2016 United States Senate election in Ohio

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Ohio
Flag of Ohio.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
  Rob Portman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Ted Strickland photo (1).jpg
Nominee Rob Portman Ted Strickland
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote3,118,5671,996,908
Percentage58.03%37.16%

2016 United States Senate election in Ohio results map by county.svg
Map of the township level results of the 2016 United States Senate election in the State of Ohio.svg
2016 Ohio senate election results map by congressional district.svg
Portman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Strickland:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016. [1] Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.

Contents

Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.

Republican primary

Republican senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office. [2] He considered running for president in 2016, [3] [4] [5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it. [3] [6] He ultimately declined to run for president. [2] [7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election. [8] [9]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures) [11] [12]

Declined

Endorsements

Don Elijah Eckhart

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Don Elijah
Eckhart
Rob
Portman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [15] March 4–6, 2016638± 3.9%7%60%33%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Blackwell
Rob
Portman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [16] June 4–7, 2015411± 4.8%24%57%20%

Results

Results by county
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Portman
70-80%
80-90% Ohio Senate Republican primary results map by county, 2016.svg
Results by county
  Portman
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rob Portman (incumbent) 1,336,686 82.16%
Republican Don Elijah Eckhart290,26817.84%
Total votes1,626,954 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

P.G. Sittenfeld

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Governors

U.S. representatives (former)

Ohio state representatives (current)

Ohio state representatives (former)

Mayors

City Council members

  • Chris Seelbach, Cincinnati City Councilman [35]
  • Yvette Simpson, Cincinnati City Councilwoman [35]
  • Wendell Young, Cincinnati City Councilman [35]

County officials

Notable individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelli
Prather
P.G.
Sittenfeld
Ted
Strickland
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [15] March 4–6, 2016508± 4.4%6%16%50%28%
Public Policy Polling [45] January 12–14, 20161,138± ?10%10%61%18%
Public Policy Polling [16] June 4–7, 2015360± 5.2%13%65%22%

Results

Results by county
Strickland
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% Ohio Senate Democratic primary, 2016.svg
Results by county
  Strickland
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ted Strickland 742,676 65.04%
Democratic P.G. Sittenfeld254,23222.26%
Democratic Kelli Prather144,94512.69%
Total votes1,141,853 100.00%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist [46]

Results

Green primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Joe DeMare 3,123 100.00%
Total votes3,123 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Rob Portman

Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

Governors

U.S. senators (current and former)

U.S. representatives (current and former)

Statewide officials

Diplomats

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Ted Strickland

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Ohio state senators

Ohio state representatives (current)

Ohio state representatives (former)

