2022 Illinois gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Illinois gubernatorial election
Flag of Illinois.svg
  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  
Turnout50.96% Decrease2.svg 5.19 pp
  Governor JB Pritzker official portrait 2019 (crop).jpg Darren Bailey at a 2022 Campaign Event (cropped).jpg
Nominee J. B. Pritzker Darren Bailey
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Juliana Stratton Stephanie Trussell
Popular vote2,253,7481,739,095
Percentage54.91%42.37%

2022 Illinois gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Illinois gubernatorial election results map by Congressional District.svg
2022 Illinois gubernatorial election results map by Township.svg
Pritzker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bailey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     
No Vote:     

Governor before election

J. B. Pritzker
Democratic

Elected Governor

J. B. Pritzker
Democratic

The 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Illinois, concurrently with the 2022 Illinois general election. Gubernatorial candidates ran on tickets with candidates for lieutenant governor. The incumbent governor and lieutenant governor, first-term Democrats J. B. Pritzker and Juliana Stratton, sought re-election together against Republican nominees Illinois State Senator Darren Bailey and his running mate Stephanie Trussell.

Contents

On election day, Pritzker won re-election with 54.9% of the vote, 0.4% higher than his 2018 performance, and the best raw vote percentage for a Democrat for governor since 1960. However, his margin of victory declined from 15.7% in 2018 to just 12.5% in 2022. Pritzker's victory was once again the result of a strong performance in the Chicago metropolitan area—containing a majority of the state's population—winning a lopsided victory in strongly Democratic Cook County, the home of Chicago, as well as winning all but one of the neighboring collar counties. Bailey improved upon former Republican governor Bruce Rauner's performance in 2018 by just under 4%, largely due to the absence of a strong third-party conservative candidate that appeared in 2018. Subsequently, Bailey was able to flip the counties of Alexander, Fulton, Jackson, Knox, and Winnebago which Pritzker previously won, while Pritzker managed to flip McLean county, marking the first time since 1948 that it has voted for a Democrat in a gubernatorial election.

Pritzker was the first Illinois governor to serve a full term and be reelected for a second since Rod Blagojevich in 2006. If Pritzker serves the entirety of his term, he would become the first Democratic governor in the state's history to serve two full four-year terms, as every other Democratic governor had either been impeached, died or resigned before finishing their second term.

Election information

The primaries and general elections will coincide with those for federal congressional races, the state's U.S. Senate race, and those for other state offices. The election will be part of the 2022 Illinois elections.

The primary election was held on June 28. [1] The general election was held on November 8, 2022.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Beverly Miles, U.S. Army veteran, registered nurse and activist [3]
    • Running mate: Karla Shaw [4]

Endorsements

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Pritzker
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% 2022 Illinois gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county
  Pritzker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [9] [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic
810,989 91.88%
Democratic
  • Beverly Miles
  • Karla Shaw
71,7048.12%
Total votes882,693 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Removed from ballot

Declined

Endorsements

Darren Bailey
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
  • Illinois Family Action [36]
  • Illinois Federation for Right to Life [37]
  • Illinois Citizens for Life [37]
Richard Irvin
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
U.S. Attorneys
Statewide officeholders
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Labor unions
Gary Rabine
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Local officials
Paul Schimpf
Newspapers
Jesse Sullivan
State legislators
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Darren
Bailey
Richard
Irvin
Gary
Rabine
Paul
Schimpf
Max
Solomon
Jesse
Sullivan
Other
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics June 6–13, 2022June 15, 202235.0%18.5%7.0%4.5%1.5%11.5%22.0%Bailey +16.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Darren
Bailey
Richard
Irvin
Gary
Rabine
Paul
Schimpf
Max
Solomon
Jesse
Sullivan
OtherUndecided
Ogden & Fry (R) June 24, 2022518 (LV)± 4.4%38%13%9%3%1%17%20%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%37%14%7%4%<1%17%1% [lower-alpha 3] 18%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] June 14–15, 2022889 (LV)± 3.0%27%13%8%6%3%27%26%
The Trafalgar Group (R) June 10–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%38%20%8%5%1%12%16%
Ogden & Fry (R) June 11–12, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%31%17%8%3%1%11%30%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 6–7, 2022677 (LV)± 3.8%32%17%6%4%2%11%27%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 3.5%27%20%12%3%13%24%
1892 Polling (R) [upper-alpha 3] May 24–25, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%25%31%8%2%1%11%22%
Emerson College May 6–8, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%20%24%8%2%2%7%37%
Cor Strategies (R) April 29 – May 2, 2022671 (LV)± 3.8%21%33%7%2%3%10%25%
Cor Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] April 18–21, 2022536 (LV)± 4.2%13%30%4%1%2%9%2% [lower-alpha 4] 38%
Cor Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] ~February 11, 2022– (LV)23%10%6%5%1%11%44%
Ogden & Fry (R) October 3–4, 2021404 (LV)± 5.0%33%5%3%6%3%49%

