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Murkowski: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tshibaka: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Alaska |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection [1] to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.
After the voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, [2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters will utilize ranked-choice voting. [3]
Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who served as a U.S. senator from Alaska from 1981 until he was elected governor of Alaska. Murkowski has won three Senate elections since then, including a notable write-in campaign in the 2010 election, although she has never won an election with an outright majority of the vote. [4] [5] [6]
Murkowski was the only Republican senator running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict former president Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. [7] [8] Following Murkowski's opposition to some of Trump's initiatives and her vote to convict him, Trump endorsed Tshibaka and campaigned against Murkowski. [9] [10] The Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka; Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski. [11]
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka. [12] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes, but because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters. [13] Since Murkowski won her three previous elections to the U.S. Senate (2004, 2010, and 2016) without a majority of the vote, this election became the fourth election in which she did not receive a majority of the vote in the first round (the other three elections did not employ ranked choice voting with multiple rounds). Murkowski thus holds the record for the most number of elections won by a U.S. Senator without winning a majority of the votes.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [37] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [38] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico [40] | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
RCP [41] | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
Fox News [42] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [43] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [44] | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
The Economist [45] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News | Youtube | P | P | P | A |
2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | Youtube | P | P | P | W |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | RCV count | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Pat Chesbro (D) | Buzz Kelley (R) | Undecided / Not Ranked |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — [lower-alpha 3] | — | ||||
3 | 56% | 44% | – [lower-alpha 4] | — | |||||
Alaska Survey Research | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | — [lower-alpha 3] | — | ||||
3 | 57% | 43% | – [lower-alpha 4] | — | |||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [lower-alpha 5] | N/A [lower-alpha 6] | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U |
1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | – [lower-alpha 7] | 8% NR | ||||
3 | 50% | 50% | – [lower-alpha 8] | 10% NR |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | RCV count | Pat Chesbro (D) | Dustin Darden (AIP) | Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) | Al Gross (D/I) | John Howe (AIP) | Joe Miller (L) | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Sarah Palin (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1% [lower-alpha 9] | 12% | ||
3 [lower-alpha 10] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – |
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Lisa Murkowski (R) | Kelly Tshibaka (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Party | Candidate | First Choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
Republican | Buzz Kelley(withdrew) [lower-alpha 1] | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
Republican hold |
Partisan clients
Lisa Ann Murkowski is an American attorney and politician serving as the senior United States senator representing Alaska, having held that seat since 2002. She is the first woman to represent Alaska in the Senate and the Senate's second-most senior Republican woman, after Susan Collins of Maine. She became dean of Alaska's congressional delegation upon Representative Don Young's death.
The Alaska Republican Party is the affiliate of the Republican Party in Alaska, headquartered in Anchorage.
The 2002 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican United States Senator Ted Stevens ran for and won a seventh term in the United States Senate. He faced perennial candidate Frank Vondersaar, the Democratic nominee, journalist Jim Sykes, the Green Party nominee, and several other independent candidates in his bid for re-election. Ultimately, Stevens crushed his opponents to win what would be his last term in the Senate, allowing him to win the highest percentage of the vote in any of his elections. This would be the last Senate election in the state until 2020 when the winning candidate received a majority of the vote.
The 2004 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, various state and local elections, and the presidential election of that year. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Anchorage, sought election to her first full term after being appointed by her father Frank Murkowski to serve out the rest of the latter's unexpired term when he resigned in December 2002 to become Governor of Alaska. Her main challenger was Democratic former governor Tony Knowles, her father's predecessor as governor. Murkowski won by a slight margin. As of 2022, Senator Murkowski’s vote total of 149,773 votes remains the most raw votes she has ever received during any of her runs for the US Senate.
The 2010 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 2, 2010, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, alongside 33 U.S. Senate elections in other states, elections in all states for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. The general election was preceded by primary elections which were held on August 24, 2010. Scott McAdams, the Mayor of Sitka, became the Democratic nominee; Joe Miller, an attorney and former federal magistrate, became the Republican nominee after defeating incumbent U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski. Miller was endorsed by the Tea Party movement and former Governor Sarah Palin. Murkowski announced that despite her defeat in the primary, she would run in the general election as a write-in candidate.
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Sullivan previously served as the commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources from 2010 to 2013, and as the Alaska Attorney General from 2009 to 2010.
Joseph Wayne Miller is an American attorney and politician. He is best known as the runner-up in both the 2010 United States Senate election in Alaska and the following 2016 election. A member of the Republican Party, he faced Lisa Murkowski in both races, and has aligned himself with the Libertarian Party and Constitution Party.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate. John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.
The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018, and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.
The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with other midterm elections at the federal, state and local levels. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, the winners of which will serve six-year terms beginning with the 118th United States Congress. Two special elections were held to complete unexpired terms. While pundits considered the Republican Party a slight favorite to gain control of the Senate, Senate Democrats outperformed expectations and expanded the majority they had held since 2021, gaining one seat for a functioning 51–49 majority.
The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.
The political positions of Lisa Murkowski are reflected by her United States Senate voting record, public speeches, and interviews. Lisa Murkowski is a Republican senator from Alaska who has served since 2002.
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
Kelly Chaundel Tshibaka is an American attorney and politician who served in the federal government from 2002 to 2019 in several inspector general offices. Upon moving back to her home state of Alaska in 2019, she served for two years as the commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration until 2021. Tshibaka was a Republican candidate for the United States Senate in the 2022 election. She lost to the incumbent, Republican Lisa Murkowski.
The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.
The 2022 Alaska state elections took place on November 8, 2022. The state also held Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA) elections on the first Tuesday in October.
The 2024 Anchorage mayoral election will be held on April 2, 2024, to elect the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. If no candidate receives more than 45% of the vote in the first round, the two highest-placing candidates will advance to a runoff election on May 14. Incumbent Republican mayor Dave Bronson is running for re-election to a second term in office.
The 2024 Alaska Republican presidential primary was held on March 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 29 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis. The contest was held on Super Tuesday alongside primaries in 14 other states.
The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
Official campaign websites