%4%–7%
992 (LV)± 4.0%47%45%4%–4%
Kurt Jetta (D) [207] [F] September 9–12, 2022949 (RV)± 3.5%50%37%––13%
542 (LV)49%45%––7%
Quinnipiac University [208] September 8–12, 20221,278 (LV)± 2.7%52%46%–1%2%
Echelon Insights [209] August 31 – September 7, 2022751 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%––10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [210] September 6–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%44%47%4%–5%
Emerson College [211] August 28–29, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%44%46%–4%7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [212] August 24–27, 20221,079 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%3%–3%
Phillips Academy [213] August 3–7, 2022971 (RV)± 3.1%44%45%––11%
Research Affiliates (D) [214] [G] July 26 – August 1, 2022420 (LV)± 4.8%49%46%––5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [215] July 26–27, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%48%45%3%1%3%
Fox News [216] July 22–26, 2022908 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%–1%9%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [217] [H] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%42%46%–3%9%
SurveyUSA [218] July 21–24, 2022604 (LV)± 5.3%48%39%–5%8%
University of Georgia [219] July 14–22, 2022902 (LV)± 3.3%46%43%3%–8%
Beacon Research (D) [220] [I] July 5–20, 20221,003 (RV)± 3.1%48%36%–2%11%
602 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%–1%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [221] July 5–11, 20221,197 (LV)± 4.4%50%47%––3%
Data for Progress (D) [222] July 1–6, 20221,131 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%––4%
Change Research (D) [223] [J] June 24–27, 2022704 (LV)± 3.7%48%44%––8%
Quinnipiac University [224] June 23–27, 20221,497 (RV)± 2.5%54%44%–0%3%
Moore Information Group (R) [225] [C] June 11–16, 2022800 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%––6%
East Carolina University [226] June 6–9, 2022868 (RV)± 3.9%47%47%–2%4%
SurveyUSA [227] April 22–27, 20221,278 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%––5%
Grassroots Targeting (R) [228] [A] April 3–16, 20222,500 (RV)± 2.0%41%51%––8%
Emerson College [27] April 1–3, 20221,013 (RV)± 3.0%45%49%––6%
Blueprint Polling (D) [229] March 2–8, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%45%49%––6%
Change Research (D) [223] [J] March 2022– (LV)–48%49%––3%
Wick Insights (R) [230] February 2–6, 20221,290 (LV)± 2.7%46%47%––8%
Quinnipiac University [81] January 19–24, 20221,702 (RV)± 2.4%48%49%–0%3%
University of Georgia [231] January 13–24, 2022872 (RV)± 3.3%44%47%–1%8%
NRSC (R) [232] [K] December 4–8, 2021831 (LV)± 3.4%48%49%––3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [233] November 9, 2021753 (RV)± 3.6%45%39%–2%8%
733 (LV)48%42%–2%6%
Public Policy Polling (D) [234] August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%48%46%––6%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) [235] March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%48%–3%4%
Hypothetical polling

Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Gary
Black (R)		OtherUndecided
University of Georgia [231] January 13–24, 2022872 (RV)± 3.3%46%41%1%11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [234] August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%46%38%–16%

Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Kelly
Loeffler (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [234] August 4–5, 2021622 (V)± 3.9%47%44%–9%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) [235] March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%41%8%5%

Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Doug
Collins (R)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) [235] March 7–9, 20211,093 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%5%5%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R) [228] [A] April 3–16, 20222,500 (RV)± 2.0%40%52%8%

Results

Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 203,130 votes, while Warnock did 132,444 votes better than Abrams. [236]

2022 United States Senate election in Georgia [237]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,946,117 49.44% +1.05%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,908,442 48.49% −0.88%
Libertarian Chase Oliver 81,3652.07%+1.35%
Total votes3,935,924 100.0%

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts. [238]

