Background
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal and state levels with a uniquely competitive track record (presidential races decided by less than a point in 2016, 2020, 2024, Senate races decided by roughly a point in 2022 and 2024, a governor’s race decided by a point in 2018). [2] The past two Wisconsin elections featured split outcomes, with Democrats winning for governor and Republicans for Senate in 2022, and Democrats winning for Senate and Republicans for president in 2024. Wisconsin has voted with the winner of the last five presidential elections, and in 2024 had the second highest voter turnout levels in the country behind Minnesota and one of the biggest turnout increases in the country. [2] Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans narrowly control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. However, Democrats control most statewide executive offices and have won the last two gubernatorial races. [3]
The incumbent Governor of Wisconsin, Democrat Tony Evers, was first elected in 2018 when he narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Scott Walker. [4] He was re-elected by a slightly larger margin in 2022, defeating conservative businessman Tim Michels. [5] With no incumbent and an even partisan lean, the race is widely seen as a tossup.
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