2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming's at-large district
Flag of Wyoming.svg
←  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  →
Turnout66.6% Decrease2.svg
  Official-harriet-hageman-wy00 (cropped).jpg Lynnette Grey Bull on Jenerational Change (cropped).png
Nominee Harriet Hageman Lynnette Grey Bull
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote132,20647,250
Percentage68.18%24.37%
2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming results map by county.svg
County results

Hageman:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Grey Bull:     40–50%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Liz Cheney
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Harriet Hageman
Republican

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Wyoming was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district . The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

Contents

Although incumbent Republican Liz Cheney had been reelected with 68.6% of the vote in 2020, [1] she faced backlash from her party for her opposition to Donald Trump, vocal support of Trump's second impeachment, and vote in favor and service on the January 6th Committee. She was defeated by pro-Trump candidate Harriet Hageman in the Republican primary on August 16, 2022, [2] with a landslide 66.3% of the vote going to Hageman. Cheney's margin of defeat marked the second-worst for a House incumbent in the last 60 years, behind that of South Carolina Republican Bob Inglis in a 2010 primary runoff. [3] Democrats nominated nonprofit founder Lynnette Grey Bull, who was also their nominee in 2020.

As expected in the solidly Republican state of Wyoming, Hageman won in a landslide. However, Grey Bull did manage to flip Albany County, which she had lost in 2020.

Background

Incumbent Liz Cheney was criticized by supporters of former president Donald Trump for her vote to impeach him, as well as refusing to object to the certification of the Electoral College results in the 2020 presidential election. [4] Following her impeachment vote, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz appeared at a rally at the Wyoming State Capitol in support of ousting Cheney, with Donald Trump Jr. also supporting it by phone in January 2021. [5] For the same reason, the Wyoming Republican Party later voted to censure her and requested that she resign or be primaried in the next election. Later that year, it also voted 31–29 to no longer recognize Cheney as a member due to her actions to participate in the January 6 Select Committee shortly after being removed as Conference Chair. [6] [7]

In February 2021, members of the Freedom Caucus attempted to have Cheney removed from her position as Chair of the House Republican Conference in response to her impeachment vote. In a secret ballot, 61 members of the conference voted to remove, while 145 voted not to remove. Cheney retained her position in large part because of the support by these Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise. [8] [9] Eventually, however, Cheney's continued criticism of Trump lost her support by more Republicans, including McCarthy and Scalise, and McCarthy was caught on a hot mic saying "I've had it with her" in reference to Cheney. On May 12, 2021, Cheney was removed from her position as conference chair by a voice vote and replaced with Elise Stefanik. [9]

On May 21, 2021, challenger Anthony Bouchard admitted that as a teenager he fell in love with and started dating a 14-year-old girl who he subsequently impregnated and then married. Bouchard was 18 at the time. He claimed he went public with the story because he had learned that it was being investigated by others, though the Cheney campaign denied investigating it. He compared his relationship with the unnamed girl to "the Romeo and Juliet story." The two were married but divorced three years later, and she committed suicide at age 20. Bouchard continued to raise their son after her death, though he says the two are now estranged. [10] [11]

Cheney and Adam Kinzinger were censured by the Republican National Committee at its meeting in Salt Lake City on February 4, 2022, due to "actions in their positions as members of the January 6th Select Committee not befitting Republican members of Congress". The Wyoming delegation to the committee also submitted a "Rule 11" letter formalizing support for challenger Harriet Hageman and allowing the RNC to spend money allocated for Wyoming's party branch on her behalf. At the same time, support of Hageman surged following the censure of Cheney. [12] [13] Hageman has referred to Donald Trump as "racist and xenophobic" and also called him "the weakest candidate" during the 2016 presidential election; at the same time Hageman endorsed Cheney and called her a "proven, courageous, constitutional conservative." [14] [15]

Following Cheney's defeat, she called Hageman to concede the race. However, Hageman alleged that Cheney only left two words: "Hi Harriet". This prompted Cheney to release the full audio recording of the call which showed that she did, in fact, concede the race. The Hageman camp asserted that a technical glitch was at fault. [16]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Incumbent U.S. Representative Liz Cheney lost the primary. Liz Cheney official 116th Congress portrait (cropped).jpg
Incumbent U.S. Representative Liz Cheney lost the primary.

