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Rubio: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Demings: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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Government |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history. [1]
The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election. [2] [3] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination.
Despite some predicting a close race early, [4] Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%. According to exit polls, Rubio won 64% of White voters, 56% of Latino voters, and 9% of African American voters. [5]
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Individuals
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ricardo De La Fuente | Val Demings | Brian Rush | William Sanchez | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of North Florida [89] | August 8–12, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 2% | 80% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Val Demings | 1,263,706 | 84.3 | |
Democratic | Brian Rush | 94,185 | 6.3 | |
Democratic | William Sanchez | 84,576 | 5.6 | |
Democratic | Ricardo De La Fuente | 56,749 | 3.8 | |
Total votes | 1,499,216 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [100] | Likely R | October 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections [101] | Likely R | August 25, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [102] | Likely R | August 24, 2022 |
Politico [103] | Likely R | November 3, 2022 |
RCP [104] | Lean R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News [105] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [106] | Likely R | July 20, 2022 |
538 [107] | Solid R | November 4, 2022 |
The Economist [108] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marco Rubio (R) | Val Demings (D) | Undecided [b] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [126] | October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.4% | 43.6% | 4.0% | Rubio +8.8 |
FiveThirtyEight [127] | September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.3% | 43.5% | 4.2% | Rubio +8.8 |
270towin [128] | November 4–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 6.0% | Rubio +9.2 |
Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Rubio +8.9 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Val Demings (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. [129] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 42% | 2% [c] | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) [130] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,436 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 43% | 2% [d] | – |
Amber Integrated (R) [131] | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 4% [e] | 7% |
Civiqs [132] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 45% | 2% [f] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [133] | November 1, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 1% [g] | 3% |
Siena College [134] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 2% [h] | 4% |
Victory Insights [135] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
Florida State University/YouGov [136] | October 20–31, 2022 | 1,117 (RV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – |
University of North Florida [137] | October 17–24, 2022 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 54% | 43% | <1% [i] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [138] | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,251 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 2% [j] | 2% |
Florida Atlantic University [139] | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3% [k] | 7% |
RMG Research (R) [140] [A] | October 10–13, 2022 | 685 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [141] | September 26–28, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 2% | 10% |
Siena College [142] | September 18–25, 2022 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 2% [l] | 9% |
Civiqs [143] | September 17–20, 2022 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | 3% [m] | 2% |
Suffolk University [144] | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 4% [n] | 9% |
Sachs Media [145] | September 10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [146] [B] | September 9–10, 2022 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% |
563 (LV) | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | |||
Echelon Insights [147] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [148] | September 5–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) [149] | August 29 – September 4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [150] | August 24–31, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [151] [C] | August 25–30, 2022 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Impact Research (D) [152] [D] | August 12–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [153] [B] | August 12–14, 2022 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 14% |
610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% | ||
University of North Florida [154] | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | 7% | 2% |
Change Research (D) [155] [E] | August 2–5, 2022 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [156] [C] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [153] [B] | July 9, 2022 | 906 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
732 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
428 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D) [157] [F] | May 26–27, 2022 | 655 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Phillips Academy [158] | May 7–9, 2022 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 36% | – | 30% |
Moore Information Group (R) [159] | March 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | 8% [o] | 12% |
Saint Leo University [160] | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [153] [B] | March 4, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 26% | – | 29% |
893 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% | ||
446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 35% | – | 16% | ||
University of North Florida [161] | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [162] | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Suffolk University [163] | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 41% | 0% | 10% |
St. Pete Polls [164] | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [165] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 3% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 10% | ||
Saint Leo University [166] | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 29% | – | 25% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [167] [G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [168] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 37% | 3% | 10% | ||
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) [169] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls [170] | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) [171] [H] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [172] | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) [173] | June 27, 2021 | 681 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Aramis Ayala (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) [174] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – |
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Alan Grayson (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [165] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | 4% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 10% | ||
