2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election31
Seats won40
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote677,857526,460
Percentage55.94%43.45%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.52%Decrease2.svg 3.05%

2022IAUSHouse Holds and Gains.svg
Iowa 2022 House.svg
2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg
     Republican hold     Republican gain

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. These were the first congressional elections held in Iowa after the 2020 redistricting cycle.

Contents

Republicans won all four House seats, making this the first time since 1994 that Democrats had been completely shut out of Iowa's House delegation. This also marks the first time since 1956 that there are no Democrats in Iowa's Congressional delegation.

Background

In the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped the 1st and 2nd congressional districts while holding the 4th, while Democrats only managed to hold onto the 3rd. Iowa is considered to be an important state in the 2022 midterm elections, as Republicans only needed a net gain of five seats to flip the House of Representatives, and the 3rd district had one of the closest House elections won by a Democrat in 2020. At an event in 2021, United States Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), claimed that the "road to the majority...comes through Iowa." [1] However, Democrats remained optimistic, with former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer saying she "couldn't be more excited" about the roster of Iowa Democrats running for Congress in 2022. [2]

District 1

2022 Iowa's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2020
2024  
  Mariannette Miller-Meeks, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg Christina Bohannan (3x4).jpg
Nominee Mariannette Miller-Meeks Christina Bohannan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote162,947142,173
Percentage53.3%46.6%

IA-2022-1.svg
Results by county
Miller-Meeks:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Bohannan:     70–80%

U.S. Representative before election

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Republican

After redistricting, most of the old 2nd district became the 1st district. The reconfigured 1st covers southeastern Iowa, and includes Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The 1st district was based in northeastern Iowa, and included the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. First-term Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sought reelection in this district. Miller-Meeks flipped the 2nd district with 49.9% of the vote in 2020, defeating Democratic nominee Rita Hart by just six votes out of more than 394,000 cast, a margin of 0.002%. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Kyle Kuehl, business owner [6]

Endorsements

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Primary results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent)41,260 98.7
Write-in 5461.3
Total votes41,806 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Christina Bohannan

Federal officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Primary results

Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Christina Bohannan 37,475 99.7
Write-in 1100.3
Total votes37,585 100.0

General election

Cartogram of Iowa's First Congressional District 2022 Cartogram IA-01.png
Cartogram of Iowa's First Congressional District

Debate

2022 Iowa's 1st congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Mariannette Miller-Meeks Christina Bohannan
1Sep. 26, 2022 Iowa PBS Kay Henderson [29] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Lean ROctober 5, 2022
Inside Elections [31] Lean RSeptember 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [32] Likely RSeptember 7, 2022
Politico [33] Lean RAugust 12, 2022
RCP [34] Lean RSeptember 1, 2022
Fox News [35] Lean ROctober 18, 2022
DDHQ [36] Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [37] Likely RNovember 8, 2022
The Economist [38] Lean RSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mariannette
Miller-Meeks (R)
Christina
Bohannan (D)
Undecided
Change Research (D) [39] [A] June 30 – July 4, 2022375 (LV)± 5.1%39%38%22%
Public Policy Polling (D) [40] [B] April 5–6, 2022534 (V)± 3.4%43%47%15%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co. [41] October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%50%41%1%8%
Selzer & Co. [42] July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%50%40%10%

Results

2022 Iowa's 1st congressional district election [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent)162,947 53.3
Democratic Christina Bohannan 142,17346.6
Write-in 2600.1
Total votes305,380 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2022 Iowa's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2020
2024  
  Ashley Hinson, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg Liz Mathis (3x4).jpg
Nominee Ashley Hinson Liz Mathis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote172,181145,940
Percentage54.1%45.8%

Iowa's 2nd Congressional District 2022 results.svg
Results by county
Hinson:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Mathis:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Ashley Hinson
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ashley Hinson
Republican

After redistricting, most of the old 1st district became the 2nd district. The reconfigured 2nd is located in northeastern Iowa and includes Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Mason City. Freshman Republican Ashley Hinson, who flipped the district with 51.2% of the vote in 2020, sought reelection in the 2nd.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Ashley Hinson

