2026 Florida gubernatorial election

Last updated

2026 Florida gubernatorial election
Flag of Florida.svg
  2022 November 3, 20262030 
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent Governor

Ron DeSantis
Republican



The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek election to a third consecutive term.

Contents

Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in Florida since Lawton Chiles was re-elected Governor in 1994.

Background

A heavily populated South Atlantic state with a large and increasingly conservative Latino American population and the northern parts lying in the Bible Belt, Florida is considered to be a moderately to strongly red state, having not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 nor a Democrat for president since 2012 and having moved significantly rightward in the last decade. In 2022, incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin, a considerable improvement from his 0.4-point victory four years earlier in the gubernatorial election during the 2018 blue wave. This was followed two years later by Republican Donald Trump winning his adoptive home state by a 13% margin as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, improving his 3.4% margin of victory in 2020 and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtime swing-state status.[ citation needed ] Republicans also control all statewide offices, a large majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature.

Eligibility and requirements

Article IV, Section 5(b) of the Florida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must: [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Announcement pending

  • James Fishback, CEO of Azoria [5]

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Withdrawn

  • Bill Reicherter, real estate agent, candidate for state house in 2024, and candidate for state senate in 2022 [9]

Declined

Endorsements

Byron Donalds

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State executive officials

  • Carlos Beruff, former chair of the Florida Constitution Revision Commission (2017–2018) [13]

State senators

State representatives

Party officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations
Ashley Moody (declined)
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds
Paul
Renner
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [44] [A] September 16–18, 2025506 (RV)29%9%62%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Collins vs. Byron Donalds vs. Paul Renner vs. James Fishback

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Collins
Byron
Donalds
James
Fishback
Paul
Renner
Undecided
The American Promise [45] November 17–19, 2025800 (LV)± 3.46%1%43%0%2%54%
Victory Insights (R) [46] November 11–13, 2025600 (LV)1%45%1%3%49%
St. Pete Polls [47] [B] October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%4%39%3%54%
12%52%36%
The American Promise [48] September 4–5, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%2%40%2%54%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis
Byron
Donalds
Matt
Gaetz
Ashley
Moody
Jeanette
Nuñez
Jimmy
Patronis
Wilton
Simpson
Francis
Suarez
Michael
Waltz
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls [47] [B] October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%21%47%36%
Targoz Market Research [44] [A] September 16–18, 2025510 (RV)26%23%2%9% [b] 39%
University of North Florida [49] July 14–22, 2025797 (RV)± 3.9%32%29%8%1%2%10% [c] 18%
St. Pete Polls [50] [51] [B] July 8–10, 2025831 (LV)± 3.4%27%35%3%2% [d] 32%
Targoz Market Research [52] [53] [A] May 5–7, 2025516 (RV)29%28%10%7%4%5%4% [e] 13%
Targoz Market Research [52] [54] [A] April 15–22, 2025619 (RV)28%22%8%9%4%7%4% [e] 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [55] February 26–27, 2025600 (LV)± 5.0%30%34%3%33%
Victory Insights (R) [56] January 26–27, 2025850 (LV)± 3.5%34%5%61%
31%4%3%1%60%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[57]
June 8–9, 2024366 (RV)± 3.3%43%19%13%14%5%7% [f]
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[58]
April 15–17, 2024372 (RV)± 3.3%38%16%20% [g] 26%
Victory Insights (R) [59] April 3–6, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.9%21%13%3%2%5%14% [h] 43%
University of North Florida [60] October 23 – November 4, 2023788 (LV)± 3.8%22%9%9%6%2%3%1%1%1%6% [i] 40%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Dayna Marie Foster, mathematics teacher [63]

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

David Jolly

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators
  • 62 state legislators [j]
Local officials
Jerry Demings

U.S. representatives

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Pizzo
Daniella Levine
Cava
Gwen
Graham
David
Jolly
Lauren
Book
Angie
Nixon
Shevrin
Jones
Fentrice
Driskell
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research [52] [53] [A] May 5–7, 2025396 (RV)32%13%10%7%6%4%7%21%
Targoz Market Research [52] [54] [A] April 15–22, 2025464 (RV)41%15%5%7%4%4%2%1%21%

Independent and third-party candidates

Independent candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Filed paperwork

Endorsements

Jason Pizzo

Organizations

Libertarian Party

Filed paperwork

  • Scott Jewett, entrepreneur [75]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [76] Solid RSeptember 11, 2025
Inside Elections [77] Solid RAugust 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Safe RSeptember 4, 2025
Race to the WH [79] Lean ROctober 28, 2025

Polling

Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [80] October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%45%34%3% [k] 18%
Targoz Market Research [44] [A] September 16–18, 20251,118 (RV)± 2.8%36%32%4% [l] 28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D) [81] [C] September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%40%41%19%
AIF Center (R) [82] August 25–27, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%11%
Victory Insights (R) [83] June 7–10, 2025600 (LV)± 2.8%37%31%32%

Paul Renner vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Paul
Renner (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research [44] [A] September 16–18, 20251,123 (RV)± 2.8%34%33%5% [m] 28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D) [81] [C] September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%42%40%18%

Byron Donalds vs. Jerry Demings

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
Jerry
Demings (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [80] October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%45%33%5% [n] 17%
Hypothetical polling

Byron Donalds vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [52] [53] [A] May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%34%5%23%

Casey DeSantis vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [80] October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%47%34%5% [n] 14%

Casey DeSantis vs. Jerry Demings

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
Jerry
Demings (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [80] October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%47%36%6% [o] 11%

Casey DeSantis vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [52] [53] [A] May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%39%35%8%18%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [84] [D] August 25–27, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%51%38%11%
Cygnal (R) [85] October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%41%11%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Paul Renner with 7%; Jay Collins with 2%
  3. "Someone else" with 7%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  4. Paul Renner with 2%
  5. 1 2 Charles Burkett with 3%; Ashton Hayward with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 7%
  7. "Another candidate" with 20%
  8. "Someone else" with 14%
  9. "Someone else" with 6%
  10. Democratic legislators [69] [70] Republican legislators [69]
  11. "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 1%
  12. Jason Pizzo (I) with 4%
  13. Jason Pizzo (I) with 5%
  14. 1 2 "Someone else" and "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refusal" with 1%
  15. "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Florida Politics
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Jolly's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy

References

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Official campaign websites