Trump carried the state with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote, which included a 1.2% winning margin over Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote. Trump consequently became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate to carry St. Lucie County since 1992, and the first to carry Jefferson and Monroe Counties since 1988; all three of these counties were last carried by George H. W. Bush.
This is the closest election contested by any of Trump's three Democratic opponents in his presidential bids, as the Florida electorate has decisively swung to the right in the Trump political era. Trump won a majority of the vote in the state in 2020 and won the state by double digits in 2024. Relatedly, this would be the last time Trump ran for president as a resident of another state (New York) rather than of Florida.
The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.[7][8] The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen."[9] The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.[10]
The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor Stephen Dinan. The Washington Times cohosted the debate.[14] The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field.[15] On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign."[16] This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.[17]
In early polling conducted in late 2015, Trump started with strong momentum and won almost every poll against Clinton by margins varying from 2 to 8 points. In March 2016, Trump's early momentum seemed to slow, as Clinton won every poll until June 2016, when Trump won a poll 45% to 44%. Most polling conducted throughout the summer was favorable to Clinton, but both candidates were neck and neck in late August and early September, with neither having a consistent lead. From mid September to October 20, Clinton won every poll but one. In the last weeks, polling was extremely close, with neither candidate taking the lead. The third to last and fourth to last poll ended in a tie, but Trump won the last poll 50% to 46%.[28] The average of the last three polls showed Trump ahead 47.3% to 46.7%, where the race was essentially tied.
Results
2016 United States presidential election in Florida[29]
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States
Despite losing the state, Clinton's 63.22% vote share in majority-HispanicMiami-Dade County remains the highest of any Democratic nominee since 1964. Clinton still lost the state despite outperforming Obama in Miami-Dade. The state's most populous county, Miami-Dade swung rightward over Trump's three elections, and by 2024 Trump outright won a majority of the vote in the county.
Clinton's gains in Miami-Dade were insufficient to win Florida, as Trump gained in most of the rest of the state. The state swung about 2% rightward from 2012, with Clinton’s gains among Hispanics and college-educated whites not enough to overcome Trump’s gains among non-college whites. Winning Florida alone would not have been sufficient for Clinton to win the Electoral College, but it would have been had Clinton also won at least one Rust Belt state (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin).
Clinton did not perform well enough in the state's most populous counties, particularly Broward and Palm Beach. Broward stayed static, with Clinton maintaining Obama’s 35% margin. Palm Beach outright swung rightward in 2016, and by 2024 Trump lost Palm Beach by less than 1%.[31]
Florida’s realignment
Florida may have already been shifting rightward as early as 2016. Democrats have not won a single federal statewide election in Florida since 2012. In the concurrent 2016 U.S. Senate election in Florida, incumbent Republican Marco Rubio won by over 7%.[32]Texas, another highly populous Southern state with a large Hispanic population, did swing leftward in 2016 unlike Florida.
As of 2024, this was the last presidential election in which Florida voted to the left of neighboring Georgia. In 2016, Georgia swung leftward by 2.7% despite not being seriously contested, while Florida swung rightward by 2%.
Georgia is a more highly-educated state than Florida, as well as more racially polarized. Its white voters without college degrees were already extremely Republican, while its white voters with college degrees got much bluer. Its Black voters also did not swing to Trump over Trump’s three runs.[31]
Florida had voted to the left of Georgia from 1996 to 2016. In 2020, Georgia voted Democratic while Florida voted Republican, for the first time since 1992. By 2024, Florida voted for Trump by 13%, while Georgia only narrowly voted for Trump by 2%.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.
2.94 pp 
