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Toomey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McGinty: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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Government |
The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. [1] [2] With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.
As of 2023, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. This is also the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Pennsylvania won a majority of Pennsylvania's counties.
Five-term senator Arlen Specter, a longtime moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, and ran for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Toomey had previously run for the seat in 2004, narrowly losing to Specter in the Republican primary. Specter later died in 2012.
After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority. [3] [4] [5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She then went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003. [6] McGinty faced 2010 nominee Sestask and Mayor of Braddock, future Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania and holder of this Senate seat John Fetterman in the primary.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Pat Toomey | 1,342,941 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,342,941 | 100.00% |
A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh. [113]
A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, in Harrisburg. [114]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Vodvarka | John Fetterman | Katie McGinty | Joe Sestak | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy | April 24–25, 2016 | 942 | ± 3.2% | – | 14% | 39% | 34% | – | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived April 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 21–23, 2016 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 3% | 15% | 39% | 33% | – | 11% |
Monmouth University Archived April 21, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 17–19, 2016 | 302 | ± 5.6% | – | 4% | 39% | 39% | – | 18% |
Franklin & Marshall College | April 11–18, 2016 | 510 | ± 5.3% | – | 8% | 27% | 38% | 2% | 25% |
Harper Polling Archived April 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 3–4, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | – | 9% | 31% | 41% | – | 19% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 14–20, 2016 | 408 | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | 14% | 31% | 2% | 46% |
Harper Polling Archived March 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.6% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 33% | – | 35% |
Harper Polling Archived January 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | January 22–23, 2016 | 640 | ± 3.8% | – | 11% | 28% | 33% | – | 28% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | – | 14% | 22% | 29% | – | 35% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 298 | ± ? | – | – | 13% | 16% | 5% | 66% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ed Pawlowski | Joe Sestak | Josh Shapiro | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robert Morris University Archived June 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 8–16, 2015 | ? | ± ? | 11.1% | 44.7% | — | — | 44.3% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 173 | ± 7.45% | 12% | 42% | 8% | — | 39% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kathleen Kane | Joe Sestak | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | February 22–23, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.38% | 47% | 24% | — | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie McGinty | 669,774 | 42.50% | |
Democratic | Joe Sestak | 513,221 | 32.57% | |
Democratic | John Fetterman | 307,090 | 19.49% | |
Democratic | Joseph Vodvarka | 85,837 | 5.45% | |
Total votes | 1,575,922 | 100.00% |
Dates | Location | Toomey | McGinty | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 17, 2016 | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 24, 2016 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [116] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [117] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report [118] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos [119] | Lean D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics [120] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Katie McGinty (D) | Edward Clifford (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,845 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 49% | — | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 2,685 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | November 3–5, 2016 | 931 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 47% | — | 1% | 6% |
Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–4, 2016 | 1,033 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | — | — | 11% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | October 30–November 4, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived November 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 2–3, 2016 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 6% | — | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 2,454 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,016 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | — | — | 12% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 31–November 2, 2016 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 2,177 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
Public Policy Polling | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 1,050 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | — | — | 10% |
Monmouth University | October 29–November 1, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 47% | 3% | — | 6% |
CNN/ORC | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 799 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | — | 1% | 1% |
917 RV | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | — | 1% | 2% | ||
Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | — | 1% | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 2, 2016 | 2,078 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 2,255 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 26–30, 2016 | 652 LV | ± 5.1% | 35% | 47% | 1% | 2% | 16% |
863 RV | ± 4.4% | 33% | 43% | — | 1% | 23% | ||
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 25–30, 2016 | 3,217 | ± 1.7% | 41% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 26–28, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 44% | — | 2% | 13% |
Emerson College | October 25–26, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 45% | — | 7% | 5% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived October 29, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 20–26, 2016 | 420 | ± 5.5% | 41% | 41% | — | 1% | 17% |
New York Times Upshot/Siena College Archived October 31, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 23–25, 2016 | 824 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
Emerson College | October 17–19, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | — | 5% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 10–16, 2016 | 660 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | — | — | 6% |
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived September 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,449 | ± 0.5% | 47% | 47% | — | — | 6% |
Bloomberg/Selzer | October 7–11, 2016 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | — | 2% | 4% |
The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,457 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 12% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 4–9, 2016 | 764 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 5–7, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | — | 1% | 15% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 3–6, 2016 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | — | 2% | 6% |
Monmouth University | September 30–October 3, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | 3% | — | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 28–October 2, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 6.1% | 35% | 41% | 2% | — | 22% |
813 RV | ± 4.8% | 31% | 36% | — | 11% | 22% | ||
Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 27–October 2, 2016 | 535 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 42% | — | — | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | September 27–28, 2016 | 886 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 40% | 9% | — | 16% |
42% | 44% | — | — | 14% | ||||
CNN/ORC | September 20–25, 2016 | 771 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
895 RV | ||||||||
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | September 23, 2016 | 949 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
Harper Polling Archived October 1, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 21–22, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 42% | 8% | — | 8% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | September 19–23, 2016 | 486 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 40% | — | — | 20% |
Mercyhurst University | September 12–23, 2016 | 420 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 10–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 12% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | September 12–16, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 19% |
Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 29–September 7, 2016 | 778 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 1% | 7% |
CBS News/YouGov | August 30–September 2, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | — | 2% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 30–31, 2016 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 44% | — | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,194 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | — | — | 14% |
Monmouth University | August 26–29, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 45% | 6% | — | 8% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 25–29, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 5.6% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
736 RV | ± 4.6% | 37% | 36% | — | — | 27% | ||
Emerson College | August 25–28, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 39% | — | 5% | 10% |
GBA Strategies | August 21–28, 2016 | 881 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | — | 8% | 3% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 815 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 3–7, 2016 | 834 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 1% | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | July 31–August 4, 2016 | 772 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | — | 2% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | July 29–August 1, 2016 | 389 LV | ± 6.3% | 38% | 39% | — | — | 23% |
661 RV | ± 4.8% | 30% | 38% | — | — | 32% | ||
Public Policy Polling | July 29–31, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 2.7% | 42% | 41% | — | — | 17% |
Suffolk University Archived August 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | July 25–27, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 43% | — | 1% | 19% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 982 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 1% | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–10, 2016 | 829 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | 2% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 39% | — | — | 21% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 46% | 38% | — | — | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 950 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 40% | — | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 42% | — | — | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | June 3–5, 2016 | 1,106 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | — | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% |
Quinnipiac University Archived April 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 38% | — | 1% | 12% |
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 34% | — | 2% | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 39% | — | — | 13% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 21% | — | — | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 36% | — | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 25–October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 31% | — | 1% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived October 25, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 34% | — | — | 18% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 35% | 28% | — | — | 38% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 28, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 32% | — | 1% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30–June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | John Fetterman (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 49% | 31% | 2% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 36% | — | 16% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 14% | — | 49% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 34% | — | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Joe Sestak (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University Archived April 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 39% | 1% | 10% |
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 41% | — | 13% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 18% | — | 48% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 1% | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived October 25, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | — | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 29% | — | 31% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 28, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 33% | 1% | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 31% | — | 34% |
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
Robert Morris University Archived June 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 8–16, 2015 | 529 | ± 4.5% | 28.5% | 34.2% | — | 37.3% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 48% | 35% | 1% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 17–23, 2015 | 597 | ± 4.2% | 34% | 29% | — | 37% |
Quinnipiac University Archived February 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | Jan. 22–Feb. 1, 2015 | 881 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 35% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 40% | 36% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
Harper Polling Archived January 4, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 23, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | May 30 – June 4, 2013 | 1,032 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Chris Carney (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Vincent Hughes (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Kathleen Kane (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 44% | 38% | — | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 42% | — | 19% |
Harper Polling Archived January 4, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 44% | — | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 46% | — | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Chris Matthews (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Michael Nutter (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Ed Pawlowski (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 31% | 2% | 16% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 52% | 28% | 1% | 19% |
Franklin & Marshall College | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 34% | 23% | — | 43% |
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 34% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 54% | 30% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Ed Rendell (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 41% | 44% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Josh Shapiro (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 55% | 27% | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 32% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Pat Toomey (R) | Seth Williams (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 33% | — | 23% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Pat Toomey (incumbent) | 2,951,702 | 48.77% | -2.24% | |
Democratic | Katie McGinty | 2,865,012 | 47.34% | -1.65% | |
Libertarian | Edward T. Clifford III | 235,142 | 3.89% | N/A | |
Total votes | 6,051,856 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold | |||||
County [122] | Katie McGinty Democratic | Patrick J. Toomey Republican | Edward T. Clifford III Libertarian | Margin | Total Votes Cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Adams | 14,593 | 30.72% | 30,492 | 64.19% | 2,418 | 5.09% | 15,899 | 33.47% | 47,503 |
Allegheny | 357,450 | 55.25% | 261,316 | 40.39% | 28,260 | 4.37% | -96,134 | -14.86% | 647,026 |
Armstrong | 8,387 | 26.71% | 20,793 | 66.22% | 2,220 | 7.07% | 12,406 | 39.51% | 31,400 |
Beaver | 34,263 | 41.12% | 44,000 | 52.81% | 5,058 | 6.07% | 9,737 | 11.69% | 83,321 |
Bedford | 4,356 | 18.58% | 17,739 | 75.68% | 1,344 | 5.73% | 13,383 | 57.10% | 23,439 |
Berks | 77,028 | 42.93% | 95,466 | 53.21% | 6,919 | 3.86% | 18,438 | 10.28% | 179,413 |
Blair | 15,107 | 27.57% | 36,533 | 66.68% | 3,150 | 5.75% | 21,426 | 39.11% | 54,790 |
Bradford | 6,985 | 27.33% | 16,574 | 64.85% | 2,000 | 7.83% | 9,589 | 37.52% | 25,559 |
Bucks | 157,709 | 46.46% | 175,898 | 51.82% | 5,845 | 1.72% | 18,189 | 5.36% | 339,452 |
Butler | 28,715 | 29.72% | 62,425 | 64.62% | 5,465 | 5.66% | 33,710 | 34.89% | 96,605 |
Cambria | 21,894 | 34.90% | 36,948 | 58.90% | 3,886 | 6.20% | 15,054 | 24.00% | 62,728 |
Cameron | 593 | 27.53% | 1,390 | 64.53% | 171 | 7.94% | 797 | 37.00% | 2,154 |
Carbon | 10,086 | 35.75% | 16,360 | 57.98% | 1,770 | 6.27% | 6,274 | 22.24% | 28,216 |
Centre | 35,487 | 46.45% | 36,527 | 47.82% | 4,378 | 5.73% | 1,040 | 1.36% | 76,392 |
Chester | 127,552 | 47.10% | 133,662 | 49.36% | 9,588 | 3.54% | 6,110 | 2.26% | 270,802 |
Clarion | 4,931 | 28.27% | 11,310 | 64.83% | 1,204 | 6.90% | 6,379 | 36.57% | 17,445 |
Clearfield | 9,454 | 27.80% | 22,128 | 65.06% | 2,429 | 7.14% | 12,674 | 37.26% | 34,011 |
Clinton | 5,511 | 36.34% | 8,702 | 57.38% | 952 | 6.28% | 3,191 | 21.04% | 15,165 |
Columbia | 9,819 | 34.94% | 16,292 | 57.97% | 1,991 | 7.08% | 6,473 | 23.03% | 28,102 |
Crawford | 11,047 | 29.65% | 24,472 | 65.68% | 1,740 | 4.67% | 13,425 | 36.03% | 37,259 |
Cumberland | 44,796 | 36.74% | 71,638 | 58.75% | 5,509 | 4.52% | 26,842 | 22.01% | 121,943 |
Dauphin | 62,551 | 48.61% | 63,740 | 49.54% | 2,383 | 1.85% | 1,189 | 0.92% | 128,674 |
Delaware | 163,377 | 55.64% | 126,300 | 43.01% | 3,948 | 1.34% | -37,077 | -12.63% | 293,625 |
Elk | 4,509 | 31.48% | 8,703 | 60.76% | 1,111 | 7.76% | 4,194 | 29.28% | 14,323 |
Erie | 56,846 | 46.32% | 60,948 | 49.66% | 4,930 | 4.02% | 4,102 | 3.34% | 122,724 |
Fayette | 20,547 | 38.62% | 29,699 | 55.82% | 2,958 | 5.56% | 9,152 | 17.20% | 53,204 |
Forest | 708 | 29.82% | 1,502 | 63.27% | 164 | 6.91% | 794 | 33.45% | 2,374 |
Franklin | 17,827 | 25.54% | 48,658 | 69.72% | 3,309 | 4.74% | 30,831 | 44.17% | 69,794 |
Fulton | 1,025 | 15.23% | 5,456 | 81.06% | 250 | 3.71% | 4,431 | 65.83% | 6,731 |
Greene | 5,692 | 36.93% | 8,826 | 57.26% | 896 | 5.81% | 3,134 | 20.33% | 15,414 |
Huntingdon | 5,105 | 26.06% | 13,078 | 66.76% | 1,406 | 7.18% | 7,973 | 40.70% | 19,589 |
Indiana | 12,592 | 33.32% | 22,245 | 58.86% | 2,955 | 7.82% | 9,653 | 25.54% | 37,792 |
Jefferson | 4,160 | 21.54% | 13,706 | 70.95% | 1,451 | 7.51% | 9,546 | 49.42% | 19,317 |
Juniata | 2,153 | 20.66% | 7,657 | 73.47% | 612 | 5.87% | 5,504 | 52.81% | 10,422 |
Lackawanna | 53,936 | 52.93% | 40,519 | 39.76% | 7,455 | 7.32% | -13,417 | -13.17% | 101,910 |
Lancaster | 89,922 | 37.07% | 142,774 | 58.85% | 9,909 | 4.08% | 52,852 | 21.79% | 242,605 |
Lawrence | 15,289 | 37.96% | 22,674 | 56.29% | 2,317 | 5.75% | 7,385 | 18.33% | 40,280 |
Lebanon | 19,079 | 31.01% | 39,386 | 64.02% | 3,060 | 4.97% | 20,307 | 33.01% | 61,525 |
Lehigh | 77,232 | 48.25% | 76,216 | 47.61% | 6,627 | 4.14% | -1,016 | -0.63% | 160,075 |
Luzerne | 56,477 | 42.89% | 66,551 | 50.54% | 8,650 | 6.57% | 10,074 | 7.65% | 131,678 |
Lycoming | 14,187 | 28.06% | 33,015 | 65.29% | 3,365 | 6.65% | 18,828 | 37.23% | 50,567 |
Mckean | 3,987 | 24.73% | 11,530 | 71.52% | 605 | 3.75% | 7,543 | 46.79% | 16,122 |
Mercer | 19,193 | 37.05% | 30,567 | 59.00% | 2,046 | 3.95% | 11,374 | 21.95% | 51,806 |
Mifflin | 4,031 | 22.13% | 13,089 | 71.87% | 1,093 | 6.00% | 9,058 | 49.73% | 18,213 |
Monroe | 34,280 | 51.32% | 30,743 | 46.03% | 1,768 | 2.65% | -3,537 | -5.30% | 66,791 |
Montgomery | 237,353 | 54.90% | 189,574 | 43.85% | 5,431 | 1.26% | -47,779 | -11.05% | 432,358 |
Montour | 2,898 | 33.89% | 5,066 | 59.25% | 586 | 6.85% | 2,168 | 25.36% | 8,550 |
Northampton | 64,151 | 45.86% | 72,172 | 51.59% | 3,566 | 2.55% | 8,021 | 5.73% | 139,889 |
Northumberland | 11,117 | 31.28% | 21,826 | 61.42% | 2,592 | 7.29% | 10,709 | 30.14% | 35,535 |
Perry | 4,962 | 23.53% | 14,898 | 70.64% | 1,231 | 5.84% | 9,936 | 47.11% | 21,091 |
Philadelphia | 560,421 | 81.79% | 116,714 | 17.03% | 8,030 | 1.17% | -443,707 | -64.76% | 685,165 |
Pike | 9,329 | 36.39% | 15,192 | 59.27% | 1,113 | 4.34% | 5,863 | 22.87% | 25,634 |
Potter | 1,387 | 18.01% | 5,990 | 77.79% | 323 | 4.19% | 4,603 | 59.78% | 7,700 |
Schuylkill | 19,539 | 31.45% | 37,757 | 60.77% | 4,832 | 7.78% | 18,218 | 29.32% | 62,128 |
Snyder | 4,299 | 26.40% | 10,867 | 66.74% | 1,116 | 6.85% | 6,568 | 40.34% | 16,282 |
Somerset | 8,340 | 23.34% | 25,470 | 71.28% | 1,923 | 5.38% | 17,130 | 47.94% | 35,733 |
Sullivan | 867 | 28.03% | 2,020 | 65.31% | 206 | 6.66% | 1,153 | 37.28% | 3,093 |
Susquehanna | 5,535 | 28.76% | 11,996 | 62.33% | 1,716 | 8.92% | 6,461 | 33.57% | 19,247 |
Tioga | 3,992 | 21.97% | 13,418 | 73.83% | 764 | 4.20% | 9,426 | 51.87% | 18,174 |
Union | 6,092 | 34.81% | 10,568 | 60.39% | 841 | 4.81% | 4,476 | 25.58% | 17,501 |
Venango | 6,989 | 30.11% | 14,581 | 62.83% | 1,638 | 7.06% | 7,592 | 32.71% | 23,208 |
Warren | 5,124 | 28.14% | 12,130 | 66.60% | 958 | 5.26% | 7,006 | 38.47% | 18,212 |
Washington | 38,133 | 37.79% | 56,952 | 56.44% | 5,824 | 5.77% | 18,819 | 18.65% | 100,909 |
Wayne | 7,487 | 31.42% | 14,538 | 61.01% | 1,803 | 7.57% | 7,051 | 29.59% | 23,828 |
Westmoreland | 62,981 | 34.94% | 107,532 | 59.65% | 9,745 | 5.41% | 44,551 | 24.72% | 180,258 |
Wyoming | 4,154 | 31.79% | 7,844 | 60.03% | 1,068 | 8.17% | 3,690 | 28.24% | 13,066 |
York | 69,394 | 33.68% | 126,350 | 61.33% | 10,271 | 4.99% | 56,956 | 27.65% | 206,015 |
Pennsylvania | 2,865,012 | 47.34% | 2,951,702 | 48.77% | 235,142 | 3.89% | 86,690 | 1.43% | 6,051,856 |
Patrick Joseph Toomey Jr. is an American businessman and politician who served as a United States senator from Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he served three terms as the U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district, from 1999 to 2005.
Joseph Ambrose Sestak Jr. is an American politician and retired U.S. Navy officer. He represented Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011 and was the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate in 2010. A three-star vice admiral, he was the highest-ranking military official ever elected to the United States Congress at the time of his election. He was a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2020 election, launching his campaign on June 23, 2019 and ending it on December 1, 2019, subsequently endorsing Amy Klobuchar.
John Karl Fetterman is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from Pennsylvania since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania, from 2006 to 2019 and as the 34th lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania from 2019 to 2023. Generally described as a progressive and a populist, Fetterman advocates healthcare as a right, criminal justice reform, abolishing capital punishment, raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, and legalizing cannabis.
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania. It is headquartered in Harrisburg and is the largest political party in the state. Its chair is Senator Sharif Street.
Pennsylvania has been considered a swing state throughout its entire history as it only voted for the nationwide loser on only 10 occasions. Meaning it has voted for the national winner 83% of the time, as of 2020. Although, it generally supported Republicans between the Civil War and New Deal eras, as it voted Republican in every election between 1860 and 1932, except for 1912, when the Republican vote was split. Even then, the state's strong Republican ties meant that it backed Republican-turned-Progressive Theodore Roosevelt. The state backed a Democrat in 1936 for the first time since 1856. Pennsylvania generally leaned Democratic since the 1990s, as it backed the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992 except in 2016, when it was won by Republican candidate Donald Trump with a plurality.
The 2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2010, during the 2010 midterm elections. Incumbent Republican-turned-Democrat U.S. Senator Arlen Specter ran for reelection to a sixth term, but lost in the Democratic primary to Joe Sestak. Republican nominee Pat Toomey then won the seat.
The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of 2022, this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia.
Kathleen Alana McGinty is a retired American politician and former state and federal environmental policy official. She served as an environmental advisor to Vice President Al Gore and President Bill Clinton. Later, she served as Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection in the cabinet of Governor Ed Rendell.
The Democratic Party primary for the 2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on May 18, 2010, when Congressman Joe Sestak defeated incumbent Arlen Specter, which led to the end of Specter's five-term Senatorial career. Just before the start of the primary campaign, after serving in the Senate as a Republican for 29 years, Specter had switched to the Democratic Party in anticipation of a difficult primary challenge by Pat Toomey; Toomey ultimately defeated Sestak in the general election. Political observers and journalists described the race between Specter and Sestak as one of the bitterest and most-watched of all the 2010 primary elections.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.
The 2016 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2016. The presidential election, House elections, 14 gubernatorial elections, and many state and local elections were held concurrently.
The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.
The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2018 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with other midterm elections at the federal, state and local levels. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, the winners of which will serve six-year terms beginning with the 118th United States Congress. Two special elections were held to complete unexpired terms. While pundits considered the Republican Party a slight favorite to gain control of the Senate, Senate Democrats outperformed expectations and expanded the majority they had held since 2021, gaining one seat for a functioning 51–49 majority.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in the 2022 midterms.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the 18 U.S. representatives from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, one from each of the state's 18 congressional districts.
The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro defeated State Senator Doug Mastriano by 14.8 percentage points to succeed term-limited incumbent governor Tom Wolf (D). Primaries were held on May 17, 2022. Shapiro won the Democratic nomination after running unopposed and Mastriano won the Republican nomination with 44% of the vote. Mastriano's nomination drew attention due to his far-right political views.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will take place on April 23, 2024. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.
The 2022 Pennsylvania state elections took place on November 8, 2022. On that date, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania held elections for the following offices: Governor and Lieutenant Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, Pennsylvania State Senate, Pennsylvania House of Representatives, and various other government leadership positions.