2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

Last updated

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
Flag of Oklahoma.svg
  2020 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2026  
  Markwayne Mullin official Senate photo (cropped).jpg Kendra Horn official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Markwayne Mullin Kendra Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote710,643405,389
Percentage61.77%35.24%

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
OK-2022-sen-special-districts.svg
OK Senate Special 2022.svg
Mullin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Horn:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Jim Inhofe
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Markwayne Mullin
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat. [1] The candidate filing deadline was between April 13–15, 2022. [2]

Contents

This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023. [3] He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote to succeed Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma. [4] Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote. [5]

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon. [2] Mullin ultimately won the election. [6]

Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925. [7] Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.

Republican primary

On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma. [8] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement. [9]

Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement. [8] The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign. [10] By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat. [11] On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign. [12] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11. [13] Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15. [14]

Candidates

Former state house speaker T. W. Shannon lost the runoff Speaker Shannon.jpg
Former state house speaker T. W. Shannon lost the runoff

Nominee

State senator Nathan Dahm finished third in the initial primary Nathan-Dahm-1.jpg
State senator Nathan Dahm finished third in the initial primary

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in initial primary

Withdrew before primary

Declined

First round

Endorsements

Nathan Dahm
U.S. Senators
Newspapers
Organizations
Alex Gray (Withdrew)
Federal executive officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representative
County officials
Randy Grellner
Federal Executive officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • Phyllis Schlafly Eagles [42]
Luke Holland
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Political Action Committees
Markwayne Mullin
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger [47]
T. W. Shannon
Federal executive officials
State executive officials
State representatives
Tribal Officials
U.S. military generals
Individuals
Organizations
  • Association of Oklahoma General Contractors [51]
Scott Pruitt
Federal executive officials

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Nathan
Dahm
Luke
Holland
Markwayne
Mullin
Scott
Pruitt
T.W.
Shannon
1June 9, 2022News on 6Amanda Taylor Link PPAPP
2June 22, 2022News on 6Alex Cameron Link PPAPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Nathan
Dahm
Jessica
Garrison
Alex
Gray
Randy
Grellner
Luke
Holland
Adam
Holley
Markwayne
Mullin
Scott
Pruitt
T.W.
Shannon
OtherUndecided
SoonerPoll June 13–21, 2022350 (LV)± 5.2%8%2%1%5%39%2%13%30%
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%5%3%0%1%4%0%38%6%19%0% [lower-alpha 2] 22%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022306 (LV)± 5.6%6%0%0%1%3%1%38%3%16%0% [lower-alpha 2] 31%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022455 (LV)± 4.6%6%1%2%39%14%38%

Results

Initial primary results by county:
Mullin
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Shannon
30-40%
Grellner
20-30% 2022 United States Senate special Republican primary election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
Initial primary results by county:
  Mullin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Shannon
  •   30–40%
  Grellner
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results [53] [54]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Markwayne Mullin 156,087 43.62%
Republican T. W. Shannon 62,746 17.53%
Republican Nathan Dahm 42,67311.92%
Republican Luke Holland40,35311.28%
Republican Scott Pruitt 18,0525.04%
Republican Randy J. Grellner15,7944.41%
Republican Laura Moreno6,5971.84%
Republican Jessica Jean Garrison6,1141.71%
Republican Alex Gray (withdrew)3,0630.86%
Republican John F. Tompkins2,3320.65%
Republican Adam Holley1,8730.52%
Republican Michael Coibion1,2610.35%
Republican Paul Royse9000.25%
Total votes357,845 100.0%

Runoff

Endorsements

Markwayne Mullin
Executive branch officials
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger [47]
T. W. Shannon
Federal executive officials
State executive officials
State representatives
Tribal officials
U.S. military generals
Individuals
Organizations
  • Association of Oklahoma General Contractors [51]

Debates

2022 Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Markwayne
Mullin
T.W.
Shannon
1August 2, 2022News on 6 Link PP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Markwayne
Mullin
T.W.
Shannon
Undecided
SoonerPoll August 11–17, 2022322 (LV)± 5.4%53%47%0%
Amber Integrated (R) August 11–15, 2022684 (LV)± 3.8%49%31%20%
Battleground Connect (R) July 31 – August 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%46%38%16%
SoonerPoll July 25 – August 1, 2022383 (LV)± 5.0%63%35%1%

Results

Primary runoff results by county:
Mullin
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Shannon
50-60% 2022 United States Senate special Republican primary runoff election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
Primary runoff results by county:
  Mullin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shannon
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [57]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Markwayne Mullin 183,118 65.08%
Republican T. W. Shannon 98,24634.92%
Total votes281,364 100.0%

Democratic nomination

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination. [58]

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [61] Solid RFebruary 24, 2022
Inside Elections [62] Solid RFebruary 24, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [63] Safe RMarch 1, 2022
Politico [64] Solid RApril 1, 2022
RCP [65] Safe RFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News [66] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [67] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [68] Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist [69] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Markwayne Mullin (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger [47]
Organizations
Kendra Horn (D)
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Markwayne
Mullin (R)
Kendra
Horn (D)
Other
[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
270towin October 11 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202253.0%39.8%7.2%Mullin +13.2
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Markwayne
Mullin (R)
Kendra
Horn (D)
OtherUndecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022682 (LV)± 3.8%53%41%3% [lower-alpha 4] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%4% [lower-alpha 5] 2%
Emerson College October 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%56%35%4% [lower-alpha 6] 5%
59%36%5% [lower-alpha 7]
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022749 (LV)± 3.6%47%41%4% [lower-alpha 8] 8%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%5% [lower-alpha 9] 3%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022638 (LV)± 3.9%50%39%1% [lower-alpha 10] 10%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022301 (LV)51%42%3% [lower-alpha 11] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%11%
–(L) [upper-alpha 1] September 15–18, 20222,989 (LV)± 3.2%49%37%5% [lower-alpha 12] 9%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022402 (LV)± 4.9%52%40%4% [lower-alpha 13] 4%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022522 (RV)± 6.3%58%28%13%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma [86] [87]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Markwayne Mullin 710,643 61.77% -1.14%
Democratic Kendra Horn 405,38935.24%+2.49%
Libertarian Robert Murphy17,3861.51%-0.70%
Independent Ray Woods17,0631.48%N/A
Total votes1,150,481 100.0%
Turnout 1,150,48150.11%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Mullin won all 5 congressional districts. [88]

DistrictMullinHornRepresentative
1st 56.5%40.5% Kevin Hern
2nd 72.5%24.6% Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
3rd 67.3%29.6% Frank Lucas
4th 60.3%36.5% Tom Cole
5th 53.7%43.4% Stephanie Bice

See also

Notes

  1. This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 Coibion, Moreno, Royse, and Tompkins with 0%
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Woods (I) with 2%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  5. Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  6. Woods (I) with 3%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  7. Woods (I) with 4%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  8. Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  9. Murphy (L) with 3%; Woods (I) with 2%
  10. Woods (I) with 1%; Murphy (L) with <1%
  11. Woods with 3%
  12. Murphy with 4%; Woods with 1%
  13. Woods with 4%

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