| ||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 56.7% ( 4.5%) | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Evers: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Michels: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Wisconsin |
---|
The 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers won re-election to a second term by a margin of 3.4%, defeating Republican nominee Tim Michels.
As Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes ran for the U.S. Senate in the concurrent election, a new Democratic running mate, state assemblywoman Sara Rodriguez, was nominated in the partisan primary. Barnes was the second lieutenant governor not to run with the incumbent governor since the state constitution was amended in 1967. The partisan primary was held on August 9, 2022, with businessman Tim Michels defeating former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the Republican primary. State senator Roger Roth received the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor.
This election result was the first since 2006 in which a Democrat in Wisconsin won with an outright majority of the vote, the first since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first since 1962 in which Wisconsin voted for a Democratic governor at the same time the party held the presidency. This was also the first gubernatorial election in the state since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent U.S. Senate election.
Evers's victory was labeled a slight upset, as Evers was initially elected back in 2018 by a meager 1.1%, despite 2018 being considered a much more favorable year for Democrats than 2022. In addition, many polls showed Michels in the lead in the weeks leading up to the election. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Evers won independent voters by 6–7 percentage points, which contributed to Michels's defeat. [1]
Evers did substantially better than Mandela Barnes did against incumbent senator Ron Johnson in suburban areas of the state in this election as well as compared to his initial election in 2018, chiefly in the "WOW" counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington that form a ring around the north and west of Milwaukee, performing in line with Biden's 2020 margins. On the flip side, Michels did better in most rural areas than former governor Scott Walker had in 2018, winning the counties of Crawford, Grant, and Richland, three counties that Evers had previously won four years earlier. Michels also flipped the county of Kenosha. One exception to the trend toward Republicans in rural areas was Door County, which flipped to Evers after having voted for Walker in 2018. Notably, Evers carried the 3rd congressional district, which Republican Derrick Van Orden concurrently won after losing in 2020 to then-Representative Ron Kind; Evers also came within 0.2% of carrying the 1st congressional district.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tony Evers (incumbent) | 491,656 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 491,656 | 100.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Peng Her | Sara Rodriguez | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [A] | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 8% | 25% | 62% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sara Rodriguez | 354,260 | 76.50% | |
Democratic | Peng Her | 108,766 | 23.49% | |
Democratic | Angela Kennedy (write-in) | 39 | 0.01% | |
Total votes | 463,065 | 100.0 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Eric Hovde | Rebecca Kleefisch | Tim Michels | Kevin Nicholson | Tim Ramthun | Jonathan Wichmann | Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 6–8, 2022 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 43% | 44% | 3% | 8% | – | 3% [b] | – | |||||
Emerson College | Aug 3–5, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | – | 36% | 34% | 6% | 8% | – | 2% [c] | 14% | |||||
NMB Research (R) [B] | Jul 16–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 35% | 43% | – | – | – | 3% | 19% | |||||
Nicholson suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||||||
Marquette University | Jun 14–20, 2022 | 359 (LV) | ± 6.3% | – | 26% | 27% | 10% | 3% | – | 2% [d] | 32% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [C] | May 9–10, 2022 | 675 (LV) | ± 3.8% | – | 26% | 27% | 9% | 6% | – | 3% | 29% | |||||
Marquette University | Apr 19–24, 2022 | 413 (LV) | ± 5.6% | – | 32% | – | 10% | 4% | – | 3% | 47% | |||||
Remington Research Group (R) [D] | Mar 31 – Apr 2, 2022 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 4% | 42% | – | 29% | – | – | – | 26% | |||||
Marquette University Archived March 2, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | Feb 22–27, 2022 | 353 (LV) | ± 5.8% | – | 30% | – | 8% | 5% | – | 1% | 56% | |||||
WPA Intelligence (R) | Jan 18, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 3% | 59% | – | 8% | – | – | – | – | |||||
The Tarrance Group (R) [E] | Jan 10–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 65% | – | 12% | – | – | – | 23% | |||||
– | 61% | – | 8% | – | 5% | 2% | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tim Michels | 326,969 | 47.18% | |
Republican | Rebecca Kleefisch | 291,384 | 42.05% | |
Republican | Timothy Ramthun | 41,639 | 6.01% | |
Republican | Kevin Nicholson (withdrawn) | 24,884 | 3.59% | |
Republican | Adam Fischer | 8,139 | 1.17% | |
Total votes | 693,015 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Roger Roth | 178,972 | 30.16% | |
Republican | Patrick Testin | 109,374 | 18.43% | |
Republican | Cindy Werner | 80,953 | 13.64% | |
Republican | Jonathan Wichmann | 79,166 | 13.34% | |
Republican | Will Martin | 54,790 | 9.23% | |
Republican | Kyle Yudes | 32,051 | 5.40% | |
Republican | David C. Varnam | 30,640 | 5.16% | |
Republican | David D. King | 27,443 | 4.63% | |
Total votes | 593,389 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [83] | Tossup | June 8, 2022 |
Inside Elections [84] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [85] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
Politico [86] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [87] | Tossup | June 1, 2022 |
Fox News [88] | Tossup | May 12, 2022 |
538 [89] | Tossup | October 7, 2022 |
Elections Daily [90] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Tony Evers (D) | Tim Michels (R) | Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) | Undecided [g] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | September 20 – November 1, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 48.2% | 48.4% | – | 3.4% | Michels +0.2 |
FiveThirtyEight | August 15 – November 2, 2022 | November 2, 2022 | 47.5% | 48.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | Michels +1.4 |
Average | 47.9% | 48.7% | – | 3.4% | Michels +0.8 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Tim Michels (R) | Joan Ellis Beglinger (I) | Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% [h] | 1% | ||||||||
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2022 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 50% | 1% | – | 2% | ||||||||
Marquette University | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 3% [i] | 3% | ||||||||
679 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 1% | ||||||||||
Siena College | October 27–31, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | – | 2% [j] | 6% | ||||||||
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 3% [k] | 4% | ||||||||
Wick Insights | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% [l] | 4% | ||||||||
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% | <1% [m] | 3% | ||||||||
48% | 49% | 2% | 1% [n] | – | ||||||||||||
Patriot Polling | October 20–23, 2022 | 801 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | – | 4% | |||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | October 14–22, 2022 | 1,376 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1% | – | 2% | ||||||||
CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 905 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% [o] | – | ||||||||