DistrictWarnockWalkerRepresentative
1st 42%56% Buddy Carter
2nd 54%45% Sanford Bishop
3rd 34%63% Drew Ferguson
4th 80%19% Hank Johnson
5th 84%14% Nikema Williams
6th 41%56% Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th 63%35% Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th 34%64% Austin Scott
9th 29%68% Andrew Clyde
10th 38%60% Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th 41%56% Barry Loudermilk
12th 43%56% Rick Allen
13th 82%16% David Scott
14th 31%67% Marjorie Taylor Greene

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by voters in person as well as by phone. [239]

2022 United States Senate election voter demographics in Georgia (CNN) [239]
Demographic subgroupWarnockWalkerOliver % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 935218
Moderates 6632241
Conservatives 1188141
Party
Democrats 972035
Republicans 495141
Independents 5342424
Gender
Men4454247
Women5345153
Marital status
Married4753164
Unmarried6037136
Gender by marital status
Married men3860231
Married women4455131
Unmarried men5839315
Unmarried women6533123
Race/ethnicity
White 2970162
Black 908128
Latino 583936
Asian 593922
Other racial/ethnic groups534143
White voters by gender
White men2771231
White women3068130
Black men8512211
Black women935117
Latino men613723
Latina women554144
All other races554034
Age
18–24 years old692836
25–29 years old574026
30–39 years old5740314
40–49 years old5246117
50–64 years old4454132
65 and older4158125
2020 presidential vote
Biden 973043
Trump 495148
First time midterm election voter
Yes524448
No4652192
Education
Never attended college 3959116
Some college education4950127
Associate degree 4849316
Bachelor's degree 4751223
Advanced degree6038217
Education by race
White college graduates4058227
White no college degree1979134
Non-white college graduates7820113
Non-white no college degree8215225
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees4454113
White women without college degrees2079117
White men with college degrees3661214
White men without college degrees1980118
Non-white8117238
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 5048213
Abortion 7721126
Inflation 2772137
Gun Policy 5840110
Immigration 158327
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied1683143
Dissatisfied/angry7720253
Abortion should be
Legal7523153
Illegal1187143
Area type
Urban6831120
Suburban4849253
Rural3565127

Runoff

Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate. [v] [240] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary. [241] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high. [242] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out. [243] This was the fifth runoff in the state's history.

The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks. [244] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25). [w] [247] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26; [248] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21, [249] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23. [250] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday, [251] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb. [252]

While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority, [1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations. [253] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend, [x] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward. [253] [254] [255]

According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat. [256]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [257] TossupNovember 18, 2022
Inside Elections [258] Tilt DDecember 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [259] Lean DDecember 5, 2022
DDHQ [260] Lean DDecember 6, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Herschel
Walker (R)		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [261] November 11 – December 4, 2022December 5, 202251.0%47.3%1.5%Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEight [262] November 26 – December 5, 2022December 5, 202251.1%47.2%2.1%Warnock +3.9
270ToWin [263] November 22 – December 5, 2022December 5, 202251.0%47.7%1.5%Warnock +3.3
Average51.0%47.4%1.7%Warnock +3.6

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Raphael
Warnock (D)		Herschel
Walker (R)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [264] December 3–5, 20221,099 (LV)± 2.9%51%47%–2%
Data for Progress (D) [265] December 1–5, 20221,229 (LV)± 3.0%51%49%––
InsiderAdvantage (R) [266] December 4, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%51%48%–1%
Landmark Communications [267] December 4, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%47%–1%
Mitchell Research [268] December 4, 2022625 (LV)± 3.6%50%45%–5%
Patriot Polling [269] November 30 – December 2, 2022818 (RV)–49%47%–4%
Emerson College [270] November 28–30, 2022888 (LV)± 3.2%51%49%––
49%47%–4%
SurveyUSA [271] November 26–30, 20221,214 (LV)± 3.6%50%47%–3%
50%46%–4%
CNN/SSRS [272] November 25–29, 20221,886 (RV)± 3.0%51%44%5% [y] –
1,184 (LV)± 3.8%52%48%1% [z] –
UMass Lowell/YouGov [273] November 18–28, 20221,300 (LV)± 3.2%51%46%–2%
Phillips Academy [274] November 26–27, 2022862 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%–5%
Frederick Polls (D) [275] [L] November 23–26, 2022939 (LV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [276] November 11–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%51%47%–2%

Results

Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.

