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Murkowski: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tshibaka: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Alaska |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro. [1]
This was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process provided for in Ballot Measure 2. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters utilized ranked-choice voting. [2] [3]
Murkowski had been a vocal critic of Donald Trump during his presidency and opposed several of his initiatives. Murkowski was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, and was the only one up for re-election in 2022. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, was endorsed by Trump and the Alaska Republican Party. [4] [5] [6] Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski. [7]
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot. [8] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes; however, because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, an instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters. [9]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [33] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [34] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [35] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico [36] | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
RCP [37] | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
Fox News [38] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [39] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [40] | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
The Economist [41] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News | [42] | P | P | P | A |
2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | [43] | P | P | P | W |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | RCV count | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Pat Chesbro (D) | Buzz Kelley (R) | Undecided / Not Ranked |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research [86] | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — [c] | — | ||||
3 | 56% | 44% | – [d] | — | |||||
Alaska Survey Research [87] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — [c] | — | ||||
3 | 57% | 43% | – [d] | — | |||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [88] [A] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A [f] | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U |
1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | – [g] | 8% NR | ||||
3 | 50% | 50% | – [h] | 10% NR |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | RCV count | Pat Chesbro (D) | Dustin Darden (AIP) | Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) | Al Gross (D/I) | John Howe (AIP) | Joe Miller (L) | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Sarah Palin (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research [89] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
Cygnal (R) [90] [B] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research [91] | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research [92] | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
Change Research (D) [93] [C] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1% [i] | 12% | ||
3 [j] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – |
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research [94] | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
Republican | Buzz Kelley(withdrew) [a] | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
Republican hold |
Partisan clients
Lisa Ann Murkowski is an American attorney and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Alaska, having held the seat since 2002. She is the first woman to represent Alaska in the Senate and is the Senate's second-most senior Republican woman. Murkowski became dean of Alaska's congressional delegation upon Representative Don Young's death.
The Alaska Republican Party is the affiliate of the Republican Party in Alaska, headquartered in Anchorage.
The 2002 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican United States Senator Ted Stevens ran for and won a seventh term in the United States Senate. He faced perennial candidate Frank Vondersaar, the Democratic nominee, journalist Jim Sykes, the Green Party nominee, and several other independent candidates in his bid for re-election. Ultimately, Stevens defeated his opponents by an overwhelming margin to win what would be his last term in the Senate, the highest percentage of the vote of any of his elections. This would be the last Senate election in the state until 2020 in which the winning candidate received a majority of the vote.
The 2004 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, various state and local elections, and the presidential election of that year. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Anchorage, sought election to her first full term after being appointed by her father Frank Murkowski to serve out the rest of the latter's unexpired term when he resigned in December 2002 to become Governor of Alaska. Her main challenger was Democratic former governor Tony Knowles, her father's predecessor as governor. Murkowski won by a slight margin. As of 2022, Lisa Murkowski’s vote total of 149,773 votes remains the most raw votes she has ever received during any of her runs for the US Senate.
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Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Sullivan previously served as the commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources from 2010 to 2013, and as the Alaska Attorney General from 2009 to 2010.
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Tara MacLean Sweeney is an American businesswoman and former political appointee who served as assistant secretary of the interior for Native American affairs from July 2018 to January 2021. Sweeney is an Alaska Native and previously served in the cabinet of Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski. In 2022, she unsuccessfully ran to represent Alaska in the United States House of Representatives. The election was won by Democrat Mary Peltola.
The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
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The 2022 Alaska state elections took place on November 8, 2022. The state also held Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA) elections on the first Tuesday in October.
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The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
Official campaign websites