714 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% [p] | – | ||||||||||
Marquette University | October 3–9, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 7% | 2% [q] | 3% | ||||||||
652 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 46% | 4% | 2% [r] | 1% | ||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News | October 3–7, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – | 0% | 0% | ||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | September 26–27, 2022 | 574 (V) | – | 48% | 46% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 2% [s] | 4% | ||||||||
Fabrazio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 18–25, 2022 | 1399 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 50% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | September 20–23, 2022 | 999 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 15–19, 2022 | 1087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.27% | 45% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 7% | ||||||||
Big Data Poll (R) | September 17–18, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||
Siena College | September 14–15, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 2% [t] | 5% | ||||||||
Civiqs | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
Marquette University | September 6–11, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 4% | ||||||||
632 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 3% | ||||||||||
Beglinger withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 22–25, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% | ||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R) [F] | August 22–24, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||||||
Marquette University | August 10–15, 2022 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 5% | ||||||||
713 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 5% | ||||||||||
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | – | 2% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Rebecca Kleefisch (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 730 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 38% | 3% | 14% |
718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 41% | 3% | 12% | ||
Change Research (D) [G] | March 25–27, 2021 | 1,723 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Tim Ramthun (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Kevin Nicholson (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Jonathan Wichmann (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 730 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 34% | 5% | 14% |
718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 36% | 4% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Tony Evers (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) | July 6–8, 2021 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived August 12, 2021, at the Wayback Machine [A] | February 8–9, 2021 | 937 (V) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Tony Evers | Tim Michels | |||||
1 | Oct. 14, 2022 | WBAY-TV | Jill Geisler | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
| 1,358,774 | 51.15% | +1.61% | |
Republican |
| 1,268,535 | 47.75% | −0.69% | |
Independent |
| 27,198 | 1.02% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,983 | 0.08% | +0.04% | ||
Total votes | 2,656,490 | 100.0% | -0.63% | ||
Turnout | 2,668,891 | 56.7% | |||
Registered electors | 3,760,845 | ||||
Democratic hold |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Evers won 3 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [131]
District | Evers | Michels | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49.3% | 49.5% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 74% | 26% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 50% | 49% | Ron Kind (117th Congress) |
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 77% | 21% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 39% | 61% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
6th | 42% | 57% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 40% | 58% | Tom Tiffany |
8th | 43% | 56% | Mike Gallagher |
Roger James Roth Jr. is an American Republican politician from Appleton, Wisconsin. He was a member of the Wisconsin Senate for eight years, representing Wisconsin's 19th Senate district from 2015 to 2023, and was president of the Senate during the 2017–2018 and 2019–2020 legislative terms. Before serving in the Senate, he was a member of the Wisconsin State Assembly for two terms.
Rebecca Ann Kleefisch is an American politician and former television reporter who served as the 44th Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, she was elected to the position on November 2, 2010, as the running mate of Governor Scott Walker; the pair narrowly lost reelection to a third term in 2018.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.
The 2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to determine the governor and lieutenant governor of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. It occurred concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
John Jagler is an American radio broadcaster, communications consultant, and Republican politician from Watertown, Wisconsin. He is a member of the Wisconsin Senate, representing the 13th Senate district since 2021. He previously served four terms in the Wisconsin State Assembly, from 2013 to 2021.
The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending the state's Republican trifecta.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term, narrowly defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson won in 1968 as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state.
A special election was held to fill the remainder of the term in the United States House of Representatives for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district in the 116th United States Congress. Sean Duffy, the incumbent representative, announced his resignation effective September 23, 2019, as his wife was about to give birth to a child with a heart condition. Governor Tony Evers chose January 27, 2020, as the date for the special election, with the primaries scheduled for December 30, 2019. However, the Department of Justice said that this schedule would be in violation of federal law, since it would provide insufficient time for overseas and military voters to receive ballots. Evers then rescheduled the primaries for February 18, 2020, and the general election for May 12, 2020.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on August 9, 2022. The Republican Party won a majority of Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation as well as, notably, 55.5 percent of the statewide vote.
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The 2022 Wisconsin Secretary of State election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Secretary of State of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democrat Doug La Follette won re-election to an unprecedented 12th term in the office, narrowly defeating Republican state legislator Amy Loudenbeck. With a margin of 0.29%, this was the closest secretary of state race of the 2022 election cycle.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the State of Wisconsin, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.
The 2024 Wisconsin's 8th congressional district special election was held concurrent with the fall general election on November 5, 2024, to fill the vacant seat in Wisconsin's 8th congressional district. The winner will serve in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 118th United States Congress, which ends January 3, 2025. The seat became vacant on April 24, 2024, when Mike Gallagher resigned from Congress. On May 14, Governor Tony Evers scheduled the special election to be held concurrently with the fall general election, on November 5, with primaries being held concurrent with the fall primary, on August 13.
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