2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2022 Arizona Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

←  2020 (special) November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028  →

Nominee Mark Kelly Blake Masters Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,322,027 1,196,308 Percentage 51.39% 46.51%

County results Congressional district results Kelly:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80% Masters:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election Mark Kelly Democratic Elected U.S. senator Mark Kelly Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. ^[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters. ^{[2] [3] [4]}

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. ^[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. ^{[6] [7]} Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022. ^[8]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator ^{[9] [10]}

Endorsements

Mark Kelly

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward) ^[11]
• Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward) ^[11]

U.S Attorneys

• Paul K. Charlton, former United States Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) ^[12]

Local officials

• John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–) (Republican) ^[12]

Organizations

• 314 Action ^[13]
• End Citizens United ^[14]
• Feminist Majority PAC ^[15]
• Forward Party ^[16]
• Jewish Dems ^[17]
• March On ^[18]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America ^[19]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund ^[20]
• Population Connection Action Fund ^[21]
• Renew America Movement ^[22]
• VoteVets.org ^[23]

Results

Democratic primary results ^{[24] [25]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark Kelly (incumbent)	589,400	100.0%
Total votes			589,400	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital ^[26]

Eliminated in primary

• Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General ^[27]
• Jim Lamon, solar power businessman ^[28]
• Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard ^[29]
• Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission ^[30]

Did not file

• Craig Brittain ^[31]
• Robert Paveza, software engineer ^[32]

Declined

• Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives ^[33]
• Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district ^{[34] [35]}
• Doug Ducey, outgoing Governor of Arizona ^[36]
• Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor) ^[37]
• Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain ^[38]
• Martha McSally, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
• Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 ^[39]
• Kimberly Yee, State Treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election) ^{[40] [41]}

Endorsements

Mark Brnovich

Individuals

• Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator ^[42]
• Mark Levin, lawyer and host of Life, Liberty & Levin ^{[43] [44] [42]}

Newspapers

• Casa Grande Dispatch ^[45]

Jim Lamon

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Jeff DeWit, Chief Financial Officer of NASA (2018–2020) and State Treasurer of Arizona (2015–2018) ^[46]
• Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018) ^[46]
• Mark A. Morgan, Acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2019–2021) and Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol (2016–2017) ^[46]
• Keith Schiller, Director of Oval Office Operations (2017) ^[46]
• Matthew Whitaker, Acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019) ^[46]
• Chad Wolf, Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021) ^[46]

Statewide officials

• Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona (2009–2015) ^[46]

State legislators

• Judy Burges, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present) and state senator from the 22nd district (2012–2019) ^[46]
• Frank Carroll, state representative from the 22nd district (2019–present) ^[46]
• David Livingston, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019) from the 22nd district ^[46]
• Kelly Townsend, state senator (2021–present) and state representative (2013–2021) from the 16th district ^[46]

Individuals

• Brandon Judd, President of the National Border Patrol Council ^[46]

Organizations

• Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs ^[46]
• Arizona Police Association (APA) ^[47]
• Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) ^[48]
• Glendale Law Enforcement Association ^[46]
• Grassroot Grandmas ^[46]
• National Association of Police Organizations ^[46]
• National Border Patrol Council ^[46]

Former^{[ clarification needed ]}

• Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020) ^[49] (switched endorsement to Blake Masters)

Blake Masters

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020) ^[50]
• David M. McIntosh, Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001) ^[51]
• Robert C. O'Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021) ^[52]
• Kash Patel, chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense ^[50]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) ^[53]

U.S. Senators

• Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present) ^[54]

U.S. Representatives

• Jim Banks, Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present) ^[55]
• Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023) ^[56]
• Matt Gaetz, Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present) ^[55]
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present) ^[57]

Individuals

• Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator ^[58]
• Peter Thiel, venture capitalist ^[59]
• Susie Wiles, political consultant and advisor to Donald Trump ^[60]

Organizations

• Club for Growth ^[51]
• Republicans for National Renewal ^[61]
• Tea Party Express ^[62]

