2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2018 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2026  
Turnout52.38% Decrease2.svg
  Michelle Lujan Grisham 2021.jpg Mark Ronchetti.jpg
Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Howie Morales Ant Thornton
Popular vote370,168324,701
Percentage51.97%45.59%

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 New Mexico Gubernatorial Election by congressional district.svg
2022NMGovPrecinct.svg
Lujan Grisham:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ronchetti:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40-50%No votes:     

Governor before election

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elected Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections were held on June 7. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Democratic governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won a second term. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent was Republican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee in New Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1978 that it was a Democrat.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Organizations

Results

Gubernatorial Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent)125,238 100.0%
Total votes125,238 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated

Results

Lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Howie Morales (incumbent) 117,293 100.0%
Total votes117,293 100.0%

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Jay
Block
Rebecca
Dow
Mark
Ronchetti
Greg
Zanetti
Other
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics April 29 – May 19, 2022May 23, 202210.0%13.0%44.5%9.5%23.0%Ronchetti +31.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Jay
Block
Rebecca
Dow
Mark
Ronchetti
Greg
Zanetti
OtherUndecided
Research & Polling Inc. May 15–19, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%8%17%45%9%1% [lower-alpha 3] 21%
SurveyUSA Archived May 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine April 29 – May 7, 2022505 (LV)± 6.4%12%9%44%10%2% [lower-alpha 4] 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 1] January 31 – February 1, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%2%9%60%7%3%19%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Ronchetti
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Dow
30-40%
40-50%
50-60% 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dow
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Gubernatorial Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 68,658 58.41%
Republican Rebecca Dow 18,18515.47%
Republican Gregory Zanetti 16,39413.95%
Republican Jay Block12,46910.61%
Republican Ethel Maharg1,8451.57%
Total votes117,551 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Ant Thornton, aerospace engineer [4]
Eliminated in primary
  • Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education [4]
Eliminated at convention

Results

Results by county:
Thornton
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Muller-Aragon
50-60%
60-70% 2022 New Mexico lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Thornton
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Muller-Aragon
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ant Thornton 64,386 59.71%
Republican Peggy Muller-Aragon43,43840.29%
Total votes107,824 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew

Endorsements

Ginger G. Grider
Individuals

Results

Gubernatorial Libertarian primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie 980 86.12%
Libertarian Ginger G. Grider (write-in)15813.88%
Total votes1,138 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become the Libertarian nominee for New Mexico State Auditor. [17] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo, Jr.

Candidates

Declared
  • Efren Gallardo, Jr. [18]
Withdrew

Results

Lieutenant gubernatorial Libertarian primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Travis Sanchez 1,175 100.0%
Total votes1,175 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [19] Lean DJune 8, 2022
Inside Elections [20] Tilt DNovember 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Lean DJanuary 26, 2022
Politico [22] Lean DApril 1, 2022
RCP [23] TossupJune 20, 2022
Fox News [24] TossupAugust 22, 2022
538 [25] Likely DJuly 31, 2022
Elections Daily [26] Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Mark Ronchetti (R)
U.S. presidents
Federal officials
State officials
Sheriffs
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Mark
Ronchetti (R)
Karen
Bedonie (L)
Other
[lower-alpha 5]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 6–21, 2022October 21, 202247.0%43.5%9.5%Lujan Grisham +3.5
FiveThirtyEight June 14 – October 24, 2022October 24, 202248.7%41.1%4.9%5.3%Lujan Grisham +7.6
Average47.9%42.3%7.4%Lujan Grisham +5.6
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Mark
Ronchetti (R)
Karen
Bedonie (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%2%<1% [lower-alpha 6] 3%
50%48%2%<1% [lower-alpha 7]
Research & Polling Inc. [lower-alpha 8] October 20–27, 20221,254 (LV)± 2.8%50%42%3%5%
SurveyUSA October 21–26, 2022650 (LV)± 4.9%46%39%5%9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 19–21, 20221,077 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%4%4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 6–7, 2022806 (V)± 3.5%48%40%7%6%
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2022570 (LV)± 5.8%53%37%3%7%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 27–29, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%46%44%5%5%
SurveyUSA September 8–12, 2022558 (LV)± 5.7%48%36%5%11%
Emerson College September 8–11, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%43%3% [lower-alpha 9] 5%
Research & Polling Inc. [lower-alpha 8] August 19–25, 2022518 (LV)± 4.3%47%40%5%8%
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] June 11–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%5%3%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 13–14, 2022642 (V)± 3.9%45%42%9%5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 11–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%45%46%9%
SurveyUSA April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%43%11%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%42%16%
Hypothetical polling
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Jay
Block (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%37%16%
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Rebecca
Dow (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%36%20%
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Ethel
Maharg (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%32%19%
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Gregory
Zanetti (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%38%21%
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Cygnal (R) July 6–8, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%7%

