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All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Republican hold Republican gain
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Elections in Iowa |
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. These were the first congressional elections held in Iowa after the 2020 redistricting cycle.
Republicans won all four House seats, making this the first time since 1994 that Democrats have been completely shut out of Iowa's House delegation.
In the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped the 1st and 2nd congressional districts while holding the 4th, while Democrats only managed to hold onto the 3rd. Iowa is considered to be an important state in the 2022 midterm elections, as Republicans only needed a net gain of five seats to flip the House of Representatives, and the 3rd district had one of the closest House elections won by a Democrat in 2020. At an event in 2021, United States Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), claimed that the "road to the majority...comes through Iowa." [1] However, Democrats remained optimistic, with former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer saying she "couldn't be more excited" about the roster of Iowa Democrats running for Congress in 2022. [2]
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Results by county Miller-Meeks: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bohannan: 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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After redistricting, most of the old 2nd district became the 1st district. The reconfigured 1st covers southeastern Iowa, and includes Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The 1st district was based in northeastern Iowa, and included the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. First-term Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sought reelection in this district. Miller-Meeks flipped the 2nd district with 49.9% of the vote in 2020, defeating Democratic nominee Rita Hart by just six votes out of more than 394,000 cast, a margin of 0.002%. [3]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent) | 41,260 | 98.7 | |
Write-in | 546 | 1.3 | ||
Total votes | 41,806 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Christina Bohannan | 37,475 | 99.7 | |
Write-in | 110 | 0.3 | ||
Total votes | 37,585 | 100.0 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Christina Bohannan | |||||
1 | Sep. 26, 2022 | Iowa PBS | Kay Henderson | YouTube | P | P |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [29] | Lean R | October 5, 2022 |
Inside Elections [30] | Lean R | September 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
Politico [32] | Lean R | August 12, 2022 |
RCP [33] | Lean R | September 1, 2022 |
Fox News [34] | Lean R | October 18, 2022 |
DDHQ [35] | Solid R | September 6, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [36] | Likely R | November 8, 2022 |
The Economist [37] | Lean R | September 28, 2022 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | Christina Bohannan (D) | Undecided |
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Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | June 30 – July 4, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 39% | 38% | 22% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 2] | April 5–6, 2022 | 534 (V) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selzer & Co. | October 9–12, 2022 | 155 (LV) | ± 8.4% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 8% |
Selzer & Co. | July 10–13, 2022 | 149 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent) | 162,947 | 53.3 | |
Democratic | Christina Bohannan | 142,173 | 46.6 | |
Write-in | 260 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 305,380 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold | ||||
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Results by county Hinson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Mathis: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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After redistricting, most of the old 1st district became the 2nd district. The reconfigured 2nd is located in northeastern Iowa and includes Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Mason City. Freshman Republican Ashley Hinson, who flipped the district with 51.2% of the vote in 2020, sought reelection in the 2nd.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ashley Hinson (incumbent) | 39,897 | 99.3 | |
Write-in | 284 | 0.7 | ||
Total votes | 40,181 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Liz Mathis | 40,737 | 99.6 | |
Write-in | 150 | 0.4 | ||
Total votes | 40,887 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [29] | Lean R | October 25, 2022 |
Inside Elections [30] | Tilt R | October 21, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
Politico [32] | Lean R | August 12, 2022 |
RCP [33] | Likely R | September 1, 2022 |
Fox News [34] | Likely R | August 22, 2022 |
DDHQ [35] | Solid R | September 6, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [36] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
The Economist [37] | Lean R | September 28, 2022 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ashley Hinson (R) | Liz Mathis (D) | Undecided |
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Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | July 19–20, 2022 | 594 (V) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | February 2–3, 2022 | 623 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
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Selzer & Co. | October 9–12, 2022 | 155 (LV) | ± 8.4% | 46% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | July 19–20, 2022 | 594 (V) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
Selzer & Co. | July 10–13, 2022 | 149 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 54% | 42% | – | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | February 2–3, 2022 | 623 (V) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Ashley Hinson (incumbent) | 172,181 | 54.1 | |
Democratic | Liz Mathis | 145,940 | 45.8 | |
Write-in | 278 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 318,399 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold | ||||
