2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
Flag of Alaska.svg
  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  
  Lisa Murkowski in 2020 (cropped).jpg Kelly Tshibaka (53423158403) (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Candidate Lisa Murkowski Kelly Tshibaka Pat Chesbro
Party Republican Republican Democratic
First round113,495
43.37%
111,480
42.60%
27,145
10.37%
Final round 136,330
53.70%
117,534
46.30%
Eliminated

2022 United States Senate general election in Alaska by State House district.svg
2022 United States Senate general election final round in Alaska results map by State House district.svg
2022 U.S. Senate election in Alaska.svg
Murkowski:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tshibaka:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection [1] to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.

Contents

After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, [2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters will utilize ranked-choice voting. [3]

Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who served as a U.S. senator from Alaska from 1981 until he was elected governor of Alaska. Murkowski has won three Senate elections since then, including a notable write-in campaign in the 2010 election, although she has never won an election with an outright majority of the vote. [4] [5] [6]

Murkowski was the only Republican senator running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict former president Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. [7] [8] Following Murkowski's opposition to some of Trump's initiatives and her vote to convict him, Trump endorsed Tshibaka and campaigned against Murkowski. [9] [10] The Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka; Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski. [11]

In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka. [12] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes, but because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters. [13] Since Murkowski won her three previous elections to the U.S. Senate (2004, 2010, and 2016) without a majority of the vote, this election became the fourth election in which she did not receive a majority of the vote in the first round (the other three elections did not employ ranked choice voting with multiple rounds). Murkowski thus holds the record for the most number of elections won by a U.S. Senator without winning a majority of the votes.

Primary election

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Declined

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Libertarian Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Thorne, veteran [32]

Alaskan Independence Party

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • Dave Darden, perennial candidate [33]
  • Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
  • Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 [33]
  • Jeremy Keller, television personality [18]
  • Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020 [19]

Declined

Results

Primary election results by state house district 2022 United States Senate primary election in Alaska by State House district.svg
Primary election results by state house district
Primary election results [16] [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 85,794 45.05%
Republican Kelly Tshibaka 73,414 38.55%
Democratic Patricia Chesbro 12,989 6.82%
Republican Buzz Kelley 4,055 2.13%
Republican Pat Nolin2,0041.05%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 1,9811.04%
Democratic Ivan R. Taylor1,8971.00%
Republican Sam Merrill1,5290.80%
Libertarian Sean Thorne1,3990.73%
Independent Shoshana Gungurstein8530.45%
Independence Joe Stephens8050.42%
Republican John Schiess7340.39%
Independence Dustin Darden6490.34%
Republican Kendall L. Shorkey6270.33%
Republican Karl Speights6130.32%
Independent Jeremy Keller4050.21%
Independent Sid Hill2740.14%
Independent Huhnkie Lee2380.12%
Independent Dave Darden1980.10%
Total votes190,458 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [37] Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [38] Solid RApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Safe RMarch 1, 2022
Politico [40] Solid RSeptember 5, 2022
RCP [41] Safe RSeptember 15, 2022
Fox News [42] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [43] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [44] Solid ROctober 24, 2022
The Economist [45] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Debates and forums

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska debates
No.DateHostLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn  
Lisa Murkowski Kelly TshibakaPatricia ChesbroBuzz Kelley
1September 1, 2022 Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Anchorage Daily News
Youtube PPPA
2October 10, 2022Anchorage Chamber of Commerce Youtube PPPW

Endorsements

Pat Chesbro (D)
Organizations
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Executive branch officials
Governors
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
Pat
Chesbro
(D)
Buzz
Kelley
(R)
Undecided /
Not Ranked
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 20221,276 (LV)±3.0%
141%39%16%4%
242%41%17% [lower-alpha 3]
356%44% [lower-alpha 4]
Alaska Survey Research September 25–27, 20221,282 (LV)±3.0%
141%39%16%4%
242%41%17% [lower-alpha 3]
357%43% [lower-alpha 4]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] September 6–11, 20221,050 (LV) [lower-alpha 5] N/A [lower-alpha 6] 35%43%13%1%7% U
138%46%14%2%7% NR
238%47%14% [lower-alpha 7] 8% NR
350%50% [lower-alpha 8] 10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Pat
Chesbro
(D)
Dustin
Darden
(AIP)
Elvi
Gray-Jackson
(D)
Al
Gross
(D/I)
John
Howe
(AIP)
Joe
Miller
(L)
Lisa
Murkowski
(R)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Kelly
Tshibaka
(R)
OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)± 2.9%117%5%35%43%
220%36%45%
352%48%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 14–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.2%129%45%26%
?49%51%
Alaska Survey Research October 22–27, 2021969 (RV)± 3.2%122%35%20%23%
223%42%35%
360%40%
Alaska Survey Research July 11–21, 2021947 (LV)± 3.2%119%18%36%27%
221%39%40%
355%45%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] May 22–25, 20211,023 (LV)± 3.1%BA25%4%19%39%1% [lower-alpha 9] 12%
3 [lower-alpha 10] 46%54%

Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Lisa
Murkowski (R)
Kelly
Tshibaka (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research April 16–21, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.9%55%45%

Results

Preference flow 2022 Alaska United States Senate election preference flow.svg
Preference flow
2022 United States Senate election in Alaska [89] [90]
PartyCandidateFirst ChoiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %TransferVotes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)113,49543.37%+623114,11843.39%+1,641115,75944.49%+20,571136,33053.70%
Republican Kelly Tshibaka 111,48042.60%+621112,10142.62%+3,209115,31044.32%+2,224117,53446.30%
Democratic Pat Chesbro27,14510.37%+1,08828,23310.73%+90129,13411.20%−29,134Eliminated
Republican Buzz Kelley(withdrew) [lower-alpha 1] 7,5572.89%+1,0188,5753.26%−8,575Eliminated
Write-in 2,0280.77%-2,028Eliminated
Total votes261,705263,027260,203253,864
Blank or inactive ballots 3,770+2,8246,594+6,33912,933
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Remained on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline of 64 days ahead of the election. [17]
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. 1 2 Kelley eliminated.
  4. 1 2 Chesbro eliminated.
  5. The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  6. Standard polling question.
  7. Kelley eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 29% to Tshibaka and 71% not ranked further.
  8. Chesbro eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 77% to Murkowski, 8% to Tshibaka, and 15% not ranked further.
  9. Would not vote with 1%
  10. Excluding undecided voters

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by AARP
  2. This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action

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