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Turnout | 50.80% (![]() | ||||||||||||||||
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Newsom: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Dahle: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in California |
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The 2022 California gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022. [1] Incumbent Democratic Party Governor Gavin Newsom was re-elected to a second term after surviving a recall election in 2021, during his first term.
The elections featured universal mail-in ballots; in-person voting was also available. [2] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Democrats. Newsom won 61.9% of the vote in both the 2018 gubernatorial election and the 2021 recall election. He received 55.9% of the top-two primary vote and faced Republican Party state senator Brian Dahle, who received 17.7% of the primary vote, in the general election. [3]
Newsom received 59.2% of the vote to Dahle's 40.8%, a smaller margin of victory than in 2018 and the first time the Democratic candidate failed to win 60% of the vote since 2010. Dahle flipped five counties that Newsom carried in 2018, namely Lake, Merced (although Merced voted to recall Newsom), Orange, San Bernardino, and San Joaquin. Dahle received 32% of the vote in Los Angeles County, the highest percentage received by a Republican in the state's most populous county since 2014. [4] Dahle also managed to carry two congressional districts represented by Democrats (CA-09 and CA-47). This election marks the fourth consecutive California gubernatorial election in which a Democratic candidate won.
The list of candidates was announced on Mar 31, 2022 by the secretary of state. [49]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | (R) Ronald Anderson | (G) Heather Collins | (R) Shawn Collins | (R) Brian Dahle | (D) Anthony Fanara | (I) Serge Fiankan | (I) James Hanink | (R) Ron Jones | (R) Jenny Rae Le Roux | (R) David Lozano | (R) Daniel Mercuri | (R) Cristian Raul Morales | (R) Robert Newman II | (D) Gavin Newsom | (D) Armando Perez-Serrato | (G) Luis Javier Rodriguez | (I) Woodrow Sanders III | (I) Frederic Schultz | (I) Reinette Senum | (I) Michael Shellenberger | (R) Lonnie Sortor | (R) Anthony Trimino | (D) Joel Ventresca | (R) Major Williams | (R) Leo Zacky | (I) Bradley Zink | Undecided |
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Berkeley IGS | May 24–31, 2022 | 3,438 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 16% |
SurveyUSA | May 13–15, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 18% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gavin Newsom (incumbent) | 3,945,728 | 55.9 | |
Republican | Brian Dahle | 1,252,800 | 17.7 | |
No party preference | Michael Shellenberger | 290,286 | 4.1 | |
Republican | Jenny Rae Le Roux | 246,665 | 3.5 | |
Republican | Anthony Trimino | 246,322 | 3.5 | |
Republican | Shawn Collins | 173,083 | 2.5 | |
Green | Luis J. Rodriguez | 124,672 | 1.8 | |
Republican | Leo S. Zacky | 94,521 | 1.3 | |
Republican | Major Williams | 92,580 | 1.3 | |
Republican | Robert C. Newman II | 82,849 | 1.2 | |
Democratic | Joel Ventresca | 66,885 | 0.9 | |
Republican | David Lozano | 66,542 | 0.9 | |
Republican | Ronald A. Anderson | 53,554 | 0.8 | |
No party preference | Reinette Senum | 53,015 | 0.8 | |
Democratic | Armando Perez-Serrato | 45,474 | 0.6 | |
Republican | Ron Jones | 38,337 | 0.5 | |
Republican | Daniel R. Mercuri | 36,396 | 0.5 | |
Green | Heather Collins | 29,690 | 0.4 | |
Democratic | Anthony Fanara | 25,086 | 0.4 | |
Republican | Cristian Raul Morales | 22,304 | 0.3 | |
Republican | Lonnie Sortor | 21,044 | 0.3 | |
No party preference | Frederic C. Schultz | 17,502 | 0.2 | |
No party preference | Woodrow Sanders III | 16,204 | 0.2 | |
No party preference | James G. Hanink | 10,110 | 0.1 | |
No party preference | Serge Fiankan | 6,201 | 0.1 | |
No party preference | Bradley Zink | 5,997 | 0.1 | |
American Independent | Jeff Scott (write-in) | 13 | 0.0 | |
Republican | Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 7,063,868 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [51] | Solid D | October 26, 2022 |
Inside Elections [52] | Solid D | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Politico [54] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [55] | Safe D | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News [56] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
538 [57] | Solid D | November 8, 2022 |
Elections Daily [58] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
Governor Gavin Newsom and State Senator Brian Dahle met on October 23 for their only debate. [59]
No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Participants | |
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Gavin Newsom | Brian Dahle | |||||
1 | October 23, 2022 | KQED | Scott Shafer Marisa Lagos | YouTube | P | P |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Gavin Newsom (D) | Brian Dahle (R) | Other [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
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Real Clear Politics | September 22 – October 23, 2022 | November 3, 2022 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 10.7% | Newsom +20.7 |
FiveThirtyEight | September 2 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 59.6% | 38.7% | 1.7% | Newsom +20.9 |
270ToWin | October 27 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 57.4% | 37.0% | 5.6% | Newsom +20.4 |
Average | 57.3% | 36.7% | 6.0% | Newsom +20.6 |
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gavin Newsom (D) | Brian Dahle (R) | Other | Undecided |
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Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 37% | 7% | |
USC | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 38% | – | – |
UC Berkeley | October 25–31, 2022 | 5,972 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 58% | 37% | – | 4% |
ActiVote | July 29 – October 27, 2022 | 200 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
Public Policy Institute of California | October 14–23, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 55% | 36% | 4% [lower-alpha 4] | 5% |
SurveyUSA | October 7–10, 2022 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 35% | – | 8% |
UC Berkeley | September 22–27, 2022 | 6,939 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 53% | 32% | 2% [lower-alpha 5] | 13% |
Public Policy Institute of California | September 2–11, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 58% | 31% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] | 7% |
UC Berkeley | August 9–15, 2022 | 9,254 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 25% | 4% | 19% |
6,321 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 55% | 31% | 3% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gavin Newsom (D) | Kevin Faulconer (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gavin Newsom (D) | John Cox (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 51% | 26% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gavin Newsom (D) | Larry Elder (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 52% | 30% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gavin Newsom (D) | Kevin Kiley (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 9,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gavin Newsom (incumbent) | 6,470,104 | 59.18% | −2.77 | |
Republican | Brian Dahle | 4,462,914 | 40.82% | +2.77 | |
Total votes | 10,933,018 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 10,933,018 | 50.80% | −12.48 | ||
Registered electors | 21,940,274 | ||||
Democratic hold |
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Newsom won 38 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 14 going to Dahle, including two that elected Democrats. [63]
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