2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Flag of Wisconsin.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout72.5% (voting eligible) [1]
  Tammy Baldwin, official photo portrait, color (cropped).jpg Tommy Thompson 1 (3x4) a.jpg
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,547,1041,380,126
Percentage51.41%45.86%
2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg
WI-2012-senate-districts.svg
2012 Wisconsin Senate election results by precinct.svg
Baldwin:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Thompson:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     Tie     No data
U.S. senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Contents

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement. [2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement. [3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin		Jon
Erpenbach		Russ
Feingold		Kathleen
Falk		Steve
Kagen		Ron
Kind		Barbara
Lawton		Gwen
Moore		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [14] May 19–22, 2011783±3.5%12%5%70%1%3%4%1%2%3%
30%13%—4%17%16%3%6%12%
Magellan Strategies [15] July 12–13, 2011627±3.9%46%———21%———33%
41%————19%——40%
Public Policy Polling [16] August 12–14, 2011387±5%48%———19%———33%
37%———15%21%——27%

Results

Democratic primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 185,265 99.77
Democratic Write ins4240.23
Total votes185,689 100

Republican primary

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired. [18] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run. [19] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote. [20]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Fitzgerald		Eric
Hovde		Mark
Neumann		Tommy
Thompson		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [32] August 8–9, 2012557± 4.2%15%27%24%25%9%
Marquette University [33] August 2–5, 2012519± 4.4%13%20%18%28%7%
We Ask America [34] July 31, 20121,237± 2.8%12%23%17%23%25%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 30–31, 2012400± 4.9%13%28%25%25%9%
—33%27%30%10%
Marquette University [36] July 5–8, 2012432± 4.8%6%23%10%35%25%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 2012564± 4.1%9%31%15%29%16%
OnMessage Inc. [38] +June 26–27, 2012600± 4.0%7%29%16%34%14%
Marquette University [39] June 13–16, 2012344± 5.4%10%14%16%34%25%
Public Policy Polling [40] March 31–April 1, 2012609± 4.0%18%—25%38%19%
Public Policy Polling [41] February 23–26, 2012556± 4.2%22%—22%39%17%
32%—42%—26%
37%——46%17%
——36%46%18%
Public Policy Polling [42] October 20–23, 2011650± 3.8%21%—29%35%11%
——39%43%17%
28%—44%—28%
35%——47%17%
Public Policy Polling [16] August 12–14, 2011362± 5.2%——39%47%13%
Magellan Strategies [43] July 12–13, 2011638± 3.9%15%—26%41%18%
——36%44%20%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Tommy
Thompson		Someone more
conservative		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35] July 30–31, 2012400± 4.9%29%58%13%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 2012564± 4.1%34%50%17%
Public Policy Polling [41] February 23–26, 2012556± 4.2%37%47%17%
Public Policy Polling [42] October 20–23, 2011650± 3.8%35%51%14%

Endorsements

Jeff Fitzgerald
Eric Hovde
Mark Neumann
Tommy Thompson

Politicians

Celebrities and political commentators [65]

Cabinet officials [65]

  • Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
  • Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
  • Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators [65]

Political organization officials [65]

  • David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union [69]
  • Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
  • Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
  • Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials [65]

  • Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
  • Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations [65]

  • Wisconsin Right to Life
  • Dairy Business Association
  • Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
  • Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
  • Milwaukee Police Association
  • Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
  • Wisconsin Grocers Association
  • Wisconsin Restaurant Association
  • Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin Health Care Association
  • Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
  • GOProud [70]

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Thompson 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Hovde 30-40% 40-50% Neumann 30-40% 40-50% 2012 WI US Senate GOP primary.svg
Results by county
  Thompson
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Hovde
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Neumann
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tommy Thompson 197,928 34.0
Republican Eric Hovde179,55730.8
Republican Mark Neumann 132,78622.8
Republican Jeff Fitzgerald 71,87112.3
Republican Write ins2440.04
Total votes582,630 100

General election

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate. Baldwin-Thompson debate.jpg
Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Tammy Baldwin (D)$14,643,869$15,204,940$143,852$0
Tommy Thompson (R)$9,585,823$9,582,888$2,934$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [73]

Top contributors

Tammy BaldwinContributionTommy ThompsonContribution
EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825
MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500
University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250
J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500
League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750
Democracy Engine$81,330American Foods Group$25,000
Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000
Voices for Progress$25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750
Marshfield Clinic $21,800BGR Group$20,500
Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000
Source: OpenSecrets [74]