Rejected by candidate

• Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer ^{[63] [64]}

Justin Olson

Organizations

• Stand for Health Freedom ^[65]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Mark Brnovich	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire	Justin Olson	Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
Real Clear Politics [66]	July 27 – August 1, 2022	August 2, 2022	14.5%	22.0%	37.0%	8.5%	3.3%	17.7%	Masters +15.0

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Brnovich	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire	Justin Olson	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [67]	July 30 – August 1, 2022	1,064 (LV)	± 2.9%	16%	24%	39%	7%	4%	–	9%
Emerson College [68]	July 28–30, 2022	600 (LV)	± 3.9%	14%	22%	40%	12%	3%	–	9%
Rasmussen Reports [69]	July 27–28, 2022	710 (LV)	± 4.0%	16%	19%	31%	10%	3%	6%	15%
OH Predictive Insights [70]	July 27, 2022	502 (LV)	± 4.4%	12%	21%	36%	5%	3%	–	22%
Battleground Connect (R) [71]	July 26–27, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.7%	16%	30%	28%	8%	6%	–	12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [72]	July 25–27, 2022	1,071 (LV)	± 2.9%	15%	27%	35%	8%	6%	–	10%
Battleground Connect (R) [73]	July 17–18, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.7%	16%	33%	28%	7%	2%	–	14%
Cygnal (R) [74]	July 12–13, 2022	419 (LV)	± 4.8%	18%	20%	30%	5%	2%	–	25%
Battleground Connect (R) [75]	July 7–9, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.7%	16%	29%	27%	4%	–	–	24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [76]	July 2–7, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	13%	14%	23%	5%	2%	–	44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners [77]	July 5–6, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	10%	14%	26%	5%	0%	–	45%
OH Predictive Insights [78]	June 30 – July 2, 2022	515 (LV)	± 4.3%	14%	18%	25%	6%	2%	–	35%
Public Policy Polling (D) [79]	June 28, 2022	595 (LV)	± 4.0%	15%	10%	29%	5%	–	–	41%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [80]	June 7–9, 2022	1,077 (LV)	± 2.9%	24%	17%	29%	4%	4%	–	22%
Data Orbital (R) [81]	June 1–3, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	18%	20%	15%	–	–	12%	36%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [82] [upper-alpha 1]	May 17–18, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	18%	18%	22%	7%	2%	–	34%
Cygnal (R) [83] [upper-alpha 2]	April 28–30, 2022	– (LV)	–	19%	20%	19%	7%	2%	–	33%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [84]	April 25–28, 2022	1,064 (LV)	± 3.0%	24%	25%	19%	8%	3%	–	21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [85] [upper-alpha 3]	April 21–24, 2022	– (LV)	–	22%	25%	16%	6%	–	–	31%
OH Predictive Insights [86]	April 4–5, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	21%	16%	9%	6%	3%	–	45%
Data Orbital (R) [87]	April 1–3, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	20%	26%	10%	7%	4%	–	33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [88]	March 26–27, 2022	264 (LV)	± 6.0%	11%	10%	6%	4%	–	8%	61%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [89] [upper-alpha 1]	March 13–14, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	14%	14%	16%	3%	1%	–	52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners [90]	March 9–12, 2022	433 (LV)	± 4.7%	20%	15%	15%	3%	1%	–	45%
Data Orbital (R) [87]	March 2022	– (LV)	–	23%	17%	14%	4%	5%	–	37%
Data Orbital (R) [87]	February 11–13, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	22%	17%	15%	5%	5%	–	37%
co/efficient (R) [91]	February 6–8, 2022	755 (LV)	± 3.6%	17%	13%	12%	3%	1%	11%	44%
OH Predictive Insights [92]	January 11–13, 2022	302 (RV)	± 5.6%	25%	7%	6%	11%	4%	–	47%
OH Predictive Insights [93]	November 1–8, 2021	252 (RV)	± 6.2%	27%	5%	9%	12%	2%	–	46%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [94] [upper-alpha 1]	October 26–28, 2021	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	26%	4%	14%	2%	2%	<1% [lower-alpha 3]	52%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [95] [upper-alpha 4]	September 9–12, 2021	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	41%	5%	7%	4%	–	–	43%
OH Predictive Insights [96]	September 7–12, 2021	311 (RV)	± 5.6%	27%	3%	6%	14%	–	–	51%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [94] [upper-alpha 1]	August 4–8, 2021	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	29%	7%	5%	3%	–	<1% [lower-alpha 3]	56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [97]	May 3–5, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	28%	–	1%	1%	–	–	61%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kirk Adams	Andy Biggs	Mark Brnovich	Doug Ducey	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire	Justin Olson	Other	Undecided
co/efficient (R) [91]	February 6–8, 2022	755 (LV)	± 3.6%	–	–	14%	13%	11%	11%	3%	1%	9%	38%
OH Predictive Insights [92]	January 11–13, 2022	302 (RV)	± 5.6%	–	–	13%	35%	4%	4%	9%	2%	–	34%
WPA Intelligence (R) [98] [upper-alpha 5]	April 5–6, 2021	505 (LV)	± 4.4%	–	46%	–	45%	–	–	–	–	–	9%
OH Predictive Insights [99]	March 8–12, 2021	690 (RV)	± 3.7%	2% [lower-alpha 4]	27%	–	–	–	2%	3%	–	–	67%
				6% [lower-alpha 5]	26%	–	–	–	2%	10%	–	–	56%
Data Orbital (R) [100] [upper-alpha 6]	February 17–19, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	2%	36%	–	–	1%	1%	3%	–	4%	53%

