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Hassan: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bolduc: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire. [1] The primary elections were held on September 13, 2022. [2] Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan was re-elected over Republican retired brigadier general Don Bolduc by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.1% that surpassed most polls. Hassan won her initial bid for this seat in 2016 by only 1,017 votes or 0.14%. [3] This election marked the first time a Democrat won re-election to New Hampshire's class 3 Senate seat.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Maggie Hassan (incumbent) | 88,146 | 93.77% | |
Democratic | Paul Krautmann | 3,629 | 3.86% | |
Democratic | John Riggieri | 1,680 | 1.79% | |
Write-in | 546 | 0.58% | ||
Total votes | 94,001 | 100.0% |
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Don Bolduc | Kevin Smith | Chuck Morse | Vikram Mansharamani | Bruce Fenton | |||||
1 | June 27, 2022 | NH Journal | Michael Graham Alicia Xanthopolous Haris Alic | Link [60] | P | P | P | P | P |
2 [61] | August 16, 2022 | Good Morning New Hampshire | Jack Heath | N/A | P | P | P | P | P |
3[ citation needed ] | August 24, 2022 | Newsmax | John Bachmann | P | P | P | N | P | |
4 | September 8, 2022 | New Hampshire Institute of Politics WMUR | [62] | P | P | P | P | P |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Don Bolduc | Bruce Fenton | Vikram Mansharamani | Chuck Morse | Kevin Smith | Other [b] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [63] | August 9–29, 2022 | August 31, 2022 | 37.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 19.0% | 3.5% | 32.0% | Bolduc +18.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Don Bolduc | Bruce Fenton | Vikram Mansharamani | Chuck Morse | Kevin Smith | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] | September 7–8, 2022 | 559 (LV) | – | 33% | 4% | 6% | 23% | 9% | – | 25% |
University of New Hampshire [65] | August 25–29, 2022 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 5% | 5% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 20% |
Saint Anselm College [66] | August 9–11, 2022 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 32% | 4% | 2% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 39% |
University of New Hampshire [67] | April 14–18, 2022 | 315 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 33% | 1% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | 58% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Don Bolduc | 52,629 | 36.91% | |
Republican | Chuck Morse | 50,929 | 35.71% | |
Republican | Kevin H. Smith | 16,621 | 11.65% | |
Republican | Vikram Mansharamani | 10,690 | 7.50% | |
Republican | Bruce Fenton | 6,381 | 4.47% | |
Republican | John Berman | 961 | 0.67% | |
Republican | Andy Martin | 920 | 0.64% | |
Republican | Tejasinha Sivalingam | 832 | 0.58% | |
Republican | Dennis Lamare | 773 | 0.54% | |
Republican | Edward Laplante | 723 | 0.51% | |
Republican | Gerard Beloin | 521 | 0.36% | |
Democratic | Maggie Hassan (incumbent) (write-in) | 316 | 0.22% | |
Write-in | 307 | 0.21% | ||
Total votes | 142,603 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [73] | Lean D | August 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections [74] | Tilt D | July 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] | Lean D | August 31, 2022 |
Politico [76] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
RCP [77] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News [78] | Lean D | September 20, 2022 |
DDHQ [79] | Lean D | October 24, 2022 |
538 [80] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
The Economist [81] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Maggie Hassan (D) | Don Bolduc (R) | Other [d] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [106] | October 28 – November 1, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.7% | 47.3% | 4.0% | Hassan +1.4 |
FiveThirtyEight [107] | September 23 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 48.8% | 46.6% | 4.6% | Hassan +2.2 |
270towin [108] | October 27 – November 4, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 49.2% | 46.0% | 4.8% | Hassan +3.2 |
Average | 48.9% | 46.6% | 4.5% | Hassan +2.3 |
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Don Bolduc (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phillips Academy [109] | November 5–6, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% [e] | 6% |
University of New Hampshire [110] | November 2–6, 2022 | 2,077 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 48% | 1% [f] | <1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [111] [A] | November 5, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 1% [g] | 2% |
Data for Progress (D) [112] | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,995 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 47% | 2% [h] | – |
Wick Insights (R) [113] | November 2–5, 2022 | 725 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 48% | 2% [i] | 1% |
Emerson College [114] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 45% | 3% [j] | 3% |
50% | 46% | 5% [k] | – | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [115] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 4% [l] | 3% |
Saint Anselm College [116] | October 28–29, 2022 | 1,541 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | 2% [m] | 3% |
co/efficient (R) [117] | October 25–26, 2022 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 45% | 3% [n] | 7% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov [118] | October 14–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 41% | 3% [o] | 5% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [119] [A] | October 23, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 3% [p] | 3% |
Emerson College [120] | October 18–19, 2022 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | 3% [q] | 4% |
50% | 45% | 5% [r] | – | ||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [121] [B] | October 17–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) [122] | October 14–19, 2022 | 1,392 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 3% [s] | 4% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [123] [C] | October 2–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | 2% | 1% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [124] | September 26–30, 2022 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 45% | 4% [t] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [125] | September 23–30, 2022 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | 3% [u] | 4% |
Saint Anselm College [126] | September 27–28, 2022 | 901 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | 4% [v] | 4% |
Suffolk University [127] | September 23–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 41% | 3% [w] | 7% |
American Research Group [128] | September 15–19, 2022 | 555 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
University of New Hampshire [129] | September 15–19, 2022 | 870 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 41% | 5% [x] | 5% |
Emerson College [130] | September 14–15, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 4% | 5% |
Data for Progress (D) [131] [y] | June 22 – July 8, 2022 | 903 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) [132] [D] | June 24–27, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
