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Turnout | 50.96% 5.19 pp | |||||||||||||||||||
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Pritzker: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bailey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: No Vote: | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Illinois |
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The 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Illinois, concurrently with the 2022 Illinois general election. Gubernatorial candidates ran on tickets with candidates for lieutenant governor. The incumbent governor and lieutenant governor, first-term Democrats J. B. Pritzker and Juliana Stratton, sought re-election together against Republican nominees Illinois State Senator Darren Bailey and his running mate Stephanie Trussell.
On election day, Pritzker won re-election with 54.9% of the vote, 0.4% higher than his 2018 performance, and the best raw vote percentage for a Democrat for governor since 1960. However, his margin of victory declined from 15.7% in 2018 to just 12.5% in 2022. Pritzker's victory was once again the result of a strong performance in the Chicago metropolitan area—containing a majority of the state's population—winning a lopsided victory in strongly Democratic Cook County, the home of Chicago, as well as winning all but one of the neighboring collar counties. Bailey improved upon former Republican governor Bruce Rauner's performance in 2018 by just under 4%, largely due to the absence of a strong third-party conservative candidate that appeared in 2018. Subsequently, Bailey was able to flip the counties of Alexander, Fulton, Jackson, Knox, and Winnebago which Pritzker previously won, while Pritzker managed to flip McLean county, marking the first time since 1948 that it has voted for a Democrat in a gubernatorial election.
Pritzker was the first Illinois governor to serve a full term and be reelected for a second since Rod Blagojevich in 2006. If Pritzker serves the entirety of his term, he would become the first Democratic governor in the state's history to serve two full four-year terms, as every other Democratic governor had either been impeached, died or resigned before finishing their second term.
The primaries and general elections will coincide with those for federal congressional races, the state's U.S. Senate race, and those for other state offices. The election will be part of the 2022 Illinois elections.
The primary election was held on June 28. [1] The general election was held on November 8, 2022.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
| 810,989 | 91.88% | |
Democratic |
| 71,704 | 8.12% | |
Total votes | 882,693 | 100.0% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Darren Bailey | Richard Irvin | Gary Rabine | Paul Schimpf | Max Solomon | Jesse Sullivan | Other [lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | June 6–13, 2022 | June 15, 2022 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 11.5% | 22.0% | Bailey +16.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Darren Bailey | Richard Irvin | Gary Rabine | Paul Schimpf | Max Solomon | Jesse Sullivan | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ogden & Fry (R) | June 24, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 17% | – | 20% |
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | June 20–22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 14% | 7% | 4% | <1% | 17% | 1% [lower-alpha 3] | 18% |
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] | June 14–15, 2022 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 27% | – | 26% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 12% | – | 16% |
Ogden & Fry (R) | June 11–12, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 11% | – | 30% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | June 6–7, 2022 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 32% | 17% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 11% | – | 27% |
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | June 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 3% | – | 13% | – | 24% |
1892 Polling (R) [upper-alpha 3] | May 24–25, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 25% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% | – | 22% |
Emerson College | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% | – | 37% |
Cor Strategies (R) | April 29 – May 2, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 21% | 33% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 10% | – | 25% |
Cor Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] | April 18–21, 2022 | 536 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 13% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 2% [lower-alpha 4] | 38% |
Cor Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] | ~February 11, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 11% | – | 44% |
Ogden & Fry (R) | October 3–4, 2021 | 404 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 33% | – | 5% | 3% | – | 6% | 3% | 49% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican |
| 458,102 | 57.48% | |
Republican |
| 125,094 | 15.70% | |
Republican | 119,592 | 15.00% | ||
Republican |
| 52,194 | 6.55% | |
Republican |
| 34,676 | 4.35% | |
Republican |
| 7,371 | 0.92% | |
Total votes | 797,029 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [55] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [56] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [57] | Safe D | June 29, 2022 |
Politico [58] | Likely D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [59] | Lean D | October 26, 2022 |
Fox News [60] | Solid D | August 22, 2022 |
538 [61] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
Elections Daily [62] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | J.B Pritzker (D) | Darren Bailey (R) | Scott Schluter (L) | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight | June 21– November 8, 2022 | 56.1% | 39.9% | 4.8% | Pritzker +16.2 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Darren Bailey (R) | Scott Schluter (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 42% | 5% | – | 4% |
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 37% | 2% | – | 5% |
Civiqs | October 22–25, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 39% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 5] | 1% |
Emerson College | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 2% [lower-alpha 6] | 4% |
52% | 42% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 7] | – | ||||
University of Illinois Springfield | October 17 – 25, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 40% | 5% | – | – |
Osage Research (R) [upper-alpha 5] | October 13–15, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 34% | 8% | – | 9% |
Research America | October 5–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 28% | 6% | 4% [lower-alpha 8] | 13% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | September 25–27, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% |
48% | 40% | 3% | – | 8% | ||||
Emerson College | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 36% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 9] | 8% |
Osage Research (R) [upper-alpha 5] | September 8–10, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 13% |
Victory Research (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 36% | 2% | – | 15% |
Victory Geek (D) | August 25–28, 2022 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 38% | – | – | 6% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | August, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 38% | 3% | – | 10% |
52% | 42% | – | – | 6% | ||||
Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 39% | 2% | – | 10% |
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | June 20–21, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | – | 7% |
Victory Research (R) | January 18–20, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 27% | – | – | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Richard Irvin (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | January 18–20, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 53% | 22% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Gary Rabine (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | January 18–20, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 28% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Paul Schimpf (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | January 18–20, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Jesse Sullivan (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | January 18–20, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 53% | 22% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Geek (D) | November 8–10, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | J. B. Pritzker (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R) | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | June 20–21, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | June 20–21, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
J. B. Pritzker | Darren Bailey | |||||
October 6, 2022 | Illinois State University | YouTube | P | P | ||
October 18, 2022 | NewsNation | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
| 2,253,748 | 54.91% | +0.38% | |
Republican |
| 1,739,095 | 42.37% | +3.54% | |
Libertarian |
| 111,712 | 2.72% | +0.32% | |
Write-in | 81 | 0.0% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 4,104,636 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | % | ||||
Democratic hold | |||||
Pritzker won 14 of 17 congressional districts. [85]
District | Pritzker | Bailey | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 68% | 30% | Bobby Rush (117th Congress) |
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress) | |||
2nd | 66% | 32% | Robin Kelly |
3rd | 68% | 29% | Marie Newman (117th Congress) |
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 69% | 29% | Chuy García |
5th | 70% | 28% | Mike Quigley |
6th | 53% | 44% | Sean Casten |
7th | 85% | 13% | Danny Davis |
8th | 55% | 42% | Raja Krishnamoorthi |
9th | 71% | 26% | Jan Schakowsky |
10th | 61% | 35% | Brad Schneider |
11th | 55% | 42% | Bill Foster |
12th | 25% | 72% | Mike Bost |
13th | 53% | 44% | Nikki Budzinski |
14th | 52% | 45% | Lauren Underwood |
15th | 29% | 69% | Mary Miller |
16th | 37% | 60% | Darin LaHood |
17th | 49% | 48% | Cheri Bustos (117th Congress) |
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress) |
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