2026 Florida gubernatorial election

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2026 Florida gubernatorial election
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent Governor

Ron DeSantis
Republican



The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term.

Contents

Background

Though Florida has leaned Republican at the state level in the 21st century, having consistently elected Republicans to the governorship in particular since 1998, the state has seen a considerable rightward political shift in recent years. In 2022, incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected with a 19.4% lead, a considerable improvement from his razor-thin 0.4-point victory four years earlier.[ citation needed ] This was followed two years later by Republican Donald Trump winning his adoptive home state with a 13% lead as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, building upon his 3.3% margin of victory in 2020 and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtime swing-state status. [1]

Eligibility and requirements

Article IV, Section 5(b), of the Florida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must: [2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Byron Donalds

Executive officials

State senators

State representatives

Ashley Moody (declined)

Individuals

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Casey
DeSantis		Byron
Donalds		Matt
Gaetz		Ashley
Moody		Jeanette
Nuñez		Jimmy
Patronis		Wilton
Simpson		Francis
Suarez		Michael
Waltz		OtherUndecided
Victory Insights [14] January 26–27, 2025850 (LV)± 3.5%–34%––––5%–––61%
–31%––4%–3%1%––60%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research [15] 		June 8–9, 2024366 (RV)± 3.3%43%19%13%14%–5%–––7% [b] –
Victory Insights [16] April 3–6, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.9%–21%13%––3%2%–5%14% [c] 43%
University of North Florida [17] October 23 – November 4, 2023788 (LV)± 3.77%22%9%9%6%2%3%1%1%1%6% [d] 40%

Casey DeSantis vs. Matt Gaetz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Casey
DeSantis		Matt
Gaetz		OtherUndecided
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research [18] April 15–17, 2024372 (RV)± 3.3%38%16%20%26%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Independents

Filed paperwork

Publicly expressed interest

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [28] Solid RJanuary 23, 2025
Inside Elections [29] Solid RFebruary 6, 2025

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [30] October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 3.98%48%41%11%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 7%
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 14%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

    References

    1. ↑ "Florida Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 5, 2025.
    2. ↑ "Article IV, Florida Constitution". Ballotpedia . Retrieved May 13, 2023.
    3. ↑ Leonard, Kimberly; Matat, Stephany (February 25, 2025). "Rep. Byron Donalds, backed by Trump, says he's running for Florida governor". Associated Press . Retrieved February 25, 2025.
    4. ↑ Calder, Rich (November 23, 2024). "Ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz teases run for Florida governor". New York Post . Retrieved November 24, 2024.
    5. 1 2 Wilson, Kirby (January 7, 2025). "Matt Gaetz: 'I am starting to think about running for governor'". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved January 8, 2025.
    6. ↑ Little, Jim (November 14, 2024). "Campaign to replace Matt Gaetz in Congress starting to take shape". Pensacola News Journal . Retrieved November 18, 2024.
    7. ↑ Wilson, Kirby. "DeSantis declines to back Trump's pick for governor, floats wife, Casey". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved February 25, 2025.
    8. 1 2 Neely, Samantha (November 25, 2024). "Can DeSantis run in 2026? Matt Gaetz and others who may get in race for Florida governor". Tallahassee Democrat . Retrieved November 28, 2024.
    9. 1 2 3 Ogles, Jacob (January 29, 2025). "Byron Donalds holds massive lead in poll on gubernatorial contenders". Florida Politics . Retrieved February 17, 2025.
    10. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (January 18, 2025). "2026 cash chase begins for Ashley Moody before Senate swearing-in". Florida Politics . Retrieved February 14, 2025.
    11. ↑ Dixon, Matt (February 20, 2025). "Trump backs Rep. Byron Donalds in his likely run for Florida governor in 2026". NBC News . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
    12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dixon, Matt (February 26, 2025). "Florida leaders line up to endorse Byron Donalds on Day 1". Florida Politics . Retrieved February 26, 2025.
    13. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (May 8, 2024). "After Gainesville pizza problem, Ric Flair endorses Ashley Moody for Governor". Florida Politics.
    14. ↑ Victory Insights
    15. ↑ Florida Atlantic University/
      Mainstreet Research
    16. ↑ Victory Insights
    17. ↑ University of North Florida
    18. ↑ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
    19. 1 2 3 4 Wilson, Kirby (January 10, 2025). "Who's running for Florida governor? How the 2026 field is shaping up". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved January 10, 2025.
    20. ↑ Man, Anthony (September 21, 2024). "Dissatisfied with his party's potential candidates, Democratic state senator may run for Florida governor". Sun Sentinel. Archived from the original on September 21, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
    21. ↑ Hanks, Douglas (August 21, 2024). "Miami-Dade's Democratic mayor won big this week. Is a run for Florida governor next?" . Miami Herald. Archived from the original on August 22, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
    22. ↑ Graham, Gwen. "I'm taking some time to figure out what I should do next. Thank you for believing in me and supporting me". X. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
    23. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (January 25, 2025). "Nikki Fried confirms she will not run for Governor in 2026". Florida Politics . Retrieved January 25, 2025.
    24. ↑ Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios . Retrieved November 27, 2024.
    25. ↑ Adragna, Anthony (December 17, 2024). "Moskowitz brushes aside FEMA reports". Politico . Retrieved December 17, 2024. 'I am staying in Congress and running for re-election,' Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said
    26. ↑ Of Elections, Florida Division (June 26, 2024). "Candidate Tracking System". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
    27. ↑ Leonard, Kimberly (December 12, 2024). "John Morgan on how he'd run for gov". Politico . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
    28. ↑ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
    29. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 7, 2025.
    30. ↑ Cygnal (R)

    Official campaign websites

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