2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia [277]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,820,633 51.40% +0.36%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,721,24448.60%−0.36%
Total votes3,541,877 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts. [278]

DistrictWarnockWalkerRepresentative
1st 44%56% Buddy Carter
2nd 56%44% Sanford Bishop
3rd 36%64% Drew Ferguson
4th 82%18% Hank Johnson
5th 87%13% Nikema Williams
6th 44%56% Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th 66%34% Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th 35%65% Austin Scott
9th 31%69% Andrew Clyde
10th 39%61% Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th 43%57% Barry Loudermilk
12th 44%56% Rick Allen
13th 84%16% David Scott
14th 32%68% Marjorie Taylor Greene

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014 and 2016, and concurrently with South Carolina in 2022.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. 1 2 3 Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Nestor with 2%
  5. ↑ Craig and Nestor with 0%
  6. ↑ Craig and Nestor with 1%
  7. ↑ Carter with 3%
  8. 1 2 3 4 Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  9. ↑ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
  10. ↑ "All others" with 2%
  11. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  12. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  14. ↑ "Other" with <1%
  15. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  16. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. 1 2 "Other" with 1%
  18. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Other candidate" with 5%
  21. ↑ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  22. ↑ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
  23. ↑ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed. [245] [246]
  24. ↑ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
  25. ↑ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
  26. ↑ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
  3. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
  4. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party.
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  6. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
  7. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
  8. ↑ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  9. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  10. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
  11. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  12. ↑ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.