Results

Republican primary results by county

  Masters

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Lamon

•   30-40%

Republican primary results ^{[24] [25]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Blake Masters	327,198	40.24%
	Republican	Jim Lamon	228,467	28.10%
	Republican	Mark Brnovich	144,092	17.72%
	Republican	Michael McGuire	71,100	8.75%
	Republican	Justin Olson	41,985	5.16%
	Write-in		226	0.03%
Total votes			813,068	100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 ^[101] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters) ^[2]

Results

Libertarian primary results ^{[24] [102] [25]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Marc Victor	3,065	100.0%
Total votes			3,065	100.0%

General election

In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million. ^[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade , Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters. ^[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races. ^[105]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate. ^[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat. ^[107]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [108]	Tossup	October 27, 2022
Inside Elections [109]	Tilt D	October 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [110]	Lean D	October 19, 2022
Politico [111]	Tossup	October 27, 2022
RCP [112]	Tossup	October 25, 2022
Fox News [113]	Tossup	October 25, 2022
DDHQ [114]	Lean D	October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [115]	Lean D	October 25, 2022
The Economist [116]	Lean D	November 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Republican	Libertarian
P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
					Mark Kelly	Blake Masters	Marc Victor
1	October 6, 2022	Arizona PBS	Ted Simons	[117]	P	P	P

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017) ^[118]
• Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward) ^[11]
• Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward) ^[11]

U.S. Senators

• Alex Padilla, U.S. Senator from California (2021–present) ^[119]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present) ^[120]

U.S. Representatives

• Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2013–present) ^[121]

U.S. Attorneys

• Paul K. Charlton, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) ^[12]

State legislators

• Kirsten Engel, former state senator (2021) from the 10th district ^[121]
• Pete Hershberger, former state representative (2001–2008) from the 26th district (Republican) ^[122]
• Roberta Voss, former state representative (1997–2003) from the 19th district (Republican) ^[122]

Local officials

• Cathy Carlat, mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican) ^[12]
• Jack Dillenberg, mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican) ^[12]
• John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican) ^[12]
• Donald Huish, mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican) ^[12]
• Paul Johnson, former mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent) ^[122]
• Craig McFarland, mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican) ^[12]
• David Ortega, mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent) ^[12]
• Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present) ^[121]
• Chip Wilson, Mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican) ^[12]

Individuals

• Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States ^[123]
• Camila Cabello, singer ^[124]
• Kerry Washington, actress ^[124]

Labor unions

• Communications Workers of America ^[125]
• International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers ^[125]
• National Association of Social Workers ^[125]
• National Education Association ^[126]
• United Auto Workers ^[125]
• United Mine Workers of America ^[127]