VCreek/AMG (R) [167] [G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [168] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 12% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Stephanie Murphy (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) [174] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – |
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Marco Rubio (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon [175] | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Data for Progress (D) [176] [I] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Marco Rubio | Val Demings | |||||
1 | Oct. 18, 2022 | Palm Beach State College | Todd McDermott | [177] | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 4,474,847 | 57.68% | +5.70% | |
Democratic | Val Demings | 3,201,522 | 41.27% | −3.04% | |
Libertarian | Dennis Misigoy | 32,177 | 0.41% | −1.71% | |
Independent | Steven B. Grant | 31,816 | 0.41% | N/A | |
Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 17,385 | 0.22% | N/A | |
Write-in | 267 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
Total votes | 7,758,126 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts. [179]
District | Rubio | Demings | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 72% | 27% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 60% | 39% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 62% | 37% | Kat Cammack |
4th | 59% | 40% | Aaron Bean |
5th | 64% | 35% | John Rutherford |
6th | 66% | 33% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 57% | 42% | Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress) |
Cory Mills (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 63% | 36% | Bill Posey |
9th | 48% | 51% | Darren Soto |
10th | 39% | 60% | Val Demings (117th Congress) |
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress) | |||
11th | 61% | 38% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 68% | 31% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 56% | 42% | Anna Paulina Luna |
14th | 45% | 53% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 57% | 41% | Laurel Lee |
16th | 60% | 39% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 63% | 35% | Greg Steube |
18th | 68% | 31% | Scott Franklin |
19th | 68% | 31% | Byron Donalds |
20th | 28% | 71% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
21st | 61% | 39% | Brian Mast |
22nd | 46% | 53% | Lois Frankel |
23rd | 48% | 51% | Jared Moskowitz |
24th | 29% | 69% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 45% | 54% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
26th | 70% | 30% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
27th | 57% | 42% | María Elvira Salazar |
28th | 63% | 37% | Carlos A. Giménez |
Demographic subgroup | Demings | Rubio | No answer | % of voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 37 | 62 | 1 | 49 |
Women | 48 | 51 | 1 | 51 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 57 | 41 | 2 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 58 | 39 | 2 | 4 |
30–39 years old | 55 | 43 | N/A | 13 |
40–49 years old | 41 | 58 | 1 | 12 |
50–64 years old | 38 | 62 | N/A | 32 |
65 and older | 37 | 62 | 1 | 33 |
Race | ||||
White | 35 | 64 | 1 | 64 |
Black | 90 | 9 | N/A | 11 |
Latino | 41 | 56 | 2 | 21 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 28 | 71 | N/A | 32 |
White women | 43 | 57 | 2 | 32 |
Black men | 89 | 11 | 1 | 5 |
Black women | 92 | 8 | N/A | 6 |
Latino men | 42 | 55 | 2 | 10 |
Latina women | 41 | 57 | 1 | 11 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 35 | 63 | 2 | 15 |
Some college education | 42 | 58 | 1 | 25 |
Associate degree | 42 | 57 | 2 | 19 |
Bachelor's degree | 44 | 54 | 1 | 24 |
Advanced degree | 48 | 51 | 1 | 17 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 28 |
Republicans | 3 | 97 | 1 | 42 |
Independents | 48 | 49 | 2 | 30 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 91 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
Moderates | 57 | 41 | 1 | 39 |
Conservatives | 7 | 93 | 2 | 42 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 40 | 60 | 1 | 59 |
Unmarried | 50 | 48 | 2 | 41 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 33 | 66 | 1 | 30 |
Married women | 46 | 53 | 1 | 29 |
Unmarried men | 48 | 51 | 3 | 18 |
Unmarried women | 52 | 47 | 2 | 23 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 42 | 58 | 4 | 11 |
No | 44 | 55 | N/A | 89 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Crime | 32 | 66 | 2 | 10 |
Inflation | 28 | 72 | 1 | 39 |
Gun policy | 63 | 36 | N/A | 10 |
Immigration | 12 | 88 | N/A | 10 |
Abortion | 81 | 18 | N/A | 24 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 45 | 54 | 1 | 46 |
Suburban | 42 | 57 | 2 | 44 |
Rural | 31 | 68 | N/A | 10 |
Source: CNN [180] |
Partisan clients
Marco Antonio Rubio is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from Florida, a seat he has held since 2011. A member of the Republican Party, he served as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives from 2006 to 2008. Rubio sought the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 2016, winning the presidential primaries in Minnesota, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, but was ultimately unsuccessful.
The 2010 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Darren Michael Soto is an American attorney and Democratic politician from Kissimmee, Florida, who is the U.S. representative for Florida's 9th district.
Valdez Venita Demings is an American politician and former police officer who served as U.S. representative for Florida's 10th congressional district from 2017 to 2023. The district covered most of the western half of Orlando and includes much of the area around Orlando's resort parks. It includes many of Orlando's western suburbs, including Apopka and Winter Garden. From 2007 to 2011, Demings served as the first female chief of the Orlando Police Department, closing a 27-year career in law enforcement. She has also been first lady of Orange County, Florida, since December 4, 2018, when her husband Jerry Demings was sworn in as County Mayor.
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The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 27 U.S. representatives from Florida, one from each of the state's 27 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, and various state and local elections.
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.
The 2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide and defeated the Democratic Party nominee, Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since 1994.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from Florida, one from each of the state's 28 congressional districts. The primary was held on August 23, 2022. The elections coincided with the 2022 United States Senate election in Florida, other elections to the House of Representatives, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Missouri, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.
The 2022 Florida Attorney General election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Florida Attorney General. Incumbent Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody was reelected for a second term, defeating Democratic challenger Aramis Ayala by a 21-point margin.
The 2022 Florida Chief Financial Officer election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the Chief Financial Officer of Florida. Incumbent Republican CFO Jimmy Patronis won re-election to a second term with over 59% of the vote and a margin of victory of 19 percentage points.
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