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        78. ↑ Fox News
        79. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
        80. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
        81. 1 2 Quinnipiac University
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        88. ↑ Hall, Christian (October 13, 2022). "Georgia's Senate Race Was Already Tight. Enter Libertarian Candidate Chase Oliver". Bloomberg News. Retrieved December 6, 2022– via Yahoo! News.
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        91. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
        92. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Archived from the original on February 1, 2021. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
        93. ↑ "Georgia Senate Race 2022". Politico . April 1, 2022.
        94. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
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        96. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. August 31, 2022. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
        97. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
        98. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
        99. ↑ Bennett, Nicole (October 16, 2022). "Listen Live: Georgia Senate debate, moderated by WSB's Scott Slade". 95.5 WSB. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
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        102. ↑ Everett, Burgess (November 29, 2022). "Dem dreams of a 'real' majority hinge on Georgia". Politico. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        103. ↑ "Unlikely duo: John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro aim for united front". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review . June 20, 2022.
        104. ↑ Umontuen, Itoro (October 21, 2022). "2022 Elections: Senator Jon Ossoff officially votes for Senator Raphael Warnock". The Atlanta Voice. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
        105. 1 2 3 4 5 "Senator Warnock speaks at Rosa Parks Square". WGXA News. October 7, 2022. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
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        108. ↑ "Abrams, Warnock combine campaign firepower in first joint rally". Georgia Public Broadcasting. September 2022.
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        110. ↑ "Sen. Warnock stops in Augusta for voting rally, city leaders in attendance". WXFG Fox54 News Now. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
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        116. ↑ "Midterm elections: LeBron James makes endorsement in Georgia Senate race". WGMD. November 8, 2022.
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        119. ↑ "Gucci Mane – Letter to Takeoff". Genius. November 16, 2022. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
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        122. ↑ "Hollywood heavy hitters stump for Abrams and Warnock". The Washington Examiner. October 19, 2022.
        123. ↑ Bluestein, Greg (November 29, 2022). "Michelle Obama boosts Warnock's Senate runoff campaign". The Atlanta Journal Constitution. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
        124. ↑ Mayer, Emma (October 24, 2022). "Oprah, John Legend and More Celebs Stump for Midterm Candidates". Newsweek. Retrieved November 4, 2022.:
        125. ↑ Murphy, Patricia; Bluestein, Greg; Mitchell, Tia (October 24, 2022). "The Jolt: Kemp, Warnock and Ossoff to share stage at Savannah event". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
        126. ↑ Shapero, Julia (November 3, 2022). "Oprah Winfrey backs Fetterman". The Hill. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
        127. ↑ "'Fonzie's' ill-advised hot take on why to vote Warnock gets a BIG thumbs down". Bizpac Review. December 6, 2022.
        128. ↑ Wooten, Kristi York (December 5, 2022). "Stevie Wonder plays last-minute virtual concert for Sen. Warnock before Georgia's Dec. 6 runoff". Georgia Public Broadcasting. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
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        131. ↑ "2022 PACE Endorsements". National Association of Social Workers Political Action for Candidate Election. Retrieved December 3, 2022.
        132. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved October 29, 2022.
        133. ↑ "Georgia - UAW Endorsements". United Auto Workers.
        134. 1 2 3 Suggs, Donnell (November 4, 2022). "'He wants to abolish the family:' Walker makes Warnock, economy focus during LaGrange rally". The Atlanta Voice.
        135. ↑ Caputo, Marc; Kapur, Sahil (December 2, 2022). "Amid GOP worries, Herschel Walker's campaign desperately pleads for cash". NBC News. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        136. ↑ Chakraborty, Barnini (October 20, 2022). "Kemp presents united front with Walker despite scandals". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
        137. 1 2 3 4 "Senate candidate Herschel Walker stops in Augusta as opponents question his campaign". WFXG.
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        139. ↑ Gillespie, Brandon (December 3, 2022). "'When Women Work, We Win': GOP firebrands rally Georgia women to support Walker in runoff over 'shady' Warnock". Fox News. Retrieved December 6, 2022– via Yahoo! News.
        140. 1 2 3 "Herschel Walker picks up endorsements from four ex-Georgia senators". The Washington Examiner. October 31, 2022.
        141. ↑ Neukam, Stephen (October 20, 2022). "John Cornyn doubles down on support for embattled Georgia Republican Herschel Walker with Senate fundraising effort". The Texas Tribune.
        142. ↑ Scherer, Michael; Linskey, Annie (October 8, 2022). "Rick Scott, Tom Cotton to rally in Ga. for embattled Herschel Walker". The Washington Post . Washington, D.C. ISSN   0190-8286. OCLC   1330888409.
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        144. ↑ "Josh Hawley backing Herschel Walker in wake of abortion story". The Kansas City Star. December 4, 2022. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        145. ↑ Swanepoel, Sharon (December 3, 2022). "US Sen. Scott and Kennedy will be in Loganville Sunday to rally for candidate Walker". Your Local News. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        146. ↑ Burris, Sarah K. (December 5, 2022). "Herschel Walker supporter screams during Sen. Kennedy speech that Obama is the 'altar of the devil'". MSN. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        147. ↑ Darnell, Tim (September 8, 2022). "Out of office, former GOP senator Kelly Loeffler remains active in politics". WRDW. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