Federal officials

Statewide officials

Individuals

Organizations

Primary results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ashley Hinson (incumbent) 39,897 99.3
Write-in 2840.7
Total votes40,181 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Declined

Endorsements

Liz Mathis

Federal officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Primary results

Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Liz Mathis 40,737 99.6
Write-in 1500.4
Total votes40,887 100.0

General election

Cartogram of Iowa's Second Congressional District 2022 Cartogram IA-02.png
Cartogram of Iowa's Second Congressional District

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Lean ROctober 25, 2022
Inside Elections [31] Tilt ROctober 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [32] Likely RSeptember 7, 2022
Politico [33] Lean RAugust 12, 2022
RCP [34] Likely RSeptember 1, 2022
Fox News [35] Likely RAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ [36] Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [37] Likely RSeptember 7, 2022
The Economist [38] Lean RSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ashley
Hinson (R)
Liz
Mathis (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [55] [C] July 19–20, 2022594 (V)± 4.0%44%44%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [56] [C] February 2–3, 2022623 (V)± 3.9%43%42%15%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co. [41] October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%46%48%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [55] [C] July 19–20, 2022594 (V)± 4.0%50%43%7%
Selzer & Co. [42] July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%54%42%5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [56] [C] February 2–3, 2022623 (V)± 3.9%45%42%13%

Results

2022 Iowa's 2nd congressional district election [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ashley Hinson (incumbent) 172,181 54.1
Democratic Liz Mathis 145,94045.8
Write-in 2780.1
Total votes318,399 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2022 Iowa's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2020
2024  
  Rep. Zach Nunn official photo, 118th Congress (3x4).jpg Cindy Axne, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Zach Nunn Cindy Axne
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote156,262154,117
Percentage50.2%49.6%

Iowa's 3rd Congressional District 2022 results.svg
Results by county
Nunn:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Axne:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Cindy Axne
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Zach Nunn
Republican

Before redistricting, the 3rd district encompassed southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The new 3rd is still anchored in Des Moines, but now covers south-central Iowa. The incumbent was Democrat Cindy Axne, who was re-elected with 48.9% of the vote in 2020. [3]

During the campaign, a research firm contracted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee inappropriately obtained the military records of then-candidate Zach Nunn. [57]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent) 47,710 99.5
Write-in 2520.5
Total votes47,962 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Nicole Hasso, financial planner [73]
  • Gary Leffler, construction consultant [74]
Withdrawn

Endorsements

Nicole Hasso

U.S. Senators

Debates and forums

2022 IA-03 Republican primary debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
HassoLeffler Nunn
1May 3, 2022 Polk County Republican Party
WHO-DT
Dave Price Youtube (Part 1)
YouTube (Part 2)
PPP
2 [82] May 14, 2022 KCCI Stacey Horst and Laura Terrell Youtube [83] PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mary Ann
Hanusa
Nicole
Hasso
Zach
Nunn
Undecided
Moore Information Group (R) [84] [D] September 9, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.0%13%3%24%60%

Primary results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Zach Nunn 30,502 65.8
Republican Nicole Hasso8,99119.4
Republican Gary Leffler6,80014.7
Write-in 890.2
Total votes46,382 100.0

General election

Cartogram of Iowa's Third Congressional District 2022 Cartogram IA-03.png
Cartogram of Iowa's Third Congressional District

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Lean R (flip)September 1, 2022
Inside Elections [31] Tilt R (flip)November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [32] Lean R (flip)September 7, 2022
Politico [33] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2022
RCP [34] Lean R (flip)September 1, 2022
Fox News [35] Lean R (flip)August 22, 2022
DDHQ [36] TossupSeptember 23, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [37] TossupNovember 8, 2022
The Economist [38] TossupSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Cindy
Axne (D)
Zach
Nunn (R)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight [85] July 9 – October 25, 2022November 1, 202244.3%46.4%9.3%Nunn +2.1

