2022 United States Senate election in New York

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2022 United States Senate election in New York
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  Chuck Schumer official photo (3x4a).jpg Joe.pinion.nygop (cropped).jpg
Nominee Chuck Schumer Joe Pinion
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Popular vote3,320,5612,501,151
Percentage56.78%42.76%
2022 United States Senate election in New York results map by county.svg
2022NYSenatebyUSHouse.svg
NY Senate 2022.svg
Schumer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pinion:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in New York was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New York.

Contents

Incumbent four-term Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer, who had served as Senate Majority Leader since 2021, was first elected in 1998, defeating Republican incumbent Al D'Amato. Schumer ran for a fifth term. Republican Joe Pinion is the first black Senate nominee of any major party in New York history. The filing deadline for the June primary was April 7, 2022. [1] Schumer became the longest-serving U.S. senator in the state's history once his fifth term began in the 118th Congress. [2]

Though Schumer was comfortably re-elected by a margin of 14.02%, he lost significant support on Long Island and Upstate New York compared to his last election in 2016. Pinion flipped the more conservative counties that Schumer had won in his previous runs, as well as some Democratic-leaning counties such as Nassau, Saratoga, Broome, Clinton, and Essex. However, Schumer's lead was large enough in New York City that it was called by most media outlets the moment the polls closed. [3]

Despite Democrats overperforming expectations on a national level during this cycle, this race was the most competitive in Schumer's Senate career since his first election in 1998, when he won by 10.5%, along with being the closest U.S. Senate election from New York since Hillary Clinton won by about 12.3 percentage points in 2000. This was due to a Democratic underperformance in New York state despite their overperformance nationally, and Schumer's performance was still the highest margin (aside from Thomas DiNapoli in the concurrent comptroller election) on the statewide ballot.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • Moses Mugulusi, regulator [5]
  • Khaled Salem, activist [6]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Chuck
Schumer		Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez		Undecided
Zogby Analytics [23] May 7–9, 2020328 (LV)± 5.4%54%21%25%

Republican primary

At the 2022 New York State Republican Convention, Joe Pinion was designated as the New York State Republican Party's preferred candidate for U.S. Senate. Pinion became the first Black individual to be backed by a major party in a U.S. Senate election in New York. [24]

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Pinion
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Conservative primary

Candidates

Nominee

Working Families primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chuck Schumer, incumbent U.S. senator [34]

Other candidates

Diane Sare ran on an Independent ballot line labeled "LaRouche." [35] [36]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [37] Solid DNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections [38] Solid DJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Safe DNovember 3, 2021
Politico [40] Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP [41] Likely DOctober 18, 2022
Fox News [42] Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [43] Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538 [44] Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist [45] Solid DSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Joe Pinion (R)
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Chuck
Schumer (D)		Joe
Pinion (R)		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [55] October 26–31, 2022November 8, 202254.7%39.3%6.0%Schumer +15.4
FiveThirtyEight [56] October 12 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202255.7%38.0%6.3%Schumer +17.7
270towin [57] October 26 – November 7, 2022November 8, 202254.6%38.6%6.8%Schumer +16.0
Average55.0%38.6%6.4%Schumer +16.4

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Chuck
Schumer (D)		Joe
Pinion (R)		OtherUndecided
Research Co. [58] November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%55%37%2% [c] 6%
ActiVote (D) [59] August 8 – November 6, 2022279 (LV)± 6.0%60%40%––
Emerson College [60] October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%55%36%3% [d] 6%
57%39%4% [e] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) [61] October 27–31, 20221,198 (LV)± 2.9%51%40%5% [f] 4%
KAConsulting (R) [62] [A] October 27–29, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%50%38%–7%
Data for Progress (D) [63] October 26–28, 2022818 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%–5%
Long Island University [64] October 24–26, 20221,001 (A)± 3.0%54%27%9% [g] 10%
Civiqs [65] October 22–25, 2022593 (LV)± 5.0%56%41%1% [h] 2%
Emerson College [60] October 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%36%6% [i] 8%
53%40%8% [j] –
SurveyUSA [66] October 14–18, 2022702 (LV)± 5.4%52%38%4%6%
Quinnipiac University [67] October 12–16, 20221,617 (LV)± 2.4%54%42%1% [k] 3%
Siena College [68] October 12–14, 2022707 (LV)± 4.9%57%37%1% [l] 5%
Marist College [69] October 3–6, 2022900 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%1% [m] 8%
1,117 (RV)± 4.0%54%34%1% [n] 11%
Siena College [70] September 16–25, 2022655 (LV)± 3.9%55%36%1% [o] 8%
Emerson College [71] September 4–6, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%55%31%5% [p] 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [72] August 7–9, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%51%36%–13%
Emerson College [73] July 26–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%31%7%8%
Siena College [74] July 24–28, 2022806 (LV)± 3.5%56%35%0%8%
Hypothetical polling