        148. ↑ Linskey, Annie; Wootson Jr., Cleve R. (October 5, 2022). "GOP leaders rally behind Walker. But in Georgia, Republicans fret". The Washington Post . Washington, D.C. ISSN   0190-8286. OCLC   1330888409.
        149. ↑ "Tim Scott stars in ads for GOP candidates in six key states". NBC News. August 10, 2022.
        150. ↑ "GOP Rep. Don Bacon defends Herschel Walker: 'We all make mistakes'". Axios. October 9, 2022.
        151. ↑ "With Herschel Walker's Senate run confirmed, Rep. Buddy Carter changes course and offers endorsement". savannahnow.com.
        152. ↑ "GOP heavyweight Newt Gingrich joins Herschel Walker in law enforcement endorsement". CBS46. July 29, 2022.
        153. ↑ "Herschel Walker endorsed by Georgia football legend". thecomeback.com. October 20, 2022.
        154. 1 2 3 "Tom Glavine, Ric Flair, Doug Flutie to join Trump for Herschel Walker event". The Hill . October 16, 2021.
        155. ↑ "Warnock and Walker hold events on runoff election eve". WABE. December 6, 2022.
        156. ↑ Landen, Xander (November 4, 2022). "Chuck Norris jumps into U.S. midterms, backing key Senate candidate". Newsweek. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
        157. ↑ Goldmacher, Shane; King, Maya; Lerer, Lisa (October 4, 2022). "In Speedy Embrace of Herschel Walker, Republicans Make Familiar Political Bargain". The New York Times.
        158. ↑ Bluestein, Greg [@bluestein] (October 30, 2022). "Kanye West just endorsed Herschel Walker #gapol #gasen https://t.co/mnyYzENAg5" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022– via Twitter.
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        167. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
        168. ↑ Research Co.
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        170. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
        171. ↑ Targoz Market Research
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        174. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
        175. ↑ Echleon Insights
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        183. ↑ Siena College/NYT
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        185. ↑ co/efficient (R)
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        187. ↑ Rasmussen Reports (R)
        188. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
        189. ↑ East Carolina University
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        193. ↑ Wick Insights (R)
        194. ↑ Civiqs
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        204. ↑ YouGov/CBS News
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        220. ↑ Beacon Research (D)
        221. ↑ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
        222. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
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        231. 1 2 University of Georgia
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        235. 1 2 3 The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)
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        237. ↑ "United States Senate - November 8, 2022 General Election". Georgia Secretary of State. November 12, 2022. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
        238. ↑ "DRA 2020".
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        241. ↑ Rodriguez, Sabrina; Linskey, Annie (November 13, 2022). "Parties gear up for runoff in Ga., the last outstanding Senate race". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        242. ↑ Samuels, Alex (November 3, 2022). "What Happens If Georgia's Senate Race Goes To A Runoff — Again?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
        243. ↑ Samuels, Alex (November 9, 2022). "Can Raphael Warnock Pull Off Another Senate Runoff?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        244. ↑ Amy, Jeff (November 13, 2022). "Shorter voting window could cut turnout in Georgia runoff". Associated Press. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        245. ↑ "Observing State Holidays". Governor of Georgia. Archived from the original on February 26, 2017. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
        246. ↑ Gore, Leada (October 16, 2015). "Georgia does away with Confederate Memorial Day, Robert E. Lee Birthday". AL.com. Retrieved August 18, 2017.
        247. ↑ King, Maya; Vigdor, Neil (November 14, 2022). "Georgia's Senate Runoff Is Complicated by 2021 Voting Law". The New York Times. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        248. ↑ Niesse, Mark (November 18, 2022). "BREAKING: Judge allows Saturday voting before U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
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        250. ↑ Niesse, Mark (November 23, 2022). "Georgia Supreme Court upholds Saturday voting in US Senate runoff". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        251. ↑ Sterling, Gabriel [@GabrielSterling] (November 26, 2022). "Counties voting today in Georgia Baker Baldwin Bartow Bibb Burke Chatham Clarke Cobb Crawford DeKalb Douglas Fulton Gilmer Gwinnett Hancock Henry Macon Mitchell Muscogee Newton Randolph Rockdale Screven Terrell Troup Walton Ware https://t.co/zyMJnbNWlh #gapol #PlanYourVote https://t.co/bfA6BvIQiC" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 27, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022– via Twitter.
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        255. ↑ "Democrats kept the Senate this year, but 2024 may be harder". Associated Press. November 28, 2022. Retrieved December 7, 2022.
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        266. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
        267. ↑ Landmark Communications
        268. ↑ Mitchell Research
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        273. ↑ UMass Lowell/YouGov
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        278. ↑ "GA 22 SEN Runoff CDS".

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