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Map of endorsements by Republican members of the 117th United States Congress (by congressional district): .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Wyoming Cheney (including Democratic representatives Dean Phillips, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Tom Malinowski) Hageman 2022 Wyoming House Race Endorsements.svg
Map of endorsements by Republican members of the 117th United States Congress (by congressional district):
  Wyoming
  Cheney
(including Democratic representatives Dean Phillips, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Tom Malinowski)
  Hageman
Anthony Bouchard

Individuals

Liz Cheney

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

Individuals

Organizations

Harriet Hageman

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State and local officials

  • John Bear, state representative for the 31st district (2021–present) [56]
  • Scott Clem, former state representative for the 31st district (2015–2021) [56]
  • Timothy Hallinan, state representative for the 32nd district (2007–2011, 2017–present) [56]
  • Marti Halverson, former state representative for the 22nd district (2013–2019) [56]
  • Jeremy Haroldson, state representative for the 4th district (2021–present) [56]
  • Hans Hunt, former state representative for 2nd district (2011–2021) [56]
  • Bill McIlvain, former Speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives (1989–1991) and state representative (1969–1973, 1977–1990) [56]
  • Chip Neiman, state representative for the 1st district (2021–present) [56]
  • Tom Reeder, former state senator for the 58th district (2011–2017) [56]
  • Rachel Rodriguez-Williams, state representative for the 50th district (2021–present) [56]
  • Tim Salazar, state senator for the 26th district (2021–present) and former state representative for the 34th district (2017–2021) [56]
  • Cheri Steinmetz, state senator for the 3rd district (2019–present) and former state representative for the 5th district (2015–2019) [56]
  • Clarence Styvar, state representative for the 12th district (2018–present) [56]
  • J. D. Williams, state representative for the 2nd district (2021–present) [56]

Individuals

Organizations

Chuck Gray (withdrawn)

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Individuals

Debates and forums

Wyoming PBS has had a tradition of hosting one debate for each for the Democratic and Republican primaries for all candidates on the ballot in their respective primaries, as well as one general election debate for all candidates on the ballot. All Republican candidates on the ballot who did not withdraw were included in the sole debate. This debate was not open to the public, but was open to media outlets. [71] Due to Liz Cheney's role as Vice Chair in the hearings for the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack which were broadcast, different MSNBC hosts would later show debate clips of her defending her work in the committee. [72]

2022 Wyoming Republican U.S. Representative primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn
Liz Cheney Robyn Belinskey Anthony Bouchard Harriet Hageman Denton Knapp Chuck Gray Bryan MillerDarin Smith
1June 30, 2022 Wyoming PBS Bob Beck
Steve Peck
Craig Blumenshine
Steven Dahl		 [73] PPPPPWWW

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Anthony
Bouchard		Liz
Cheney		Harriet
Hageman		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [74] July 7 – August 6, 2022August 12, 20223.5%29.0%54.5%13.0%Hageman +25.5

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Anthony
Bouchard		Liz
Cheney		Chuck
Gray		Harriet
Hageman		Darin
Smith		OtherUndecided
University of Wyoming [75] July 25 – August 6, 2022562 (LV)± 4.1%2%28%–57%–1% [c] 12%
WPA Intelligence (R) [76] [A] July 12–14, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%5% [d] 31% [d] –59% [d] ––5% [d]
5% [e] 36% [e] –54% [e] ––5% [e]
5% [f] 39% [f] –51% [f] ––5% [f]
Mason-Dixon [77] July 7–11, 20221,100 (LV)± 3.0%5%30%–52%–2% [g] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [78] [B] June 1–2, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%8%28%–56%–<1% [h] 7%
WPA Intelligence (R) [79] [A] May 24–25, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%12%26%–56%––6%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [78] [B] December 14–15, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%13%26%–34%–2% [i] 26%
September 14, 2021Gray suspends his campaign
September 9, 2021Smith withdraws and endorses Hageman
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [80] [C] July 26, 2021300 (LV)± 5.6%17%23%18%–7%5% [j] 30%
–23%25%–14%–39%
–24%63%–––14%
Remington Research Group (R) [81] [D] July 25–26, 2021766 (LV)± 3.3%18%19%14%–24%–25%
–20%––70%–10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [82] [E] January 25–26, 2021– (LV) [k] –28%21%17%–––34%
50%23%––––27%
–23%50%–––27%