Chuck Schumer vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Chuck
Schumer (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [72] August 7–9, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%42%48%10%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in New York [75]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Chuck Schumer 3,022,82251.69%−13.03%
Working Families Chuck Schumer 297,7395.09%+1.82%
Total Chuck Schumer (incumbent)3,320,56156.78%−13.86%
Republican Joe Pinion2,204,49937.69%+14.37%
Conservative Joe Pinion296,6525.07%+1.45%
Total Joe Pinion 2,501,15142.76%+15.58%
LaRouche Diane Sare26,8440.46%N/A
Total votes5,848,556 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Schumer won 19 of 26 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans. [76]

DistrictSchumerPinionRepresentative
1st 45%54% Lee Zeldin (117th Congress)
Nick LaLota (118th Congress)
2nd 42%58% Andrew Garbarino
3rd 48%52% Tom Suozzi (117th Congress)
George Santos (118th Congress)
4th 50%49% Kathleen Rice (117th Congress)
Anthony D'Esposito (118th Congress)
5th 76%23% Gregory Meeks
6th 60%39% Grace Meng
7th 81%18% Nydia Velázquez
8th 73%27% Hakeem Jeffries
9th 74%25% Yvette Clarke
10th 85%15%Jerry Nadler (117th Congress)
Dan Goldman (118th Congress)
11th 40%60% Nicole Malliotakis
12th 83%16% Carolyn Maloney (117th Congress)
Jerry Nadler (118th Congress)
13th 89%11% Adriano Espaillat
14th 74%26% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15th 83%17% Ritchie Torres
16th 66%33% Jamaal Bowman
17th 52%48% Mondaire Jones (117th Congress)
Mike Lawler (118th Congress)
18th 51%48% Sean Patrick Maloney (117th Congress)
Pat Ryan (118th Congress)
19th 50%49% Pat Ryan (117th Congress)
Marc Molinaro (118th Congress)
20th 56%43% Paul Tonko
21st 41%58% Elise Stefanik
22nd 52%48% Claudia Tenney (117th Congress)
Brandon Williams (118th Congress)
23rd 39%60% Joe Sempolinski (117th Congress)
Nick Langworthy (118th Congress)
24th 38%61% John Katko (117th Congress)
Claudia Tenney (118th Congress)
25th 56%43% Joseph Morelle
26th 60%39% Brian Higgins

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  4. ↑ Sare (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  5. ↑ Sare (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%
  6. ↑ Sare (I) with 5%
  7. ↑ "Not planning to vote" with 6%; "Another candidate" with 3%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Sare (I) with 2%
  10. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%; Sare (I) with 2%
  11. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  12. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 0%
  13. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  14. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  15. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.