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Results by county Nunn: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Axne: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Before redistricting, the 3rd district encompassed southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The new 3rd is still anchored in Des Moines, but now covers south-central Iowa. The incumbent was Democrat Cindy Axne, who was re-elected with 48.9% of the vote in 2020. [3]
During the campaign, a research firm contracted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee inappropriately obtained the military records of then-candidate Zach Nunn. [50]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Cindy Axne (incumbent) | 47,710 | 99.5 | |
Write-in | 252 | 0.5 | ||
Total votes | 47,962 | 100.0 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Hasso | Leffler | Nunn | |||||
1 [75] | May 14, 2022 | KCCI | Stacey Horst and Laura Terrell | Youtube | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mary Ann Hanusa | Nicole Hasso | Zach Nunn | Undecided |
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Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 4] | September 9, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 13% | 3% | 24% | 60% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Zach Nunn | 30,502 | 65.8 | |
Republican | Nicole Hasso | 8,991 | 19.4 | |
Republican | Gary Leffler | 6,800 | 14.7 | |
Write-in | 89 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 46,382 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [29] | Lean R (flip) | September 1, 2022 |
Inside Elections [30] | Tilt R (flip) | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] | Lean R (flip) | September 7, 2022 |
Politico [32] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2022 |
RCP [33] | Lean R (flip) | September 1, 2022 |
Fox News [34] | Lean R (flip) | August 22, 2022 |
DDHQ [35] | Tossup | September 23, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [36] | Tossup | November 8, 2022 |
The Economist [37] | Tossup | September 28, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cindy Axne (D) | Zach Nunn (R) | Undecided [lower-alpha 2] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight | July 9 – October 25, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 44.3% | 46.4% | 9.3% | Nunn +2.1 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Cindy Axne (D) | Zach Nunn (R) | Other | Undecided |
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Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 4] | October 24–25, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 4] | September 21–25, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 5] | September 7–11, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
RMG Research | July 29 – August 5, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] | July 9–11, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 4] | September 9, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
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Selzer & Co. | October 9–12, 2022 | 155 (LV) | ± 8.4% | 49% | 48% | 0% | 3% |
Selzer & Co. | July 10–13, 2022 | 150 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Zach Nunn | 156,262 | 50.2 | |
Democratic | Cindy Axne (incumbent) | 154,117 | 49.6 | |
Write-in | 534 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 310,913 | 100.0 | ||
Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
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Results by county Feenstra: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Melton: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Before redistricting, the 4th district was based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The redrawn 4th also covers much of southwestern Iowa, including Council Bluffs. The incumbent was Republican Randy Feenstra, who was elected with 62.0% of the vote in 2020. [3]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Randy Feenstra (incumbent) | 51,271 | 98.9 | |
Write-in | 596 | 1.1 | ||
Total votes | 51,867 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Ryan Melton | 20,794 | 99.7 | |
Write-in | 69 | 0.3 | ||
Total votes | 20,863 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [29] | Solid R | September 1, 2022 |
Inside Elections [30] | Solid R | September 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Politico [32] | Solid R | April 5, 2022 |
RCP [33] | Safe R | September 1, 2022 |
Fox News [34] | Solid R | August 22, 2022 |
DDHQ [35] | Solid R | September 6, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [36] | Solid R | September 7, 2022 |
The Economist [37] | Safe R | September 28, 2022 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
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Selzer & Co. | October 9–12, 2022 | 155 (LV) | ± 8.4% | 62% | 33% | 1% | 4% |
Selzer & Co. | July 10–13, 2022 | 149 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 55% | 36% | – | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Randy Feenstra (incumbent) | 186,467 | 67.3 | |
Democratic | Ryan Melton | 84,230 | 30.4 | |
Liberty Caucus | Bryan Jack Holder | 6,035 | 2.2 | |
Write-in | 276 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 277,008 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold | ||||
Randall Lee Feenstra is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for Iowa's 4th congressional district. The district covers the western border of the state, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs, but stretches as far east as Story County, Franklin County, and Marshall County, including Ames.
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Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks is an American physician and politician serving as a U.S. representative since 2021, representing Iowa's 1st congressional district. Her district, numbered as the 2nd district in her first term, includes most of Iowa's southeastern quadrant, including Davenport, Bettendorf, Burlington, and Iowa City. A member of the Republican Party, Miller-Meeks served as Iowa state senator for the 41st district from 2019 to 2021.
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