2016 United States Senate election in Idaho

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2016 United States Senate election in Idaho
Flag of Idaho.svg
←  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  →
  Mike Crapo 113th Congress.jpg Jerry Sturgill.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Mike Crapo Jerry SturgillRay Writz
Party Republican Democratic Constitution
Popular vote449,017188,24941,677
Percentage66.13%27.73%6.14%
2016 United States Senate election in Idaho results map by county.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Idaho by congressional district.svg
ID Senate 2016.svg
Crapo:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Sturgill:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Mike Crapo
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Crapo
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Idaho was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo won re-election to a fourth term in office. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Crapo (incumbent) 119,633 100.00%
Total votes119,633 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Jerry Sturgill, businessman [7]

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jerry Sturgill 26,471 100.00%
Total votes26,471 100.00%

Third Party and Independent Candidates

Constitution Party

Declared

Results

Results by county: Writz .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Writz--100% Writz--80-90% Writz--70-80% Writz--60-70% Writz--50-60% Writz/Pro-Life tie Writz & Pro-Life tie--50% Pro-Life Pro-Life--50-60% Pro-Life--60-70% Pro-Life--100% No votes No votes 2018 Idaho US Senate Constitution primary.svg
Results by county:
Writz
  •   Writz—100%
  •   Writz—80–90%
  •   Writz—70–80%
  •   Writz—60–70%
  •   Writz—50–60%
Writz/Pro-Life tie
  •   Writz & Pro-Life tie—50%
Pro-Life
  •   Pro-Life—50–60%
  •   Pro-Life—60–70%
  •   Pro-Life—100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Constitution primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Constitution Ray J. Writz 131 59.5%
Constitution Pro-Life 8940.5%
Total votes220 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Timothy Raty, paralegal and 2004 Libertarian State House candidate [10] [12]

General election

Debates

DatesLocationCrapoSturgillLink
October 23, 2016 Boise, Idaho ParticipantParticipant [13]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Crapo (R)		Jerry
Sturgill (D)		Ray
Writz (C)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [14] November 1–7, 2016612± 4.6%58%39%——3%
SurveyMonkey [15] October 31–November 6, 2016557± 4.6%58%36%——4%
SurveyMonkey [16] October 28–November 3, 2016498± 4.6%61%35%——4%
SurveyMonkey [17] October 27–November 2, 2016442± 4.6%60%34%——6%
SurveyMonkey [18] October 26–November 1, 2016394± 4.6%61%32%——7%
SurveyMonkey [19] October 25–31, 2016447± 4.6%61%34%——5%
Emerson College [20] October 21–23, 20161,023± 3.0%57%24%—12%7%
Dan Jones & Associates [21] August 18–31, 2016602± 4.0%57%20%4%4%15%
Dan Jones & Associates [22] July 5–16, 2016601± 4.0%57%20%4%4%15%
Lake Research Partners [23] July 5–10, 2016500± 4.4%37%35%2%—25%
Dan Jones & Associates [24] May 18–June 4, 2016603± 4.0%48%25%7%9%10%
Dan Jones & Associates [25] April 8–19, 2016603± 4.0%53%17%5%5%20%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Safe RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [28] Safe RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [29] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [30] Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Results

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2016 [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Crapo (incumbent) 449,017 66.13% −5.06%
Democratic Jerry Sturgill188,24927.73%+2.80%
Constitution Ray J. Writz41,6776.14%+2.26%
Total votes678,943 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Crapo won both congressional districts. [32]

DistrictCrapoSturgillRepresentative
1st 69%25% Raúl Labrador
2nd 63%30% Mike Simpson

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References

  1. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (August 18, 2014). "Crapo says he'll seek another term". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved August 29, 2014.
  2. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (May 12, 2015). "Crapo announces he'll run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved May 29, 2015.
  3. 1 2 3 "RRHElections Senate Rankings – April 2015". RRH Elections. April 18, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  4. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (June 10, 2015). "Fulcher endorses Crapo for re-election". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  5. ↑ Easley, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Labrador won't run for Senate". The Hill . Retrieved February 16, 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 "Official Primary Election Statewide Totals". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
  7. ↑ "Declaration for 2016" (PDF). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  8. ↑ Malloy, Chuck (July 5, 2015). "Democrats Have Issues with Crapo, But No Candidate". Idaho Politics Weekly. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  9. ↑ Brown, Nathan (May 13, 2015). "Crapo Announces Re-Election Bid, Campaign Team". Twin Falls Times-News . Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  10. 1 2 Brown, Nathan (August 12, 2015). "Federal Lands, Refugees and Regulations Drive Crapo Town Hall in Castleford". Twin Falls Times-News . Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  11. 1 2 "Idaho primary: Who's running for county, state, federal office". Idaho Statesman. March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2016.
  12. ↑ "July Quarterly and Termination Report" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 6, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  13. ↑ Full debate
  14. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  15. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  16. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  17. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  18. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  19. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  20. ↑ Emerson College
  21. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  22. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  23. ↑ Lake Research Partners
  24. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  25. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  26. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  27. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  28. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  29. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  30. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  31. ↑ "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
  32. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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