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References

  1. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (April 20, 2020). "Does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have her eye on a Senate seat?". CNN Politics .
  2. ↑ Matthews, Karen; Hajela, Deepti. "New York's Schumer keeps Senate seat, but majority role up for grabs". www.timesofisrael.com. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ↑ McKinley, Jesse (November 9, 2022). "Tough N.Y. Election Holds Lessons for Republicans and Democrats Alike". The New York Times . ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  4. ↑ Glueck, Katie (February 17, 2022). "Hochul is the Star as Democrats Gather for a Cuomo-Free Convention". The New York Times .
  5. ↑ "Moses Mugulusi". Ballotpedia . Archived from the original on September 11, 2021.
  6. ↑ "New York Senate candidate encourages Americans to protest Hamas". The Jerusalem Post . June 5, 2021. Archived from the original on August 29, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  7. ↑ Murphy, Dan (February 7, 2022). "Reports: Biaggi to Announce Run for Congress in NY-3; Sound Shore Long Island & West". Yonkers Times. Retrieved February 7, 2022.
  8. ↑ Eidler, Scott (February 7, 2022). "State Sen. Biaggi joins crowded race for Suozzi's seat in Congress". Newsday. Retrieved February 7, 2022.
  9. 1 2 3 Otterbein, Holly (February 1, 2021). "Schumer quietly nails down the left amid AOC primary chatter". Politico . Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  10. ↑ Axelrod, Tal (May 28, 2019). "Cuomo says he'll run for fourth term as NY governor". The Hill . Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  11. ↑ Connolly, Griffin (January 4, 2021). "AOC won't say whether she'll mount primary challenge against Chuck Schumer" . The Independent . Archived from the original on January 4, 2021.
  12. ↑ Krieg, Gregory (August 8, 2021). "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez does not rule out 2022 challenge to Chuck Schumer". CNN . Archived from the original on August 29, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  13. ↑ Ngo, Emily. "Schumer's path to reelection paved with campaign cash and statewide stops". www.ny1.com. Retrieved February 2, 2022. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had been floated as a Schumer challenger, but her spokeswoman told NY1 she has filed for reelection and is ruling out seeking his seat.
  14. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (October 27, 2021). "Jumaane Williams makes run for New York governor official". The Hill . Retrieved November 4, 2021.
  15. 1 2 Reisman, Nick (February 15, 2022). "Sen. Schumer and AG James endorse each other". Spectrum News.
  16. 1 2 Reisman, Nick (January 13, 2022). "CSEA endorse, DiNapoli and Schumer for re-election". Spectrum News . Retrieved February 14, 2022.
  17. 1 2 "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  18. 1 2 "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  19. 1 2 Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections" . Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  20. 1 2 "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
  21. 1 2 Reisman, Nick (December 13, 2021). "Schumer, DiNapoli receive early labor endorsement". spectrumlocalnews.com.
  22. 1 2 "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2022.
  23. ↑ Zogby Analytics
  24. ↑ Gronewald, Anna; Mahoney, Bill (February 28, 2022). "New York Republicans talk inclusion with a diverse slate at convention". Politico . Retrieved March 1, 2022.
  25. 1 2 Whalen, Ryan (January 27, 2022). "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Pinion visits WNY". Spectrum News 1. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
  26. 1 2 Taddeo, Sarah (March 1, 2022). "Republican Joe Pinion secures GOP designation for historic bid against Schumer". Democrat and Chronicle.
  27. ↑ Saric, Ivana (April 7, 2021). "Andrew Giuliani says he plans to run for New York governor". Axios . Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  28. ↑ Zanona, Melanie (January 14, 2022). "Third House Republican who voted to impeach Trump calls it quits". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2022.
  29. ↑ "GOP Rep. Tom Reed apologizes, announces retirement amid misconduct claim". NBC News . Associated Press. March 22, 2021. Archived from the original on May 14, 2021. Retrieved May 14, 2021. Reed said in his statement Sunday that he would not seek any elective office in 2022.
  30. ↑ Shabad, Rebecca (April 8, 2021). "GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin announces run for governor of New York". NBC News . Retrieved April 8, 2021.
  31. 1 2 "Stefanik endorses Henry for AG, Pinion for Senate". spectrumlocalnews.com.
  32. 1 2 "Endorsement: Joe Pinion for United States Senate (New York)". nyyrc.com. New York Young Republican Club. June 7, 2022. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
  33. ↑ Williams, Zach (February 26, 2022). "Political right highlights 2022 talking points at Conservative Party convention". City & State NY.
  34. ↑ Reisman, Nick (February 22, 2022). "Working Families Party endorses Schumer's re-election". SpectrumLocalNews.com.
  35. ↑ "NYSBOE: Public Reporting System : Who Filed".
  36. ↑ "United States Senate election in New York, 2022".
  37. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report . Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  38. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  39. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  40. ↑ "New York Senate Race 2022". Politico . April 1, 2022.
  41. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. October 18, 2022.
  42. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  43. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  44. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  45. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist . September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  46. ↑ Fandos, Nicholas (November 4, 2022). "Biden Will Campaign for Gov. Hochul in New York on Sunday". The New York Times . Archived from the original on November 5, 2022. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
  47. ↑ "Lin-Manuel Miranda cuts Broadway-focused ad for Schumer's reelection bid". October 17, 2022.
  48. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 "Chuck Schumer's Ratings and Endorsements - Vote Smart". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  49. ↑ "Congressional Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
  50. ↑ "The Editorial Board: Schumer for U.S. Senate". October 28, 2022.
  51. ↑ "Editorial endorsement: Reelect Charles Schumer to the U.S. Senate". October 23, 2022.
  52. ↑ "Editorial: Schumer for U.S. Senate". Times Union. October 28, 2022. Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  53. ↑ "Endorsements". newyorkfcr.org. New York Federation of College Republicans . Retrieved July 30, 2022.
  54. ↑ "🚨Key Endorsement Alert🚨 🚔 Honored to have the full support of The State Troopers. -> @nyspolice It's time to stand with law enforcement again.🗽 Together, we will fix New York. 🇺🇸 Together, we will save America #onward #backtheblue". Twitter . September 16, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  55. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  56. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  57. ↑ 270towin
  58. ↑ Research Co.
  59. ↑ ActiVote (D)
  60. 1 2 Emerson College
  61. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  62. ↑ KAConsulting (R)
  63. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  64. ↑ Long Island University
  65. ↑ Civiqs
  66. ↑ SurveyUSA
  67. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  68. ↑ Siena College
  69. ↑ Marist College
  70. ↑ Siena College
  71. ↑ Emerson College
  72. 1 2 McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  73. ↑ Emerson College
  74. ↑ Siena College
  75. ↑ "2022 General Election Results — Certified December 15, 2022". New York State Board of Elections .
  76. ↑ New York 2022 Governor/US Senator Election Results By Congressional District (Greg Giroux). docs.google.com (Report).

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