Mayors

City Council members

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Debates

DatesLocationPortmanStricklandLink
October 14, 2016 Youngstown, Ohio ParticipantParticipant [113]
October 17, 2016 Columbus, Ohio ParticipantParticipant [114]
October 20, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio ParticipantParticipant [115]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [116] Lean RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [117] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [118] Likely RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [119] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [120] Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [121] November 1–7, 20162,860± 4.6%57%39%4%
SurveyMonkey [122] Oct 31–Nov 6, 20162,530± 4.6%57%39%4%
Emerson College [123] November 4–5, 2016900± 3.2%49%28%11%12%
The Columbus Dispatch [124] Oct 27–Nov 5, 20161,151± 2.9%58%37%5%
CBS News/YouGov [125] November 2–4, 20161,189± 4.1%52%39%3%6%
SurveyMonkey [126] Oct 28–Nov 3, 20162,004± 4.6%58%39%3%
SurveyMonkey [127] Oct 27–Nov 2, 20161,728± 4.6%57%40%3%
Quinnipiac University [128] Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016589± 4.0%56%38%6%
SurveyMonkey [129] Oct 26–Nov 1, 20161,586± 4.6%57%39%4%
SurveyMonkey [130] October 25–31, 20161,823± 4.6%55%40%5%
Emerson College [131] October 26–27, 2016800± 3.4%49%35%4%12%
Suffolk University [132] October 17–19, 2016500± 4.4%46%31%6%14%
Quinnipiac University [133] October 10–16, 2016624± 3.9%54%41%1%4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [134] October 8–16, 20161,307± 0.5%56%39%5%
CNN/ORC [135] October 10–15, 2016774 LV± 3.5%56%40%2%
890 RV55%40%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [136] October 10–12, 2016724 LV± 3.6%55%37%3%5%
1,007 RV± 3.1%54%36%3%6%
Emerson College [137] October 10–12, 2016600± 3.9%47%30%6%16%
Baldwin Wallace University [138] October 9–11, 20161,152± 3.0%48%36%16%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid [139] October 7–10, 20161,304± 3.0%51%37%12%
CBS News/YouGov [140] October 5–7, 2016997± 3.9%49%38%2%10%
Public Policy Polling [141] October 5–6, 2016782± 3.5%51%36%12%
Monmouth University [142] October 1–4, 2016405± 4.9%54%39%2%5%
Quinnipiac University [143] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016497± 4.4%55%38%7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research [144] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016800± 4.0%51%39%5%5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [145] September 22–23, 2016850± 3.4%44%36%20%
TargetSmart/William & Mary [146] September 15–22, 2016652 LV± 3.4%47%32%4%17%
821 RV44%34%4%18%
FOX News [147] September 18–20, 2016737 LV± 3.5%51%37%1%10%
806 RV50%37%1%10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps [148] September 10–19, 2016400± 4.0%51%34%4%11%
Suffolk University [149] September 12–14, 2016500± 4.4%39%31%5%23%
CNN/ORC [150] September 7–12, 2016769 LV± 3.0%58%37%5%
895 RV56%38%5%
Bloomberg/Selzer [151] September 9–12, 2016802± 3.5%53%36%3%7%
Quinnipiac University [152] Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016775± 3.5%51%40%1%8%
Public Policy Polling [153] August 26–27, 20161,134± 3.0%48%39%13%
Emerson College [154] August 25–27, 2016800± 3.4%40%25%10%25%
Monmouth University [155] August 18–21, 2016402± 4.9%48%40%4%8%
CBS News/YouGov [156] August 17–19, 2016997± 3.9%46%39%4%11%
Quinnipiac University [157] July 30–August 7, 2016812± 3.4%49%40%1%10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [158] August 3–7, 2016889± 3.3%48%43%1%8%
Public Policy Polling [159] July 22–24, 20161,334± 2.7%43%38%19%
Suffolk University [160] July 18–20, 2016500± 4.4%37%33%6%23%
CBS News/YouGov [161] July 13–15, 20161,104± 3.5%41%40%4%14%
Quinnipiac University [162] June 30–July 11, 2016955± 3.2%47%40%1%9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [163] July 5–10, 2016848± 3.4%44%44%2%10%
Public Policy Polling [164] June 22–23, 2016708± 3.7%40%39%21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps [165] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%40%43%17%
Quinnipiac University [166] June 8–19, 2016971± 3.1%42%42%1%11%
Public Policy Polling [167] June 8–9, 2016781± 3.4%46%42%12%
Quinnipiac University [168] April 27–May 8, 20161,042± 3.0%42%43%1%14%
Public Policy Polling [169] April 26–27, 2016799± 3.2%38%38%1%23%
Hart Research Associates [170] April 5–7, 2016500± 3.2%47%45%8%
Public Policy Polling [15] March 4–6, 20161,248± 2.8%40%41%19%
Quinnipiac University [171] February 16–20, 20161,539± 2.5%42%44%14%
Baldwin Wallace University [172] February 11–20, 2016825± 3.4%44%40%16%
Democracy Corps [173] October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%47%47%6%
Quinnipiac University [174] Sept 25–Oct 5, 20151,180± 2.9%43%46%1%8%
Harstad Strategic Research [175] September 10–16, 2015813± 3.4%43%46%11%
Quinnipiac University [176] August 7–18, 20151,096± 3.0%41%44%1%10%
Quinnipiac University [177] June 4–15, 20151,191± 2.8%40%46%1%13%
Public Policy Polling [16] June 4–7, 2015859± 3.3%43%41%15%
Quinnipiac University [178] March 17–28, 20151,077± 3.0%39%48%13%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) [179] March 2–3, 2015946± 3.2%45%45%10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
P.G.
Sittenfeld (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [15] March 4–6, 20161,248± 2.8%42%30%27%
Quinnipiac University [180] February 16–20, 20161,539± 2.5%48%29%1%22%
Baldwin Wallace University [172] February 11–20, 2016825± 3.4%51%26%23%
Quinnipiac University [181] September 25 – October 5, 20151,180± 2.9%49%27%1%18%
Quinnipiac University [182] August 7–18, 20151,096± 3.0%46%25%1%22%
Quinnipiac University [183] June 4–15, 20151,191± 2.8%49%24%1%25%
Public Policy Polling [16] June 4–7, 2015859± 3.3%46%28%26%
Quinnipiac University [178] March 17–28, 20151,077± 3.0%47%24%1%28%
Public Policy Polling [184] March 2–3, 2015946± 3.2%50%31%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Blackwell (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [16] June 4–7, 2015859± 3.3%36%46%18%

Results

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016 [185]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rob Portman (incumbent) 3,118,567 58.03% +1.18%
Democratic Ted Strickland 1,996,90837.16%−2.24%
Independent Tom Connors93,0411.73%N/A
Green Joseph R. DeMare88,2461.64%N/A
Independent Scott Rupert77,2911.44%N/A
Independent James Stahl (write-in)1110.00%N/A
Total votes5,374,164 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. [186]

DistrictPortmanStricklandRepresentative
1st 60%36% Steve Chabot
2nd 65%31% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 36%59% Joyce Beatty
4th 69%26% Jim Jordan
5th 66%30% Bob Latta
6th 66%29% Bill Johnson
7th 66%29% Bob Gibbs
8th 72%24% Warren Davidson
9th 43%51% Marcy Kaptur
10th 60%36% Mike Turner
11th 22%73% Marcia Fudge
12th 62%34% Pat Tiberi
13th 48%46% Tim Ryan
14th 61%34% David Joyce
15th 61%34% Steve Stivers
16th 62%32% Jim Renacci

Analysis

Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run. [187] [188] Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.

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References

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