Organizations

• 314 Action ^[13]
• BOLD Democrats ^[125]
• Brady Campaign ^[125]
• Common Defense PAC ^[125]
• End Citizens United ^[14]
• Equality Arizona ^[128]
• Feminist Majority PAC ^[15]
• Forward Party ^[129]
• Human Rights Campaign ^[130]
• J Street PAC ^[125]
• Jewish Dems ^[17]
• League of Conservation Voters ^[131]
• March On ^[18]
• MoveOn ^[125]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America ^[125]
• National Organization for Women ^[125]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare ^[125]
• Our Voice, Our Vote PAC ^[125]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund ^[20]
• Population Connection Action Fund ^[21]
• Progressive Turnout Project ^[125]
• Renew America Movement ^[22]
• Serve America PAC ^[125]
• Sierra Club ^[132]
• Stonewall Democrats ^[125]
• Voter Protection Project ^[125]
• VoteVets.org ^[23]

Blake Masters (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Duke Buchan, U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (2018–2021) ^[133]
• Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020) ^[50]
• David M. McIntosh, former Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001) ^[51]
• Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021) ^[52]
• Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense ^[50]
• Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021) and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017) ^[134]
• Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005) ^[133]
• Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019) ^[133]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) ^[53]
• Chad Wolf, Acting United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans (2019–2021) and Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (2019) ^[133]

U.S. Senators

• Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present) ^[135]
• Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present) ^[136]
• Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present) and former Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019) ^[54]
• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present) ^[137]
• Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019) ^[138]

U.S. Representatives

• Jim Banks, U.S. Representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present) ^[55]
• Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present) ^[139]
• Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023) ^[56]
• Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) and former Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016) ^[140] (Independent)
• Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present) ^[55]
• Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011-2013) ^[141]
• Debbie Lesko, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2018–present) ^[139]
• Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (R-TX) (1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-2013), candidate for President in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian) ^{[142] [143] [144]}
• David Schweikert, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2011-2013) ^[139]
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present) ^[57]

Governors

• Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015) and former secretary of state of Arizona (2003–2009) ^[145]
• Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018) ^[146]
• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) and former Arizona State Treasurer (2011–2015) ^[145]
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona (1991–1997) ^[145]

Local officials

• Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–present) ^[147]

Party officials

• Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present) ^[148]

Individuals

• Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator ^[58]
• Nick Fuentes, far-right livestreamer and white supremacist ^[149]
• Sean Hannity, host of Hannity and The Sean Hannity Show and conservative political commentator ^[150]
• Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor ^[151]
• Jack Posobiec, political activist ^[149]
• Dave Smith, comedian, podcaster, and co-host of Legion of Skanks ^[152] (Libertarian)
• Peter Thiel, venture capitalist ^[59]
• Marc Victor, former Libertarian nominee for Arizona's other Senate seat in 2012 ^[4] (Libertarian)

Labor unions

• National Border Patrol Council ^[153]

Organizations

• Arizona Republican Party ^[148]
• Campaign for Working Families ^[154]
• Center for Arizona Policy ^[155]
• Club for Growth ^[51]
• The Conservative Caucus ^[156]
• FreedomWorks for America ^[157]
• National Federation of Independent Business ^[158]
• National Right to Life Committee ^[159]
• NRA Political Victory Fund ^[160]
• Political Victory Fund ^[161]
• Republicans for National Renewal ^[61]
• Tea Party Express ^[62]
• Turning Point Action ^[162]

Rejected by candidate

• Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer ^{[63] [64]}

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Mark Kelly (D)	Blake Masters (R)	Undecided [lower-alpha 6]	Margin
RealClearPolitics [163]	October 30 – November 7, 2022	November 7, 2022	48.0%	48.3%	3.7%	Masters +0.3
FiveThirtyEight [164]	September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022	November 7, 2022	48.6%	47.1%	4.3%	Kelly +1.5
270ToWin [165]	November 3–7, 2022	November 7, 2022	47.9%	46.6%	5.5%	Kelly +1.3
Average			48.3%	47.2%	4.5%	Kelly +1.1

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Blake Masters (R)	Marc Victor (L)	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [166]	November 5–7, 2022	1,094 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	48%	1%	–	4%
Data Orbital (R) [167]	November 4–6, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	48%	47%	2%	1% [lower-alpha 7]	3%
Research Co. [168]	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	46%	2%	–	3%
Data for Progress (D) [169]	November 2–6, 2022	1,359 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	2%	–	–
Targoz Market Research [170]	November 2–6, 2022	560 (LV)	± 4.1%	50%	47%	2%	–	–
KAConsulting (R) [171] [upper-alpha 7]	November 2–3, 2022	501 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	46%	–	1%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [172]	November 2, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	48%	48%	2%	–	2%
HighGround Inc. [173]	November 1–2, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	45%	–	2% [lower-alpha 8]	6%
Remington Research Group (R) [174]	November 1–2, 2022	1,075 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	47%	2%	–	3%
Marist College [175]	October 31 – November 2, 2022	1,157 (RV)	± 4.1%	49%	45%	–	1% [lower-alpha 9]	8%
		1,015 (LV)	± 4.3%	50%	47%	–	1% [lower-alpha 10]	2%
Big Data Poll (R) [176]	October 31 – November 2, 2022	1,051 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	–	–	4%
Patriot Polling (R) [177]	October 30 – November 2, 2022	814 (RV)	–	49%	48%	–	–	4%
Civiqs [178]	October 29 – November 2, 2022	852 (LV)	± 4.2%	49%	49%	–	2% [lower-alpha 11]	1%
	November 1, 2022	Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters
Emerson College [179]	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	48%	3%	1% [lower-alpha 12]	1%
				48%	48%	3%	1% [lower-alpha 13]	–
The Phillips Academy [180]	October 29–30, 2022	985 (LV)	± 3.1%	47%	47%	2%	–	5%
Fox News [181]	October 26–30, 2022	1,003 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	45%	–	4% [lower-alpha 14]	5%
Wick Insights (R) [182]	October 26–30, 2022	1,122 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	47%	–	3% [lower-alpha 15]	1%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) [183] [upper-alpha 5]	October 24–26, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	46%	3%	–	–
OH Predictive Insights [184]	October 24–26, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	3%	–	3%
Siena College/NYT [185]	October 24–26, 2022	604 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	45%	1%	–	3%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co. [186] [upper-alpha 8]	October 19–26, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	44%	40%	–	5% [lower-alpha 16]	11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [172]	October 24–25, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	43%	6%	–	6%
co/efficient (R) [187]	October 20–21, 2022	1,111 (LV)	± 3.1%	47%	45%	4%	–	4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [188] [upper-alpha 9]	October 14–18, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	45%	2%	<1% [lower-alpha 17]	6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [189] [upper-alpha 10]	October 16–17, 2022	1,078 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	46%	3%	–	4%
Data for Progress (D) [190]	October 11–17, 2022	893 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	3%	–	4%
Wick Insights (R) [191]	October 8–14, 2022	1,058 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	46%	–	2% [lower-alpha 18]	3%
HighGround Inc. [192] [upper-alpha 11]	October 12–13, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	40%	5%	3% [lower-alpha 19]	10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [193]	October 11, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	46%	42%	5%	–	7%
Kurt Jetta (D) [194] [upper-alpha 12]	October 9–10, 2022	894 (RV)	–	54%	32%	–	–	15%
		551 (LV)		55%	38%	–	–	7%
Ascend Action (R) [195]	October 8–10, 2022	954 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	44%	–	5% [lower-alpha 20]	2%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [196] [upper-alpha 13]	October 8–10, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	4%	–	7%
OH Predictive Insights [197]	October 4–6, 2022	674 (LV)	± 3.8%	46%	33%	15%	–	7%
Big Data Poll (R) [198]	October 2–5, 2022	970 (LV)	± 3.1%	46%	45%	2%	–	7%
YouGov/CBS News [199]	September 30 – October 4, 2022	1,164 (RV)	± 3.8%	51%	48%	–	–	1%
CNN/SSRS [200]	September 26 – October 2, 2022	900 (RV)	± 4.4%	52%	42%	–	7% [lower-alpha 21]	–
		795 (LV)	± 4.6%	51%	45%	–	4% [lower-alpha 22]	–
Fox News [201]	September 22–26, 2022	1,008 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	40%	–	6% [lower-alpha 23]	9%
Suffolk University [202]	September 21–25, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	42%	2%	–	7%
Marist College [203]	September 19–22, 2022	1,260 (RV)	± 3.6%	51%	41%	–	–	8%
		1,076 (LV)	± 3.9%	50%	45%	–	–	5%
Data for Progress (D) [204]	September 15–19, 2022	768 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	2%	–	3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [205]	September 14–17, 2022	1080 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	45%	3%	–	5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [206]	September 8–15, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	42%	4%	–	4%
				52%	45%	–	–	3%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [196] [upper-alpha 13]	September 6–11, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	40%	6%	–	5%
Kurt Jetta (D) [207] [upper-alpha 12]	September 9–10, 2022	972 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	32%	–	–	15%
		563 (LV)		55%	35%	–	–	9%
OH Predictive Insights [208]	September 6–9, 2022	654 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	35%	6%	–	12%
Emerson College [209]	September 6–7, 2022	627 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	45%	–	3% [lower-alpha 24]	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [210]	September 6–7, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	39%	4%	–	12%
Echelon Insights [211]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (RV)	±4.5%	52%	37%	–	–	11%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [212]	August 24–27, 2022	1,074 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	44%	4%	–	4%
RMG Research [213]	August 16–22, 2022	750 (LV)	± 3.6%	50%	43%	–	–	7%
Fox News [214]	August 12–16, 2022	1,012 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	42%	–	2%	6%
Kurt Jetta (D) [215] [upper-alpha 12]	August 4–8, 2022	1,107 (A)	± 2.9%	48%	34%	–	–	19%
		877 (RV)	± 3.3%	50%	34%	–	–	16%
		512 (LV)	± 4.3%	54%	40%	–	–	7%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [216] [upper-alpha 14]	August 1–2, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	44%	–	–	7%
Beacon Research (D) [217] [upper-alpha 15]	July 5–20, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	34%	–	1%	13%
		504 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	39%	–	2%	8%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [218] [upper-alpha 1]	July 13–14, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	44%	–	–	7%
Change Research (D) [219] [upper-alpha 16]	June 24–27, 2022	705 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	39%	–	–	13%
Blueprint Polling (D) [220]	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	32%	–	–	19%
OH Predictive Insights [96]	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	35%	–	–	21%