Results

Results by county: Hageman 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Cheney 50-60% 70-80% 2022 United States House of Representatives Republican primary election in Wyoming results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Hageman
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Cheney
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results August 16, 2022 [83]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Harriet Hageman 113,079 66.3%
Republican Liz Cheney (incumbent)49,33928.9%
Republican Anthony Bouchard 4,5082.6%
Republican Denton Knapp2,2581.3%
Republican Robyn Belinskey1,3060.8%
Total votes170,490 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Debates and forums

2022 Wyoming Democratic U.S. Representative primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn
Lynnette Grey BullMeghan JensenSteve Helling
1August 4, 2022 Wyoming PBS Bob Beck
Steve Peck
Craig Blumenshine		 [84] PPP

Results

Results by county: Grey Bull 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2022 United States House of Representatives Democratic primary election in Wyoming results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Grey Bull
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results August 16, 2022 [83]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Lynnette Grey Bull 4,507 62.3
Democratic Meghan Jensen1,83325.3
Democratic Steve Helling89712.4
Total votes7,237 100.0

Independent and third-party candidates

Constitution Party

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Failed to qualify for ballot

General election

In the general election, Hageman faced Democratic nominee and Native American activist Lynnette Grey Bull, who was Cheney's opponent in 2020. However, Hageman was overwhelmingly favored in November. [89] Republicans had a nearly 7-to-1 advantage in registration over Democrats, [90] and Trump carried the state in 2020 with almost 70 percent of the vote, his strongest state-level performance in the nation.

Hageman won the 2022 election. She is the fourth consecutive Republican woman to represent Wyoming in the House. Barbara Cubin won the seat in 1994, followed by Cynthia Lummis in 2008, followed by Cheney in 2016, and followed by Hageman.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [91] Solid ROctober 25, 2022
Inside Elections [92] Solid ROctober 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] Safe ROctober 5, 2021
Politico [94] Solid RApril 5, 2022
RCP [95] Safe RJune 9, 2022
Fox News [96] Solid RJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ [97] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [98] Solid RJune 30, 2022

Debate

2022 Wyoming U.S. House of Representatives debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic Libertarian Constitution
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Harriet Hageman Lynette Grey BullRichard BrubakerMarissa Selvig
1 [99] Oct. 13, 2022 Central Wyoming College
Wyoming PBS
Wyoming Public Media 		Craig Blumenshine [100] APPP

Endorsements

Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Harriet
Hageman (R)		Lynnette
Grey Bull (D)		OthersUndecided
University of Wyoming [102] October 22 – November 3, 2022436 (LV)–62%23%4% [l] 11%