Debates

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Michelle Lujan Grisham Mark Ronchetti Karen Bedonie
1Oct. 13, 2022 KOAT-TV Doug Fernandez Youtube PPN

Results

Swing by county

Legend
Democratic--+5-10%
Republican--+<5%
Republican--+5-10%
Republican--+10-15%
Republican--+15-20%
Republican--+20-25% 2022 New Mexico Governor swing by county margins.svg
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election [52]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
370,168 51.97% -5.23%
Republican
324,70145.59%+2.79%
Libertarian
  • Karen Bedonie
  • Efren Gallardo, Jr.
17,3872.44%N/A
Total votes712,256 100.0%
Turnout 714,79752.38%
Registered electors 1,364,559
Democratic hold

By county

By county
[53] Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat
Mark V Ronchetti
Republican
Karen E. Bedonie
Libertarian
Total
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes
Bernalillo 141,17757.55%99,63940.62%44841.83%245,300
Catron 47123.29%1,49373.84%582.87%2,022
Chaves 4,06324.89%11,88472.79%3792.32%16,326
Cibola 3,41849.75%3,23047.02%2223.23%6,870
Colfax 2,05341.82%2,71955.39%1372.79%4,909
Curry 2,51624.55%7,09269.20%6406.25%10,248
De Baca 16722.03%56674.67%253.30%758
Doña Ana 32,14755.69%23,21340.21%23644.10%57,724
Eddy 3,37620.20%12,99677.75%3442.06%16,716
Grant 6,18552.88%5,21744.60%2942.51%11,696
Guadalupe 91552.56%78445.03%422.41%1,741
Harding 12930.79%28066.83%102.39%419
Hidalgo 64539.72%91456.28%654.00%1,624
Lea 2,10415.02%11,54282.40%3622.58%14,008
Lincoln 2,33427.94%5,77869.16%2432.91%8,355
Los Alamos 6,19261.02%3,75136.96%2052.02%10,148
Luna 2,44541.52%3,25055.19%1943.29%5,889
McKinley 12,91066.27%5,79929.77%7723.96%19,481
Mora 1,58464.47%83233.86%411.67%2,457
Otero 5,85233.17%11,18263.38%6083.45%17,642
Quay 80326.53%2,10469.51%1203.96%3,027
Rio Arriba 8,03762.01%4,72936.49%1951.50%12,961
Roosevelt 1,08723.32%3,17768.15%3988.54%4,662
San Juan 12,84932.08%25,57463.85%16314.07%40,054
San Miguel 6,53168.98%2,78529.41%1521.61%9,468
Sandoval 30,78950.28%29,33747.91%11091.81%61,235
Santa Fe 52,44775.35%16,28723.40%8681.25%69,602
Sierra 1,78036.19%3,00161.01%1382.81%4,919
Socorro 2,95048.05%2,98848.66%2023.29%6,140
Taos 10,18876.33%2,96422.21%1961.47%13,348
Torrance 1,58828.64%3,71266.96%2444.40%5,544
Union 32821.87%1,10173.40%714.73%1,500
Valencia 10,10839.70%14,78158.05%5742.25%25,463
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Lujan Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat. [54]

DistrictLujan GrishamRonchettiRepresentative
1st 53.2%45.3% Melanie Stansbury
2nd 48.4%48.7% Yvette Herrell (117th Congress)
Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress)
3rd 53.9%43.7% Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Maharg with 1%
  4. Maharg with 2%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. "Someone else" with <1%
  7. "Someone else" with <1%
  8. 1 2 Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.
  9. "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 The poll was sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by Jeremy Gay, the Republican nominee for New Mexico Attorney General.
  3. This poll was sponsored by EDF Action
  4. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Zanetti's campaign

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Official campaign websites