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Cindy
Axne (D)
Zach
Nunn (R)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R) [86] [D] October 24–25, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%44%46%10%
Moore Information Group (R) [87] [D] September 21–25, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%44%46%10%
Impact Research (D) [88] [E] September 7–11, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%5%
RMG Research [89] July 29 – August 5, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%41%49%2%8%
Moore Information Group (R) [90] [F] July 9–11, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%43%43%14%
Moore Information Group (R) [84] [D] September 9, 2021– (LV)46%42%12%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co. [41] October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%49%48%0%3%
Selzer & Co. [42] July 10–13, 2022150 (LV)± 8.3%47%44%9%

Results

2022 Iowa's 3rd congressional district election [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Zach Nunn 156,262 50.2
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent)154,11749.6
Write-in 5340.2
Total votes310,913 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 4

2022 Iowa's 4th congressional district election
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2020
2024  
  Randy Feenstra, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Randy Feenstra Ryan Melton
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote186,46784,230
Percentage67.3%30.4%

Iowa's 4th Congressional District 2022 results.svg
Results by county
Feenstra:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Melton:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Randy Feenstra
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Randy Feenstra
Republican

Before redistricting, the 4th district was based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The redrawn 4th also covers much of southwestern Iowa, including Council Bluffs. The incumbent was Republican Randy Feenstra, who was elected with 62.0% of the vote in 2020. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Primary results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Randy Feenstra (incumbent) 51,271 98.9
Write-in 5961.1
Total votes51,867 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Declined

Primary results

Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ryan Melton 20,794 99.7
Write-in 690.3
Total votes20,863 100.0

Other parties and independents

Candidates

  • Bryan Jack Holder, photographer and perennial candidate (Liberty)

Independents

Candidates

General election

Cartogram of Iowa's Fourth Congressional District 2022 Cartogram IA-04.png
Cartogram of Iowa's Fourth Congressional District

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Solid RSeptember 1, 2022
Inside Elections [31] Solid RSeptember 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [32] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022
Politico [33] Solid RApril 5, 2022
RCP [34] Safe RSeptember 1, 2022
Fox News [35] Solid RAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ [36] Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
FiveThirtyEight [37] Solid RSeptember 7, 2022
The Economist [38] Safe RSeptember 28, 2022

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co. [41] October 9–12, 2022155 (LV)± 8.4%62%33%1%4%
Selzer & Co. [42] July 10–13, 2022149 (LV)± 8.3%55%36%8%

Results

2022 Iowa's 4th congressional district election [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Randy Feenstra (incumbent) 186,467 67.3
Democratic Ryan Melton84,23030.4
Liberty Caucus Bryan Jack Holder6,0352.2
Write-in 2760.1
Total votes277,008 100.0
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

  1. This poll was sponsored by Michael Franken's campaign for U.S. Senate
  2. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Bohannan
  3. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Mathis's campaign
  4. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Nunn's campaign
  5. Poll sponsored by Axne's campaign
  6. Poll sponsored jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Nunn's campaign committee

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References

  1. "Iowa GOP sets sight on 2022 election to flip house and senate majority". KGAN . August 28, 2021.
  2. "Democratic State Senator Liz Mathis running for U.S. Congress". The Daily Iowan . July 27, 2021.
  3. 1 2 3 "General Election - 2020 Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Shillcock, George. "Mariannete Miller-Meeks announces re-election bid, blasts Joe Biden". www.press-citizen.com. Iowa City Press-Citizen. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
  5. "Will Axne and Miller-Meeks face off in new 3rd district?". www.kcci.com. kcci.com. October 29, 2021. Retrieved October 29, 2021.
  6. Doster, Meg. "Kyle Kuehl, Republican candidate for Iowa's 1st Congressional District, drops out of race as petition is rejected by state panel". www.dailyiowan.com. Student Publications. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  7. 1 2 Dunlap, Natalie (November 19, 2021). "Miller-Meeks endorsed by other Republican members of Iowa's congressional delegation". The Daily Iowan . Retrieved November 19, 2021.
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates