2016 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2016 United States Senate election in Arizona
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  John McCain official portrait 2009 (cropped 2).jpg Ann Kirkpatrick, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg Gary swing.jpg
Nominee John McCain Ann Kirkpatrick Gary Swing
Party Republican Democratic Green
Popular vote1,359,2671,031,245138,634
Percentage53.71%40.75%5.48%
2016 United States Senate election in Arizona results map by county.svg
2016 US Senate election in Arizona results by congressional district.svg
2016 AZ Senate.svg
McCain:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Kirkpatrick:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

John McCain
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John McCain
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate in other states and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections.

Contents

The Democratic primary was held on March 22, 2016, while the Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016. [1] After serving in the Arizona State Legislature and U.S. House of Representatives for a number of years, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office.

After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire, [2] McCain subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet. [3] On April 7, 2015, he announced that he would run for re-election. [4] McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he ultimately defeated challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary. [5] [6]

McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing. Although McCain won reelection by double digits, this was the closest margin of his Senate career. It was also his first election in which he failed to win the traditionally Democratic counties of Coconino and Pima. As of 2024, this was the last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona. Kirkpatrick would later successfully run again for the U.S. House of Representatives in Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2018 and 2020.

Republican primary

John McCain at a campaign rally with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in December 2015 John McCain by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
John McCain at a campaign rally with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in December 2015
Kelli Ward at her primary election night rally on August 30, 2016 Kelli Ward (28731091884).jpg
Kelli Ward at her primary election night rally on August 30, 2016

John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In September 2013 he hinted that he might retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said, "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off." [2] He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election. [7] By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser [8] and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization." [9]

In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. He faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who some felt was the weaker opponent. McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenger in 2016. [5] A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents. [10] An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below). [11]

Further compounding matters for McCain was his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party. [5] After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing. [12] Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election, [5] with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war". [6] However, McCain still had a large warchest – $1.7 million as of June 2014 – and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary. [5]

By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of his running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor." [6] In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016." [3] At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015. [13]

In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists. [14] [15] The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races. [14] Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain. [14] Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted. [14] [16] Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing". [14]

Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert had been widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, agreed that if one of them decided to run against McCain, the other would not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote wouldn't be split between them. [17] Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but was considered the less likely of the two to run – he had much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and admitted that his wife was "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate. [17] Salmon later stated that he would not challenge McCain in the primary. [18]

In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election [19] and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]." [20] Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race, [21] [22] with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run. [23]

McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election. [4]

Candidates

Declared

3* Clair Van Steenwyk, talk radio host, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate for AZ-08 in 2014 [24]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

John McCain

Individuals

Senators

Governors

Mayors

Organizations

Alex Meluskey (withdrew)

Individuals

Kelli Ward

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		Kelli
Ward		Clair Van
Steenwyk		Alex
Meluskey		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015300± 5.7%44%31%———25%
Behavior Research Center [131] October 24 – November 5, 2015577± 4.7%41%11%2%1%—45%
Behavior Research Center [132] January 6–17, 2016398± 4.1%47%11%1%1%1% [133] 39%
Public Policy Polling [134] May 13–15, 2016443± 4.7%39%26%2%4%3% [135] 27%
41%41%———17%
NMB Research [136] July 11, 2016500± 4.38%47%22%2%6%—23%
Data Orbital LLC [137] August 11, 2016500±4.38%50%29%———17%
CNN/ORC [138] August 18–23, 2016413± 5.0%55%29%4%—1%3%
Hypothetical polling

with Jan Brewer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		Jan
Brewer		OtherUndecided
The Polling Company [139] April 11–12, 2014600± 4.1%29%47.7%—23.3%

with Christine Jones

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		Christine
Jones		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015300± 5.7%48%27%—25%

with Matt Salmon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		Matt
Salmon		OtherUndecided
The Polling Company [139] April 11–12, 2014600± 4.1%30.3%48.2%—21.5%
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015300± 5.7%42%40%—18%

with David Schweikert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		David
Schweikert		OtherUndecided
The Polling Company [139] April 11–12, 2014600± 4.1%33.9%40.1%—26%
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015300± 5.7%40%39%—20%

Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		A different
Republican		OtherUndecided
The Polling Company [139] April 11–12, 2014600± 4.1%30.5%60.7%—8.8%

Someone more conservative

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain		Someone more
conservative		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015300± 5.7%37%51%—12%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McCain--50-60% McCain--40-50% Ward--50-60% Ward--40-50% Arizona U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  McCain—50–60%
  McCain—40–50%
  Ward—50–60%
  Ward—40–50%
Republican primary results [140]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John McCain 302,532 51.7%
Republican Kelli Ward 235,98839.2%
Republican Alex Meluskey31,1595.5%
Republican Clair Van Steenwyk21,4763.6%
Republican Sean Webster (write-in)1750.0%
Total votes591,330 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Ann Kirkpatrick at a campaign event with supporters in Phoenix, Arizona Ann Kirkpatrick by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Ann Kirkpatrick at a campaign event with supporters in Phoenix, Arizona

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ann Kirkpatrick

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results [140]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 333,586 99.8%
Democratic Axel Bello (write-in)5080.2%
Total votes334,094 100.0%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Green primary results [140]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Gary Swing (write-in) 238 100.0%
Total votes238 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results [140]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Merissa Hamilton (write-in) 1,286 100.0%
Total votes1,286 100.0%

General election

Debates

DateLocationMcCainKirkpatrickLink
October 10, 2016 Phoenix, Arizona ParticipantParticipant [153]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [154] Lean RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [155] Likely RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [156] Likely RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [157] Safe RNovember 8, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [158] November 1–7, 20162,609± 4.6%50%45%—5%
Insights West [159] November 4–6, 2016392± 4.9%50%42%—9%
Data Orbital [160] November 4–6, 2016550± 4.1%56%44%—0%
SurveyMonkey [161] October 31–November 6, 20162,322± 4.6%50%45%—5%
SurveyMonkey [162] October 28–November 3, 20161,748± 4.6%50%45%—5%
Data Orbital [163] November 1–2, 2016550± 4.1%52%41%2%6%
SurveyMonkey [164] October 27–November 2, 20161,461± 4.6%50%44%—6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [165] October 30–November 1, 2016719 LV± 3.7%55%39%5%2%
948 RV± 3.2%55%38%5%2%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid [166] October 28–November 1, 20161,113± 3.0%52%40%—8%
CNN/ORC [167] October 27–November 1, 2016769 LV± 3.5%54%41%1%3%
867 RV54%41%3%1%
SurveyMonkey [168] October 26–November 1, 20161,320± 4.6%50%44%—6%
Emerson College [169] October 29–31, 2016700± 3.6%46%40%6%9%
SurveyMonkey [170] October 25–31, 20161,457± 4.6%49%46%—5%
Data Orbital [171] October 29–30, 2016550± 4.1%49%39%3%10%
CBS News/YouGov [172] October 26–28, 2016994± 4.3%43%38%8%11%
Monmouth University [173] October 21–24, 2016401± 4.9%50%40%5%4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [174] October 8–16, 20161,028± 0.5%48%45%—6%
Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite [175] October 10–15, 2016660± 4.2%52%40%8%0%
Highground [176] October 14, 2016400± 4.9%45%35%8%9%
Emerson College [177] October 2–4, 2016600± 3.6%52%36%7%5%
Insights West [178] September 12–14, 2016484± 4.5%53%35%1%11%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [179] September 6–8, 2016649± 3.8%57%38%1%4%
Public Policy Polling [180] August 26–28, 2016837± 3.0%43%43%—15%
CNN/ORC [138] August 18–23, 2016809 LV± 3.5%52%39%2%2%
842 RV
Public Policy Polling [181] June 22–23, 2016691± 3.7%42%40%—19%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner – Democracy Corps [182] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%44%42%—14%
Behavior Research Center [183] June 6–19, 2016448± 4.7%40%31%—29%
Public Policy Polling [184] June 8–9, 2016747± 3.6%41%43%—16%
Public Policy Polling [134] May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3%42%36%—23%
Behavior Research Center [185] April 4–11, 2016564± 4.2%42%42%—16%
The Merrill Poll [186] March 7–11, 2016701± 3.7%41%40%3%16%
Behavior Research Center [187] January 6–17, 2016590± 4.1%38%37%—25%
Strategies 360 [188] December 4–9, 2015504± 4.4%51%36%—13%
Behavior Research Center [189] October 24–November 5, 2015577± 3.8%37%31%—32%
Gravis Marketing [190] August 13–16, 20151,433± 2.6%48%35%—17%
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4.0%42%36%—23%
Hypothetical polling