Results

2022 Wyoming's at-large congressional district election [103]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Harriet Hageman 132,206 68.18% −0.37
Democratic Lynnette Grey Bull 47,25024.37%−0.22
Libertarian Richard Brubaker5,4202.80%−0.95
Write-in 4,5212.33%+1.14
Constitution Marissa Selvig4,5052.32%−0.60
Total votes193,902 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
By county
County Harriet Hageman
Republican 		Lynnette Grey Bull
Democratic 		Richard Brubaker
Libertarian 		Marissa Selvig
Constitution 		Write-inMarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Albany 5,69945.176,08548.233062.432141.703132.48-3863.0612,617
Big Horn 3,44981.4650411.90972.291082.55761.792,94569.564,234
Campbell 10,44684.071,2159.783202.582682.161771.429,23174.2912,426
Carbon 3,43473.3389219.051703.631262.69611.302,54254.284,683
Converse 4,04480.0060211.911292.552094.13711.403,44268.095,055
Crook 2,81485.823069.33692.10511.56391.192,50876.493,279
Fremont 8,53963.663,51926.234203.136865.112501.865,02037.4313,414
Goshen 3,83579.0476615.79861.77761.57891.833,06963.254,852
Hot Springs 1,64175.3136716.84552.52743.40421.931,27458.472,179
Johnson 3,00377.8260115.571002.59611.58942.442,40262.253,859
Laramie 17,53958.919,57232.159143.078632.908832.977,96726.7629,771
Lincoln 6,11881.6999813.331592.121121.501021.365,12068.367,489
Natrona 15,39968.695,23523.356562.934782.136492.9010,16445.3422,417
Niobrara 93686.43756.93161.48393.60171.5786179.501,083
Park 9,65876.221,92215.173132.472161.705624.447,73661.0512,671
Platte 3,10778.1860315.17812.041182.97651.642,50463.013,974
Sheridan 8,49770.332,70422.383122.582181.803512.915,79347.9512,082
Sublette 2,76877.9760417.01712.00481.35591.662,16460.963,550
Sweetwater 8,36270.712,55521.604934.172251.901911.625,80749.1111,826
Teton 2,95729.386,44764.053353.33670.672592.57-3,490-34.6710,065
Uinta 5,11978.1898715.071782.721612.461031.575,26057.769,107
Washakie 2,43080.0443514.33933.06431.42351.151,99565.713,036
Weston 2,41286.392569.17471.68441.58331.182,15677.222,792
Totals132,20668.1847,25024.375,4202.804,5052.324,5212.3384,95643.81193,902

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Knapp with 1%; Belinskey with 0%
  4. 1 2 3 4 Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 13% of primary voters
  5. 1 2 3 4 Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 20% of primary voters
  6. 1 2 3 4 Turnout scenario with registered Democrats as 25% of primary voters
  7. ↑ Belinskey and Knapp with 1%
  8. ↑ Belinskey and Knapp with <1%
  9. ↑ Belinskey and Knapp with 1%
  10. ↑ Buchanan with 3%, Biteman with 2%
  11. ↑ Republican primary subsample of a poll of 500 likely general election voters (margin of error ± 4.4%)
  12. ↑ Richard Brubaker (L) with 3%; Marissa Selvig (C) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which opposes Cheney
  2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Wyoming Values PAC, which supports Hageman
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Gray's campaign
  4. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Smith's campaign
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC

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References

  1. ↑ "Statewide Candidates Official Summary Wyoming General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 27, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ↑ Wyoming Secretary of State. "Key Election Dates" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  3. ↑ Enten, Harry (August 17, 2022). "Cheney's loss may be the second worst for a House incumbent in 60 years". CNN. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
  4. ↑ "Liz Cheney suffers impeachment vote blowback at home: 'Couldn't win a primary today for dog catcher'". The Washington Times . Archived from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  5. ↑ Reynolds, Nick (January 25, 2021). "Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz coming to Wyoming as anti-Cheney effort grows". Casper Star-Tribune Online. Archived from the original on January 25, 2021. Retrieved April 11, 2021.
  6. ↑ Ruwitch, John; Sprunt, Barbara (February 6, 2021). "Wyoming GOP Censures Liz Cheney For Voting To Impeach Trump". NPR. Archived from the original on June 20, 2022. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  7. ↑ Crane, Emily (November 16, 2021). "Wyoming GOP won't recognize Liz Cheney as member over anti-Trump stance". New York Post. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 23, 2022.
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  13. ↑ "RESOLUTION TO FORMALLY CENSURE LIZ CHENEY AND ADAM KINZINGER AND TO NO LONGER SUPPORT THEM AS MEMBERS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY" (PDF). New York Times. February 4, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 4, 2022. Retrieved March 23, 2022.
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  15. ↑ "Harriet Hageman once rebuked Trump and endorsed Liz Cheney. She's now challenging her with his support". CNN. Archived from the original on August 14, 2022. Retrieved August 14, 2022.
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