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Schumer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pinion: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New York State |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in New York was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New York.
Incumbent four-term Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer, who has served as Senate Majority Leader since 2021, was first elected in 1998, defeating Republican incumbent Al D'Amato. Schumer ran for a fifth term. Republican Joe Pinion is the first black Senate nominee of any major party in New York history. The filing deadline for the June primary was April 7, 2022. [1] Schumer became the longest-serving U.S. senator in the state's history once his fifth term began in the 118th Congress. [2]
Though Schumer was comfortably re-elected, he lost significant support on Long Island and Upstate New York compared to his last election in 2016. Pinion flipped the more conservative counties that Schumer had won in his previous runs, as well as some Democratic-leaning counties such as Nassau, Saratoga, Broome, Clinton, and Essex. However, Schumer's lead was large enough in New York City that it was called by most media outlets the moment the polls closed. [3]
Despite Democrats overperforming expectations on a national level during this cycle, this race was the most competitive in Schumer's Senate career since his first election in 1998, when he won by 10.5%, along with being the closest U.S. Senate election from New York since Hillary Clinton won by about 12.3 percentage points in 2000. This was due to a Democratic underperformance in New York state despite their overperformance nationally, and Schumer's performance was still the highest margin (aside from Thomas DiNapoli in the concurrent comptroller election) on the statewide ballot.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Chuck Schumer | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics | May 7–9, 2020 | 328 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 54% | 21% | 25% |
At the 2022 New York State Republican Convention, Joe Pinion was designated as the New York State Republican Party's preferred candidate for U.S. Senate. Pinion became the first Black individual to be backed by a major party in a U.S. Senate election in New York. [23]
Diane Sare ran on an Independent ballot line labeled "LaRouche." [34] [35]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [36] | Solid D | November 19, 2021 |
Inside Elections [37] | Solid D | January 7, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [38] | Safe D | November 3, 2021 |
Politico [39] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [40] | Likely D | October 18, 2022 |
Fox News [41] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [42] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
538 [43] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist [44] | Solid D | September 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Chuck Schumer (D) | Joe Pinion (R) | Undecided [lower-alpha 2] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 26–31, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.7% | 39.3% | 6.0% | Schumer +15.4 |
FiveThirtyEight | October 12 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 55.7% | 38.0% | 6.3% | Schumer +17.7 |
270towin | October 26 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.6% | 38.6% | 6.8% | Schumer +16.0 |
Average | 55.0% | 38.6% | 6.4% | Schumer +16.4 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Chuck Schumer (D) | Joe Pinion (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 37% | 2% [lower-alpha 3] | 6% |
ActiVote (D) | August 8 – November 6, 2022 | 279 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 36% | 3% [lower-alpha 4] | 6% |
57% | 39% | 4% [lower-alpha 5] | – | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,198 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 40% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] | 4% |
KAConsulting (R) [upper-alpha 1] | October 27–29, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | – | 7% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 26–28, 2022 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
Long Island University | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,001 (A) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 27% | 9% [lower-alpha 7] | 10% |
Civiqs | October 22–25, 2022 | 593 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 56% | 41% | 1% [lower-alpha 8] | 2% |
Emerson College | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 36% | 6% [lower-alpha 9] | 8% |
53% | 40% | 8% [lower-alpha 10] | – | ||||
SurveyUSA | October 14–18, 2022 | 702 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 52% | 38% | 4% | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | October 12–16, 2022 | 1,617 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 54% | 42% | 1% [lower-alpha 11] | 3% |
Siena College | October 12–14, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 37% | 1% [lower-alpha 12] | 5% |
Marist College | October 3–6, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | 1% [lower-alpha 13] | 8% |
1,117 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 34% | 1% [lower-alpha 14] | 11% | ||
Siena College | September 16–25, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 36% | 1% [lower-alpha 15] | 8% |
Emerson College | September 4–6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 31% | 5% [lower-alpha 16] | 9% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 7–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | – | 13% |
Emerson College | July 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 31% | 7% | 8% |
Siena College | July 24–28, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 35% | 0% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Chuck Schumer (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 7–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Chuck Schumer | 3,022,822 | 51.69% | -13.03% | |
Working Families | Chuck Schumer | 297,739 | 5.09% | +1.82% | |
Total | Chuck Schumer (incumbent) | 3,320,561 | 56.78% | -13.86% | |
Republican | Joe Pinion | 2,204,499 | 37.69% | +14.37% | |
Conservative | Joe Pinion | 296,652 | 5.07% | +1.45% | |
Total | Joe Pinion | 2,501,151 | 42.76% | +15.58% | |
LaRouche | Diane Sare | 26,844 | 0.46% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,848,556 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
Schumer won 19 of 26 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans. [55]
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