Top industries

Tammy BaldwinContributionTommy ThompsonContribution
Women's Issues $915,482Retired$858,276
Retired$791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms $597,674 Financial Institutions $243,636
Democratic/Liberal$555,792Lawyers/Law Firms$228,379
Leadership PACs$309,430 Real Estate $227,687
Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$204,302
Human Rights Organisations $215,539 Insurance Industry $202,654
Health Professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & Distributing$169,104
Pro-Israel $172,380Health Professionals$150,149
Business Services$163,238 Lobbyists $138,700
Source: OpenSecrets [75]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [76] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [77] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [78] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [79] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%44%45%—11%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%42%50%—8%
Public Policy Polling [82] October 20–23, 20111,170±2.9%44%46%—10%
Rasmussen Reports [83] October 26, 2011500±4.5%42%49%4%6%
Marquette University [84] February 16–19, 2012716±3.7%42%48%1%9%
Public Policy Polling [41] February 23–26, 2012900±3.3%46%45%—9%
Rasmussen Reports [85] February 27, 2012500±4.5%36%50%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports [86] March 27, 2012500±4.5%44%48%4%4%
Public Policy Polling [87] April 13–15, 20121,136±2.9%45%47%—8%
Rasmussen Reports [88] May 9, 2012500±4.5%38%50%5%7%
Public Policy Polling [89] May 11–13, 2012851±3.4%42%47%—11%
Rasmussen Reports [90] June 12, 2012500±4.5%36%52%6%6%
Marquette University [39] June 13–16, 2012707±3.8%41%49%—10%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 20121,057±3.0%45%45%—11%
Marquette University [36] July 5–8, 2012810±3.5%41%45%—14%
Rasmussen Reports [91] July 25, 2012500±4.5%48%41%5%6%
Marquette University [92] August 2–5, 20121,400±2.6%43%48%—5%
Quinnipiac [93] July 31 – August 6, 20121,428±2.6%47%47%1%5%
Rasmussen Reports [94] August 15, 2012500±4.5%43%54%1%3%
Public Policy Polling [95] August 16–19, 20121,308±2.7%44%49%—7%
Marquette University [96] August 16–19, 2012576±4.2%41%50%—9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [97] August 15–21, 20121,190±3.0%44%50%1%4%
YouGov [98] September 4–11, 2012772±n/a42%48%—10%
Public Policy Polling [99] September 12–13, 2012959±n/a48%45%—6%
Marquette University [100] September 13–16, 2012705±3.8%50%41%—5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [101] September 11–17, 20121,485±2.5%47%47%—6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll [102] September 16–18, 2012968±3.2%48%46%—5%
Public Policy Polling [103] September 18–19, 2012842±3.4%49%45%—6%
We Ask America [104] September 20–23, 20121,238±2.8%52%40%—8%
Marquette University [105] September 27–30, 2012894±3.3%48%44%—6%
Public Policy Polling [106] October 4–6, 2012979±3.1%49%46%—6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [107] October 4–9, 20121,327±2.7%48%46%—5%
Rasmussen Reports [108] October 9, 2012500±4.5%51%47%1%2%
YouGov [109] October 4–11, 2012639±4.9%48%43%—9%
Marquette University [110] October 11–14, 2012870±3.3%45%46%—7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll [111] October 15–17, 20121,013±3.1%49%45%1%5%
Mason-Dixon [112] October 15–17, 2012625±4%47%45%—8%
Rasmussen Reports [113] October 18, 2012500±4.5%46%48%3%3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [114] October 18–20, 2012502±4.5%45%42%3%11%
Rasmussen Reports [115] October 25, 2012500±4.5%47%48%2%4%
Marquette University [116] October 25–28, 20121,243±2.8%47%43%—10%
St. Norbert College [117] October 25–29, 2012402±5%43%46%—11%
Rasmussen Reports [115] October 29, 2012750±4.0%48%48%1%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [118] October 31, 20121,065±3.0%48%47%4%1%
WeAskAmerica [119] October 31 – November 1, 20121,210±3%49%46%—5%
YouGov [120] October 31 – November 3, 20121,225±3.1%48%47%—5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [121] November 1–3, 2012482±4.5%50%48%2%—
Public Policy Polling [122] November 2–3, 20121,256±2.8%51%48%—2%
Hypothetical polling