with John McCain

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Richard
Carmona (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%40%34%—25%
Public Policy Polling [191] February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35%41%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%40%36%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Gabrielle
Giffords (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [191] February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35%42%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Janet
Napolitano (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [191] February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%44%36%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
McCain (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%42%36%—22%

with Christine Jones

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Christine
Jones (R)		Richard
Carmona (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%36%42%—22%

with Matt Salmon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Matt
Salmon (R)		Richard
Carmona (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%43%35%—21%

with David Schweikert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Schweikert (R)		Richard
Carmona (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%39%39%—22%

with Kelli Ward

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelli
Ward (R)		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		OtherUndecided
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [192] August 27, 20161,244± 2.8%53%19%—29%
Public Policy Polling [134] May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3%37%35%—28%
Gravis Marketing [190] August 13–16, 20151,433± 2.6%43%38%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kelli
Ward (R)		Richard
Carmona (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [130] May 1–3, 2015600± 4%36%39%—26%

Results

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016 [193]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John McCain (incumbent) 1,359,267 53.71% −5.36%
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 1,031,24540.75%+5.97%
Green Gary Swing138,6345.48%+4.03%
Write-in 1,5840.06%N/A
Total votes2,530,730 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

McCain won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.

DistrictMcCainKirkpatrickRepresentative
1st 48.4%45.3% Ann Kirkpatrick
Tom O'Halleran
2nd 48.8%45.6% Martha McSally
3rd 40.1%54.2% Raúl Grijalva
4th 63.8%27.6% Paul Gosar
5th 62.9%31.2% Matt Salmon
Andy Biggs
6th 59.5%35.3% David Schweikert
7th 22.6%71.8% Ruben Gallego
8th 60.7%32.7% Trent Franks
9th 47.8%46.6% Kyrsten Sinema

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona</span>

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Arizona</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Arizona</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego and Republican former news anchor Kari Lake are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election after one term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. This election was the first time since 1990 in which no third-party candidates appeared on the ballot in the House of Representatives elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 8, 2022, to determine the nine representatives of the state of Arizona. The elections coincided with the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and various other state and local elections. Despite losing the concurrent Senate and governor elections, the Republicans flipped both the 2nd and 6th congressional districts, making this the first time that the party controlled six seats in Arizona since 2004. Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2.

References

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  162. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  163. ↑ Data Orbital
  164. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  165. ↑ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  166. ↑ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
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  168. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  169. ↑ Emerson College
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  171. ↑ Data Orbital
  172. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  173. ↑ Monmouth University
  174. ↑ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived September 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
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  179. ↑ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  180. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  181. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  182. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner – Democracy Corps
  183. ↑ Behavior Research Center
  184. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  185. ↑ Behavior Research Center
  186. ↑ The Merrill Poll
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  188. ↑ Strategies 360 Archived June 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
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  193. ↑ "Official Canvass. 2016 General Election - November 08, 2016" (PDF). State of Arizona. Retrieved February 5, 2023.

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