Hypothetical polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Mark Brnovich (R)	Other	Undecided
Beacon Research (D) [217] [upper-alpha 15]	July 5–20, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	35%	1%	11%
		504 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	40%	2%	7%
Blueprint Polling (D) [220]	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	33%	–	18%
Data for Progress (D) [221]	January 21–24, 2022	1,469 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	–	4%
OH Predictive Insights [96]	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	39%	–	18%
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	36%	–	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Jim Lamon (R)	Other	Undecided
Beacon Research (D) [217] [upper-alpha 15]	July 5–20, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	34%	2%	14%
		504 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	40%	2%	9%
Change Research (D) [219] [upper-alpha 16]	June 24–27, 2022	705 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	41%	–	12%
Blueprint Polling (D) [220]	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	34%	–	18%
OH Predictive Insights [96]	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	36%	–	21%

Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Michael McGuire (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [96]	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	37%	19%
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	44%	35%	21%

Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Andy Biggs (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	36%	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Doug Ducey (R)	Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [221]	January 21–24, 2022	1,469 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	47%	4%

Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kelli Ward (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	36%	18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kari Lake (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	35%	19%

Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Jack McCain (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	43%	29%	28%

Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Kimberly Yee (R)	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [222]	May 3–5, 2021	935 (RV)	± 3.2%	45%	35%	19%

Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [223]	May 9–16, 2022	938 (RV)	± 3.3%	40%	39%	–	21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) [224]	March 26–27, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	41%	2%	12%
OH Predictive Insights [225]	March 7–15, 2022	753 (RV)	± 3.6%	37%	39%	–	24%
Change Research (D) [219] [upper-alpha 16]	March 2022	– (LV)	–	43%	46%	–	11%
OH Predictive Insights [92]	January 11–13, 2022	855 (RV)	± 3.4%	42%	38%	–	19%
OH Predictive Insights [93]	November 1–8, 2021	713 (RV)	± 3.7%	40%	39%	–	21%

Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R) [218] [upper-alpha 1]	July 13–14, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	48%	7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R) [218] [upper-alpha 1]	July 13–14, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	46%	8%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona ^[226]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Kelly (incumbent)	1,322,027	51.39%	+0.23%
	Republican	Blake Masters	1,196,308	46.51%	−2.30%
	Libertarian	Marc Victor (withdrawn)	53,762	2.09%	N/A
	Write-in		197	0.01%	-0.02%
Total votes			2,572,294	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County Mark Kelly Democratic Blake Masters Republican Marc Victor Libertarian Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % Apache 18,005 67.39 8,163 30.55 549 2.05 2 0.01 9,842 36.84 26,719 Cochise 20,002 42.57 25,539 54.35 1,383 2.94 67 0.14 -5,537 -11.78 46,991 Coconino 35,149 63.84 18,697 33.96 1,199 2.18 13 0.02 16,452 29.88 55,058 Gila 7,984 35.42 13,958 61.91 601 2.67 1 0.00 -5,974 -26.50 22,544 Graham 3,243 29.79 7,388 67.87 255 2.34 0 0.00 -4,145 -38.08 10,886 Greenlee 970 39.40 1,392 56.54 100 4.06 0 0.00 -422 -17.14 2,462 La Paz 1,711 30.94 3,656 66.11 160 2.89 3 0.05 -1,945 -35.17 5,530 Maricopa 809,573 52.19 710,491 45.80 31,099 2.00 63 0.00 99,082 6.39 1,551,226 Mohave 21,040 25.69 58,737 71.72 2,117 2.58 5 0.01 -37,697 -46.03 81,899 Navajo 18,724 46.08 20,970 51.61 927 2.28 9 0.02 -2,246 -5.53 40,630 Pima 248,230 61.95 144,936 36.17 7,544 1.88 15 0.00 103,294 25.78 400,725 Pinal 62,009 42.92 78,820 54.55 3,650 2.53 7 0.00 -16,811 -11.64 144,486 Santa Cruz 8,988 68.16 3,892 29.52 304 2.31 2 0.02 5,096 38.65 13,186 Yavapai 45,258 36.60 75,752 61.26 2,633 2.13 8 0.01 -30,494 -24.66 123,651 Yuma 21,141 45.66 23,917 51.66 1,241 2.68 2 0.00 -2,776 -6.00 46,301 Totals 1,322,027 51.39 1,196,308 46.51 53,762 2.09 197 0.01 125,719 4.89 2,572,294

By congressional district

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. ^[227]

District	Kelly	Masters	Representative
1st	52%	46%	David Schweikert
2nd	47%	51%	Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
			Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd	76%	21%	Ruben Gallego
4th	57%	41%	Greg Stanton
5th	44%	54%	Andy Biggs
6th	54%	44%	Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
			Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th	68%	30%	Raúl Grijalva
8th	46%	52%	Debbie Lesko
9th	38%	60%	Paul Gosar

See also

• 2022 United States Senate elections
• 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
• 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
• 2022 Arizona elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Paveza with <1%
4. Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
5. Response with candidates' job titles
6. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
7. "Refused" with 1%
8. "Some other candidate" with 2%
9. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
10. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
11. "Someone else" with 2%
12. "Someone else" with 1%
13. "Someone else" with 1%
14. "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
15. "Someone else" with 3%
16. "Someone else" with 5%
17. "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
18. "Someone else" with 2%
19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
20. "Another candidate" with 5%
21. "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
22. "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
23. "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
24. "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
2. This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
3. This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
4. This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
5. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
6. This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
7. Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
8. Poll conducted for Univision.
9. Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
10. This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
11. This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
12. This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
13. This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
14. This poll was sponsored by America Next
15. This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
16. This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

References

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External links

Official campaign websites

• Mark Kelly (D) for Senate
• Blake Masters (R) for Senate