University of New Hampshire [67] | April 14–18, 2022 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 1% | 6% |
Phillips Academy [133] | April 4–8, 2022 | 533 (A) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
471 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 54% | 39% | – | 7% | ||
Saint Anselm College [134] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 39% | 7% | 10% |
Saint Anselm College [135] | January 11–12, 2022 | 1,215 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 36% | 10% | 12% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [136] | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 14% |
University of New Hampshire [137] | October 14–18, 2021 | 979 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 42% | 6% | 6% |
University of New Hampshire [138] | July 15–19, 2021 | 1,540 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 41% | 1% | 6% |
University of New Hampshire [139] | February 18–22, 2021 | 1,676 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 39% | 2% | 7% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Kelly Ayotte
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire [137] | October 14–18, 2021 | 979 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 43% | 7% | 5% |
University of New Hampshire [138] | July 15–19, 2021 | 1,540 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | 3% | 3% |
University of New Hampshire [139] | February 18–22, 2021 | 1,676 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 43% | 3% | 6% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Bruce Fenton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Bruce Fenton (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire [67] | April 14–18, 2022 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 40% | 0% | 14% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Chuck Morse
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Maggie Hassan (D) | Chuck Morse (R) | Other [z] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [140] | December 10, 2021 – April 18, 2022 | April 21, 2022 | 44.3% | 40.0% | 15.7% | Hassan +4.3 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Chuck Morse (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) [141] | June 22 – July 8, 2022 | 903 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
University of New Hampshire [67] | April 14–18, 2022 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 1% | 9% |
Phillips Academy [133] | April 4–8, 2022 | 533 (A) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
471 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
Saint Anselm College [134] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 36% | 10% | 11% |
Saint Anselm College [135] | January 11–12, 2022 | 1,215 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 27% | 17% | 15% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [136] | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Corey Lewandowski
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Corey Lewandowski (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire [139] | February 18–22, 2021 | 1,676 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 34% | 3% | 9% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Corky Messner
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Corky Messner (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Tarrance Group (R) [142] [E] | November 16–18, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Kevin Smith
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Kevin Smith (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) [143] | June 22 – July 8, 2022 | 903 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
University of New Hampshire [67] | April 14–18, 2022 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 1% | 10% |
Saint Anselm College [134] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 34% | 10% | 12% |
Saint Anselm College [135] | January 11–12, 2022 | 1,215 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 24% | 17% | 17% |
Maggie Hassan vs. Chris Sununu
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Maggie Hassan (D) | Chris Sununu (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Anselm College [144] | October 20–22, 2021 | 1,323 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 41% | 46% | 9% | 4% |
University of New Hampshire [137] | October 14–18, 2021 | 979 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 6% |
Saint Anselm College [145] | August 24–26, 2021 | 1,855 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 41% | 49% | 6% | 4% |
University of New Hampshire [138] | July 15–19, 2021 | 1,540 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 49% | 1% | 2% |
Saint Anselm College [146] | March 4–6, 2021 | 871 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 47% | 7% | 6% |
University of New Hampshire [139] | February 18–22, 2021 | 1,676 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 5% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward (R) [147] [B] | October 17–19, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | – | 4% |
Phillips Academy [133] | April 4–8, 2022 | 533 (A) | ± 4.2% | 32% | 46% | – | 22% |
471 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 48% | – | 16% | ||
The Tarrance Group (R) [142] [E] | November 16–18, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
on if Maggie Hassan should be re-elected
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Yes | No | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Anselm College [66] | August 9–11, 2022 | 1,898 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Maggie Hassan | Donald C. Bolduc | |||||
1 | October 27, 2022 | NHPR | Josh Rogers, Amanda Gokee | [148] | P | P |
1 | November 1, 2022 | Saint Anselm College | Adam Sexton | [149] | P | P |
In the early months of the campaign, Hassan maintained a healthy lead in the polls. Polls began to tighten around September 2022 and by late October, a few polls even showed Bolduc with a narrow lead or had the candidates tied. Most pundits concurred that Hassan had a very slight edge and that the race would be extremely tight. However, Hassan won reelection by 9 points, a margin considerably wider than what was expected and one far greater than her 0.14 point plurality in 2016. Hassan's victory made her the first Democrat to win re-election to the class 3 Senate seat in New Hampshire history. This, along with Democrats' comfortable victories in New Hampshire's two House races, affirmed New Hampshire's transition from a closely contested swing state to a clearly Democratic leaning state at the federal level.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Maggie Hassan (incumbent) | 332,490 | 53.54% | +5.56% | |
Republican | Don Bolduc | 275,631 | 44.39% | −3.45% | |
Libertarian | Jeremy Kauffman | 12,390 | 2.00% | +0.30% | |
Write-in | 464 | 0.07% | – | ||
Total votes | 620,975 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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Hassan won both congressional districts. [152]
District | Hassan | Bolduc | Representative |
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1st | 53% | 45% | Chris Pappas |
2nd | 54% | 44% | Annie Kuster |
Partisan clients
Official campaign websites