Results

Results by county
Bailey
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
Sullivan
50-60%
Schimpf
40-50% 2022 Illinois gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county
  Bailey
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Sullivan
  •   50–60%
  Schimpf
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [9] [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican
458,102 57.48%
Republican
  • Jesse Sullivan
  • Kathleen Murphy
125,09415.70%
Republican 119,59215.00%
Republican
  • Gary Rabine
  • Aaron Del Mar
52,1946.55%
Republican
34,6764.35%
Republican
  • Max Solomon
  • Latasha H. Fields
7,3710.92%
Total votes797,029 100.0%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominee

  • Scott Schluter, veteran, diesel technician, and chair of the Southern Illinois Libertarian Party [50]
    • Running mate: John Phillips [51]

Withdrew

  • Jon Stewart, former professional wrestler and candidate in 2018 [52]

Other parties and independents

Independents

Declared but never filed

Removed from ballot

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [55] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [56] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [57] Safe DJune 29, 2022
Politico [58] Likely DApril 1, 2022
RCP [59] Lean DOctober 26, 2022
Fox News [60] Solid DAugust 22, 2022
538 [61] Solid DJune 30, 2022
Elections Daily [62] Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Darren Bailey (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
  • Illinois Family Action [36]
  • Illinois Federation for Right to Life [37]
  • Illinois Citizens for Life [37]
  • Illinois Fraternal Order of Police [82]
  • A Brotherhood Aimed Towards Education of Illinois [83]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregationDates administeredJ.B Pritzker (D)Darren Bailey (R)Scott Schluter (L)Margin
FiveThirtyEight June 21– November 8, 202256.1%39.9%4.8%Pritzker +16.2
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Darren
Bailey (R)
Scott
Schluter (L)
OtherUndecided
Victory Research (R) November 5–7, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%49%42%5%4%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%56%37%2%5%
Civiqs October 22–25, 2022659 (LV)± 4.3%56%39%3% [lower-alpha 5] 1%
Emerson College October 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%41%3%2% [lower-alpha 6] 4%
52%42%3%3% [lower-alpha 7]
University of Illinois Springfield October 17 – 25, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.5%55%40%5%
Osage Research (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 13–15, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%44%42%4%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 10–11, 2022770 (LV)± 3.5%49%34%8%9%
Research America October 5–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%28%6%4% [lower-alpha 8] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] September 25–27, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%5%
48%40%3%8%
Emerson College September 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%36%5% [lower-alpha 9] 8%
Osage Research (R) [upper-alpha 5] September 8–10, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%37%8%13%
Victory Research (R) August 30 – September 1, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%47%36%2%15%
Victory Geek (D) August 25–28, 2022512 (LV)± 4.3%56%38%6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] August, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%38%3%10%
52%42%6%
Victory Research (R) July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%49%39%2%10%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 20–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%7%
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%55%27%17%
Hypothetical polling
J. B. Pritzker vs. Richard Irvin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Richard
Irvin (R)
Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%53%22%25%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Gary Rabine
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Gary
Rabine (R)
Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%52%28%19%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Paul Schimpf
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Paul
Schimpf (R)
Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%56%22%22%
J. B. Pritzker vs. Jesse Sullivan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Jesse
Sullivan (R)
Undecided
Victory Research (R) January 18–20, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%53%22%25%
J. B. Pritzker vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) November 8–10, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%10%
J. B. Pritzker vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
J. B.
Pritzker (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Victory Research (R) July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%47%47%6%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 20–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 20–21, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%46%44%10%

Debates

2022 Illinois gubernatorial debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

J. B. Pritzker Darren Bailey
October 6, 2022 Illinois State University YouTube PP
October 18, 2022 NewsNation YouTube PP

Results

2022 Illinois gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2022 Illinois gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2022 Illinois gubernatorial election [84]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
2,253,748 54.91% +0.38%
Republican
1,739,09542.37%+3.54%
Libertarian
  • Scott Schluter
  • John Phillips
111,7122.72%+0.32%
Write-in 810.0%-0.01%
Total votes4,104,636 100.0%
Turnout  %
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Pritzker won 14 of 17 congressional districts. [85]

DistrictPritzkerBaileyRepresentative
1st 68%30% Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
2nd 66%32% Robin Kelly
3rd 68%29% Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
4th 69%29% Chuy García
5th 70%28% Mike Quigley
6th 53%44% Sean Casten
7th 85%13% Danny Davis
8th 55%42% Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 71%26% Jan Schakowsky
10th 61%35% Brad Schneider
11th 55%42% Bill Foster
12th 25%72% Mike Bost
13th 53%44% Nikki Budzinski
14th 52%45% Lauren Underwood
15th 29%69% Mary Miller
16th 37%60% Darin LaHood
17th 49%48% Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Johnson with 1%, Smith with <1%
  4. Johnson with 2%
  5. "Someone else" with 3%
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. "Someone else" with 3%
  8. "Other" with 0%; "None" with 4%
  9. "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 This poll was sponsored by People Who Play by the Rules PAC, which supports Bailey
  2. This poll was sponsored by Sullivan's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Irvin's camapign
  4. 1 2 Poll conducted for an undisclosed client
  5. 1 2 Poll conducted for Bailey's campaign.

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