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%48%37%—15%
Public Policy Polling [82] October 20–23, 20111,170±2.9%44%40%—16%
Rasmussen Reports [83] October 26, 2011500±4.5%46%39%4%6%
Marquette University [84] February 16–19, 2012716±3.7%45%37%3%15%
Public Policy Polling [41] February 23–26, 2012900±3.3%47%39%—14%
Rasmussen Reports [85] February 27, 2012500±4.5%40%41%4%15%
Rasmussen Reports [86] March 27, 2012500±4.5%48%40%4%7%
Public Policy Polling [87] April 13–15, 20121,136±2.9%47%40%—13%
Rasmussen Reports [88] May 9, 2012500±4.5%45%41%4%9%
Rasmussen Reports [115] June 12, 2012500±4.5%44%43%5%8%
Marquette University [39] June 13–16, 2012707±3.8%45%39%—16%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 20121,057±3.0%46%42%—13%
Marquette University [36] July 5–8, 2012810±3.5%43%37%—20%
Rasmussen Reports [115] July 25, 2012500±4.5%47%37%6%10%
Marquette University [92] August 2–5, 20121,400±2.6%45%40%—7%
Quinnipiac [93] July 31 – August 6, 20121,428±2.6%51%39%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Eric
Hovde (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [89] May 11–13, 2012851±3.4%41%45%—14%
Rasmussen Reports [115] June 12, 2012500±4.5%42%44%4%10%
Marquette University [39] June 13–16, 2012707±3.8%45%36%—19%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 20121,057±3.0%44%45%—11%
Marquette University [36] July 5–8, 2012810±3.5%44%38%—18%
Rasmussen Reports [115] July 25, 2012500±4.5%45%42%5%8%
Marquette University [92] August 2–5, 20121,400±2.6%44%41%—9%
Quinnipiac [93] July 31 – August 6, 20121,428±2.6%47%43%1%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Mark
Neumann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%46%41%—13%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%40%44%—15%
Public Policy Polling [82] October 20–23, 20111,170±2.9%44%43%—13%
Rasmussen Reports [83] October 26, 2011500±4.5%44%43%4%9%
Marquette University [84] February 16–19, 2012716±3.7%44%40%2%14%
Public Policy Polling [41] February 23–26, 2012900±3.3%47%41%—12%
Rasmussen Reports [85] February 27, 2012500±4.5%37%46%4%13%
Rasmussen Reports [86] March 27, 2012500±4.5%48%40%4%8%
Public Policy Polling [87] April 13–15, 20121,136±2.9%46%45%—9%
Rasmussen Reports [88] May 9, 2012500±4.5%42%44%4%9%
Public Policy Polling [89] May 11–13, 2012851±3.4%42%46%—12%
Rasmussen Reports [115] June 12, 2012500±4.5%43%45%5%7%
Marquette University [39] June 13–16, 2012707±3.8%44%44%—12%
Public Policy Polling [37] July 5–8, 20121,057±3.0%45%41%—13%
Marquette University [36] July 5–8, 2012810±3.5%43%40%—17%
Rasmussen Reports [115] July 25, 2012500±4.5%48%42%3%8%
Marquette University [92] August 2–5, 20121,400±2.6%44%44%—6%
Quinnipiac [93] July 31 – August 6, 20121,428±2.6%48%45%1%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		J. B.
Van Hollen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%46%39%—15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%55%39%—7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Mark
Neumann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%51%44%—5%
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%53%41%—6%
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%50%40%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Paul
Ryan (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%50%43%—7%
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%49%42%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%49%40%—11%
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%52%42%—6%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%48%47%—5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Russ
Feingold (D)		J. B.
Van Hollen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%52%41%—7%
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%51%39%—10%
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%53%38%—9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Kagen (D)		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%43%38%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Kagen (D)		Mark
Neumann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%42%41%—17%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%38%45%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Kagen (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%42%45%—13%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%41%49%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Kagen (D)		J. B.
Van Hollen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%43%38%—19%

with Ron Kind

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Kind (D)		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%45%37%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Kind (D)		Mark
Neumann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%44%40%—16%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%40%43%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Kind (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%44%44%—12%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 12–14, 2011830±3.4%41%48%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Kind (D)		J. B.
Van Hollen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [80] May 19–22, 20111,636±2.4%44%38%—17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Herb
Kohl (D)		Mark
Neumann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%51%37%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Herb
Kohl (D)		Paul
Ryan (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%48%42%—11%
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%49%42%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Herb
Kohl (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%49%40%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Herb
Kohl (D)		J. B.
Van Hollen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [124] December 10–12, 2010702±3.7%51%38%—11%
Public Policy Polling [123] February 24–27, 2011768±3.5%52%37%—11%

Results

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012 [125]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 1,547,104 51.41% −15.90%
Republican Tommy Thompson 1,380,12645.86%+16.38%
Libertarian Joseph Kexel62,2402.07%N/A
Independent Nimrod Allen, III16,4550.55%N/A
Write-in 3,4860.11%+0.05%
Total votes3,009,411 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts. [126]

DistrictThompsonBaldwinRepresentative
1st 50.61%46.56% Paul Ryan
2nd 32.28%65.82% Mark Pocan
3rd 44.31%52.77% Ron Kind
4th 25.15%72.93% Gwen Moore
5th 61.06%36.68% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.93%44.05% Tom Petri
7th 48.93%48.06% Sean Duffy
8th 50.21%46.63% Reid Ribble

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat." [127]

See also

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