2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  

All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election21
Seats won30
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote387,716316,352
Percentage55.06%44.93%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.20%Decrease2.svg 0.19%

New Mexico 2022 US House of Representatives.svg
2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in New Mexico by county.svg

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the New Mexico gubernatorial election and various state and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.

Contents

Redistricting

Process

In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals. [1]

On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district. [2]

Targeting of the 2nd district

In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks." [3]

The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad. [4] After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8. [5]

Legislature's map

On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas." [6] [7] [8] [9] The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17. [10] [11]

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%. [12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%. [13]

District 1

2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
2024  
  Melanie Stansbury 117th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Melanie Stansbury Michelle Garcia Holmes
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote156,458124,150
Percentage55.7%44.2%

2022 Congressional Election in New Mexico's 1st District.svg
County results
Stansbury:     50–60%     60–70%
Garcia Holmes:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Melanie Stansbury
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Melanie Stansbury
Democratic

The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca, and Lincoln, as well as eastern Bernalillo County and most of Albuquerque. [14] Democrat Deb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020, [15] resigned on March 16, 2021, after she was confirmed to become the U.S. Secretary of the Interior. [16] Democrat Melanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021 special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote. [17]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) 44,223 100.0
Total votes44,223 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Louie Sanchez, small business owner [18]
Disqualified
  • Joshua Neal, city planner [18]
  • Jacquelyn Reeve, nurse practitioner [18]

Results

Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 25,822 58.7
Republican Louie Sanchez18,17141.3
Total votes43,993 100.0

General election

Debates and forums

2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district general election debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
Garcia HolmesStansbury
1 [28] October 14, 2022 KOB 4 Tessa Mentus & Matt Grubs YouTube PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [29] Solid DApril 27, 2022
Inside Elections [30] Solid DApril 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Likely DApril 27, 2022
Politico [32] Likely DApril 18, 2022
RCP [33] Lean DOctober 30, 2022
Fox News [34] Likely DJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ [35] Likely DJuly 20, 2022
538 [36] Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist [37] Likely DSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Melanie
Stansbury (D)
Michelle Garcia
Holmes (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022372 (LV)± 5.0%50%40%2% [lower-alpha 2] 8%
54%43%3% [lower-alpha 3]
Research & Polling Inc. October 20–27, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%48%42%9%

Results

2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) 156,462 55.8
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes124,15144.2
Independent Victoria Gonzales (write-in)580.0
Total votes280,671 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2020
2024  
  Rep Gabriel Vasquez Official Portrait (cropped).jpg Yvette Herrell official photo, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Gabe Vasquez Yvette Herrell
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote96,98095,638
Percentage50.3%49.6%

2022 Congressional Election in New Mexico's 2nd District.svg
New Mexico 2nd Congressional District 2022 map by precincts.svg
County results
Herrell:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     ≥90%
Vasquez:     50–60%     60–70%     70-80%     80-90%     ≥90%
Tie     50%

U.S. Representative before election

Yvette Herrell
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabe Vasquez
Democratic

The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities of Las Cruces, Carlsbad, and Alamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs of Albuquerque. [14] The incumbent was Republican Yvette Herrell, who had flipped back the district from Xochitl Torres Small (who had in turn narrowly defeated her for the seat in a race to replace a Republican incumbent in 2018) with 53.7% of the vote in 2020. [15] The new 2022-2032 lines for the district made it more competitive for Democrats, with Vasquez defeating Herrell in a narrow race that was too close to call until the next afternoon. [39]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Yvette Herrell (incumbent) 28,623 100.0
Total votes28,623 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Darshan Patel, physician [18]
Declined

Results

Democratic primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabe Vasquez 24,010 76.1
Democratic Darshan Patel7,53423.9
Total votes31,544 100.0

General election

Debate

2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Yvette Herrell Gabe Vasquez
1Oct. 21, 2022 KOB (TV) Matt Grubs
Tessa Mentus
YouTube PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [29] TossupApril 27, 2022
Inside Elections [30] TossupApril 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Lean ROctober 26, 2022
Politico [32] TossupApril 18, 2022
RCP [33] Lean RJune 9, 2022
Fox News [34] TossupAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ [35] Likely RNovember 1, 2022
538 [36] Likely RNovember 1, 2022
The Economist [37] TossupSeptember 28, 2022

Endorsements

Yvette Herrell (R)
Gabe Vasquez (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Gabe
Vasquez (D)
Undecided
[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight July 19 – October 28, 2022October 31, 202249.4%45.3%5.3%Herrell +4.1
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Gabe
Vasquez (D)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022302 (LV)± 5.6%54%41%1% [lower-alpha 5] 4%
54%44%2% [lower-alpha 6]
Research & Polling Inc. October 20–27, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%45%47%8%
Siena College/New York Times October 20–24, 2022398 (LV)± 5.5%47%48%5%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 1] September 20–26, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%43%45%12%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 1] July 19–25, 2022500 (LV)± 4.9%44%45%11%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
GBAO (D) [upper-alpha 2] October 9, 202246%49%5%

Results

2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabe Vasquez 96,986 50.3
Republican Yvette Herrell (incumbent)95,63649.6
Democratic Eliseo Luna (write-in)510.0
Total votes192,673 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 3

2022 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2020
2024  
  Teresa Leger Fernandez 117th U.S Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Teresa Leger Fernandez Alexis Martinez Johnson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote134,22096,565
Percentage58.2%41.8%

2022 Congressional Election in New Mexico's 3rd District.svg
County results
Leger Fernandez:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Martinez Johnson:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Teresa Leger Fernandez
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Teresa Leger Fernandez
Democratic

The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities of Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, and Clovis, as well as parts of the Navajo Nation. [14] The incumbent is Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020. [15]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent)46,940 100.0
Total votes46,940 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Alexis Martinez Johnson, environmental engineer, rancher, and nominee for this district in 2020 [58]
Disqualified
  • Jerald Steve McFall, farmer [18]

Results

Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson 28,729 100.0
Total votes28,729 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [29] Likely DApril 27, 2022
Inside Elections [30] Solid DAugust 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Likely DApril 27, 2022
Politico [32] Lean DApril 18, 2022
RCP [33] Lean DNovember 1, 2022
Fox News [34] Likely DJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ [35] Likely DJuly 20, 2022
538 [36] Solid DSeptember 30, 2022
The Economist [37] Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Alexis Martinez Johnson (R)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Teresa Leger
Fernandez (D)
Alexis Martinez
Johnson (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022326 (LV)± 5.4%53%40%1% [lower-alpha 7] 7%
58%40%1% [lower-alpha 8]
Research & Polling Inc. October 20–27, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%53%35%10%

Results

2022 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent)134,217 58.2
Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson96,56541.8
Total votes230,782 100.0
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 2%
  3. "Someone else" with 3%
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 2%
  7. "Someone else" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Vasquez's campaign
  2. This poll was sponsored by the House Majority PAC

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