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Mullin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Horn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Oklahoma |
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The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat. [1] The candidate filing deadline was between April 13 and 15, 2022. [2]
This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023. [3] He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote to succeed Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma. [4] Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote. [5]
Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon. [2] Mullin ultimately won the election. [6]
Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925. [7] Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.
On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma. [8] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement. [9]
Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement. [8] The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign. [10] By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat. [11] On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign. [12] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11. [13] Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15. [14]
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Nathan Dahm | Luke Holland | Markwayne Mullin | Scott Pruitt | T.W. Shannon | |||||
1 | June 9, 2022 | News on 6 | Amanda Taylor | Link | P | P | A | P | P |
2 | June 22, 2022 | News on 6 | Alex Cameron | Link | P | P | A | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Nathan Dahm | Jessica Garrison | Alex Gray | Randy Grellner | Luke Holland | Adam Holley | Markwayne Mullin | Scott Pruitt | T.W. Shannon | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SoonerPoll [53] | June 13–21, 2022 | 350 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 8% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | – | 39% | 2% | 13% | – | 30% |
Amber Integrated (R) [54] | June 6–9, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 38% | 6% | 19% | 0% [b] | 22% |
SoonerPoll [55] | April 25 – May 11, 2022 | 306 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 0% [b] | 31% |
Amber Integrated (R) [56] | March 24–27, 2022 | 455 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 2% | – | 39% | – | 14% | – | 38% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 156,087 | 43.62% | |
Republican | T. W. Shannon | 62,746 | 17.53% | |
Republican | Nathan Dahm | 42,673 | 11.92% | |
Republican | Luke Holland | 40,353 | 11.28% | |
Republican | Scott Pruitt | 18,052 | 5.04% | |
Republican | Randy Grellner | 15,794 | 4.41% | |
Republican | Laura Moreno | 6,597 | 1.84% | |
Republican | Jessica Jean Garrison | 6,114 | 1.71% | |
Republican | Alex Gray (withdrew) | 3,063 | 0.86% | |
Republican | John F. Tompkins | 2,332 | 0.65% | |
Republican | Adam Holley | 1,873 | 0.52% | |
Republican | Michael Coibion | 1,261 | 0.35% | |
Republican | Paul Royse | 900 | 0.25% | |
Total votes | 357,845 | 100.0% |
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Markwayne Mullin | T.W. Shannon | ||||||||
1 | August 2, 2022 | News on 6 | Link | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Markwayne Mullin | T.W. Shannon | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SoonerPoll [61] | August 11–17, 2022 | 322 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 53% | 47% | 0% |
Amber Integrated (R) [62] | August 11–15, 2022 | 684 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 31% | 20% |
Battleground Connect (R) [63] | July 31 – August 1, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
SoonerPoll [64] | July 25 – August 1, 2022 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 63% | 35% | 1% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 183,118 | 65.08% | |
Republican | T. W. Shannon | 98,246 | 34.92% | |
Total votes | 281,364 | 100.0% |
Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination. [66]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [69] | Solid R | February 24, 2022 |
Inside Elections [70] | Solid R | February 24, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [71] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
Politico [72] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [73] | Safe R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News [74] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [75] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
538 [76] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist [77] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Markwayne Mullin (R) | Kendra Horn (D) | Other [c] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270towin [94] | October 11 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 53.0% | 39.8% | 7.2% | Mullin +13.2 |
Graphical summary
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Markwayne Mullin (R) | Kendra Horn (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ascend Action (R) [95] | November 5–6, 2022 | 682 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 41% | 3% [d] | 4% |
Amber Integrated (R) [96] | October 26–28, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 4% [e] | 2% |
Emerson College [97] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 4% [f] | 5% |
59% | 36% | 5% [g] | – | ||||
Ascend Action (R) [98] | October 24–28, 2022 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 41% | 4% [h] | 8% |
Amber Integrated (R) [99] | October 13–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | 5% [i] | 3% |
Ascend Action (R) [100] | October 10–12, 2022 | 638 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 39% | 1% [j] | 10% |
SoonerPoll [101] | October 3–6, 2022 | 301 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | 3% [k] | 4% |
Amber Integrated (R) [102] | September 19–21, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
–(L) [A] | September 15–18, 2022 | 2,989 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 37% | 5% [l] | 9% |
SoonerPoll [103] | September 2–7, 2022 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 40% | 4% [m] | 4% |
Echelon Insights [104] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 522 (RV) | ± 6.3% | 58% | 28% | – | 13% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Markwayne Mullin | 710,643 | 61.77% | −1.14% | |
Democratic | Kendra Horn | 405,389 | 35.24% | +2.49% | |
Libertarian | Robert Murphy | 17,386 | 1.51% | −0.70% | |
Independent | Ray Woods | 17,063 | 1.48% | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,150,481 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | 1,150,481 | 50.11% | |||
Registered electors | 2,295,906 | ||||
Republican hold |
Mullin won all 5 congressional districts. [107]
District | Mullin | Horn | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 56.5% | 40.5% | Kevin Hern |
2nd | 72.5% | 24.6% | Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress) |
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress) | |||
3rd | 67.3% | 29.6% | Frank Lucas |
4th | 60.3% | 36.5% | Tom Cole |
5th | 53.8% | 43.4% | Stephanie Bice |
Murphy is a retired data tech from OU. . . He is a veteran from the U.S. Marines who worked as a carpenter from 1978-1983.
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